Weekend Show – Peter Boockvar & Dan Steffens – Macro Economic Analysis, Where Are The Best Opportunities In Commodity Stocks
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. This weekend we focus on the economic drivers for commodities. This all ties into economic trends, recent data and central banks policy now shifting slowly toward rate cuts.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report on Substack kicks off the show by sharing insights on the market’s current state, the rise of AI stocks, the bond market’s behavior, and commodity trends. We then shift focus to the energy sector, exploring opportunities in oil and natural gas
- Click here to read over The Boock Report.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group wraps up the show with a focus on the recent surge in natural gas prices, which have risen over 50% since April, and its implications on the market. We discuss the upcoming LNG export facilities, pipeline capacity issues, and potential future price trends. Dan also shares his insights on oil prices, key companies in the natural gas sector, and investment opportunities in mineral royalty companies like Blackstone Minerals and large gas producers like Ovintiv.
- Click here to visit the Energy Prospectus Group website.
Added FCG, a NatGas Stock ETF.
https://tinyurl.com/2b7mvxeh
Saturation : What Is It?
Trend & Turn Quality
Rounding Bottoms
Rounding Tops
Are Best
Dan mentions OVV as a good natural gas stock, anyone know why NG is up over 20 PCT over last month and OVV is down approx 8 PCT same time period.
See the NatGas Stock ETF mentioned above.
It looks like a Bull Flag forming; however,
the commodity itself may be a Monster!
Wikipedia for due diligence can be impressive:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovintiv
New to me. Very useful. BDC
Great segment with Peter Boockvar for a Saturday morning perspective. I appreciated the mini-discussion about the importance of non-China economies (India, etc) that represent several billion people that will need tremendous amounts of commodities to improve and build out there infrastructure and technological modernity. We should, also, not forget the nearly 1 billion people that do not have reliable electricity for everyday life. I think we can sometimes overemphasize, and overestimate, the need for AI/EV/Crypto infrastructure, as these are NOT basic human needs.
+1 Great comments BrianE.
Peter Boockvar, this guy is terrible at making calls.
One month ago he was on a podcast saying fertilizer stocks like NTR and MOS were good buys.
They have since tanked hard.
Listen to these people at your financial peril.
And BTW, SELL YOUR GOLD NOW!!!
SELL!!
SELL!!
SELL!!
IT IS GOING TO BE CRUSHED THIS SUMMER, JUST LIKE IT ALWAYS DOES!!!
SHHHHHHHHHHH! Let’s not make any comments about Joe’s Post, let’s instead ignore him and pretend he doesn’t exist. I don’t know how long that will last. LOL! DT 😉
The ‘Tell’ is back …lol.
+1
@Joe – Sep 11, 2022 11:00 AM
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK….
The countdown to the next rate hike and subsequent smack down in PMs is underway.
Another week and half for the next bomb to drop, and PMs will be smashed down again.
You still have time, any rally in PM shares should be seen as a merciful window of opportunity to do one thing and one thing only…..
SELL
SELL
SELL
This is the LAST opportunity for you to unload your shares before the last quarter of the year starts and these stocks are ground into a fine powder.
Get your cash stockpile up, you’ll need it.
SELL
SELL
SELL
——————————————
@Joe – Sep 24, 2022 24:40 PM
And it’s down the tubes again for PMs and the miners.
It’s far from over.
You might think we’ve hit the bottom, that the darkest of times for this sector are about to pass, but you’d be wrong to think that.
The last quarter of this year will be a washout to end all washouts.
You will see companies in this space trading for less than cash.
You’ll even see some bankruptcies.
And no amount of Excelsior multi-paragraph, specious diatribes will stem the tide.
Strap in, it’ll be a hell of a ride.
——————————————————
–>> Below is a great Chart of Gold going back to mid-September of 2022, where it started the process of double bottoming in the $1622-$1618 range, (all while silver and the PM mining stocks actually did bottom days after these posts and then went on 8 month rallies).*
——-> Late September of 2022 actually was the intermediate bottoming process in the PM sector. The 4th quarter of 2022 saw a huge move up in PM stocks that kept rallying until early May of 2023. Haha! You gotta love it! 😉
>>> Gold went from $1,622 in Sept 2022 all the way up to $2,454 just last month in May 2024.
The Cash (US Dollar) dropped in purchasing power, as evidenced by Gold going up $800 in less than 2 years between those posts. The Gold didn’t change — it’s on the elemental table.
>> What changed is how many dollars it now takes to buy that same ounce of gold.
Buy, buy , buy………………….. gold going a lot higher…. sheeple do not understand inflation , nor the FAKE FED…..
Kind of comical….
Let’s see…..gold in 1971….$35….
……………….gold today…….$2350….. looks like someone needs go back to math class, in the Public school system… 🙂
🙂
I was hoping that Gold would consolidate a bit more
That Joe is back that early makes me wondering. He was always a good indicator for a new low. Has Joe lost his visionary capability or has Gold already finished his pull back?
If this was the new low, why are the PM producers so weak?
At $2300 every gold miner makes a lot of money.
Joe, your calls to sell have marked every low for the last 2 years so it’s funny that you’d criticize anyone’s calls. Furthermore, gold rose 50% since you squealed sell, sell, sell in late 2022 so your need to keep commenting here doesn’t make much sense.
Why anyone would take him seriously in the first place is beyond me. I’m sure he enjoys the reaction he gets. DT
Two months ago SCZ and IPT were both at 0.27. I bought 136000 shares of Santacruz Silver at 0.27. Two weeks ago i sold it at 0.46 and bought with the proceeds 229000 shares of IPT at 0.28.
I never ‘flip’ shares in this manner preferring to buy low and hold…but i just couldn’t see a big difference between SCZ and IPT–other than the move of SCZ to 0.46 and the non-move of IPT still at 0.28.
And going forward i don’t see much difference between them, both solid proxies for a bet on silver.
I’ll find out a year from now if i made a good trade.
Both are higher cost producers. IPT has produced about 6M oz totally in its 20+ year history, while SCZ does this in 1 year. Using Rick Rule Rationale, big mines provide big rewards with possibility of big problems. Small mines provide small rewards but also with possibility of big problems.
Sorry but Rule is biased for some reason other than reality. The facts disagree with him which is why billionaires disagree with him. Tiny caps beat the large caps during every bull market and do so without providing investors with a false sense of security. I’ve seen countless miners that were huge compared to IPT run into horrible problems and even file for bankruptcy. IPT’s drawdowns have never been due to internal distress. They’ve primarily come from weak metals prices. Yes there’s been extra dilution since the acquisition of the zinc project but it looks like a good deal to me and it’s rather hard to go bankrupt when you don’t have any debt. Like people, I much prefer to look at companies individually rather than lump them together based on frivolous similarities. IPT is unique in the space and hardly a “dreg” as that idiot jonsyl maintained. Yes there are risks and with the new zinc property there’s one more risk but the potential reward is now greater too. In addition, the quick 170% move off its February low was very bullish. The impulsive move erased 11 months of decline in 6 weeks and did so on high volume and its greatest RSI reading in at least 20 years.
I don’t own SCZ but it does look quite cheap by several metrics which makes me wonder if the problem is jurisdictional. I haven’t paid much attention to Bolivia lately but even if (big if) it is relatively safe, perception is everything.
For the record, my defense of IPT should not be construed as urging anyone to buy. I consider it a strong buy and continue to buy but that doesn’t mean anyone else should.
SCZ is not a large cap, not much bigger than IPT. But it sure is producing much more than IPT comparatively. I don’t have either anymore, just reacting to the blazesb post above.
Interesting thread on IPT and SCZ. I like both companies quite a great deal and hold both in my portfolio, because they both have offered nice leverage to rising silver prices in the past. Both companies now have more exposure to zinc in the present than they did a couple of years back, but I’m actually bullish on zinc and am fine with that. Of course, the torque will still come from the silver.
Santacruz has also really changed ever since the acquisition of the multiple mines and processing centers in Bolivia from Glencore, to now compliment their mine in Mexico. A couple of years back they only had 2 smaller high-cost mines in Mexico (not the same mine in Mexico they currently hold). I always thought those had some interesting exploration upside, and so in that sense they were very close to Impact as a smaller leveraged junior silver miner with exploration upside.
However, post-acquisition, they really upped their production profile, but also did introduce more potential areas of both challenges and opportunities, than when they were just a smaller junior. Based on their production profile now, they really have moved up more into the mid-tier producer range, and thus they may have a bit less leverage than they did in the past. Also, Bolivia does have a more negative perception as a jurisdiction with investors than Mexico. Both countries have their risks and advantages though.
Between the 2, it’s likely that Impact will have more torque moving forward, not just from the margin increase leverage, but also because IPT has a more attractive pipeline of exploration targets comparatively.
I had a brief chat with Fred at the VRIC and asked about a number of the exploration targets he’s discussed in the past. He is still animated by them and just needs a bigger budget to be able to get after a lot of them. They were in survival mode the last few years, but now with metals prices rising (not just silver but also zinc), then I anticipate that IPT may finally start having the excess revenues to plow into more exploration over the next year or so.
Their exploration potential is an exciting value driver for IPT that remains underappreciated by many PM investors when they only look at Impact as a producer. They also have some very prospective copper and gold drill targets that could add another dimension to their story if they hit paydirt on the projects in future exploration campaigns. I even asked Fred if that would dilute their silver story and torque, but he indicated that they are really interesting gold and copper targets and could be worth the candle. Of course, there are still a lot of interesting silver exploration targets too.
Both companies, SCZ and IPT are attractive for different reasons to me personally, and thus I keep a heavier weighting in them both in my portfolio compared to many silver stocks.
I mentioned large caps because of Rule’s stance. SCZ is about twice the market cap of IPT so very much a junior and a seemingly undervalued one at that.
I sold 85% of my SCZ and all my IPT for now and am not in silver or gold much at all now other than my physical. I could see the physical go up and the miners languish until after the summer sucks season.
Hi Matthew, I really like Bolivia it is a very mining friendly government, I own three stocks with operations there, Santacruz a producer, Eloro Resources a developer, and Cartier Silver an early-stage exploration company. Cheers, DT
I am a little concerned about The New Mexican President who was voted in for a six-year term at the beginning of this month she is a very staunch socialist. You know what socialists are like they tend to want to nationalize industry. In a country with a lot of poor people with water problems like they are experiencing in Mexico City, mining could take a hit, we will see. Mexico City has something like 22.5 million people, a huge problem. DT
Maybe SCZ should consider selling their Mexico operation and either pay down debt or increase exploration in Bolivia.
DT, according to the Fraser Institute’s annual mining survey Bolivia is a bit less mining friendly than Mexico but Mexico’s new president is of course terrible. However, some (Pierre Lassonde for example) have said that she won’t be as bad as the outgoing guy even though she’s seen as having the same agenda. Whether or not that’s true the miners at most risk appear to be those with open pit operations. Impact Silver is purely underground including its high grade zinc property and outright nationalization of silver mining is not a threat that I’m worried about.
Hi Matthew, I’m not worried about outright nationalization either, I was thinking more along the lines of a tax increase on their operations. DT
It looks like a lot of the PM stocks are pulling back again but the amount of volume on this move up should encourage everyone that there is more interest in the sector. We’re entering the summer months and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a lull in the action. Regardless, I’ll just keep adding to my personal positions in this undervalued sector preparing for the ultimate breakout in the future.
Here’s my latest article just out over on my Substack channel:
________________________________________________
The Disconnect Between Gold And Silver Price Action Versus Precious Metals Stocks
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – 06-15-2024
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/the-disconnect-between-gold-and-silver
Ex – Per your first (long term) Gold chart the AB(1:1)CD is 2713.30 but the BackBox XY(1:1.618)Z is 2466.49 (calculated by advancing the 1923.70~1045.40 box 61.8% north). This is very close to the current top at 2454.20 and could be an extended resistance level. […reading on….]
On your second (intermediate) chart, the triple bottom of November became incredibly bullish after it bounded north (they usually drop third time down; also detailed on your third (daily) chart). However, the recent March gap ~2250 will almost certainly be filled. Sooner would be better, but ….
Repeat from the Sinn interview (Daily): https://ibb.co/R6byzWF
Repeat from the Sinn interview (Weekly): https://ibb.co/hZsKj9v
Ex and Matthew and Doc if you are watching – Can you guys give me your thoughts on Brixton both from a fundamental and technical perspective? It’s been dead money for a long time, but I keep adding on dips. I haven’t seen anyone comment on it lately, but I could have missed.
Charles, nothing has changed fundamentally as far as I know. It’s still an explorer with a copper discovery and enough property to drill for decades. I believe it is cheap but of course that’s not based on the metrics that would apply to a producer. Book value for example is a meaningless measure of any explorer.
There have been some positive technical divergences over the las 5 months but I can’t say that it won’t get cheaper especially if copper and gold have a rougher summer than I think they will. However, drilling commenced about a month ago at Thorn and I have to assume that Ivanhoe Electric is currently drilling Hog Heaven so we could get some price moving news even if the metals’ prices don’t cooperate for awhile.
I continue to accumulate shares and my most recent buy happened on Friday.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p86556977018&a=1669058775
Thanks for your response Matthew. That weekly pitchfork is insightful. To me It looks like it could bump around in this lower range for most of this year.
Charles, it sure could remain low for the rest of the year but I’d be very careful about reading too much into the charts. These highly speculative juniors with no revenue are slaves to two things: Drill results and the price action of the metals that they’re looking for. Therefore don’t be surprised if it gets moving with little technical warning.
The priority is the copper discovery as it should be based on the drill results and BHP’s interest but I’m sure the Trapper gold property will be revisited when the time is right and the carried interest in Friedland’s Montana project is nearly worth the current price by itself.
Charles, in 2019 Brixton drilled the best hole any where that year. Number 150. They day the assays were released Eric Sprott bought 10% of Brixton saying ‘it sure looks like they’ve got the goods’.
They never followed up. No step out drilling program anywhere near #150–not within 1000 metres.
Since then Brixton’s story is one of endless pivots to other properties. They’re pretty good at stirring up interest in them. Robert Friedland optioned their Nevada project. And was the major that took down a piece of the company last year BHP?
Quinton Henning is on the bandwagon too. So much high profile interest. So little accomplished.
If you want to know if Brixton mgmt is getting serious about developing Thorn where Hole 150 was drilled (in one of the target zones all cheekily named after single malt whiskeys) you could do worse than see if they’re ever going near the hole that started it all.
Its only been five years.
Thanks Blazesb. Are you a shareholder? It sounds like you are also frustrated with the lack of progress.
Charles, i was a brixton shareholder. In 2020, dumbfounded by the inaction, the no step-outs around hole 150, i sold at a small loss.
I was poking around the internet one day and to amuse myself looked up the number of companies Eric Sprott had taken a piece of in 2019/20. I stopped counting in the mid-twenties. Three million$ here, five there etcetera. Brixton was just one of many. While I’m sure Sprott does his due diligence– needing just one in a hundred to hit–it is a shotgun approach nonetheless..
I’m not sure about Brixton mgmt. I think they’re really really good at finding investors. Beyond that, with reference to their not following up hole 150, i’m reminded of the legendary Murray Pezim who said ‘Why drill a hole and ruin a good story?’
https://tinyurl.com/2xczx9xz
NatGas Week: Breaking Out!
Strong Dollar Constraint
This Is Temporary