Dave Erfle – Gold’s Parabolic Move, Copper’s Quiet Breakout, and Portfolio Positioning
Dave Erfle, Editor of the Junior Miner Junky joins me to break down the broad rally in precious metals and copper, with gold now holding above $3,000, silver over $34, and copper quietly pushing above $5.20/lb. We highlight gold’s parabolic breakout, noting it has risen in 14 of the last 18 months, and warns that technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest the market is getting long in the tooth – even as momentum remains strong.
We discuss the potential for a healthy consolidation versus a blow-off move, driven by catalysts like Friday’s PCE inflation data or next week’s tariff decisions. Dave also outlines how AI and Bitcoin are fading as capital rotates into the gold sector, with miners outperforming the metal and quality juniors beginning to break out.
On copper, Dave links the recent price spike to tariff-related demand and highlights Arizona Sonoran as a standout name. While cautious about chasing, he’s adding selective copper exposure.
Dave explains he’s still in “be right, sit tight” mode but monitoring key levels like $43 on GDX and $55 on Newmont for signs of broader institutional interest. He’s also evaluating positions where share structures have weakened, preparing to shift into under-the-radar names with better upside potential.
Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter.
At +31% copper is up twice as much as silver and more than twice as much as gold YTD. And with 4 days left this month/quarter it is breaking out vs the S&P 500.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER%3A%24SPX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23341553307&a=1919499313&r=1742940460853&cmd=print
In 2021 copper topped at 65% above its 200 week MA. Today that level is 6.80 and rising.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=9&mn=3&dy=0&id=p99791169834&a=1638725405
Matthew, I always thought it was the silver bugs that were bat sh*t crazy, but the copper nuts are much worse. DT
Are they? Can you give me an example because I don’t think I know any nutty copper fans.
Michael Oliver, Eric Sprott, and Moriarity are much more bullish now on silver than gold or copper, and they are crazy like a fox.
Those guys WILL be right, I have no doubts about that. The puzzle pieces are in place except for silver finally breaking out versus gold and that will probably happen when an important low nearby for the stock market. Gold looks like it still has another push higher versus silver which implies that stocks probably have another push lower.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9436128816c&a=895534628&r=1742952555178&cmd=print
Your chart shows that Silver has been acting as an industrial metal and tracing out a silhouette of the S&P500, it should make it easy to spot on that chart when Silver regains it’s monetary value and breaks away.
In case you missed it here’s one you might like showing Silver:Gold as it pertains to IPT (really silver stocks in general):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=18&mn=3&dy=0&id=p88205822886&a=1937611801&r=1742877059433&cmd=print
Markets Need More than Rate Cuts to Recover
Daniel Lacalle • Mises Wire – Mises Institute (03/25/2025)
“The consensus narrative tells you that markets are weak because of Trump’s tariffs. However, that is a typical excuse that makes no sense. If tariffs were the cause of concern, markets would have tanked in 2016 and in 2021. Remember that Biden maintained and increased all of Trump’s tariffs. Between 2016 and 2024, the tariffs imposed by the European Union and China on the United States were much larger than levies against them. However, you never read or heard that the EU and China tariffs were going to destroy the economy or lead to massive inflation.”
“The mainstream consensus narrative always wants you to believe that tariffs are fine if imposed by socialist countries and evil if imposed by the United States. However, if the market was alarmed by tariffs and the disastrous impact they may have on the economy, German and Japanese bond yields would not have soared. Instead, they would have plummeted as investors sought refuge. Furthermore, if the world feared a US economic disaster, Treasury bond yields would not have declined.”
“German and Japanese bond yields would be declining and US yields rising if that were the case. What is happening is the opposite. The German 10-year bond yield has risen 21% in 2025, and the Japanese equivalent has soared 34%. The US 10-year Treasury yield has declined 5.6%.”
“What is really going on? Many market participants are addicted to money printing and dovish central banks. In fact, two generations of traders have only seen rising debt, liquidity injections, and negative real rates, which helped justify increasingly demanding equity and risk asset price valuations. Thus, the market greeted bad economic data with optimism, anticipating another round of monetary laughing gas.”
“The reason why markets are so volatile is because few know what to do when inflation remains persistent. The Fed panicked twice in 2024 and conducted a misguided dovish policy…”
“Follow the money printer. Many market participants are scared of persistent inflation but aim capital flows to the markets that may benefit from more money printing, as is the European case, and stimulus plans, like China. However, this is a dangerous bet…”
“Market participants in the United States may be used to insane spending, debt, and printing as the reasons to buy. However, the situation for the US economy was unsustainable. If the administration does not cut the deficit and the excesses of the public sector, the stagflation risk we have discussed numerous times will be a reality.”
“Market participants will need more than rate cuts. We need to see real rates falling, inflation under control, and the deficit slashed. The Fed’s policy mistake happened in 2024. They have created the current turmoil. ”
https://mises.org/mises-wire/markets-need-more-rate-cuts-recover
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1IKVcVRr/
DOLLAR : Morning Update
It Is Official – Copper Just Made New All-Time Highs
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (03-26-2025)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/it-is-official-copper-just-made-new
Excelsior, what are you hearing about NFGC? Are you buying or selling? Thanks.
Hi there Bonzo. I’ve never owned New Found Gold before, as I always felt it was way overvalued, but at current prices it is looking like a better value for accumulation.
I posted a big reply back for Marty and Dan yesterday and will just repost those comment here:
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We’ve noted many times that the valuation for New Found Gold, when it was up at CAD$1.5-$2 billion in 2021 was simply insane and the market herd was getting way over its skis on that kind of a pre-resource, and pre-economic study valuation. It was valued more than a number of large producers with active mines and 10 million ounces of gold in the ground. That never made sense.
The retail punters expectations for 10-20 million ounces of gold were just as nutty as when they expected that same thing for both Great Bear and Wallbridge. Even though both of those companies had 4+ million ounces at initial resources of gold (G.B. under Kinross for that resource) of gold, the market was way off as usual and in blue-sky fantasy land. If Great Bear had released their resource before Kinross drilled another 250,000 meters, then they would have had about 3 million ounces of gold and the market would have had a similar tantrum.
But because Great Bear was acquired with an unknown resource, they are seen as one of the biggest success stories today. It would have turned out very differently if Kinross hadn’t paid such a premium at the time and with those metals prices around $1800. BTW – those 4 million ounce deposits that G.B/Kinross and Wallbridge delineated were phenomenal by the way. Look what we saw when people assumed 3-5 million for Amex and they only had 1.6 million ounces. This selloff in New Found Gold because they have 2 million ounces is no different, and just the market finally equilibrating the valuation that has been bloated for 4 years.
Yes, there have been impressive drill hits for many years now by NFG, and their team has done a great job with exploration, which should be commended. Over the past few years as more and more drilling data has come in and the share price and market cap has gradually deflated, it was finally returning to Earth and finding gravity and reality.
Today’s valuation in the CAD$300 million is a much more sane valuation, and is still way more than many other 2 million ounce deposits. Wallbridge has over 5 million ounces now and is valued at CAD $72 million for example. Integra has 9 million ounces, 3 projects, and one of them is a producing gold mine where they are now generating revenues and they are only valued at CAD $320 million. When you compare Integra to New Found Gold, then ITR is still way undervalued, and NFG could still come down some…
New Found Gold has been a cult retail drillplay for a number of years. As a result of all that prior pumping from 2021 it has remained an extremely overvalued explorer for the last handful of years and has been gradually coming back down to Earth over time.
Their valuation is still a bit rich compared to many other high-quality multimillion ounce deposits that are trading for a tenth to a third of their in-situ value at $10-$30 an ounce in the ground versus NFG’s $110+. So even in the pool of advanced explorers and developers I just see much better value out there to pick from. Granted, NFG is at a more attractive valuation after yesterday’s and today’s price action, where things are getting closer to reality.
NFG is finally closer to a fairly valued market cap versus known data and bankable resources. If they keep doing solid work then they can grow the resource from here to 3-4 million ounces over time, with more infill drilling, but the concern with deposits in Newfoundland remains the continuity of the deposit and how much all that extra drilling will dilute the stock. That is still a success, but now grounded and growing, versus overinflated and sinking. Ever Upward!
Someone over at Ceo.ca posted this Stockwatch summary, and they make the same point about how many different deposits all have to tie together making the open pit scenario more challenging than a uniform well-distributed continuous mineral deposit. They’ve had to do a massive amount of drilling just to get the resource to 2 million ounces, and while there is clearly some good drill hits and the potential to expand it, the question will be how many more meters beyond the 700,000 meters already drilled and how much more money will need to be raised to make that happen?
>> There are some good points in it worthy of consideration:
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Here’s Stockwatch’s summary of the MRE:
“Collin Kettell and Eric Sprott’s New Found Gold Corp. (NFG) began Monday strong but it sagged as the day dragged on. The stock ended the session down 20 cents to $2.45 on 2.15 million shares — its highest volume in over three years — as a bad case of jitteritis appeared to set in. After the close, the diagnosis was confirmed, as the company revealed its long-awaited resource estimate for its Queensway project in north-central Newfoundland. In all, the maiden calculation lists 18 million tonnes indicated at 2.4 grams of gold per tonne and 10.7 million tonnes inferred at 1.77 grams per tonne, exactly two million ounces of gold in all.”
“And so, after well over six years of exploration — after the overworked diamonds at the end of untold drill bits endured over 600,000 metres of torture — New Found Gold has an open-pittable resource of just 1.61 million ounces spread across 26.3 million tonnes of rock. That rock spans no less than 23 different zones at Queensway, from the Honeypot and 1744 zones at the northeastern end of the resource to Knob at the southwestern end. And so, the declared resource spans an area a few hundred metres wide but over six kilometres long — nightmarish dimensions for a hypothetical open-pit mine.”
“Yes, weary New Found Gold shareholder, this includes all three of the zones that delivered the bonanza-grade intercepts, several of which yielded three-digit grades across two-digit intervals, in the spring of 2021: Keats, Lotto and Golden Joint. And about those high grades: While the company cheers that there is indeed a high-grade core, pointing to the 887,000 indicated ounces residing within 3.85 million tonnes of ore, the average grade is a pedestrian 7.16 grams of gold per tonne. Another 133,000 ounces are inferred within an additional 993,000 tonnes of high-grade rock, but that ore grades just 4.16 grams per tonne.”
“Based on the limited data, most of that high-grade material appears to reside at Keats, Lotto and Golden Joint as expected, and also at Iceberg. Much of the higher-grade rock does span a smaller area, presumably covering a more workable pit shell, but that leaves the bulk of the far-flung resource — about 13.45 million tonnes indicated and eight million tonnes inferred — with a grade of just 0.88 gram of gold per tonne, about 610,000 ounces spread across the full six-kilometre-long strike.”
“New Found Gold’s two new executives stepped up to cheer the news. Keith Boyle, who replaced Mr. Kettell as chief executive officer in January, said that the initial resource estimate — the first evaluation of gold mineralization at Queensway — “marks a pivotal moment for the company.” With the estimate in hand, Mr. Boyle says he and his crew can advance the project, first with the completion of a preliminary economic assessment before the end of June, and then — note the newborn weasel — “potentially on to prefeasibility and feasibility.”
Melissa Render, president of New Found Gold since mid-December, enthused that the estimate validates the company’s record of systematic exploration leading to multiple discoveries at Queensway. Further, she cheers, it “supports that we are on the path to defining a significant gold deposit” in a favourable jurisdiction — seemingly conceding what investors fear — that the currently defined calculation is not yet significant.
And so, with the estimate “located on just a fraction of [New Found Gold’s] highly prospective landholdings,” Ms. Render and her crew recite the standard promoter’s refrain for disquieting news, applauding that they “see excellent potential to grow the project and unlock value both for shareholders and nearby communities.”
Unfortunately, much of the value held by shareholders has evaporated since the heady days of 2021, when New Found Gold had a market value topping $2-billion. Since then, the company spent over $220-million on exploration — mainly drilling — but it began 2025 with a market capitalization of just $560-million. More of that value went poof today, as New Found Gold shed 66 cents to $1.59 on 9.96 million shares on the news.
New Found Gold: Bonanza or Buyer Beware?
By Ian Burron / First Published: February 26, 2025
“In September 2024 a shortseller, Iceberg Research, released a report criticizing NFG for misleading investors by, among other things, ‘smearing’ short high-grade intercepts into longer, lower grade intercepts. This supposedly creates the impression of mineralization being more continuous, and more minable, than it really is. Iceberg claims that NFG has published confusing geologic cross sections and deliberately delayed preparing a resource estimate to conceal a lack of continuity.”
“Three things stand out when studying Queensway: structural complexity, the nugget effect, and how data drill data is reported.
“Queensway is clearly a structurally complex deposit. Information released by NFG contains many references to uncertainty in true width and orientation of gold-bearing veins due to crosscutting infill veins. It seems that there’s an early, very gold-rich vein system that has been crosscut, chopped up, and perhaps partially consumed by generation(s) of later veins that contain little to no gold. Finding the remnants of these high-grade veins won’t be easy.”
“The bedrock stripping projects are particularly telling. From August-November 2023 NFG excavated a 200 x 70 m area of the high-grade segment of the Keats-Baseline Fault Zone. A year later the detailed mapping and sampling project was still ongoing. For stripping such a large area to be necessary, and for mapping and sampling it to take so long, the ore zone must be very complex indeed.”
https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/new-found-gold-bonanza-or-buyer-beware/
Here is a link to that short report that was referenced in the article above. I always take a short report with a grain of salt, just like I do with a pump piece, as there are biases at work, but for those trying to collect a wholistic picture it’s worth looking at all the angles of the debate.
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New Found Gold Corp. (NYSE: $NFGC, TSX: $NFG): Lies, Misrepresentations, and a Professional Stock Promoter
Iceberg Research – September 19, 2024
I was wide awake for that move, selling weekly at the money puts on FCX all the way up. Sure there are better ways to profit from the move but…..
Nicely done Terry. FCX is a good way of playing the move in copper.
I have been lucky in trading lately; I seem to have a sixth sense that tells me to step aside and sell. Yesterday in the morning I liquidated my NFG, and today I had the luck to get rid of my LEM, both just before their valuations crashed. LOL! DT 🤣🤣🤣