I am happy to officially introduce to the KE Report a very well-known technician and market analyst, Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis.
This is wide-ranging discussion where we unpack the macroeconomic themes and technical momentum trends in general US equities, bonds, gold, silver, and commodities. We start off reviewing the longest and steepest move higher in general stock market indexes from 2009 to 2021, fueled by a constant injection of central bank liquidity, and how the dynamics have drastically changed since then with popping of that inflated bubble and general equities starting to unwind. Next, we look at the stark underperformance of bonds last year even over correcting equities, when under normal circumstances they would have garnered more of a safe haven bid. We then move in the relative strength that gold and silver showed in 2022, compared to almost all other asset classes, something he expects to continue moving forward.
Looking back at the 3 other bull markets in precious metals over the last 50 years, Michael outlines that in each of those there was a 7-fold to 8-fold nominal increase in gold prices from the major low to the major high. He goes on to point out that thus far gold has basically only doubled from it’s 2015 low of $1046, and there is plenty of room for upside appreciation as the bull market continues to unfold to match the prior 3 periods. He notes that in this recent bull market move, gold has tried 3 other times to break out above all time highs, and believes this 4th uptrend is taking hold and will move to new highs.
In addition to gold continuing to outperform general equities, Michael also expects them to outperform the rest of the commodity complex over the next few years. He is still bullish on the commodities sector relative to other general sectors, but still believes the largest torque and upside potential will be in both gold and silver.
.