Weekend Show – Doc & Mike Larson – Technical Analysis On Gold’s Pullback, Dissecting The Trump Trade For Commodities, Equities and Bitcoin
Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show. This weekend’s show is packed with analysis on gold and gold stocks, energy markets, small cap stocks, Bitcoin and the major markets. All considering what potential policies Trump enacts while President.
This week we are attending the New Orleans Investment Conference. If you will be there please drop us a line – fleck@kereport.com and shad@kereport.com. If you can’t make it but want us to sit down with any company exhibiting at the conference please email us. Click here to find out which companies and speakers will be in attendance.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc, joins us to analyze the precious metals correction, including the underperformance of mining stocks versus the metals, sentiment shifts to risk-on investments, Gold vs cryptocurrencies, specific PM stock opportunities and technical insight.
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Segment 3 and 4 – Mike Larson, Editor in Chief at MoneyShow, wraps up the Weekend Show discussing the market’s reaction to the Trump presidency and the resulting ‘Trump trade.’ The discussion covers various asset classes and sectors including Bitcoin, small caps, financials, crude oil, and precious metals. We explore the implications of potential policy changes, particularly around tariffs, energy production, and taxes, and their impact on domestic versus multinational companies.
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Click here to find out about the upcoming MoneyShow conferences.
DT, I’ve started to pick up some eloro, however, I believe you will still be able to purchase it in the future for less then $.50. I believe NFC is a classical example of the Lassonde curve where everybody gets juiced about a junior when it hits a big discovery and the stock takes off but over time comes back to earth to challenge its’ previous lows. Then when they get into the development phase it tends to take off again on its’ next move higher. I now own some NFC and feel you will have a chance to purchase it for between $1.00 and $1.50.
Hi Richard, thanks for the feedback, much appreciated! DT
Doc is always guessing, he has been wrong.
It’s always, well we will know better in a month or so, guesswork.
What happened to my comment?
Free speech, you don’t want to hurt Doc’s feelings. Can’t handle the truth.
Michael Oliver has it right with momentum analysis.
Good show. Thanks KER!
Much appreciated Charles, and thanks for listening to the show.
Are there any resource stocks that have your attention at present?
Hi Ex – I haven’t really picked up anything yet. I sold UUUU and am waiting to pick up some more MTA. Trying to be patient and letting things settle down a bit before jumping on anything.
Thanks for the response back Charles.
Personally, I’m hanging on to my UUUU position due to the bullish supply/demand set up in both uranium and rare earths. Their rare earth acquisition confused the market a while back, but they’ve been working on rare earth processing the last few years. I believe we’ll see that take on more importance over the next couple years and positively impact their revenues in a meaningful way. They are really the only rare earths play I have in the portfolio.
As for MTA, yeah….Metalla went from overvalued a couple of years back to now undervalued, right as many key royalties are set to start paying significantly in 2025 and 2026. I was considering adding a bit more to my position but prefer to stash some profits from winning trades in individual mining stocks over into royalty stocks. Unfortunately the last couple weeks have been brutal in most PM stocks…so it may be a bit of a wait until the Q1 Run…
Hopefully my purchasing of royalties over explorers will be the catalysts to get the explorers going LOL!! I own plenty of those too and probably have been too concentrated in those over cash flow generators. I am now in the “show me the money” stage of hopelessness for explorers, but will likely focus more money there once I see them get going. I don’t plan on being out of UUUU long. Will probably jump back in for another trade at some point but feel like it was over done in the short term and a good opportunity to raise cash.
Charles, I believe your switch will indeed be the catalyst we need! FNV for example has been on quarterly sell signals vs GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, etc. for the last year and is about to sell vs IPT. I say “about to sell” based on the quarterly but it topped vs IPT a year ago and has been on various sell signals ever since. It fell 83% vs IPT in 2016 and 71% in 2020 and its potential drop this times looks far greater to me. Obviously FNV is less risky in many ways but holding a few juniors makes a lot of sense here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNV%3AIPT.V&p=Q&yr=16&mn=11&dy=0&id=p32356230635&a=1832873019&r=1731872047730&cmd=print
MTA:IPT weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MTA%3AIPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08101751812&a=1832879621
I believe IPT is providing a glimpse of what’s to come for juniors in general.
Thanks for your input Matthew. I like IPT a lot and have plenty. Always room for more and I might pick up some more. I like the fact that they are a miner with exploration upside and not just an explorer.
Of course I agree but the production is nice too!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&yr=16&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91274983333&a=581706450&r=1731893515794&cmd=print
Lol, scratch that I misread your comment 😣
Easy to misread as I didn’t phrase it the best, but glad you caught my drift! 👌😊
While DOC’s prognosis might be true looking at current momentum oscillators and chart action but I’d rather look at the bigger picture. His sentiments were similar during 2016 correction in miners when Trump won the election. I guess time will tell.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/X9Qf9jrv-Silver-Yearly/
Ah yes…the potential double cup and handle breakout in silver at $50…
Gold’s recent high of 2800 was clearly not on par with the highs of ’06, ’08, or ’11; not even close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0737583295c&a=1567444541&r=1731788060318&cmd=print
Matthew, Good chart work 👍
Thanks CaliJoe
The 10 year yield looks ready for a break…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p49572732335&a=1749933636
Hello Doc nice to hear from you again. I like to know your view on oil over this next year with possible recession, too much oil on supply side vs global demand. Also maybe you can touch on natural gas prices with more pipelines and more global exports from USA will we see better more growth and higher prices over next year or two.
Thanks
Gold exceeded its top price pivot for the year by 19 percent which is just a hair greater than it achieved in 2020. So does that mean a new high is over 3 years away? Not a chance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p49965419435&a=877923791
Based on some daily momentum oversold readings gold and silver just might have seen their lows already, at least short term. The target of that great looking cup and handle that formed since 2011 has been met which is no doubt part of the reason for the sharpness of the selloff.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p24257181552&a=1824687628
Based on yearly closes silver is very likely to activate its massive cup and handle this year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=Y&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74215645101&a=1589893027&r=1731791825162&cmd=print
Silver has been capped by the same big fork resistance for the last 4 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9997388486c&a=895534628&r=1731790830259&cmd=print
The herd still doesn’t seem to understand that the 40 year bull market in bonds is over much less the implications of it being over. There’s sure to be plenty of head scratching as the monetary metals and their miners begin to pull capital away from everyone’s favorite holdings.
Yearly XAU vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=Y&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9735590824c&a=1431137417&r=1731792497661&cmd=print
SLV vs SPY looks good for a low on this 195 minute chart:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3ASPY&p=195&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=t9101122486c&a=1832654140&r=1731793662061&cmd=print
IPT is up 120% vs NEM since September.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ANEM&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p65111843606&a=1832654607
What about May – September? Since May it is down
Merger and Acquisition Opportunities In The Metals Resource Stocks – Part 6
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – Substack – (11/16/2024)
– Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) (ASX: RIO) (NYSE: RIO) / Arcadium Lithium (NYSE: ALTM) (ASX: LTM)
– AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) (ASX: AGG) / Centamin PLC (TSX: CEE) (OTCPK: CELTF)
– Greenridge Exploration Inc. (CSE: GXP | FRA: HW3) / ALX Resources Corp. (TSXV: AL) (OTC: ALXEF)
– NexGold Mining Corp. (TSXV: NEXG; OTCQX: NXGCF) / Signal Gold Inc. (TSX: SGNL; OTCQB: SGNLF)
– Minera Alamos Inc. (TSXV: MAI) (OTCQX: MAIFF) / Sabre Gold Mines Corp. (TSX: SGLD) (OTCQB: SGLDF)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/merger-and-acquisition-opportunities-047
Columbian Drug Cartel is now in The Gold Mining business, this is something I have thought could happen at any time. When the price of silver ramps up look for more of the same in countries where the gangs are entrenched, I don’t want to name names we all know where they are. DT
Warren B is all out! Beware just like in 1929, The Big Boys got out before the reckoning! DT
At https://ceo.ca/ipt, Nov 16 entry, the updated SILJ stocks list now includes Impact Silver (ISVLF). Possibly the reason for the stock’s price bump.
Great point Clarke. I kept looking at the trading action the middle of last week, scratching my head as to all those outsized moves in both directions and was thinking it didn’t make any sense…. until folks brought up the SILJ rebalancing.
The SILJ rebalance positioning the middle of last week had some silver stocks as big winners with increased volume as new additions (like Impact Silver, AbraSilver, Aftermath Silver, etc… ) and other stocks that got hit with big selling (like Santacruz Silver, Andean PMs, Guanajuato Silver, etc…).
On Friday, many stocks that had been sold down as they were minimized or purged from SILJ had countertrend rallies, and stocks that had already rallied had further rallies, so it was a somewhat encouraging day.
Here are 2 tables someone posted on ceo.ca showing what the SILJ weightings were in April moving into November on the left side, and then the new weighting rankings in November with Hecla moving into pole position as the heaviest weighted component.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1jji3tj-SILJ%20changes.png
It is still odd that so many royalty companies (most heavily weighted to gold) are inside of a “junior silver miners” ETF, or why there are companies that are extremely weighted to gold production in there in the first place…and they just added even more gold companies. (?)
Conversely, it makes no sense why they minimized the size of some legit silver producers and developers and increased the gold exposure in this ETF. Whoever is managing SILJ and picking the positions and weightings should be taken out back and flogged for many of these allocation decisions if it truly is a junior silver miners ETF.
That is why it is still best to #BuildYourOwnETF
Bitcoin shot up over $93,000 to all-time highs on Wednesday, and then pulled back some the balance of the week. It is still up near all-time highs at $90,900 at the time of this post.
People that proclaimed that the March move to $73,000 in Bitcoin was the final peak were flat out wrong.
At this rate, those HODL’ers that have anticipated 6-digit Bitcoin may actually see their vision come to fruition in the not-so-distant future.
I read something from Andrew Prince today where:
In 2017, there were about 1,000 Bitcoin millionaires.
Today, there are over 170,000 Bitcoin millionaires.
I’ve not verified his figures with a 3rd party source for accuracy, but he put this out via print through Banyan Hill publishing over the weekend.
Anecdotally, I went to the sauna the other night, and some guy was talking to some people in the locker and said he was retired at 50 years old. These other guys asked him what he did and he said he invested in a lot of Bitcoin when they were a fraction of where they were now and sold some of them recently to completely retire. He mentioned his purchase price and how many Bitcoins he bought, and the mental math I did had it coming out to around $2.3 million in gains (providing he held onto all of them the whole time and sold them all at once).
From the sound of it this guy wasn’t really doing any other investing other the cryptos. Locker room talk…. Ha!
Bitcoin continues as a great trading vehicle,
but the D’Artagnan of Money is Stability.
Medium of Exchange, Store of Value,
Unit of Account . . . Not Enough!
Big news for the nuclear power and uranium sectors dropped on Friday…
________________________________________________________________________________________
Russia restricts enriched uranium exports to the United States
Reuters – November 15, 2024
“Russia, the world’s largest supplier of enriched uranium, said on Friday that it had imposed temporary restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States, a symbolic tit-for-tat move after the U.S. banned Russian uranium imports.”
“Russia holds about 44% of the world’s uranium enrichment capacity and about 35% of U.S. nuclear fuel imports used to come from Russia, according to the U.S. office of nuclear energy.”
“But in May, President Joe Biden signed into law a ban on Russian enriched uranium, though the U.S. also has the ability to issue waivers if there are supply concerns.”
“Russia’s government said a decision on imposing temporary restrictions on exports to the United States had been signed, though it said there were exceptions.”
“The decision was made on the instructions of the president in response to the restriction and ban imposed by the United States,” the Russian government said.
US Unveils Plan to Triple Nuclear Power by 2050 as Demand Soars
Biden White House aims to see capacity rise by 200 gigawatts
President-elect Trump has offered support for new reactors
Jennifer A Dlouhy – Bloomberg – November 12, 2024
“Under a road map being unveiled Tuesday, the US would deploy an additional 200 gigawatts of nuclear energy capacity by mid-century through the construction of new reactors, plant restarts and upgrades to existing facilities. In the short term, the White House aims to have 35 gigawatts of new capacity operating in just over a decade.”
Kazatomprom shareholders approve uranium supplies to China’s CNNC Overseas and CNUC
Interfax – Nov 15
“Shareholders in Kazatomprom voted at extraordinary general meeting in favor of deals to supply uranium to CNNC Overseas Limited and China National Uranium Corporation Limited (CNUC).”
“Kazakhstan’s national nuclear company said in a press release that a spot contract would be concluded for the sale and purchase of natural uranium concentrates between Kazatomprom and CNNC Overseas and a long-term agreement for the sale and purchase of natural uranium concentrates between Kazatomprom and CNUC.”
“The transaction will contribute to expanding bilateral cooperation between Kazakhstan and China, ensuring a stable supply of uranium from Kazakhstan to China facilitating zero-carbon transition and further strengthening the role of Kazakhstan as a key player in the global nuclear energy market,” the press release says.
So just to recap here….
The US unveiled the plan to triple Nuclear Power by 2050, as did about 20 other countries at the COP 28 meeting earlier in the year.
Russia just restricted enriched uranium exports to the United States, as a retaliation to our sanctions against Russian enriched uranium fuel. (Not a great thing for domestic utility companies as Russia has dibs on most of the enriching capabilities).
The hope was the Cameco would get more uranium from the JV with Kazatomprom in Kazakhstan, but they announced a 17% miss in production to meet the JV agreement expectations.
>> Meanwhile, Kazatomprom has plenty of uranium to give to the China National Uranium Corporation.
The uranium is staying in the East, and only some is going to make it’s way West.
This highlights the huge need for processing capabilities in the West to move U308 to UF6 and then to enriched uranium fuel….. I think there are only 2 western friendly processing companies at present, which is going to put a real crimp on nuclear fuel supplies.
This underscores the premium that US uranium producers are likely to receive as this perfect storm of tailwinds come together to underpin uranium pricing, but also the need for domestic supplies…
#GotUraniumStocks?
Remember This ? “Megatons to Megawatts was lauded as a success; enough uranium to arm around 20,000 Russian warheads was turned into fuel that has helped power American homes and businesses, even to this day.”
There are no big deposits in US and it’s already been combed over pretty good.
Well, there are big US deposits, but they are lower-grade, and more importantly in areas it will be difficult to get social license like New Mexico, Utah, and South Dakota. The best states in the US for uranium extraction remain Wyoming and Texas.
Companies like UEC, Ur-Energy, Energy Fuels, and enCore Energy were up bigly today as expected.
Aussie U miners are up on Tuesday but not as much as the ones you mentioned.
Nice to read so many comments all relating to making money. 👍
Matthew thanks for reply to question few days back. Did read it but didn’t say anything there as it was dated. I’m quite happy with my holdings but am still nervous that a general market downturn will suck everything down with it
Thanks to those that confirmed the Impact move was ETF related.
Still looking to get back into uranium but am fully invested and waiting to flip profits into them.
Crypto related. Still not an owner of any Solana but my Covid down time research still has it pegged as best of the rest
Love not holding anything other than Brixton that could suffer from tax loss selling.
Looking forward to the magna rerating heading towards 2025
Appreciate everyone’s input. Cory and Shad keep the great interviews coming. 2024 has been a great year for the wolf but still think it’s 2 inning so to speak so expecting 2025 to be stellar as well. Cheers.
It’s not just uranium that will be restricted to the west, there are a lot of critical minerals we need that China has and if Trump starts putting tariffs on their goods, we will in all likelihood see more restrictions other than uranium. DT
Hi Richard, two stocks that I wanted to buy the last time we talked were Eloro Resources and New Found Gold. I picked up some Eloro Resources for 80 cents recently, but I am still watching NFG to see if it drops further.
The juniors are really difficult to play at this juncture, do you have any thoughts on either stocks, after listening to your interview I gather you are waiting and buying into the producers and not cherry picking the juniors at this juncture. This still is tax loss season, and that makes it harder to buy and judge entry points. DT