Weekend Show – Dave Erfle – Recapping This Week’s Precious Metals Conference, The Market Is Telling You Which Stocks Are Higher Quality
In this KE Report Weekend Show Dave Erfle and I report live from the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado. We discuss the bifurcated market for metals stocks, with clear winners vs struggling companies, and explore investment strategies for investors building out portfolios of gold equities.
Topics include the mood of the conference, the importance of picking the right stocks, challenges in raising capital, and potential opportunities in both producing and development stage companies. We also touch on the state of copper plays and the broader outlook for the precious metals sector.
We hope you all have a great weekend and thank you for tuning in!
Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter.
Reports Of Value Investing’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (09/14/2024)
Opportunities In Gold Explorers and Developers – Part 2 (Beaver Creek recap and Goliath Resources)
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – 09-14-2024
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/opportunities-in-gold-explorers-and-010
Ex, just finished watching Todd Sachs latest, 9/14/2024, a revolutionary story about property tax fraud and how arbitrarily both school districts and municipalities assessors are illegally jacking up assessments in total disregard for state and federal law, likely to be happening nationwide but for sure in this Texas jurisdiction. A MUST WATCH FOR ANYONE THATS A HOMEOWNER
SACHS REALTY: Property tax fraud ( YouTube) 9/14/2024
Thanks for the heads up Marty. Todd is a sharp guy and I’m still working on getting him on the KE Report to give us an update on the real estate investing sector. Cheers!
Extremely interesting phenomenon……..the more things get bullish for metals the less comments are posted here. lol 😂
Perhaps everyone is just busy like myself. I’ll be jumping around as I try to remember all the things I wanted to comment on.
Lake , I get your frustration with account values being off. With TD they use bid after the close to do account value and with a lot of jrs the bid can be quite below the actual closing value. The rationale I was given was that that is the value since that’s what I can sell it for. Crazy since the next day before the open the real bids return higher.
DT. I Have a few for you and please don’t take offence of anything as I appreciate that you have opinions and share them but some I agree with and some I don’t.
Electionwise we are both waiting to see how some by elections unfold and perhaps even an actual federal election sooner then we had expected.
Regarding a Great Depression you seem to be leaning towards. I think you’ve definitely soon your biased towards negativity with the expectations of a Canadian RE crash for yrs that’s just not happening. You also expect this huge crash in Nvidia. I have to ask you as I’m the first to admit to having no clue if the rosy future outlook for AI expansion and therefore future nvidia profits are remotely feasible, are you basing your call on it just seeming like another bubble or are you well versed in technology???
As for your comment about most of us here being sheep and just following others instead of finding our own stock picks well that I can’t deny. Why would I spend so much time trying to find that needle in the haystack (and who has that time really other than maybe Ex 😉) when people like HH and Doc Jones find great value plays and share them. I do share if I come across something interesting and do give input when warranted. That’s what this site is all about and I value every guest and individual who contributes to this fine site that Cory and Shad run to perfection..
On to stock and commodity talk….. get to brag that I bought my final tranche of Magna the day before it was halted. What a gem that’s turning out to be and still way undervalued…Doc Jones other big holding Emerita looks set to follow Magna higher and the year of the wolf is definitely 2024 with 2025 possibly being a solid follow through. 🤑
I know it gets held down but still shocked silver is where it is in relation to gold. Matthew it’s killing me that Impact and Kootenay are where they are still. Patience is necessary I know but man is my patience being tested there.
Rambled on to long based on time. Need to deliver a hutch to my daughter in Barrie. As always thanks to all contributors and good luck to all as the metals look great going forwards.
Wolf:
Thanks for the comments. I am hoping that if the miners start a consistent upward pattern, broker games won’t matter as the constant adjustment of a few closing prices downward will be overcome by events. Since they have no intent in correcting the issue, I can only believe it is an overnight cash flow initiative or attempt for some naked short gains and/or technical direction influencing stunt.
Yes..I added to Magna a few weeks before the recent news. I wrote on Doc’s site in response to some posters being interested in keeping up with Doc’s trading activity, that it is posted under the profile area of Doc’s ceo.ca account. That’s where I noted his predominant trade over the last 6 months was Magna. Of course, Doc also has made site visits to both Emo and Magna and has published a lot of data relevant to both.
I have also been tracking Michael Gentile’s current activity and have picked up some Canterra Minerals, Nican, Radisson, Roscan, Group Eleven, Arizona Metals and North Isle over the last 6 months.
Only over the last two trading days have I gotten an indication that any of them will go up. Once there is sustained movement, if ever, I think I will be able to weed out my holdings.
Hoping for a bull market in miners just like physical, but only managed money can make it happen. (I think Schwab owns TD and probably using the same programs)
Ex triggered thoughts about another one that I have picked up recently and that is Juggernaut. Crescat also follows that one and it has had some early-on good drill results. The kicker is its location near Goliath.
Indeed Lakedweller2. Yes, Juggernaut is a related company to Goliath as far as the directors and as far as location. We’re working to get the CEO Dan on the show for an introduction to the company for the KER audience. Stay tuned…
Hi there Wolfster. Glad you popped in to the KER blog with some thoughts and sharing some ideas. Thanks for kind words on the podcast, as we do work hard to keep bringing on interesting companies and thought leaders in the sector and abroad.
Way to go on the Magna trade man! They are moving into production via acquisition and were already doing some toll-milling. I saw Jason and Paul briefly last week and they were pretty jazzed about it.
I just got back into Kootenay recently, and think they could really be onto something big with those drill hits coming out of the D-Vein, and to a lessor extent the F-Vein. I ran into Jim a few times at Beaver Creek last week and had some discussions on why they remain encouraged about this year’s exploration program.
As for Impact Silver… I remain a big fan, and laid out my thesis in a somewhat recent substack article:
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/opportunities-in-growth-oriented-b09
May you you have prosperity in your trading!
Wolfster, IPT looks perfectly good here despite the long tedious drop from its April high.
After finally making it back to an obvious and important fork support it reversed and delivered the biggest week since the first week of April. Notice that the fork is based on the 2020 high and the 2024 low and makes use of the largest low-to-high swing of the 4 year downtrend. It’s textbook and last week’s action told us it matters and is in play so let’s see how it deals with resistance around the .30 level.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65081470355&a=1778021324
I just watched Jordan Roy-Byrne’s latest video and learned of the ETF RSP that represents the equally weighted S&P 500 so out of curiosity I used it to price IPT. I applied the same Andrews pitchfork and lo and behold we’ve got more perfection. What are the odds?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ARSP&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09685266109&a=1778960927
Has Barrick’s time arrived to rise?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOLD&p=M&st=1990-09-15&id=p53870219750&a=1779052489&r=1726412012816&cmd=print
The time has arrived for the whole sector.
HUI vs SPX:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3A%24SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=2&dy=0&id=p52995179539&a=1749701457
Silver is up a lot more than the S&P this year (roughly 29% vs 18%) and that outperformance is going to grow massively before the year is over.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3ASPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91111187986&a=1744193140
Hi Wolfster, it would take a long time for me to express why I feel the way I do about certain subjects like the coming Great Depression, Technology, what is behind the huge market bubble led by The Magnificent Seven and in particular Nvidia, also the morals and manners in society, the real estate boom in Canada and in The Western World and the shift in power from The West to The East. All of these subjects and many others are transformational. I have never seen anything like what is happening now taking place at any time in history.
I have spent a lot of time studying history, my three favorite periods in time in chronological order are:
1) The Industrial Revolution in Great Britain- How technology changed our existence.
2) The Napoleonic Era- The study of war with Russia, how a society which was torn apart by massive money printing was cured by a dictator who instituted a gold backed currency. The Age of Napoleon is an explosion of events in history that The French have never been able to get over or matter of fact the entire World.
3) The roaring Twenties in America that led up to The Great Depression, and how the excesses of good times always revert to the downward swing of the pendulum and bad times until the memory of either has dimmed in the public’s mind.
Let me say for now that I am very busy with politics and I am totally enjoying being alive at this point in time, but I am also very afraid of the way our World is headed. DT
L:ook at the beauty of Tesla chart!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p34571340209&a=1779064579&r=1726414540716&cmd=print
Look at the beauty of the Gold chart!
Ex,
Money will cheapen. I mean, c’mon nobody thought trillion dollar valuations would be norm for FANG stocks but here we’re. And as long as Elon is alive, Tesla will reach new heights.. It will outperform GOLD by many miles.
We also wouldn’t have expected the gold to be at all time highs at $2600 after 2.5 years of monetary tightening.
With gold producers margins being the highest they’ve been ever I do expect the gold mining stocks to far out perform Tesla in the next 2 years.
Tesla’s big move over the last decade has already happened, and it is valued more than the next dozen car companies (which is completely out of whack as a valuation) EV’s are being down-throttled by most major automakers over the last year, in favor of hybrids. The EV mania is hitting a stalling point, and rightly so.
If people had listened to projections for EV adoption rates from 10 years ago, then the forecast was that we wouldn’t even be using internal combustion engines right now, and would be powering society strictly off solar and wind energy. Clearly we are still using oil, nat gas, and there is growing adoption of nuclear power, and there is is plenty of strength in the internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles. That is still where the majority of car sales are. The case for EVs mass adoption was way overblown… just like Tesla’s current valuation. It will find gravity and return to Earth after taking a SpaceX trip up to its current valuation…
There’s not enough copper to put charging points everywhere there are gas stations….any thinking person knows this. There isn’t enough copper for all the wiring either. Society is waking up from the energy transition dream and “EV revolution” and forecasts and valuations will need to be more practical moving forward.
That’s an old story. Tesla is not just an EV company anymore – If it was then tsla would be trading like a Ford stock. Tesla’s potential lies in Optimus humanoid (and robotaxi to some extent). That’s where mega trend is to be formed (of course my belief anyway)
Yep, the politicians and organizations like WEF tried to sell Utopia. Most of these people are not serious people and should be taking your order of fries rather than social engineering. The small number of them are much brighter and wish us all to stop consuming resources and share everything rather than own it. That is their true intent. So, for now we are in that phase back to reality but which reality will that be? One of wealth and abundance or one of huge disparity, restricted mobility and dystopia. Perhaps somewhere in between.
CaliJoe, do you believe Tesla’s valuation is justified or sustainable? Under the current macro circumstances I don’t. If it fell by 50% overnight it would still be more expensive than Apple or Microsoft.
Of course the charts matter most so let’s see if it breaks out and how it behaves afterward. The 75% cleanout it had in 2022 should be seen as a positive thing for its prospects today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28300806471&a=1716139328
patrick karim on miners
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ASA/HaeOBQag-Miners-Priced-In-Gold/
I have 16 juniors and most are down a lot as I got in at the wrong time. Hard to sell any of them at this point. Some days I do want to dump most or all and re-deploy into something safer because I have serious doubts most will ever come back. We are living in a Brave New World, the Fourth Turning plus younger investors are going for tech and crypto. This is a period with no analogue. Out-of-the-box thinking is a must.
Sounds familiar…
I am waiting to see how selective the market is if we start getting some positive movement in Junior Explorers. There is always a possibility that everything moves with the trend …but if not, it may become apparent which ones are the dogs … hard to tell when they all go down.
Ditto………… ON OUT OF THE BOX thinking…..
Great discussion Cory and Dave. Thanks
The USD has been consolidating its bearish breakout for a month and is now ready for much lower levels. Of course it might first fill Friday’s gap down…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14069225150&a=1316751060
Ex, I just had Donair’s, spice cake and Amsterdam Blonde Lager, let the peasant’s eat crickets and mealworms. Life is like the markets it can be very cruel. This is not a social welfare site! LOL! DT 😜😉🤣
DT – Good on you…. I’m headed to the beach to kick back a few hazy IPA’s and enjoy the sun while it’s still out…. I asked everybody and Beaver Creek to spend more money to fix the fabric of society so we’ll see if it helps…
Cheers and weekend beers!
All kidding aside The Bye-Election in Montreal tomorrow is a must win for the Conservative Party. I will be following it very closely; we desperately need change in this country and if this Liberal stronghold can fall, we should have leverage to get a carbon tax election and a change in government. DT
The month is only half over but something tells me this huge breakout will stick:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=25&mn=7&dy=0&id=p47193071151&a=1720045086&r=1726444475749&cmd=print
It would be nuts to bet against silver here…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66176536378&a=1779167098
Silver smoked gold last week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p71719303186&a=1740665756
https://www.fibonomics.com/2024/09/charting-expander-pattern.html
Charting Basics : The Expander Pattern (GDX)
Uptrend (Higher Highs & Lows)