Weekend Show – Bear Vs Bull Market Discussions For US Markets And Energy
Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show. On this Weekend’s Show we focus on a bigger picture look at both US markets and the energy sector (oil and natural gas). After some longer than expected rallies we discuss if the US markets will continue the rollover and if energy will continue to breakout.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies kicks off the show by sharing his insights on the US market pullback after the 9 month rally. As optimistic as the bulls were for the first 3 quarters of the year Rick provides a dose of reality looking at the charts and history.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Josef Schachter, Editor of The Schachter Energy Report wraps up the show by summarizing the macro drivers for oil and natural gas. We then discuss which stocks Josef thinks are undervalued and many which are paying a high dividend.
- Click here to learn more about Josef’s upcoming conference – Catch The Energy. It’s happening this year on October 14th.
Thanks guys for another great week of updates and Conference impressions. Helps a lot. I remember the days when most Conferences were experiencing low attendance and not during the shut down years. This years attendance shows to me an increase in enthusiasm for the metals space and may just be the leading indicator of short-term things to come. Bring it!
+1 Thanks Lakedweller2. Yes, while the overall sector sentiment from retails is still in the basement, there was a fair bit of activity noted from companies talking with major and mid-tier gold, silver, copper producers, royalty companies, and capital markets / financial institutions about debt financing deals for some of the development projects coming down the line. Smart money is looking to go accumulating mining stocks and quality projects at these depressed valuations.
In particular, I thought the interviews from this week with Dave Erfle and Erik Wetterling summarized the Beaver Creek conference takeaways best.
Here is Dave’s for those that may have missed it:
Here was Erik Wetterling’s takeaways from Beaver Creek and his presentation at the Colorado School Of Mines, for those that may have missed it.
The Dog Days of summer at least as far as the resource market seem to be over for now. This is generally a good time of the season for an uptick, but I am still plenty worried about a market crash coming soon. DT
What about tax loss selling?
Will we have an early tax loss selling, like in the last years?
July? September? October?
Ex, have you done any tax loss selling recently?
DOC, are you still buying or are you waiting for a new bottom?
Hi Thomas, yes I already did much of my tax loss selling this summer, mostly in July and August, but a few in September (similar to what I did last year).
I’ve been gradually repositioning in the ones I wanted to add back to the portfolio, and there are also some I’ve decided not to add back into my portfolio for now, opting instead to just add more tranches to core positions to lower their overall cost basis for the long game. Also GoGold and Goliath were added as new portfolio positions recently.
I did most of my tax selling the first part of the year. I knew I was going to have some capital gains from the sale of a house, so I took the losses early. As it stands now, I will have carry over losses which will be used to offset future miner gains if I ever have any again.
Good strategy Lakedweller2. I have some Uranium mining stock profits, short duration PM swing trade profits, and a some gambling winnings to wash out with the tax loss sales I took, and I figured waiting 31+ days after taking the loss wouldn’t see a radically different lay of the land in the gold and silver stocks, and it really hasn’t. In some cases I actually bought them back even lower than where I took the tax loss, as the stocks continued to pull down during the wash period, so it worked out to get back in at lower levels. I’m debating taking a few more tax losses by year end, but want to see if we get a fall rally first to sell into that strength. We’ll see how things develop in Q4.
Thomas, I’m slowly accumulating miners at this point. Some of them have further to fall over the next weeks and months especially into the end of the year. I’m mainly looking at those that are producing and technically washed out while waiting for others to hit my technical targets. There is no hurry since sentiment and volume continues to plunge. By the end of 2024, the worse should be over for this sector. I’m staying away from the conventional market since I believe the true secular bear is yet to growl morphing from this cyclical bear. I’m very pleased with Powell and the ultimate plate of “goodies” he will hand to those of us that have been as patient as we have with this recalcitrant precious metal market.
I always liked listening to Josef Schachter, he has been advising investors in the oil and gas markets for many years. Recently I started buying some energy stocks and they have done well, except for one which I intend to hold. I like this space and it requires some different skill sets from what I have been used to. It all also helps to expand the membrane by getting into unfamiliar territory. DT
Agreed DT. There are a lot of parallels in the oil & nat gas space to the metals mining stocks as another extractive industry, but there are a few unique nuances to it as well. It is a blessing to get a range of ideas from guests on our show like Josef Schachter, Dan Steffens, John Rubino, and Sean Brodrick in the oil patch.
The financial sector (XLF) is breaking down vs gold (GLD) which probably bodes well for our miners…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55094813587&a=1258731637
good work Matthew…It is a pairs world at this juncture…….Dollar by necessity, currently determines gold direction…This GDXU trade I have was entered in 3 tranches…..all i need is 1950 /GC but I may get 1850 first…glta
UUP vs GLD is at important resistance that if broken could send gold toward your 1850 level…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85996395634&a=1482248993
true…but…look at the weekly uup chart…prices here and now have 10 fold less volume than the 10/31/22 bar they are rallying into…unheard of volume die off…somethin big is happening…
I agree which is why I called the resistance just above “important” for UUP:GLD and said that IF broken it could (not “will”) send gold toward your 1850 level. “Toward” is another key word since I think 1900-ish would hold for December gold even if UUP:GLD does break out.
Like most miners HL looks ready to surprise the bears…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35708121748&a=1476760889
October gold (chart will update to show today’s action this evening):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%5EGCV23&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19304986242&a=1492485982
Both the USD and the Canadian dollar are up since the C$ bottomed over 2 weeks ago but the C$ is up almost twice as much as the USD. This development is friendly to our miners and might be a sign that the USD’s strength is really mostly just euro weakness.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p62744041602&a=1505938989
GDX:QQQ is still trying to fill its 9/15 gap…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=11&id=p53550619314&a=1484675687
CDE hit 18% above Thursday’s low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p86941429883&a=1462989167
Neither gold nor GLD have touched let alone tested their 50 week MAs this year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p80640591297&a=1477865741
The new low for SILJ:SLV shows some bullish divergences. We’ll soon know if they mean anything…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p61484479605&a=1499864692
The USD is up about 6.6% since it bottomed in July yet gold is down just 1.4% during the same period. This shows that much of the dollar’s strength has really been euro weakness, smoke and mirrors.
https://tinyurl.com/37x8p7hh
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