Joel Elconin – A Strong End To Q1 2023; Markets, Metals, Commodities All Up
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website joins us to discuss the Q1 close for markets. Everything outside of the USD are looking to close the quarter in positive territory.
We look at big tech leading markets, gold closing near $2,000/oz, oil bouncing and safe asset also getting a buy. It’s a very different market compared to last year. Expectations now for a near term Fed pause and the possibility of the US banking issues behind us.
On April 3rd at 7am Joel will be hosting a webinar focused on a Q2 2023 Market Outlook. “Join PreMarket Prep’s Joel Elconin and Dennis Dick along with special guests for a preview of what Q2 2023 has in store for the markets! Find out what stocks to keep an eye on and what technical levels to watch in the coming months.“
Click here to find out more and sign up to be notified on the Webinar.
Click here to visit Joel’s PreMarket Prep website.
Kootenay, Impact, Defiance and Big Ridge all had a good up follow through day after a 10%+ day yesterday, that shows strength to me.
Well…. Gold did make an all time quarterly closing high today at $1986.20.
(prior highest quarterly closing was $1953)
Prior highest monthly close was $1986 and we closed there today, but it’s at essentially tied, at the highest monthly close level.
Overall this very bullish technically, especially for the longer term, but in asking a number of more generalists about it, they didn’t seem to care much about it.
As has been discussed a lot recently, ultimately it will take Gold breaking out to new all-time highs at $2100+ to generate the real headline stories and catch the attention of momentum traders.
Still, overall, this was a very constructive weekly/monthly/quarterly close in the yellow metal.
It’s nice, from a contrarian sentiment point of view, that there is hardly any cheering or fanfare about this latest move higher in gold, or that new records were broken today. At this point, hardly anybody cares…. So many are merely waiting for the other shoe to drop, and for the rug to be pulled out once again. At this point sentiment is perfect for quietly climbing the wall of worry.
Now short-term, maybe we do see a little bump in rates and the dollar, and the PMs push back a bit, so that could consolidate things back down. While that is still quite probable in the weeks or month to come, and it may fail to break and hold $2000 on weekly/monthly on this attempt, it is also still possible that it could.
What if the rates and the dollar don’t keep rising too meaningfully? What if Gold rises with them? Not as likely maybe, but still a possibility.
It’s just interesting that so many are already preparing for the next corrective move down, without having really appreciated the move up in the metals or the mining stocks lately back out of the funk they were in during February and early March. Silver had broken down briefly intraday below $20, and now it is solidly above $24. Many mining stocks are up double-digits just since their lows a few weeks back.
Again, the lack of positive comments, lack of any celebrating or cheering, or even limited comments on how well certain stocks have been doing is actually a great contrarian signal.
When there are hundreds of comments on here high-fiving the performance of the sector, then we’ll know it’s time to lighten up the load a bit and start pulling profits.
Ever Upward!
The new all-time high monthly close happened by 30 cents but that counts! There’s also a breakout of the the resistance based on the highest 3 monthly closes and it’s not just barely…..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90873320943&a=1346870312&r=1680297399947&cmd=print
Gold also now has its first monthly MACD and TSI buy signals in 4 years. The default 12,26,9 MACD is not shown on my chart but it is on a brand new buy signal that looks similar to the also new TSI buy signal.
Good chart and points Matthew.
Yes, lot’s of solid constructive data is being stacked up for gold technically.
Overall this very bullish technically, especially for the longer term, but in asking a number of more generalists about it, they didn’t seem to care much about it.
The reality of things and charts are amazing! They can hold you accountable for a long period than one make think. My personal analysis continues to show what I said, however I seem to be a minority thinker on this side. Contrarian thinker is a possibility.
I’m a bull but a I’m also now a logical thinker and have mentioned repeatedly that a triple top on the handle is here. No one will change my mind. I personally was first to tell you all this on this forum and sorry to be the barrier of bad news bad on a short term basis April and may will send the explorers, developers and some small cap back down.
The other day a friend of mine who never has been invested in gold said gold is going to $3000 that was enough caution for me. Im glad I switched course in the interim so don’t attack a long term trader, im not here to make small gains but large ones. So it is advised for those who think similar that may will be a buying and probably a last time opportunity. This triple top will have April and may go lower.
For the ones who want a different perspective and have cash wait for this opportunity more specifically for smaller companies. The close on the monthly was almost bingo to my target.
For the ones who swing trade or mentioned buy the dips I wouldn’t buy till may possibly as we are going to roll over in the market. I have a target for gold and have cash waiting.
The low from September is in! But we are not yet off to the races. Remember I called April Cross on the monthly and may down.. not one person said anything. Ex said thank you for your contribution.
We will fly in June! Be ready and stacked…
The big producers by the way are performing like the chart I sent months ago in the monthly for hui/xau and their destination is much higher.
Good luck to all
Glen
With all due respect Glen the best traders I know have been calling for a pullback for awhile so maybe your friend has seen the light and is not a contrary indicator.
The odds do not favor your view but of course there will be short term pullbacks and maybe soon.
CDE isn’t the only one that’s overbought and finally ready for a break but any pullback will probably be brief even if sharp and deep. The weekly and monthly charts are just too freshly bullish at a time of many other very bullish developments.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26858261505&a=1381735994
I think we’re going to see a bit of a challenge later in the month and into summer. April typically strong so think we set up a nice sell in May and go away as I’ve planned all year long. I think general stock market will peak soon with tough Summer and Fall. I’ll be trimming down in next couple weeks and hopefully pick up some bargains this summer for a big Fall rally. Probably won’t sell the metals though just in case. Platinum/Gold/Silver permanent holds at this point – I don’t think the downside risk of 20-30% is worth missing a blastoff of 100-200% (if not more, especially silver). Miners more of buy dips and sell rips. GLTA!
IPT delivered its strongest weekly RSI reading since it traded over $1.00 more than 2 years ago. Up 36% for the week:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p86949854618&a=1330010111
Major lows for IPT usually span a month or two at best. This one arguably spans 10 which is a good thing. The wider the base the higher into space…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70199742196&a=1270890878&r=1680319499697&cmd=print
Best 1-month volume since last May…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&yr=9&mn=3&dy=0&id=t7209240021c&a=1300664075&r=1680320180498&cmd=print
Closed the month above the 12 month EMA for first time in almost 2 years…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&yr=15&mn=1&dy=0&id=t1461487603c&a=762574821&r=1680320603757&cmd=print
IPT is very strong all of a sudden.
Starting to look like Doc’s U-shape recovery
People keep saying Platinum is going to rocket higher this fall; ‘Corse they say that about Copper and Uranium too. (And Silver….been gonna go to da moon since when….1873?) I’ll tell ya what I like about Platinum though….a Platinum Eagle has twice the face value of a Gold Eagle….yet at the moment, it’s half the price. I still remember Platinum Spot higher than Gold Spot a decade ago…and gotta figure some suit once upon a time used good judgment in setting those face values…..