Ed Moya – More Banking Sector Volatility, A Pop In Cryptos And Gold, And A Drop In Oil and Nat Gas
Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst At OANDA, joins us to discuss the continued volatility in the banking sector, along with the safe-haven pop in Bitcoin and Gold, and then the further drop in oil and nat gas. We start off discussing the news that broke over the weekend of UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS), agreeing to takeover Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) , with additional liquidity provided by the Swiss National Bank. We also review the further hit to deposits and liquidity at some of the more smaller and regional banks, like First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC) whose shares fell 25.8% after ratings cut by S&P Global.
We also highlighted the market reactions to all this volatility, where the US Dollar is down but most market sectors are up, along with some flights to safety in gold, bitcoin, and crypto assets. We wrap up reviewing the continued pullback in the energy sector in both oil and natural gas. Ed provides some of the key technical price levels he’s watching in all these sectors, and what fundamental news to be watching from the Fed meeting later this week.
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The gold miners have been making major lows versus oil every 4 years, 2014, 2018, 2022 and GDX:WTIC is up 90% since last summer. This move is going to be huge and it’s good that there still seems to be so much doubt even among bulls.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3A%24WTIC&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0215448588c&a=1376613215&r=1679345810131&cmd=print
Some bulls are steers now and trying to regain their composure
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U.S. Stocks Are Rising Ahead Of The Fed’s Rate Decision
Liz Moyer – Investing.com – Mar 20, 2023
“U.S. stocks are rising on Monday after the weekend’s $3.2 billion tie-up of UBS and Credit Suisse as banking regulators raced to shore up confidence in the system.”
“Wall Street is wondering how much the turmoil in the banking sector is going to weigh on the economy, and how much the Federal Reserve will factor in the events of the past two weekends when it decides on interest rates this week.”
“Futures traders are largely expecting the Fed to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point, while just about 25% of traders are betting on a pause.”
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says the US is going through a ‘textbook’ financial crisis and the S&P 500 won’t hit a new high for a long time
Jennifer Sor – Business Insider – Mon, March 20, 2023
“It’s kind of like textbook,” Cooperman said. “We have a self-induced crisis by irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy [over] the last decade. I did not forecast the [SVB] issue, but I did have a view that we were heading into a crisis of some kind, and we’re seeing it.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-leon-cooperman-says-174658759.html
Stocks waver after UBS takeover deal/coordinated CB action/banking worries, Yen thrives on risk aversion flows, Bullish oil bets abandoned, Gold $2k, Bitcoin closer to $40k than November low
Ed Moya – Oanda – (03/20/2023)
https://tinyurl.com/5bsfzzad