Brien Lundin – What’s Driving The Gold Breakout, And Will The Stocks Continue To Rise?
Brien Lundin, Editor of the Gold Newsletter and our host at the New Orleans Investment Conference joins us to share his thoughts on what is driving the gold and silver price higher in the face of a higher US Dollar and interest rates. We also look at the gold and silver stocks, mostly the juniors, that have just started to move. We ask how Brien is managing his portfolio and recommendations and if he is rotating money into the junior stocks that have lagged the move higher.
Stocks mentioned are Avino Silver & Gold, Blackrock Silver and New Pacific Metals. You can see these are silver stocks.
The massive ‘offshore financing’ black market that is unregulated and averse to public electronic accountability, especially through blockchain vehicles, may be circumventing the possibility of CBDC-like domination by increasing its opaque control of commodity and fungible hard assets, e.g. Gold and Silver.
Silver has only had 3 daily closes above today’s close in the last 11 years. The last one happened Feb., 1 2021 and the other two happened in 2020. If we finish the week above 28.15 it will be the best weekly close in 11 years. So silver just needs to avoid falling 1.5% tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p80914631738&a=1559598210
Like the chances of it staying above 28.15 but it is freaky Friday lol……
https://tinyurl.com/2w2fhe7h
NatGas: Thursday Update
Buy Zone Acquired
Will It Hold?
Gold hit 2400 , congratulations to longs, may your juniors rocket soon!
+2400
The China gold exchange maybe pushing gold and silver up to flush out the UD dollar. Sell treasuries and buy gold.
Good point John. Yes, there has been a consistent arbitrage from West to East for gold pricing, and there is a lot of movement into gold in the East and out of US dollars. A pretty good trade all things considered.
Gold & Silver paused at the ABCD(1:1) from Monday until this afternoon, and are now breaking north to the ABCD(1:1.272). Sideways consolidation did not last long this time!
Michael Oliver a few hours ago. Great interview!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rc0ulP4hxJc
Matthew, it seems you got this right, the pullback was short lived (now 2802/28,85)
The big spicey position in AAG is back in play, I waited for sub 29-30 but it didn’t want to go there, so now I got back in at 0,32.
Let’s hope all leveraged plays gets a kick in its ass to get turbo charged
Well you’re still ahead since you sold at .35 and that’s a bigger feat considering the environment. Trading a young bull market is difficult especially in this sector.
The metals are doing well tonight but more importantly, silver is outperforming gold at the perfect time to cement its breakout versus gold. The gold-silver ratio is now lower than Wednesday’s spike low which of course means my preferred silver-gold ratio is now higher than Wednesday’s spike high. This is great news for the whole sector but especially the riskier parts of it.
SLV:GLD daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p11888384125&a=1649500961
Matthew, do you think a somewhat deeper pull back could soon take place, now that Silver has hit the ABCD(1:1.272) level (spot)? (Nothing major, maybe a full 38.2%, which is normal for strong trends.) – BDC
If this were the average intermediate uptrend I’d bet that a pullback is starting now with this reaction from a big round number. It didn’t quite hit 30 but close enough. But because this is much more than the typical intermediate uptrend I’m not so sure this is anything more than just a one day wonder to fill gaps.
The overbought daily chart by itself suggests a high likelihood of a pullback/consolidation here but the patterns and oscillators (among other things) that are playing out on a bigger scale suggest that we could still see significant further upside before we get even a normal pullback.
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if silver tops 35 before having a decent correction I think it could first quickly pull back to the current level from 32.50 or so.
I don’t have live silver charts so here’s SLV (weekly):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p75832516078&a=1654912307
It would be quite bearish if SLV were to finish the week below Monday’s open.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30960358326&a=558582253
Silver has already been down to 28.44 today but yesterday’s close was 28.25 so it will be interesting to see if it can completely fill the gap.
Silver weekly (again, not a live chart):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10069138041&a=1046579197
May silver hit 29.91, 7 cents shy of the top price pivot of 29.98…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63410441254
SLV on the other hand did manage to exceed that top price pivot…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31543396978
It should be noted that price never comes close to that top price pivot in most years and in those years that price reaches the top pivot, the pivot often marks the high for the year or close to it. That was the case in 2019 and 2016, for example. However, in 2020 the pivot was exceeded by 31% and in 2006 it was exceeded by 37%. Those are the two best “beats” of this century but the bull market of the 1970s shows what’s possible. In 1974 that top pivot was exceeded by 60% and in 1979 it was exceeded by a whopping 463%.
So based on those “unicorn” years here’s what we might have in store:
Based on:
2020: $39.27
2006: $41.07
1974: $47.97
1979: $168.79
2004 was different and worth mentioning. The top pivot was exceeded by 16% but then price crashed 33% and later exceeded the top pivot again and by a similar 15%.
2011 is worth mentioning because it marked the top of that bull trend. The top pivot was exceeded by a wimpy 20% which just shows that the second trip to $50-ish bore no resemblance to the first trip in terms of excess or “bubbliness” if you will. The real repeat of that late ’70s move is, beyond any doubt, still ahead.
What will it be this year? Any guesses? Anyone?
Larry Pesavento was trading Silver back then (1976-81), and if I remember correctly, he mentioned that the top around $50 was not only fleeting but highly questionable from a technicians point of view. But even throwing that one out, the other numbers are impressive.
Silver hit 29.80 (spot) which nearly matched the longer term ABCD(1:1.5) of 29.78. Update coming post market hours.
I wouldn’t throw out that 1979/80 print but it sure was a legitimate blow-off top (the 2011 top didn’t come to the excesses of 44 years ago, not even close). Even gold delivered a massive 118% move above its top price pivot in 1979 and when 1980 arrived the pivots all adjusted higher and gold rose another 40% above its December ’79 high to almost touch the new highest price pivot.
To see silver outperform gold almost 4 to 1 in that mania (and in this context, “above the top price pivot…”) seems about right to me. In 2006 gold went 17% above its top pivot while silver went 37%, a more than 2 to 1 outperformance, and that move was no mania at all when compared to ’79/80. I found junk silver in circulation that year and playing the sector felt very lonely compared to today.
https://tinyurl.com/3w98p79v
Gold & Silver: 5pm Update
Correction Ongoing
https://tinyurl.com/3w98p79v
Gold & Silver : 5am Snapshot
Likely pin-bar tops. Will update post market.
What the Westgold–Karora merger means for the Aussie gold sector
Alexandra Eastwood – Australian Mining 04/11/2024
“When Westgold Resources announced its $1.2 billion merger with Western Australian gold miner Karora Resources this week, it sent the industry into a spin – and for good reason.”
“Karora is the owner of the Beta Hunt and Higginsville gold mines, both high-performing assets nestled in the same region of WA as Westgold’s iconic Bluebird and Great Fingall mines.”
“Alongside other operating assets, the enlarged Westgold is expected to bring in 400,000 ounces of gold per year. This will launch the company into the top five Australian producers.”
Why People Are In A Rush To Buy Gold At Costco
April 11, 2024 – NBC Today
Big-box retailer Costco started selling 24-carat gold bars around a year ago and it has created a frenzy with customers. A Wells Fargo analyst says sales “may now be running at $100 million to $200 million a month.” NBC’s Sam Brock reports for TODAY.
See…. it’s not just central banks that are buying gold…. 🙂
I pointed this out in the ORPHAN SECTION…..
OOTB Jerry
Apr 09, 2024 09:59 PM
GOT GOLD…………………… 🙂
PAMP It: Costco Selling Up To $200 Million In Gold Bars Per Month, Wells Fargo Estimates
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 09, 2024 – 03:25 PM
Last December, wholesale retailer Costco announced that they had sold over $100 million worth of gold in Q3 2023.
Reply
Cfs2000
Apr 09, 2024 09:28 PM
I just looked on the Costco website and could not find any silver or gold coins for sale..
Reply
Cfs2000
Apr 09, 2024 09:33 PM
The only gold bars Costco has for sale are diamond studded
Costco has them but they get sold out pretty fast. Just checked and I found some for sale on their website. 1 oz Gold Bar PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna and 1 oz Gold Bar Rand Refinery.
Costco needs to buy them a good gold miner so they can keep the bars flowing. They may encounter some shortages otherwise.
+1
They could take over a struggling gold producer and rebrand it: Costco Mining
Costco could probably run a miner at a profit better than many managements now.
FWIW:
My Schwab stocks are still within an algo controlled channel. Although I was at the top of the channel a week or two ago, the last week has returned it to the middle of the long term channel of a couple of years. However, the stocks in the green went from “3” to “22” and as of this morning they fell back to “16” as of this morning. It demonstrates that my Schwab account is still in control by AI. I am hoping the pressure of physical advances take control in the near future. Due to the continued pricing errors in my Schwab account, I am attempting to transfer the remainder of my Schwab account for the 5th time. I am hoping the turn in commodities makes other brokerage firms more receptive to transfer. The interesting item to take away is that despite the large increase in the # and % of stocks in my account that have turned “green”, their gains have been off set by declines in those that are green and remain green, or increases in losses of those in the red. AI appears to attempt to zero out the account on a daily basis, although there has been a definite increase in days with small gains. We will see if the pattern changes.
FWIW Part 2: The bots like the word “Silver” in the name of the stock today. They do not appear to have knowledge of what companies hold greater amounts of silver.
SCZ off to the races… for now.
One of my larger holdings, it’s been frustrating holding this producer. It has been lagging a lot, my break even is 0,45
The most infuriating part is that I had zero dry powder to average down.
I see at least 1,35-ish when it start moving
I’m thinking that the lack of news on SCZ is a good thing as nothing major has happened on the bearish side. They will likely release a strong quarterly in about 10 days and I am expecting a run up and a reason to take profits pre-release.
Another thought I have is this run will take a breather when the gold/silver ratio is around 80, no real reason for that assumption other than the ratio is watched be the pros more than the little guy.
Yep… nice to see Santacruz Silver finally waking up.
Oracle Commodity Holding Corp. is a spinout I got and bought into the last couple weeks, maybe the timing of there new listing will launch it upwards… or get it ignored.
Huge gold move related to 2 WARS raging as well…………which is unsettling……..People are very nervous about the largest crop of incompetent global leaders in all of recent history !
Stagflation on our door step as well !