“He has achieved success who has lived well, laughed often, and loved much;
Who has enjoyed the trust of pure women, the respect of intelligent men and the love of little children;
Who has filled his niche and accomplished his task;
Who has never lacked appreciation of Earth’s beauty or failed to express it;
Who has left the world better than he found it,
Whether an improved poppy, a perfect poem, or a rescued soul;
Who has always looked for the best in others and given them the best he had;
Whose life was an inspiration;
Whose memory a benediction.”

― Bessie Anderson Stanley,

Dollar Firms As US jobs Report Backs Fed hike In May

Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss – Reuters – Apr 07, 2023

“The dollar strengthened on Friday after data showed an increase in jobs in the world’s largest economy last month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates next month.”

“Prior to the jobs report, the rate futures market had been betting that the Fed would pause at the May policy meeting. The market has now priced in a 70% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), though multiple rate cuts have also been factored in by the end of the year.”

“Friday’s data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 236,000 in March, in line with forecasts of 239,000. Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000 as previously reported.”

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-rises-after-us-jobs-data-3050891

+1 Agreed DT. I was just ranting about some of these juicy outsized moves higher lately on the Calibre Mining thread/blog, and pointing out the easiest money is typically made buying into the F.U.D. (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), especially when the retail herds over-react to the downside.

Then when things turn up, they get re-rated back higher again sharply and those are the easiest gains, for those with the contrarian mindset to buy when there is blood in the streets. People love to think they are contrarians, but most people are just momentum traders — a point that Erik Wetterling has made in multiple interviews and I agree with that whole-heartedly.

When I was posting about buying into over 2 dozen PM stocks back last July and September, and deploying my remaining dry powder, there were a few others on here buying into the technically oversold situation and silly valuations we were seeing across the sector,…. but there not many. It always feels lonely buying into weakness and oversold markets…. especially when most are suggesting caution or patience.

Most people we saw posting here at the KER or Ceo.ca or Seeking Alpha, or on Twitter or on YouTube videos or on other resource chat boards I follow, or the guests that we spoke to when bringing them on the show were mostly cowering in cash at exactly the wrong time. (then were even some clowns vocally posting on here repeatedly advising and warning everyone to sell everything at those low points to go into cash… man, what terrible advice that was for anyone that listed to that nonsense).

I don’t remember a time ever, like late last summer and early fall, when there were more people bragging on the huge amounts of cash they were sitting on, but that was clearly the wrong move…. not just for the precious metals, but even for the general markets, or cryptos, etc…. Almost everything has been on a rip higher since Sept/Oct, because that is when the dollar started rolling over faster in harmony with interest rates starting to pull back.

People that were beating on their chests about their cash balances, were just proving once again, that they couldn’t spot good fundamental valuations or technically oversold situations. I made it a little trigger for myself, that every time people said they were 40% cash or 60% cash or 80% cash, that I would go buy something with my cash, because normally the herd is wrong… especially when they are scared. Ironically, those same people (most of them really sharp guys) should have been beating their chests about what they were buying with their cash, but alas, there are always only a few buying when the poop hits the fan. This is why most fail at investing… they refuse to buy low.

I remember it being just as lonely to be buying in Mar/Apr of 2020 during the pandemic crash, and looking for any spare money I could throw at the markets, when most were back to cowering in cash and selling lows, instead of deploying capital to pick up the good bargains. When I mentioned to people I was buying everything I could PM stocks, Lithium stocks, Uranium stocks, Copper stocks, PGM/Nickel stocks, Oil stocks…. Most people were too worried that that world was ending. I must have asked a dozen people…. “Yeah, but what if this is all a huge over-reaction (which it was) and the world doesn’t end (which it didn’t)?”

Their fear kept them from taking the right logical action. I even used the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis as a prior example where people thought the financial world was ending…. but it clearly didn’t… and that was a great time to have been deploying capital. Of course we got the trite mantra back “Yeah… but this time is different.” (nope, it’s never different, just a different excuse to spook the markets, and savvy investors buy most heavily into the most hated markets. Period.

Even off-mic with some of the folks we interview on the show, when the sentiment was so rough late last summer and early fall, we’d chat for a bit, and when people asked me what I was doing, I mentioned deploying my dry powder, of course, into the crazy valuations we were seeing.

Several people said things like “just be careful” or “you’re braver than I am” or “Yeah, good luck, but I’m going to wait and see how things play out…” You could hear the hesitation and concern in their voices, because the only outcome they could see was for things to keep heading lower, and the concept of “buying low” was definitely not something on their minds. There were a few exceptions that did buy into the lows, like Dave Erfle, but not many of them.

We had technicians that warned, “Oh, I wouldn’t be buying here because these stocks are going to retrace down much lower….” or “these things could go all the way back to their 2015 lows…”
(well lower never came and they missed buying low once again).

We had fundamental guys in the sector and even many company executives that said “Yeah, for now I’m just sitting in these really underwater stocks and hoping we see the sector improve.” When I’d press them on why they were not buying into it, they were concerned of waterfall declines like 2013 or that there could be years before things improved. WTF?? It was a totally different macro backdrop than then and the PMs were no longer widely held so a big washout for years was never in the cards.

When we talked to generalists, they mostly snubbed their nose at gold, silver, and the PM stocks and were completely disinterested. Those same people now are more kind to the PMs, now that it is obvious, and they just shrug it off as “Well, I missed that move…” Yeah…. you guys did miss that move and it was easy money. Again there were exceptions like Dana Lyons and Jesse Felder that were accumulating into the weakness the end of last year, but they were exceptions…. because most folks just had zero interest in buying value or buying low and couldn’t see a positive path forward in the PMs.

However, as we know, and see all the time in the markets, sentiment can swiftly change. By the VRIC, after 4-5 months of the PM sector rallying from Sept into January then some of the companies were getting a bit more chipper and starting to buy their own stocks, and newsletter writers were getting more encouraged, and funds were starting to consider getting in on financings. Heck, even generalists that don’t track this sector that closely were saying nice things about the “pet rock” once again.

Of course this brief peak in sentiment marketed a short-term top, and February was a harsh corrective month, moving into early March, where most folks flip-flopped once again to throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and assuming it was another false move. I guess a $350 move in Gold, and move from $17.40 to $24.77 in Silver, and 50%+ moves in the PM mining ETFs were just a false rally. (OK??)

Then we see the PMs rally big again in March and into early April, and those same Doubting Thomas folks were back to… “Hey, gold and silver here are looking pretty good.” (Oh really?) Look folks, the PMs have been looking good for the last half a year for 6 months…. Why did it take a banking crisis for you to wake up that gold is still a safe haven? It’s been one for 5,000 years now, and central banks have been acquiring the “barbarous relic” in record amounts for just that reason.

Overall, in the more widely followed PM mining stocks, they’ve also been outperforming the moves in the metals, even if some of the tinier juniors haven’t woken up yet… which is how it is at every turn… every time…. the producers, royalty companies, and larger developers move first, then over time the capital works it’s way down the risk curve and the juniors start getting a bid. We’ve seen more junior start moving over the last month or so, which is a good sign, but people could have positioned in the larger companies for a number of months last year, and even if they didn’t catch the exact bottom, they could have still had really nice double-digit gains. If you made 20% 30% 50% in 4-5 months by purchasing producers or advanced developers that were destined to move on higher metals prices, then would you have more money to deploy into junior drill plays now? (of course you would, but few approach this sector logically)

Just to be clear, most investors and even most well-know pundits are not contrarians or value investors… nor are they equipped emotionally to know how to buy low…. because they repeatedly demonstrate that they can not… be it coming out of late 2015/early 2016, or the fall of 2018, or the spring of 2019, or the pandemic crash of 2020, or the smash down in the 2nd half of 2022. When prices were low, they were fearful, and not value investors.

Most investors are merely trend followers, and momentum traders, suffering from recency bias. Last year and all the previous low points just referenced, they operate from the vantage point of what just happened, instead of probabilistically what will happen. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line, no trends last forever, and sentiment will always swing on a dime. Most people last year had the playbook that since the trend had been down, they were extrapolating that out to infinity, instead of seizing on the opportunity staring them right in the face. Most “investors” don’t really like buying low or selling high. Instead, as we’ve said on here for years, they like “crying low, and buying high.”

Some things never change… especially human nature, and people ruled by their emotions, instead of logic.

I trade stocks in 5 different currencies and constantly in and out of those five in my IB account. USD cash balance gets high interest rate so lately I’ve been selling options and collecting interest on those premiums as well.