John Rubino – Inflation And Recession Expectations, US Equities, Gold, Oil, Copper, and Uranium
John Rubino, publisher of his newsletter over at Substack, joins us for wide-ranging discussion on the macroeconomic implications for markets, based on the potential for an uptick in commodities prices and inflation metrics, and how those tie into the future health of the economy, and expectations around both monetary and fiscal policies. We review prior crashes and recessions and some of the leading or lagging economic data we had heading into those events. We also debate what kind of recession we may see and different scenarios on how that may affect general US equity markets and the precious metals sector.
With regards to gold stocks, John is cautiously acquiring the best quality names, which he believes have management teams that are executing on doing the right kind of good work to keep building value. By focusing on the best-in-class quality companies, he feels they will survive and bounce back, regardless of if we see a sector-wide correction in a “sell-everything” type of broad market correction or crash. He highlights both the series of consistently high-grade drill results from Snowline Gold (SGD) (SNWGF), or the solid operations report and continued production growth from Sandstorm Gold (SSL) (SAND) on their royalty portfolio, as examples of solid companies that he has been comfortable accumulating, even with the potential risk of a sector pullback.
We wrap up talking about how he views the commodities sector at present and heading into the potential economic contraction. John still sees good opportunities for investors who are using the pullbacks in many resource companies to continue acquiring the best quality companies in the oil, copper, and uranium stocks and remains bullish on them in the medium-term to longer-term.
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US Department Of Energy Adds Copper To Critical Minerals List
August 3, 2023 – Mining.com
“The US Department of Energy (DOE) this week officially added copper to its critical materials list, marking the first time a US government agency has included copper on one of its official “critical” lists, following the examples of the European Union, Japan, India, Canada and China.”
“2023 Critical Materials Assessment, which evaluated materials for their criticality to global clean energy technology supply chains, focuses on key materials with high risk of supply disruption that are integral to clean energy technologies.”
https://www.mining.com/us-department-of-energy-adds-copper-to-critical-minerals-list/
Another government edict, “let’s add copper to the critical minerals list, great job well done guys”. The populace will see how smart we are when they are driving around in electric cars designed by our technology department.
Next up for review, the air we breathe, let’s add it to the critical elements list. We are sure to need more than the public realizes. DT
It was surprising that Copper wasn’t on the US list of “Critical Minerals” already; especially considering all the promises and bluster around EV projections by the end of this decade in 2030, etc.. etc…
I didn’t realize Copper wasn’t on the US list of critical minerals until Joe Mazumdar mentioned that in his interview last week…. We’ll that sure didn’t take long to do a 180 degree pivot… and now it is on their list. 😉
Gareth Solway on Kitco today starting to sound more like a repetitious Wall Street talking head than the guy he used to be.
Thanks for the heads up. I’ve not checked out that interview with Gareth yet, but generally he has been more accurate than many on his technical outlook on various markets the last 2+ years.
After digesting a few dozen interviews of his for several years now, I don’t get the “Wall Street talking head” vibe at all from Gareth, and he very much seems like his own guy. I’m just curious what you think has changed specifically with his answers, presentations, or way of approaching the technical setup that gives you that impression now?
I was actually thinking of inviting him on the KER show at one point, because, in general, I’ve been impressed with other interviews and information shared.
He repeated a couple of points mentioned by others last week…that’s all.
Yes try to have him on!
Sounds good. I’ll reach out to Gareth at one point soon and see if he’d like to wade into the wild waters of the KER.
Opening wiped out all of Monday’s gains in less than 5 minutes. Another example that algos drive the markets and criminals write the algos.
Yesterday my account up + 3.73%. Open today – 3.53% and as soon as it hit -3.5 % movement quit. Sure ….
They must be good as DV down in my IB account.
“Highlights from the Kitsol Vein in the Torbrit Deposit area include*:
DV23-334: 297 g/t Ag over 8.32 meters including 1,090 g/t Ag over 0.90 meters at Kitsol
DV23-336: 342 g/t Ag over 18.00 meters including 2,270 g/t Ag over 0.50 meters and 995 g/t Ag with 3.6% Pb over 0.60 meters at Kitsol
DV23-337: 496 g/t Ag over 9.57 meters including 1,100 g/t Ag over 0.73 meters at Kitsol
DV23-348: 334 g/t Ag over 3.50 meters including 672 g/t Ag over 1.34 meters at Torbrit Main, south extension
* Intervals are core length; true widths vary from 64 to 87% of core length interval (see table 1), assays are uncut
“As the flow of results from our fully funded 2023 exploration drill program have started, we continue to see successful resource expansion drilling at the Kitsol Vein, intersecting high grade silver mineralization over wide intervals, that is potentially amenable to bulk underground mining methods,” said Shawn Khunkhun, President and CEO of Dolly Varden Silver. “We are excited to have the fifth drill turning as it will allow us to allocate extra meters to exploration drilling on our priority list of targets along the Kitsault Valley trend.” ”
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“Efficiencies and excellent drill production have allowed for the additional drilling within the current budget.”
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Common sense will prevail eventually…
Start selling some of that silver, instead of just talking about it.
I’m playing it as a fall drill play and assume problems on the way to building a mine.
Dolly Varden isn’t anywhere close to producing Silver on their property, and have never indicated that was a near-term goal. Shawn has messaged a few times that he really wants to test the scale of their 7 deposit areas this year by stepping out from known mineralized areas and also pushing things down at depth below prior drilling success to look for a common feeder source.
Far more likely is that a larger company (like Hecla right next door) comes in to acquire DV and then they’ll work on developing the project further to move it into production. I’m pretty sure in having talked with Shawn multiple times, that a takeover and sale of the company is their preferred exit strategy, once they’ve got the project to critical mass.
Yep, some nice drill hits from DV to kick off today, and so yes, as Lakedweller2 already mentioned, a good reason to sell off the stock…. (??) Haha! These markets have been whacked-out for a while now, but it just goes to show some shareholders are using any news as a liquidity event to exit positions, even if the news is great. It was that way last summer in both July and September…. until it wasn’t…. then the stocks rallied from late Sept/early Oct through April. Personally, I’m taking advantage of further sell-downs in the sector to add to quality names during capitulation trades, and have been topping off positions in my portfolio since late July.
GDX day…I do not know what will occur…but if you are a trader…this is a buy point…for reasons…lighter volume into swing so far….TD9 count, ideal……oversold oscillators…..intra-day oscillators support an up move(sort of)…inside the gdx some top equities look ok…not a great spot but it needs to be tried…….the dollar is topping , at least for a while….Why is this a good spot to buy…because your stop is able to be a percent below the lows……risk/reward is optimal…that means exactly that…prepare to eject…..if not this would be an average in point…and i am short spx but not expect this as the final top(speculation)…
..https://tos.mx/NuuOofO
The Fed Hits 3,000% Inflation
0% percent inflation over 130 years before the Fed, compared to 3,000% inflation in less than 110 years after the Fed.
Quoth The Raven – Aug 8, 2023
“The Federal Reserve Act was passed by Congress in December of 1913, and the regional Federal Reserve banks opened for business in November of 1914. Comparing the price level at the end of 1914 to the level today tells us how much total price inflation the US economy has experienced under the Fed.”
“The consumer price index (CPI) is the most widely used and longest-running measure of the US price level, but there are disagreements about the accuracy of historical CPI. MeasuringWorth aggregates macroeconomic data such as interest rates, economic production, and the price-level from the most reliable historical sources.”
“Historical CPI data from MeasuringWorth show that the US price level rose by 2,920.2 percent from 1914 through 2022. While the MeasuringWorth dataset provides only annual data, we can add monthly data for the current year from the official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to BLS data, the CPI rose by 2.74 percent (not seasonally adjusted) in the first half of 2023.”
“That brings total inflation under the Fed to 3,000.2 percent.”
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-fed-hits-3000-percent-inflation
So when people state Gold is a store of value… it is against precisely that… the ravages of unbridled inflation due to the constant devaluation of fiat currencies.
Fake Fed……. not even a govt agency…..Part of the Scam of the DC CORPORATION….
Some should get up to speed on the Act of 1871…..
Agreed OOTB. We never should have allowed a central bank… especially a private cabal of banksters that have very different agendas than the citizens of this nation. But… many years later, they are still destroying the purchasing power of the greenback through inflation and waging a “fake Fed” war to fight the very inflation they created. It’s ridiculous and nefarious… but the financial charades are still unfolding…
Great comment EX………. glad you commented….
Notice that with the exception of Ron Paul no Republican presidential candidates ever say a word about the unconstitutionality of the Fed. On the contrary, Trump’s main criticism of the Fed was that it wasn’t “easy” enough (i.e., the Fed didn’t counterfeit enough) and of course Reagan loaded the nation with more debt than all previous presidents combined. No Republican president since at least Coolidge has been any better than the big Ds on this matter because there’s just one party when it comes to ALL of the policies that are most important to the health of the nation’s founding principles.
Then…then…all of them together for the last 50 years or so listened to The Fed and Banksters and deregulated everything smarter people put in place to prevent another 1929 Bank Fiasco. This time it will be worse.
You mean the last 100+ years. The Rothschild’s global central banking system has been rapidly consolidating power for them since the Fed opened its doors in 1914 and that consolidation is accelerating. The welfare-warfare model of wealth redistribution is as profitable as it is tyrannical.
ditto Matthew……… spot on……. wish more people would wake the heck up……
Most do not have a clue….
Really retarded that people in the gold space do not know crap about the FED….
And Ditto on Ronny R…. what a fraud….
Science girl @gunsnrosesgirl3
“Ants carrying a gold chain….”
https://twitter.com/gunsnrosesgirl3/status/1688594850025816072
Those ants recognize the value of gold when they see it, even if many humans don’t (yet). Haha! 🙂
Head & Shoulders Top In GDX- How Much Further Can Gold Miners Fall?
Goldfinger on 8 Aug 2023
“The VanEck Gold Miners exchange-traded fund GDX has been grinding lower in recent trading sessions, bringing it close to an area of important support ~$28.75. Zooming out on the daily chart one can quickly make out the potential for a head & shoulders pattern based on the January, April, May and July peaks….”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/head-shoulders-top-in-gdx-how-much-further-can-gold-miners-fall
HL finished 4.5% off the day’s low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78826565851&a=1475891696
Silver conversation with Keith Neumeyer
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=keith+neumeyer+soar+financially&docid=20765497469700&mid=7202A756316C73B18F4F7202A756316C73B18F4F&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
Here’s a nice table that shows the 20 best Silver drill intercepts in the first half of 2023:
Lots of well known company names that have put out repeated solid results prior to their latest zingers, like GoGold, Kuya, Aya Gold & Silver, AbraSilver, New Pacific, Vizsla, Pan American, Dolly Varden, Adriatic, Eloro, Silver Tiger, Silvercorp, etc…
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1ibvko6-726AE5F3-1F54-484B-B177-7D8C85DB4CC3.png
Lots of numbers to keep the factcheckers busy. (hour and a half)
“On today’s show I speak with Dr. Anas Alhajji, renowned energy and oil markets expert, about the disparity between the data and narrative in the energy markets as he reveals the truth directly from the source. We discuss the reality of the underestimated demand in oil and coal as well as the unrealistic expectations from renewables. We examine oil production, supply, OPEC+, and markets outlook. Are we on the brink of an energy crisis?”
so far /GC weak in face of dollar weakening…That is not bullish….Sentiment extreme?…possibly
Have I missed something on Kodiak???….quite the move suddenly and I see no news….
Kodiak has done a lot of marketing the last 2 weeks (with Proactive Investors and Goldfinger) on the back on this recent news from late July.
https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/kodiak-copper-shares-assay-results-from-three-drill
Thanks for the update Ex …..so it’s really just a false Goldfinger generated pop so to speak
Well… I wouldn’t call it a false pop, as it did pop…. more of an investor awareness pop… 😉
Companies need to market, despite some investors not liking them spending money on marketing. Those that stay holed up and quiet and think their news releases are all they need are sadly mistaken, and even the best companies or well known companies still go out every day to market their stories.
Interesting SLV fork action…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65909784406&a=1474959084
USD/JPY still rising…not a thing you want for gold strength in dollars….could be high retest…i have no volumes to see if it is dying…glta
240 minute….
Keeping Your Head Amidst Debt-Blind Madness
Matthew Piepenburg – August 6, 2023
“Notwithstanding such critiques, financial readers might equally be asking what Kipling has to do with global markets, the currency wars, inflation/deflation tensions or the US bond market? Well, given the fact that each of these financial topics, when examined closely or even broadly, are now signs of open madness, yet still consistently ignored or down-played by our leaders and media midgets, I could not help but consider the following (and opening) line of advice:”
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“If You can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs…”
Well: Can we?
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“I recognize, of course, that bonds, budgets, deficits and yield curves don’t excite the same immediate reactions as, say, Joe Biden’s now undeniably compromised mental state or who or what’s image adorns a can of Bud Light, but as I’ve said so many ways and times: Debt matters.”
“In fact, debt destroys nations. And not just sometimes, but every time.”
“Such destruction, hiding in plain sight, is creepy, because, well…it creeps up on us slowly, and then—all at once.”
“But sadly, debt data and bond markets bore most citizens. This is why the majority of invisibly taxed and intentionally enslaved American serfs probably haven’t noticed that the US Treasury Department’s quarterly net-borrowing estimates for the second half of 2023 just came out, and that number is a sickening $1.85 TRILLION.”
“Read that again. $1.85T in 6 months.”
“This is openly ignored madness. Our experts having officially lost their minds…”
https://goldswitzerland.com/keeping-your-head-amidst-debt-blind-madness/