Dave Erfle – Key Questions And Concepts For Junior Mining Stock Due Diligence
Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review some of the key questions he asks gold and silver company management teams, as well as key concepts to understand when conducting junior mining stock due diligence.
This is a wide-ranging discussion that gets into many areas like management’s stake in the company, as well as their background and track record, how to look at different financing options and games played around these, capital groups with multiple companies or management teams serving on multiple boards, and which type of precious metals companies out of the vast array of explorers, developers, and producers that Dave sees the most risk-adjusted potential in. He highlights i-80 Gold (IAU) (IAUX) as one of his top 10 portfolio holdings as a growth-oriented producer with substantial exploration upside.
We wrap up the message of investors using this sluggish time period in the sector to do the proper due diligence on companies within their portfolio or build out their watchlists in anticipation of a break out in the PMs later in the year and heading into next year.
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Is this the bottom with Kitco abandoning the mining industry or should we wait for KER to switch its focus to S&P and Bitcoins? Will that signal the bottom?
This is the bottom. More specifically the lows happened in the last week or two.
FWIW:
Had some movement in several of mine over the last 2 days: May be the kiss of death, but they were: Fathom Nickel, Surge Battery, Emerita, Brixton, Snowline,NFG, Tectonic, Nine Mile, Eloro, Blackrock Silver.
Let’s see if the algos can tolerate it.
I just had a look at Emerita after you mentioned some movement, Emerita has turned down, I am waiting for it to hit my .29 CDN stink bid offer. Fathom nickel looks like someone wants out this morning, it must be your ALGO’s. DT
DT:
Emo is highly manipulated and you will see on the ceo.ca site, that it has a lot of trolls leading to one of the most dysfunctional sites around. It doesn’t change the fact that it had a good day Monday and continues to expand its resources. Highly price suppressed, but a lot of potential.
Fathom has been a good performer and I have taken many profits. Currently up +80%, but I don’t want to take my share total below 70,000. I will be adding. One of QHs and Crescat favorite. This is another one that had a good Monday. Mondays have been bad for an extended period for my account.
Hang in there on Emo as there is a group somewhere that wants you to be able to buy at .29 Cad or less. Not sure if you want to take them home to meet the Family, though.
I swapped some Emo for some Surge this AM, leaving their dollar amounts the same. My largest dollar amount is I-80 which I have been adding to recently. Some good drill results today.
Added: Magna had some decent drill results and having a good Cad day. I haven’t looked at the OTC..
Also, American Lithium has become involved with Surge, which could explain the movement. Might want to cross reference those two. American Lithium has also entered an agreement to spinout Macusani Uranium into an independent public company.
Added: Condor also has a little pop which is one of the Horseman’s “likes”. Something might be up. Mathew said the bottom is in.
It is interest that Tearlach Resources flagship Gabriel Project in Tonopah, Nevada, borders American Lithium’s TLC Deposit, and even though they put out very encouraging results they aren’t getting the market love for it yet. I’m interested in that from the standpoint of being a Blackrock Silver shareholder and because we cover them here on the KER, since they were the ones that created the option agreement for Tearlach Resource to start exploring Tonopah North (aka the Gabriel Project) in the first place and stand to benefit in sympathy with them on any further discoveries as they work towards their maiden resource. If it ends up getting valued anywhere close to where American Lithium has reached, that will be a nice win for both companies (Tearlach, Blackrock).
I don’t own any American Lithium either. I do own Surge and Blackrock. I mentioned that
they were involved in Surge and that may have driven the price.
On the Algo issue:
My OTC account is “Some Up, Some Down”, but overall Up. It is Up to the extent of the gains in Surge. All others cancel each other out. Nothing new, except which stock is dominating the day.
Checked my Cad account and it is Up 50% of my gain in Magna alone. Same-Same.
(IAU) (IAUX) i-80 Gold Announces High-Grade Results from Underground Drilling at Cove
7 Jun 2023
“Results Include 24.1 g/t Gold over 14.0 meters – 12.8 g/t Gold over 14.2 meters – 9.6 g/t Gold over 22.8 meters”
https://www.i80gold.com/i-80-gold-announces-high-grade-results-from-underground-drilling-at-cove/
More great drill results, and yet the market has sold off by a few percent on this positive news.
That’s just the environment we are in right now for sentiment in this sector, and we’ve seen in this in so many companies lately where good news is being sold down upon release to the market.
Regardless, as Ewan (CEO of i-80) mentioned on our interview Friday, Cove is the company’s highest grade mine and the lion’s share of the 40,000 meter drill program over the next year will be focused on defining and expanding resources here at this project, for the eventual development pipeline.
Good comments today from Taylor Dart over at ceo.ca regarding investors bemoaning the lack of market response on these good news.
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@TaylorDart “Accumulate on weakness”……ahead of the updated resource estimates.
“Investing is boring and today’s, this month’s, this quarter’s or even this year’s results don’t always translate into positive share price movement, the market is not efficient contrary to what some preach. And investing does require some patience. Kirkland Lake Gold went essentially nowhere from its May 2016 peak to early May 2017 despite reporting record production at Macassa and Fosterville, record consolidated production for FY2016, and multiple high-grade hits including 3.75 M @ 550 G/T, 8.55 @ 203 G/T, 6.9 M @ 129 G/T, 6.8 M @ 14.6 G/T, 3.8 M @ 550 G/T from Newmarket which they were set to acquire at year-end. Then once Newmarket was acquired, the company released a monster hole of 15.2 M @ 1,430 G/T in January, the stock still couldn’t hold onto any of its gains. Then in May 2017 they hit 2.8 M @ 381 G/T, 7.0 M @ 345 G/T, 1.3 M @ 645 G/T, 9.7 M @ 274.0 G/T, and 16.0 M @ 404 G/T, and the stock took off and never looked back and would go on to increase 600% over the next 3 years.”
“For those paying attention to the story, they had nearly a year to accumulate the stock but if they were impatient or put too much emphasis into day-to-day reactions from the market which clearly diverged from the results (good results but lifeless share price performance) then they they missed out. I’m not saying this is going to be a repeat and KL was obviously a huge outlier with better results (there’s only one Fosterville), but the model here is quite simple and similar which is a high-grade multi-mine producer in a Tier-1 jurisdiction with a path to steady resource and reserve growth. In i-80’s case, it’s multiple high-grades mines feeding central facilities (Lone Tree, Sage autoclave/NGM roaster per processing agreements, Ruby floatation plant (once refurbished), and i-80 has a path to being an industry leader and among the top-3 names sector-wide for production, reserves, and cash flow per share growth once this plan is put into action.”
“I diversify my portfolio with over 10 names so I don’t obsess over every tick when it comes to any short-term laggards, but this has all the ingredients to be a major winner, so I’m not certainly agonizing over every down-tick. If anything it’s an opportunity for me to top up a little more because I wouldn’t have dreamed we’d still be able to buy sub C$2.90 again with gold where it is, with FAD acquired, and with Hilltop continuing to expand in multiple directions all while being nearly one year closer to this plan coming to fruition vs. where we sat last fall.”
– Taylor Dart
I believe that HighGold Mining is one of those undervalued stocks, sometimes I start double guessing myself and wondering if they aren’t making up their drill results and that The Hindenburg will short them. Investing can leave you muttering to yourself and pacing back and forth all the while tearing up bits of paper in frantic motions. LOL!
😜
To change the subject The Bank of Canada raised interest rates another quarter of a point today, we have been leading The Federal Reserve in raising rates for the last year, HMMMMMMMM! DT
Good points DT. The line you wrote: “Investing can leave you muttering to yourself and pacing back and forth all the while tearing up bits of paper in frantic motions” gave me a chuckle. Very true!
Yes, if the Bank of Canada can pause and then hike again, then we could see something similar out of the Fed in the months to come.
TSX.v looking lame, maybe that 580 gap is back in play… Canadians are getting tired of the dubious trading schemes on this flakey index.
Myt OTC account has gone negative. Cad still up. Just another day.
Brutal sector…no wonder generalists won’t touch it
I agree, being in the junior resource sector is worse than the WWF, worse than The Octagon, it’s a blood sport like Bare knuckle fighting! DT
Michelle Makori talking about S&P. Kitco has really lost its way.
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Market-Analysis/4541/2023-06-05/Stocks-will-go-higher-by-year-end—David-Nelson