Joe Mazumdar – A Copper Focus; Supply and Demand Imbalance, Investor Interest In The Stocks And What Drives Stocks Moving Forward
Joe Mazumdar, Editor of Exploration Insights joins us to recap the copper commentary he heard at the recent Rick Rule conference in Florida. We start with the constant commentary around the supply and demand imbalance where the world is running out of copper. This ties into a discussion on how Joe views different copper assets, many of which are large generally lower grade deposits stuck waiting for financing.
We also focus a lot on the stocks, from development down to exploration companies. It’s been a tough environment for most copper stocks with investors focused on other sectors which have produced better near term performance.
Click here to learn more about Exploration Insights and keep up to date on Joe’s work.
Copper price rally hangs on hopes for substantial China stimulus
Aug. 01, 2023 – Seeking Alpha
“Copper prices dropped Tuesday from a three-month high after Chinese manufacturing data contracted in July, following a 6% surge last month on hopes that China would launch more economic stimulus measures.”
“Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed Monday at $8,836/metric ton (HG1:COM), its highest level since April 20 and a 4% rise during the last two weeks of July, but analysts say the rally may not last if China’s support measures fall short of expectations.”
We’re staring a recession in the face; it’s only a matter of time when the fiscal stimulus wears off and reality hits. It’s a question of how deep the recession will be. Don’t expect commodities to get a significant bid anytime soon. Another pundit on kitco once again talks about gold going to new highs by the end of the year—a broken record will be right some time but the odds are we’ll have to wait until the recession pushes the Fed to begin to lower rates and the odds of that happening soon are very low. However, the time to begin to take long term positions in PM stocks is now upon us and has been since this spring. Patience for those in cash is now being rewarded. There is no hurry and you’ll be able to add for some time over the next few weeks and months. Then when we finally get breakouts from narrow monthly BBs add even more and enjoy the ride higher. Watch Newmont which is struggling here. If we have a couple of monthly closes lower then 40 we’ll be in the winter of discontent longer then even the most ardent gold bug would like to see. For a Fed chairman, Powell has proven his detractors (up to this point) wrong as far as when he would cave; of course he’s had the luxury of fiscal stimulus money floating around to make his job easier. But that’s about to run out in the next few months. The conventional market looks like it wants to double top. Regardless, the days of continual large gains are now far behind us and it’ll take a few years for the stock market to equilibrate to PE earnings that are historically a reality.
Good comments Richard, and thanks for breaking down your outlook. Yeah, it will be interesting to see how the recession unfolds, when it will unfold, and what sectors are most affected.
US Department Of Energy Adds Copper To Critical Minerals List
August 3, 2023 – Mining.com
“The US Department of Energy (DOE) this week officially added copper to its critical materials list, marking the first time a US government agency has included copper on one of its official “critical” lists, following the examples of the European Union, Japan, India, Canada and China.”
“2023 Critical Materials Assessment, which evaluated materials for their criticality to global clean energy technology supply chains, focuses on key materials with high risk of supply disruption that are integral to clean energy technologies.”
https://www.mining.com/us-department-of-energy-adds-copper-to-critical-minerals-list/
I added some more Orezone and Silvercrest today into the continued PM sector carnage the last few days. I’d been building up some dry powder recently, waiting for a rainy day pullback in quality names, and both of those companies are top class quality in my opinion (not investing advice… just sharing my perspective).
While we may have more pain in store for the sector and those stocks, and I don’t like the technical chart damage, overall I’m still very comfortable with the company fundamentals in both companies. The moves down recently in ORE and SILV were excessive, in the context of those 2 companies production profile, solid margins, exploration potential for continuing to expand near-mine resources, and the immediate optionality to potentially higher metals prices later in the year or early next year.