John Rubino – Mixed Financial Data And Geopolitical Pressures Continue Creating Market Volatility
John Rubino, publisher of his newsletter over at Substack, joins us review the continued volatility in markets caused by mixed macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions in 2 conflict zones. This conversation covers a lot of ground leading off with the unstable geopolitical headwinds paired with trends in the larger macroeconomic forces at play. John sees more generalist investors waking up to the reality that their bonds are not acting life safe havens, and that it may create more interest in gold inflows. With higher for longer interest rates still likely to break something in the financial sector, with a weakening consumer, and the eventual recession and contraction of the economy still quite likely in the medium-term, he feels investors should remain defensive in this environment.
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End of Free Money Plunges German Construction Industry into Crisis
by Wolf Richter • Oct 16, 2023
“Unlike in the US, the German economy is not being fired up by gigantic deficit spending by the government. Deficits are relatively muted, by US standards. So Germany is now contemplating another quarter of mildly declining GDP. In Q2, GDP had 0% growth, following Q1 of -0.1%, Q4 2022 of -0.4%, and Q3 2022 of +0.4%.”
“The impossible happened in Germany, a black swan of sorts that no one was ready for: Negative interest rates turned positive.”
“It now actually costs money to borrow money. Which apparently came as a shock in an economy where negative interest rates were perceived to be the new normal. This is topped off by a massive bout of inflation – including construction cost inflation. And all prior assumptions went out the window…”
Silver Mining Industry Won’t Be Able to Keep Up With Demand: Shawn Khunkhun
Commodity Culture – Oct 16, 2023
“CEO of Dolly Varden Silver (TSX-V: DV | OTCQX: DOLLF) Shawn Khunkhun points out that there are very few pure silver mines in operation in stable jurisdictions, and this will put pressure on supply to meet ever-growing demand. Shawn cites silver’s increasing industrial use, its history as sound money, and its use as a flight to safety in uncertain economic times as reasons why investors should be paying more attention to silver.”
Will the market care or even react ????…..has got to be the lowest trading volume ever for venture stocks.
When you say will the market care or even react, probably not because the public the so-called Moms and Pops are broke. Most people these days are hoping for an increase in salary. Everything is going up-food, rent, mortgages, clothing, and taxes. The wealth effect has disappeared from their lives. People on fixed salaries which is most of the public are suffering. None of the newsletter writers are talking about how the shrinking buying power of the dollar is affecting the ability of the Smith’s to afford speculation.
Even the man without a dollar is 50 cents better off than he once was. Our economy is driven by small business and the middle class, and it has been crushed. The wars just keep increasing in scope and number, the ability to finance those wars means less money for The Moms and Pops. I see no end to these conflicts the countries aren’t negotiating; the good jobs won’t come back until the World is off a war footing and becomes concerned with the wants and needs of their citizens. It’s a Crazy situation unlike after The First and Second World War when a treaty had been signed and you knew peace was coming. Now we only have MORE WAR. DT
The Toronto Star has an article out this morning (GET THIS) that the average cost of a new car in Canada has climbed to, $67,800. There goes your freedom just buying a car and keeping it on the road will require someone to work continually from morning till night just to drive an automobile. That does not include any of the other factors that go into a family’s budget. DT
New Cars are now out of reach for most .
Unless they are living in their car 🚗
How much of the increase is due to more people buying EV’s which are more expensive??? Go green by going in the red. 🙄
After 3-4 months of living in your car and drinking coke because of a lack of water you won’t be able to get in or out of it. Just like the government’s finances once you start living an abnormal lifestyle you enter “The Twilight Zone”. “The Twilight Zone is all about the afterlife. They have been playing old episodes at midnight because it gets a P rating not suitable for young audiences, that is how far we have come. DT
Non-Intervention Report: some up, some down with – 60% retracement of opening gains… just like almost every other day since Jan 2021. If pattern continues for rest of day like most other days, my account should be slightly up or down from open, at the close. The lack of randomness is very telling.
Interesting: 3rd 2% gain of day after two retracements. Seems to be some disagreement about direction.
Rally …Rally. Almost 3% into close. One day uptrend…. Now … can we make it straight up for 4 years so I can break even.
CDE hit fork resistance today after rising 33% in 2 weeks…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03545482180&a=1462989167
I’ve watched a lot of Rick Rule video interviews and listened to a lot of audio interviews from him over the years… This one had some different concepts and ideas in it than many of those and was particularly good. Also solid questions from Bill Powers in it to draw the answers out of Rick.
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“I’m in Junior Mining Stocks for 1,000% Gains” explains Rick Rule (plus why he crushed it in 2023)
0:00 Introduction
0:41 Are mines found or made?
1:22 “It’s not difficult to raise money for good exploration projects.”
2:54 Does flow-through financing possibilities tend to yield lazy executives?
3:54 Should inferred resources be able to be included in PEAs?
5:17 Is “optimization” of an economic study usually done for promotion?
7:15 Can you pick apart your own Rick-Rule-ism proverbs?
8:57 When price is not indicative of value…what do you do?
12:18 Would you invest in a developer that needs ore-sorting tech to be economic?
13:17 In this cycle will developers try to build mines based only on a PEA?
14:10 Vetting a DFS…how can it be done?
18:44 Outsized position sizing in a portfolio
20:08 Managing a jr resource portfolio through a recession & credit crunch?
22:32 Rick Rule bullish oil and gas & Canadian oil stocks
28:47 Bullish electricity as a commodity
30:38 Investing in both O&G and renewables is not a conflict (for Rick & Bill at least)
32:18 Improving economics of decentralized renewable systems
34:21 “2023 was pretty good for me.” Rick invests for 1,000% gains.
36:32 Rick’s upcoming (Oct 21st) Royalty & Streaming Bootcamp
https://youtu.be/SDOgfrgtA7k?si=gT_s6PzQTcaiiyw4