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Weekend Show – Peter Boockvar & Dana Lyons – Weakening US Economic Data and The Best Investment Opportunities

Cory
July 13, 2024

 

Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show! On the show this week we balance out analysis on recent economic data with sector specific market moves and investment opportunities.

 

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report on Substack kicks off the show with Peter sharing his insights into the current state of the economy, discussing key indicators, consumer behavior, and the potential impacts of anticipated Fed rate cuts. We explore equity market performance, AI investments, and his outlook for gold miners.
  • Click here to follow Peter at The Boock Report. 

  • Segment 3 and 4 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share Pro wraps up the show strictly looking at the markets. We discuss market reactions to recent lower-than-expected inflation data and the performance of lagging sectors like small caps. Dana also provides insights into the bond market, sector performance in utilities and REITs, and the strong showing of precious metals. We wrap up with a look at the latest trends in Bitcoin and Ethereum
  • Click here to visit the Lyons share Pro website and learn more about Dana’s invest services. 

 

 

 


Peter Boockvar
Dana Lyons
Discussion
39 Comments
    Jul 13, 2024 13:10 AM

    Lion One Reports Second Quarter Production Results. Lion One is Ramping up and Ramping up fast! Do you remember the miserable start up at Pure Gold because their management couldn’t figure out how to bring a new gold plant on-line and went bankrupt. That was a sad story but Lion One has made the leap from developer to producer and you want to “LISTEN UP” this time around. Opportunities like this are rare in the mining industry, they have made the LEAP! That is Amazing! DT

    https://liononemetals.com/news/news-releases/lion-one-reports-second-quarter-production-results-announces-resignation-of-david-tretbar/

      Jul 13, 2024 13:28 AM

      “If you aren’t a contrarian, you will lose.” Rick Rule “Buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy”. Warren Buffet ” Get it up get it in, take a day off”. LOL! Dick Tracy

        Jul 13, 2024 13:56 AM

        DT – I’ve been following Lion One for many years now, and have been invested in it the last couple years because I was so impressed with their bonanza-grade gold exploration results at Tuvatu, and the potential for massive deposit size with alkaline systems at depth. I’ve definitely had some good profitable position-trades and swing-trades in it over the years, but they have really underperformed for the last 2 years in a big way.

        As for the move into being a producer…. they have gotten off to a very rocky start over the last year with their move into production, and anyone invested in LIO has absolutely been the victim of them continually raising more money and diluting down existing shareholders as they didn’t get off to a good start at all. It has been one of my worst performing stocks out of a basket of over 50 positions.

        I hope they are finally starting to turn the corner now, but it has not been a glorious move into production so far for Lion One at all, and there was a whole quiet period where investors were writing in constantly to know more about what was going on and the company just wasn’t communicating. I’m just glad they FINALLY produced a more meaningful amount gold (after starting this move into production last August) and generated some revenues, and are putting out more news and details now, but just hope it’s not a day late and a dollar short. I think there is a ton of potential at Tuvatu or I wouldn’t be invested, and I’m wishing their team success in getting this mine running better so they can take those revenues and really get after the exploration of all the prospective drill targets around the 7km caldera.

          Jul 13, 2024 13:03 AM

          Hi Ex, I just bought in recently, I have been in and out a number of times as well. Hoping for the best and preparing for a run now that they have turned the corner. Thanks for your post, Ex, you always know the lay of the land and how to smooth out the bumps and how to tell it when it isn’t. DT

            Jul 13, 2024 13:12 AM

            Thanks DT. I think you are going to do very well investing at this point, as most of the damage and dilution was already inflicted to longer-term shareholders. Now that they are actually putting out gold production numbers and have the operations working, maybe they can start making some cheddar in these record high gold prices to feed the exploration side of the business.

            I’ve considered averaging down here in Lion One, but at this point, I want to see more proof in the pudding with future quarterly operations updates. I’m just going to let the stock price appreciate, but am down 49% in it, so… it’s going to be a while before that position is out of the red. I just checked, and it is officially my worst performing portfolio position out of 58 total positions… so very disappointing, but maybe they are hitting a better chapter in their journey moving forward.

            On the plus side, I noticed 36 of the positions are well in the green, with a number up triple digit percentages, so those bail out the stinkers. 😉

      Jul 13, 2024 13:24 AM

      DT, recently, I started purchasing this stock down here and will slowly accumulate. Technically, we may have a break a little lower but in the long run that will probably not matter.

        Jul 13, 2024 13:33 AM

        Hi Doc, are you in WRLG-West Red Lake Gold, years ago I owned Red Lake Gold when they handed out mining certificates, it too went bust. LOL! I am constantly looking at WRLG and thinking third time a charm. I can’t miss this one and I won’t miss this one. DT

          Jul 13, 2024 13:48 AM

          DT, I don’t although I constantly see talk about it on this site. Maybe I need to look into it. I’ve got positions in so many other PM stocks that I slowly add to on pullbacks that I’ve pretty much stopped looking at other stocks although I recently picked up New Found Gold.

            Jul 13, 2024 13:25 AM

            Hi Doc – We talk about West Red Lake Gold a lot on this show, because they are show sponsors of the KE Report, and I’ve been invested in them, ever since Doc Jones brought it to our attention that they were going to buy the Pure Gold assets out of receivership.

            Many of us have been following the journey of the Madsen Mine for a long time (ever since when Claude Resources was operating there in 2014, 2015, 2016….) Pure Gold took over the reigns next, and actually did a great job on the exploration side of the business, and even derisking and development. Personally, I made many great returns investing in Pure Gold during those years, and even sold out my final position on the news of their first gold pour. If I had ended my investing journey there with Pure Gold then it would have been a slam-dunk investing win for many years in a row.

            However…. I noticed the company run into the inevitable startup challenges with the mine commissioning and launch into commercial production and watched it waffle. The stock price really got hit hard after the first 3-6 months of production didn’t get off to a good start, and at that time I felt the worst was behind them and started repositioning in the stock. We were having Darren on the show that was assuring us that things were back on track and they had worked through most of their issues. That was clearly not the case and it was a mistake for me to get back in during the their producing chapter, as was averaging down in the stock later, because that prior team just had no idea what they were doing with being a production story and it became a sinking ship, and then sunk. That was a really sad end to the Pure Gold journey, and overshadowed all the good years of growth that many have forgotten. (very much a parallel to Alexco, which also did fantastic with exploration and development, and then failed as producers).

            Pure Gold was having too much “overbreak” in their ore initially, bringing in too much waste rock and diluting down their expected mined grades too much, and then they had even further challenges with reconciliation of the recovered grades versus their economic studies. That team was a trainwreck and really they were not the right team to be operating Madsen. The Claude team had done a better job on a smaller budget prior to them, but were just in a tough metals market in those years with much lower gold prices.

            —>> I have MUCH more confidence with the West Red Lake Gold team with Shane as CEO (as a prior successful mine builder) and Will as VP of Exploration, and we’ve had them on the KE Report every few weeks giving all kinds of different exploration, derisking, and development updates. One of those updates a few months back was that WRLG actually recently poured some gold recovered when cleaning out their mill, and it was found out that Pure Gold had installed many components incorrectly and even put the liners in backwards, where all this gold was collecting in them and not making it through the rest of the circuit. This was a big contributing reason for the grade reconciliation not matching up, and bodes well for the WRLG team when they actually start up mining next year with the mill actually working correctly.

            Additionally, the Pure Gold team had onerous debt loads that forced them to go right into mining the McVeigh Zone further up near surface in the Madsen Mine, but it has really complicated geology and is not easy to mine. Because there was a constant boot on their neck from the lenders to keep producing, they didn’t have the time to figure out the mine sequencing or other areas of the deposit.
            Only in the end of their story did they really start getting into the much better Austin Zone, but by that time it was too late to bail water to keep the ship from sinking.

            In contrast, the team at West Red Lake Gold Mines has taken their time for the last year to really do some quality infill definition drilling and has delineated much better areas to start mining at North Austin, Austin Main, and South Austin. They have dewatered down many more levels, and now have access all the way down to level 12, whereas Claude only got down to level 7, and Pure Gold stayed mostly up in the higher levels at McVeigh. This is going to be a totally different, and much more cogent strategy.

            This is allowing the West Red Lake Gold Mines team to drill from underground (which is way more cost effective and way less meters than doing it from surface like Pure Gold was doing). This also means that in the 4th quarter of this year, they are going to drill the bonanza-grade 8-Zone from underground and it could be very similar to the high-grade zone that put Gold Corp and Rob McEwen on the map at the nearby Red Lake Gold Mine back in the day.

            When one considers that all of the sunk costs have mostly been spent by prior teams (Claude & Pure Gold) and the mill is in place, and now properly installed and optimized, and that the West Red Lake Gold Mines team has spent a year defining the much better area to start mining, then I anticipate it very much will be a “3 times a charm” scenario at DT mentioned. They are getting the benefit of seeing 2 prior companies spend ~ $200 Million on everything, and are going to clean up shop with only needing to put in about $20-$30 million over the next year to put the Madsen Mine back into production.

            Then layer in the fact the Frank Giustra is behind this company bankrolling it and bringing in his network, and has stated publicly several times, (most recently on Rick Rules podcast over at Rule Media), that he intends to use West Red Lake Gold Mines, to become a cash cow producer, to then go out an acquire and roll up other companies into it. Frank has done it before, and I see West Red Lake Gold Mines becoming much bigger than just the Madsen Mine and their nearby satellite Rowan Property over the fullness of time. The vision is to make it a multi-mine producer, and people looking at it today are able to get in before all that value creation.

            Just my 2 cents as someone that has been following Madsen for a decade now, with each iteration of the company operators…. From Claude, to Pure Gold, and now West Red Lake Gold Mines, and as someone that has talked to the management team at WRLG dozens of times to ask questions and learn more about what went wrong with Pure Gold’s approach, and how they at WRLG are going to approach the restart in 2025. I’m stunned more people are not clued into what is going on here, but I think there are so many salty and wounded Pure Gold investors that they just don’t believe the mine can be run efficiently and profitably. By the time they do realize that, the valuation will be up multiple-fold. (not investing advice… just sharing my perspective after having spent several dozen hours learning more about this project over the years)

            Jul 13, 2024 13:28 AM

            We literally just interviewed Will Robinson, VP of Exploration, yesterday regarding even more high-grade wide-intercept gold results that came back in from North Austin for anyone interested in learning more. We also discussed that they are going to eventually start trial mining certain areas from North Austin, Austin Main, and South Austin, in preparation for a full restart that is slated for the middle of next year.

            ______________________________

            West Red Lake Gold – More Wide High-Grade Gold Intercepts Returned From North Austin Zone

            https://youtu.be/ZJ4qpNEchcc

            Jul 13, 2024 13:55 PM

            Here is their presentation 1.65 million ounces indicated and another 300 ounces inferred.

            https://westredlakegold.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/West-Red-Lake-Presentation-2024-07-05_presentation.pdf

            doesn’t sound like a monster deposit when compared to Lion One and Tuvatu mine, but sounds like their is enough drill targets to allow the resource to grow over time and maybe provide some some opportunities to expand the resource significantly. I like that Guistra is involved. Sounds like a pretty good story. Thanks for the history Ex.

            I have been a Lion One shareholder for a while and was hurt when they surprised the market with the need to raise funds at the beginning of the year when they had previously told they did not need to raise funds to get the mine in production. So I have a little distrust for management, but they seem to be making the most out of the funds by expanding the production profile of the mine so I have slowly been accumulating shares on dips and averaging my basis down, but I agree with Doc that the stock could drift lower for the next few months and could create a double bottom before reversing higher so newer investors might need to remain a little patient.

            Jul 13, 2024 13:50 PM

            Hi Charles, yes the deposit is smaller, but they’ve not even begun to test the limits along strike or at depth, and the Red Lake Mine next door goes down 4-5 times as much and that is where the goodies are. That is why I’m excited about 8-Zone getting tested. Also they have the Rowan deposit nearby with another 200,000+ very high-grade ounces that has only been drilled a little bit and will likely grow quite a bit at depth as well, and it will be a contributing satellite deposit.

            I’m invested in both West Red Lake Gold and Lion One and see the vision of where they both can be solid producing assets in a bigger way in a couple years.

            Jul 15, 2024 15:04 AM

            I would not touch anything……..Frank G…… sorry… but, his history is questionable ….

            Jul 15, 2024 15:29 PM

            His history in gold mining is actually pretty impressive and he’s actively behind Aris Mining, West Red Lake Gold, and just got involved with NexGold (the new business combination of Treasury Metals and Black Wolf Copper & Gold). I believe you’re referring back to the Uranium One situation which is a different kettle of fish, than these gold development/production companies.

          Jul 14, 2024 14:15 AM

          Thanks for the extra info Ex!

            Jul 15, 2024 15:30 PM

            Always happy to share relevant info Charles. Cheers!

    BDC
    Jul 13, 2024 13:41 AM

    Larry – Bottom picking, especially for NatGas, is prone to distractions. I missed it too! One reason is that the Saturation indicator begs just one more day, one more low where the 7 level could be reached; but a clear 3-drives move in UNG/BOIL which culminated early yesterday morning (Friday) should have signaled a substantial buy, and a very possible bottom. I finally noticed it this morning (see the weekly report later today). BDC

      BDC
      Jul 15, 2024 15:48 PM

      No dice… gotta keep counting down.

    Jul 13, 2024 13:49 AM

    Here is my latest article that went out on Substack yesterday, focused on Silvercrest Metals:

    __________________________________

    Opportunities In Growth-Oriented Silver Producers – Part 3

    Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – 07/12/2024

    https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/opportunities-in-growth-oriented-5cb

      Jul 13, 2024 13:04 AM

      Silvercrest Metals (SILV) has a nice looking chart, and just bounced off it’s 50-day EMA for a solid recent rally.

      https://schrts.co/tukzNImb

        BDC
        Jul 13, 2024 13:39 PM

        Ex – https://ibb.co/1ZP7wbq – SILV has hit its highest peak CCI (Commodity Channel Index) in a year and is at MaxSat(7). There may well be more upside, but a retracement to ~8.25 would not surprise. BDC

          Jul 13, 2024 13:52 PM

          Hi BDC – Yes, good point on the CCI, and it is getting a little lofty here, and may due for a shorter-term consolidation. Bottom line: if Silver and Gold keep running, then I believe Silvercrest can keep running, and it is one of the few companies holding both physical gold and silver on its balance sheet in addition to it’s reserves, and so it can garner a loftier valuation and deserve it.

          Jul 15, 2024 15:42 AM

          BDC test again

      Jul 13, 2024 13:14 AM

      That was quite a WRLG story above, an eye opener and an education. Tenacity and Perseverance.

        Jul 13, 2024 13:17 AM

        Thanks Terry.

    Jul 13, 2024 13:58 PM
      Jul 13, 2024 13:39 PM

      What is scary is that China is making most of the important strategic moves that will make them the dominant country in the future. The West has become obsessed with the military, bread and circuses, deficit spending, rascality in high places and a total lack of leadership, while also terribly neglecting industry and commerce, their people, and their infrastructure. It is sad to watch but it all stems from where the buck stops at the top and filters down through the various levels of government. This all can be seen and predicted by reading history and using it as a guide. Humans however have a tragic flaw they don’t learn from the past and are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

      We in The West will learn the hard way that we must go back to a gold backed currency, but we won’t be the first to make this important change. We have lost the ability to lead. DT

      Jul 15, 2024 15:00 AM

      Demand for platinum group metals is booming in China, which has the highest platinum consumption worldwide and accounts for nearly 20% of total palladium demand, according to a 2024 forecast by U.K. refining company Johnson Matthey.

      I said over 2 years ago……… China likes platinum,,,,,, 🙂

    Jul 13, 2024 13:03 PM

    Recent activity: 1st time into Intrepid, Back into Northisle, Aztec and Reyna Silver, added a few to District, Centerra Minerals, Magna, Benton & First Tellurium.

    BDC
    Jul 13, 2024 13:40 PM

    https://www.fibonomics.com/2024/07/natgas-week-bottom.html
    NatGas Week : Bottom?
    Three Drives Lower
    Slingshot Turn!

      Jul 15, 2024 15:21 AM

      HI BDC…I find your charts had to read….What time frame is that 3 drive down on?….looks real good for a pop from here…i am in /NG Aug……below is the 5/3 breakout bar w some volume plus my 240 minute chart has another ABCD down at 21.15

    Jul 13, 2024 13:50 PM

    When the earnings reports come out from the Gold and Silver Producers and probably mostly the majors, we will get a good idea about how badly inflation has cut into those numbers. If the numbers are lousy and they had a good quarterly production, we will know that inflation is a lot worse than we are being told. The best of breed producers should be wallowing in cash with prices like we are now seeing. If they aren’t The Fed should not back down on the fight against inflation. Inflation destroys everything. DT

    Jul 13, 2024 13:55 PM

    Newmont will come out with their second quarter earnings on July 24th, 2024, after the market close. DT

    Jul 14, 2024 14:08 PM

    Opportunities With Mid-Tier And Junior Royalty Companies – Part 7

    Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – Substack – 07-14-2024

    $SAND $SSL $MTA $ELE $ELEMF $VOXR $EMX $ECOR $ECRAF

    https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/opportunities-with-mid-tier-and-junior-696

    Jul 15, 2024 15:30 PM

    Looks like silver is about to drop so SLV can fill its July 3rd gap. Priced in GLD the gap has already been filled.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p10536827292

    Jul 15, 2024 15:53 PM

    Heading to the middle of the all time low on-going channel. DeJa vu …to infinity.

    Jul 15, 2024 15:12 PM

    Dow at all time high … debt at all time high. Truth at all time low.