Weekend Show – This Weekend’s Show Is For Investors Looking At PM and Energy Stocks
Welcome to the KE Report Weekend Show! Precious metals and energy stocks continue to move higher so we focused the entire show on these sectors for investors wondering if they have missed the move or if this truly will be long term bull market.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital kicks off the show with a focus on the move in gold close to all-time highs and what other commodity companies are within his fund’s portfolio. With everyone wondering if gold will finally breakout and hold all-time highs. Following through on this we discuss when the broad move higher will come for many of the gold and silver stocks. In terms of other metals Matt shares why his thoughts on copper and lithium.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group wraps up the show with a focus on oil and gas and the underlying stocks. After a very short breakdown in March the oil price has recovered strongly along with the stocks. We start with the key oil data and when discussing the stocks, which stocks are best postioned to take advantage of the higher oil price.
Back to coal.
Windmills and Waterwheels.
Yep, and how well has all of that worked out for Germany?
Germany has proven for over a decade that it has some of the worst energy policies of any country.
When they shot their mouth off about closing their nuclear plants in 2011, and started scaling back exposure to nuclear, their plan was to big on renewables like solar and wind…. which epically failed. Then when they realized solar and wind were not going to come remotely close to the power demands their nation had, they ironically stared importing huge amounts of energy from nuclear power generation from their neighbors France. It’s like when the US banned some fracking or blocked oil/nat gas projects domestically only to import oil from the Middle East… makes no sense. (We’re really against nuclear…. except when we buy it from our neighbors to keep our lights on… 😉 )
Well, then over the last decade, Germany has greatly increased their reliance on both far dirtier and problematic coal generation power, and decided a few years back to go big on relying on nat gas power piped in from Russia, and that has been a spectacular debacle as well. Remember their foreign diplomats laughing at Trump for warning they may not want to become overly dependent on Nat Gas piped in from Russia…. Yeah… I guess they haven’t been laughing much about that anymore over the last year. Cluelessness on parade…
It’s all been a tragic comedy of how exactly not to develop or plan energy policies, only the German citizens and businesses are not laughing as their energy prices rip higher and higher to nosebleed levels. These surging energy costs are actually now an issue across many European countries, but Germany has been front and center as the poster child for what not to do. Instead of closing down 3 nuclear plants they should be building 3 more, and if they even cared about their carbon footprint (which I don’t believe they actually do), then using more coal and nat gas is worse than nuclear, not better. Germany’s bluster about energy policy is all a tired trope and failed policy at this point.
Meanwhile there are plenty of countries in Asia, the Middle East, and South America building more large next generation nuclear plants and even putting focus on building out fleets of Small Nuclear Reactors.
The demand increase for Uranium over the next few years is creating a larger and larger gap between supply that can quickly come online. Now that most of the secondary supply of Uranium has been mopped up handily out of the spot market over the last 2 years, even the utility companies are finally seeing the light. Over the last year utility companies have finally come to their senses and started up their contracting cycle with uranium companies again (most of those term contracts have been in the high $50s and low $60s over the last 6 months and likely will need to be raised to even higher prices to incentivize more production to come online).
Most experts that follow the sector expect to see term pricing in the mid to high $60s later this year, and in the $70s or $80s 2 years out. Of course there are some calling for tripe-digit uranium again, but just rationally if the pricing does get into the high $60s to $80s, there is going to be a solid response in the U stocks.
We have seen it time after time when a well-run company gets taken over by bad management, and it goes bankrupt. The German politicians of the Environmental “Green Party”, had begun their course of treatment with plenty of publicity but could not well change the course of prescription without embarrassment for themselves and their party. So, they soldier on destroying the very fabric that has held Europe together without a thought of the constituents and the public that put them there to protect their interests.
The German economy will soon be in what appears to be a business depression, with factories shutting down, stocks skidding, and bread lines in the street. That is about how far the politicians in Germany will go in facing the reality of hard times, watching as the story unfolds and not able to lead. As Germany goes so does the rest of Europe as the contagion takes hold.
Yep… agreed DT. It’s sad but true….
It’s all by design…Tikkum Olam
..This is a religious, race war by international commuist/zionist..jewry..on all People’s &; nations of European decent..( so called White Civilization )) Jewish racism &; Supremacy is the world’s biggest problem..They need to payout reparations, for all their destruction ..Throughout real history
https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7
Final NatGas dip coming?
PM pause, then up?
Quite an island reversal on GLD!
The February 3rd – March 10th Island Reversal below?
(Hidden on the Weekly chart but clear on the Daily.)
Based on closing prices, the same for SLV.
Looks Like………. The ORPHAN SECTION………. has opened up on the Mining site…. 🙂
GOOD …..because it all goes together….. 🙂
It is a 40% dilution at IPT with their latest pp. I take that back asking if Fred Davidson is a scheister. Should have asked, aren’t the whole lot of them at IPT a bunch of scheisters?
People wonder why placements take place at such low prices when they could have raised more at a higher price. This might be a partial answer to that question.
“People” wonder why placements take place at such low prices but I don’t. It makes perfect sense. Only dumb money is likely to step up to buy well above the recent average trading range and it could be awhile before it shows up. Which could be a problem when planning drill programs that are just months or possibly weeks away. In addition, there’s a potential strategy to making some institutional investors happy since some have a lot of clients to promote the shares to. Refusal to deal with such big boys can equal a de facto boycott of your company’s shares. On a related note, did you know that IPT’s refusal to blow money on NI-43-101 resource calculations is due to the fact that management has no need nor intention to kneel before investment banks for funding?
As I’ve said before, you’d be hard pressed to find another $40M silver producer/explorer that’s in better financial shape than IPT or has a better risk-reward profile. I hold a ton of IPT but would still love to hear about any similar or better opportunities.
Accept your explanation. The whole thing just seemed clumsy and badly timed. I’ve also looked long and hard for a comparable silver opportunity and haven’t found one.
Considering IPT’s cash position before the financing I’d be much more critical of the timing if not for recent the acquisition of the zinc company. I don’t know with any precision the details of their financial needs this year so I’m giving Fred the benefit of the doubt based on his many years of being more prudent than most on average. I have been critical of his timing in the past believe it or not but never close to the point that I’ve considered avoiding the company.
Based on my outlook for silver and even zinc as well as IPT’s internal strength of the last few years I am confident that its upside potential is greater than it’s ever been and that the effects of this dilution will be overcome easily. By the way, almost 5 million warrants expire worthless tomorrow.
Cash represents over 40% of IPT’s current market cap if I’m not mistaken and the new uptrend in silver will boost the bottom line virtually instantly.
From the MD&A:
IMPACT’s key initiatives for the year 2023 and beyond:
1. Continue extensive development of the Guadalupe mine, including the newly developed Pachuqueno
area while optimizing production with a focus on maximizing cash flows from its other mining
operations. This work has been accompanied by upgrading of the underground railroad facility and an
extensive underground drilling program that has identified a number of veins in the immediate area.
Further development is also occurring at the San Ramon mine, as the new stope San Ramon South is
being developed and opening of the historic Alacran gold-silver mine.
2. During 2022, IMPACT conducted an aggressive exploration program, including a diamond drill program
that was in excess of 22,000 m. The program was focused on discovery and definition of additional highgrade silver and gold zones for near and longer-term mining. With the current success combined with
the operational efficiencies of its own drills, the Company plans a number of additional programs during
2023 which, depending on the price of silver, could approach an additional 10,000 m of drilling across
the Company’s extensive land package.
3. Subject to the completion of the acquisition of the Plomosas mine, IMPACT plans to further expand
production there in a two-phase program, initially by rehabilitating the current facilities and
infrastructure. The objective is to initially reach 150 to 200 tpd of production while conducting an
exploration and drill program that could anticipate a further increase in production.
4. Subject to market conditions and current technical studies including ore sorting as well as expanding
the current pilot plant and infrastructure, IMPACT is looking to potentially restart production at the
Capire open pit mine in a suitable metal price environment.
5. Where prudent, the Company will continue to expand its ESG activities focusing on community and
environmental issues.
6. IMPACT will continue its staged review of other opportunities for advanced development and mining
opportunities in Mexico and elsewhere.
Matthew, PAAS is sitting on a billion oz of silver in Guatemala and Argentina if they can ever get permits to mine it. Eloro may have even more silver than that in Bolivia. KUYAF, DOLLF, and WAMFF are also good silver plays. And there’s always PSLV and WPM for silver with less risk.
What do you think of EXK, HL, CDE, and AG?
China might have something to do with that………
How Argentina Has Become China’s Foothold In Latin America
China has become one of Argentina’s most important trading partners and is increasing its military bases in the country. As China seeks to challenge the liberal world order, Argentina risks rifts with other key allies.
https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/argentina-china-in-americas
Bonzo, there are several good silver plays and some that will probably way outperform IPT. My point about its risk-reward was specific to its market cap combined with its upside potential. I believe it is uniquely low risk relative to peers that offer similar upside due its production and management expertise as well as its jurisdiction within Mexico and its diversified assets.
Everything you listed will probably perform well and I like EXK, HL, CDE, and AG but only directly own HL at the moment (sold my new CDE position the other day and will soon buy it back).
Why take risk with individual silver stocks just buy SILJ which owns all above and more to balance exposure in jurisdiction risk and if mgmt or issues with funding etc.
That’s perfectly reasonable and SILJ has proven itself. It went up 5x in the first half of 2016 and I own it now. The main reason to take a chance with individual companies and especially the explorers is the potential for much greater gains. Of course that potential comes with the risk of much greater losses as well.
Thanks, Matthew. When silver goes to $500 all those silver miners should soar, unless Amlo and Biden seize the mines, or if Biden starts WWIII.
Hi Matthew, I know you own a ton or tonnes of IPT so when are you going to sell so I can get out of the way beforehand. I don’t want to be on a ship when it is sinking! LOL! DT😉
DT, I’m sure it will take me quite awhile to exit IPT when I decide it’s time but it won’t be anytime soon as far as I can tell!
Ever wondered why many people have an attraction to gold? As one person put it, “Seems almost whimsical that we collectively decided this element on the periodic table should have value.”
Interesting article on the topic: The Evolution of Our Golden Desire
https://www.goldprospectors.org/News/ArtMID/406/ArticleID/828/The-Evolution-of-Our-Golden-Desire
Snip: “According to Vice, our obsession with “all that sparkles” dates back as early as 40,000 BCE during the Upper Paleolithic era. Back then, early humans known as Cro-Magnons carved flint tools out of polished, colorful stones creating a sheen so incredible it was still visible when dug up by archeologists many centuries later. These prehistoric humans also used mica and pyrite to accent cave paintings with that desired shimmer.
Later Mayans evolved this practice, adorning their temples with mica-powdered pigments. They perfected gold artisanry using embossing and engraving techniques to embellish golden crowns, breastplates, and other ornaments.”
What Happens To Your Debt When The Dollar Dies.
“A monetary duopoly is more likely, based upon Gold ($3000 in current terms) and a basket of commodities. The Dollar will not die — it will compete, possibly well, after the big ‘cleanup’.” – BDC
BDC:
All fiat currencies die eventually, The American dollar is no exception. It has happened before in your history. All countries are working towards CBDC’s. There is no way three hundred trillion dollars of World debt won’t crash the system. The U.S. is the most indebted nation the World has ever seen. There will be a reset and then they will introduce a digital currency which must be backed by gold or silver or a combination of both. I don’t think digital currencies will last either because the temptation to print money out of thin air by The Fed and the politicians will seal its fate as well. DT
We’ll see. “All in the unfolding of time.” – Ed Hart
I think it was “All in the fullness of time.”
Many years ago…lol.
The Gold-Silver ratio will probably take out its low of two years ago sooner than most expect.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p30675814218&a=1394384043
The USD has been supported by falling speed line and fork support for the last 3 weeks and looks like it finally wants to bounce. If so it would be consistent with the looks of the metals right now which threaten a short term correction.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p15391893040&a=528369444
Why not on a Monday…. Perfect day for another down adventure.
That would be perfect. Get the weakness out of the way by Wednesday and then finish yet another week higher.
Aside from short term overbought readings there’s really nothing bearish about the sector at all. I’m betting we won’t see an intermediate top until at least the end of May.
It has nothing to do with mining or politics but here’s brilliant piece of art performed live that I think virtually everyone can relate to on some level…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_nc1IVoMxc
A little stressful for Tax Weekend. Needed Johnny Mathis.
The same guy does a great job covering Bob Marley…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSeCuR51rek
And even James Brown…
https://youtu.be/d8nBzrhd8Ro?list=TLPQMTcwNDIwMjME6U4En6NE3Q&t=154
Interesting new job for Jeff Deist (he was a regular guest on KER for those who came later):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/monetary-metals-welcomes-jeff-deist-124700666.html
Yes Matthew, Jeff Deist is a smart guy and well spoken, the boys (Cory and Shad) should bring him back on the show for an interview. He is a great fit for The Ker team. DT ✔
Good idea guys. Yeah, it’s been a while since Jeff D. has been on the political side of the show, and now that he is focused on working with Monetary Metals it makes sense to get him on the economic side of things. We’ll see if we can get reconnected sometime down the road.
Gold Futures Nearing Technical Breakout Above $2100
David Erfle – Friday April 14th, 2023
“After posting an all-time high on both a monthly and quarterly basis at the end of March, Gold Futures are nearing blue sky territory above the all-time high of $2089 made in August 2020. The most actively traded Gold Futures contract closed at $2055 on Thursday, looking to make a weekly all-time high close later today. Bullion is up about 12% year to date, whereas the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained about 8%.”
“With gold’s current momentum, it is only a matter of time before bullion prints a monthly close above $2100 to signal a technical breakout in the metal of kings. To understand the importance of what is likely about to unfold in the gold complex, we should let history be our guide…”
https://mailchi.mp/9b15411bf075/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601809
‘We Are By No Means Finished With Stress To The Financial System’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (04/15/2023)
The gold-silver miners have massive potential versus the stock market, probably on par with or better than the action that began in 1979.
GDX:SPY at 3 year resistance that won’t hold for long:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0157253336c&a=1387721436&r=1681710477615&cmd=print
No need to fear if silver pulls back 5 or 6 percent from here…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p30254393260&a=1376401708
Doomberg on Uranium, Oil, Coal, Natural Gas
Resource Talks – Apr 15, 2023
“In this clip specifically, Doomberg talked about uranium, oil, coal, natural gas, copper, battery metals and other commodities.”
“We would be broadly bullish oil, we would be carefully observing us domestic natural gas market, and we would be bullish uranium, and we would be market-neutral on coal – from a demand perspective”, Doomberg told me.
“I think that there is a cartel of oil producers that would like to see 80-100 dollar oil, and that puts a floor under the price of oil, whereas with natural gas it’s a whole different dynamic. Coal is properly priced, and uranium has a lot of challenges that people need to be aware of”, he added.
However, on uranium he also said that “there are lots of scenarios in which uranium could fly in a contracting economy. It’s very difficult to find those scenarios for companies like FedEx”.
On industrials & base metals, Doomberg said: “we would be hesitant around names that are linked to the economic cycle.”
Thanks! … Caught this via the comments:
Digital Currency Monetary Authority unveils its CBDC
“The CBDC – named Universal Monetary Unit (UMU) – is legally a money commodity and can transact in any legal tender settlement currency, and functions like a CBDC to enforce banking regulations and to protect the financial integrity of the international banking system.”
“Banks can attach SWIFT Codes and bank accounts to a UMU digital currency wallet and transaction SWIFT-like cross-border payments over digital currency rails completely bypassing the correspondent banking system at best-priced wholesale FX rates and with instantaneous real-time settlement.”
https://fintech.global/2023/04/14/digital-currency-monetary-authority-unveils-its-cbdc/
But Russia was kicked out of SWIFT!
Recent Doomberg article – https://doomberg.substack.com/p/guilt-by-association
Yep, Doomberg is an interesting follow…
Current NG1 – https://www.tradingview.com/x/4pf4NI9S/
if DXY closes over 4/10 swing high…the dollar will run up…glta
102.807
Once upon a time, in a Land far, far away….
(another Monday)
Added: Miners wouldn’t be down if that meteor hadn’t knocked the Earth out of its orbit … oh, that didn’t happen? Must just be the algos then.
Ha! Good one Lakedweller2. I appreciate the humor on the slow start to this week in the markets.
Ronan Manly put out an article today saying the JPM traders that spoofed the metals markets for years and were convicted, now are appealing and say their trading didn’t hurt anyone. Obviously their legal counsel should not be given typewriters while in the secure portion of the mental hospital. (Article on gata.org)
Imagine using the logic that JP Morgan is on other crimes as a defense…
Yeah, we robbed the store and stole a lot of goods,… but we didn’t hurt anybody… (good grief)
Canada’s Provinces Look To Nuclear Energy as Clean Energy.
Yep, more and more countries are seeing the value of adding more nuclear capacity, and the seat at the table that nuclear energy needs to have as part of the mix of energy generation.
/NG weekly…market action repeats over and over….stare at the chart…same chart posted 6 weeks ago…same this bottom as all the others…glta
in a bull run buy the first Gartley Buy….buy a small ABCD down or a .382 retrace…
I decided to pick up an initial tranche in Comstock Resources (CRK) today at $11.11, due to their mostly Nat Gas focus, and because they’ve essentially been chopped in half in valuation since their peak at $22.11 last year when natty gas prices were surging.
another endless good looking real company…..weekly CRK looks to be basing imho…..the OUL(oscillator unchange line) red thick line acted as resistance to this move…have to respect that fact…a close over the OUL would be a confirmed buy if w volumes…..this final ABC down may close the deal….a re-test of the td9 breakout bar price level would bring me in…just have to do it…https://tos.mx/BzGAJrb
thank you for sharing this company Excelsior!…I have never seen a spread sheet I liked…So I trade indexes…lmao
Gold looks like it’s starting a short term correction but I wonder if it will be like the one it had in December in which price chopped sideways and higher. If so it would be another display of bullish strength…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p61865588960&a=1394952206
GDXJ’s high last week represented a 70 percent move off of September’s low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44850511145&a=1394944213
Glad I sold CDE and others when I did and bought COPX…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE%3ACOPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p56666962064&a=1394075394
The oil patch is going to underperform the gold miners for a long time.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH%3A%24HUI&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p29398231868&a=1082396476
THIS IS NUTS! Germany is slated to close its three final nuclear power plants today. This according to CNN.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-new-era-germany-quits-nuclear-power-closing-its-final-three-plants/ar-AA19T4x5?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=0aec7cde4b1b41c6ab1f7b6ea401163d&ei=25