Matt Badiali – Lithium and Copper News – Chile Government For Lithium and Depressed Copper Production Out Of Codelco
Matt Badiali, Editor of the New Energy Newsletter, Published under Mangrove Investor joins us for a focus on a couple key stories out of the lithium and copper sectors.
Starting with lithium, the Chilean government recently made comments about lithium in country that has some investors worried about projects being nationalized. This news has caused a significant selloff in lithium stocks focused in Chile.
For the copper sector we recap the Codelco production results that continue to show old assets producing less copper. Matt uses this at a further example of the major supply/demand imbalance for the copper sector. There are a lot of old copper assets supplying the market that only getting older and producing less.
Hi Jerry, South Africa has an old crippled electric grid and has had for many years, most of their mines are very deep and this also presents a lot of problems getting the electrical infrastructure updated. Do you have a link that you can post for your reference on Platinum ETF’s for the mining site. It might be time to look at some platinum juniors as they have been hammered and one in particular. (PGE) Thanks, DT
from zerohedge…………today
Worsening power blackouts in South Africa are putting global platinum production at risk. As a result, investors are plowing money into platinum exchange-traded funds in response to increasing concerns about tightening supply this year.
Outages last year in Africa’s most-developed economy curbed the output of platinum, and the power crisis is worsening. According to platinum producer Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the production of the rare earth metal used in catalytic converters, electrical contacts, jewelry, pacemakers, drugs, and magnets, is expected to slide this year.
Bloomberg data showed holdings in ETFs backed by the metal soared more than 117,000 ounces last week, the most significant weekly increase since March 2019.
All the more reason to get more North American sources of Platinum and Palladium in the hopper.
Stillwater Critical Minerals in Montana is growing a monster deposit of nickel, cobalt, copper, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and gold…. Right next to Sibanye Stillwater.
Generation Mining in moving forward with construction of their PGM project in Canada.
There are other N. American companies with compelling projects too like New Age Metals, Grid Metals, Canadian Palladium, Forum Metals, Transition Metals, etc…
You are diversified………. I just concentrate on a few metals……
Gold silver and platinum…. go with what you know….
Hi Ex, could you give us your two favorite platinum plays at this moment, very few people have such a huge portfolio or have the ability to buy as many stocks as you are capable of buying and following. My two favorites are Stillwater (which I own) and Generation. I have bought Grid Metals in the past but no longer follow them. Cheers DT
Hi DT. I only have 2 PGM positions at present in the portfolio:
– Stillwater Critical Minerals (PGE.V) for growing polymetallic battery metals + PGMs deposit next to a major producer in Montana that also has a smelter
– Sylvania Platinum Limited (SLP.L) a PGMS and Base Metals tailings recovery company that I’ve held for a while and it also pays a dividend.
– In the spring of 2021 I sold my other PGM positions Jubilee Metals Group (JLP.L), Generation Mining (GENM.TO), New Age Metals (NAM.V), and Grid Metals (GRDM.V) during that crazy run higher in Palladium as they both shot up in sympathy with the rest of the sector — some of them are more exposed to Platinum than Palladium, but they normally occur together in different amounts within a deposit (and often along side of nickel or copper and sometimes gold).
Those actually all are looking interesting once again, and I’m considering adding back into the mix Jubilee Metals and Generation Mining in the not-so-distant future. I really think both companies are very underappreciated, and with Jubilee it was such a huge multi-bagger run from 2018 to 2021, that I just had to ring the register on it.
That time period of 2021 was when I pulled in my horns from 90 positions down to just over 60+ positions and when I exited not just most of my PGM positions, but many Copper positions, many Zinc positions, and later in the year many of my Uranium positions, and all of my Lithium positions. At that time I felt like most of those sectors had made big moves, and I was starting to get more interested in getting more concentrated in the Gold/Silver stocks as 2021 rolled over into 2022 and for the balance of last year. Now I’m weighted about 80% to the PMs, which is the heaviest weighting I’ve ever had to the sector since 2010-2011 when I first started trading the mining stocks.
However, I’ve been looking at Jubilee Metals again a lot lately, hovering over the buy button. I was hoping to get a bigger pop on some of the PM mining stocks first on this move higher in the metals, and then the plan was to eventually pull profits on a gold company that runs and to put those profits over into Jubilee to store, and then eventually Generation Mining next. I may just start nibbling at both Jubilee and Generation though just to get a toehold position going and force me to track them closer.
There are some other compelling projects out there besides the ones I named, but those are just the ones that most animate me. Some people like being in the larger polymetallic producers with some PGM credits like Ivanhoe or Sibanye or Anglo American, but those really aren’t my cup of tea…
DT – Thinking about the PGM companies, (Jubilee Metals in particular) got me curious to see how things were going, and I just came across this First Half 2023 update (I believe their year starts mid-year, so this would have likely been how things were going by the end of 2022).
I’ve not watched this yet, but plan to now and thought it may be worth sharing, in case anyone else was interested in their overview. Cheers!
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(JLP.L) (JUBPF) Jubilee Metals Group PLC – FY23 Half-Year Results
Mar 20, 2023
Hi again Ex, WOW! Thanks for the update on your thinking and the stocks you are watching in The Platinum sector. Jerry got the ball rolling and you delivered on your insights. NICE! DT
Thanks Ex and DT………. for all the info….
and feed back.
Thanks DT and OOTB for your ongoing contributions and a solid platinum thread here. Cheers!
Hello Matthew
I am still learning about Pitchforks, but I thought this was an example of how a stock price can be “predicted” using a Pitchfork, rather than “obvious” horizontal and/or trend lines (notice the 62% Fibonocci retracement was close (EOSE – Zinc Battery Producer)
Pichfork resolution requires patience
You have the right idea and your fork has the advantage of lining up with the trendline support that began at the December low.
Last I checked there were some useful videos on youtube dealing with pitchfork usage.
Look out below when the dollar breaks this well-proven fork support (currently just above 100):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p50351252410&a=528369444
CDE’s low today happened precisely at its rising 30 week MA and steeply rising lower daily Bollinger Band so I bought more. (Neither is shown on the following chart.)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p92313882743&a=1399452156
Chile’s Lithium Move A Further Push For Automakers To Diversify Supply Chain
By Nick Carey – Reuters – (04/24/2023)
“Chile’s move to nationalise its lithium industry adds fresh supply chain uncertainty for global carmakers facing a shortage of electric vehicle (EV) battery materials and could provide fresh urgency to find new sources of the metal.”
“Chilean President Gabriel Boric announced plans last Thursday to create a new state-owned company to control its lithium industry. The country has the world’s largest reserves of the metal and accounts for 30% of global output.”
“Automakers may be more trepidatious around committing to lithium supply deals from Chile until it’s clear what nationalisation will look like,” said Caspar Rawles, chief data officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Most automakers will have been looking for a diversified portfolio of regional supply before this anyway, but perhaps this makes other regions more appealing.”
Chile Uses An Old Copper Template For New Lithium Plan
Andy Home – Reuters – (04/25/2023)
“Chile’s assertion of state control over its lithium industry has sent shock waves through the new energy metals sector. The country’s two big lithium producers, SQM and Albemarle, have seen their share prices fall on the prospect of having to relinquish majority control of their operations or risk losing their licenses once they expire in 2030 and 2043 respectively.”
“Shares in companies such as Pilbara Minerals, Australia’s biggest lithium producer, have risen on the premise of slower investment and project growth in Chile, which hosts the world’s largest deposits of the battery metal.”
“Chile has been here before. The country nationalised its copper sector in 1971, provoking international outrage, particularly in the United States…”
https://www.reuters.com/article/metals-lithium-ahome-idUSL8N36S2Q8
Investors Panic Into Platinum ETFs As South African Power Crisis Threatens Global Supply
About time platinum gets some love…. 🙂