Michael Oliver – Gold And Silver Are Where You Want To Be As The Largest General Equities Bull Market In History Continues To Unwind
I am happy to officially introduce to the KE Report a very well-known technician and market analyst, Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis.
This is wide-ranging discussion where we unpack the macroeconomic themes and technical momentum trends in general US equities, bonds, gold, silver, and commodities. We start off reviewing the longest and steepest move higher in general stock market indexes from 2009 to 2021, fueled by a constant injection of central bank liquidity, and how the dynamics have drastically changed since then with popping of that inflated bubble and general equities starting to unwind. Next, we look at the stark underperformance of bonds last year even over correcting equities, when under normal circumstances they would have garnered more of a safe haven bid. We then move in the relative strength that gold and silver showed in 2022, compared to almost all other asset classes, something he expects to continue moving forward.
Looking back at the 3 other bull markets in precious metals over the last 50 years, Michael outlines that in each of those there was a 7-fold to 8-fold nominal increase in gold prices from the major low to the major high. He goes on to point out that thus far gold has basically only doubled from it’s 2015 low of $1046, and there is plenty of room for upside appreciation as the bull market continues to unfold to match the prior 3 periods. He notes that in this recent bull market move, gold has tried 3 other times to break out above all time highs, and believes this 4th uptrend is taking hold and will move to new highs.
In addition to gold continuing to outperform general equities, Michael also expects them to outperform the rest of the commodity complex over the next few years. He is still bullish on the commodities sector relative to other general sectors, but still believes the largest torque and upside potential will be in both gold and silver.
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Based on the pricing that Stockcharts is displaying as the close, it was at $1973.50, so $1.70 below that high earlier in the year of $1975.20, but it was a higher close than that prior time and the highest of the year. It shows the high today was $1980.60, (and again Gold futures are continuing to truck higher in afterhours now at $1993.70).
Regardless, sticking with things as they are reported on this chart, it is was a very encouraging way to close the week, and now the yellow metal is back up above it’s 55 day EMA, 144 day EMA, and 233 day EMA, and $355 higher than it’s low last November at $1618.
> Gold Chart:
Stockcharts used the closing price of the April contract (^GCJ23)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%5EGCJ23&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10085360662
Thanks Matthew. As far as I could tell the April contract is what Investing.com, and Yahoo Finance were using as well.
I was watching the pricing for Gold and Silver every few minutes for the last hour of trading on Friday and was solidly above where stockcharts noted the close, and then kept going in afterhours trading even higher.
In afterhours Gold closed at $1993, but the regular close should have been north of $1980 (maybe in the $1988 area right at 3pm) Gold was definitely higher than $1973 at the regular market close on the April contract, so I’m not sure if Stockcharts has some kind of glitch on Friday or something. It closed at a new high for 2023 regardless, but it had exceeded the $1975 high from earlier this year, which was significant.
It was the same thing with Silver, where it was up in the $22.60-$22.70 range for the last hour, and yet Stockcharts showed it closing Friday’s session at $22.46. The price on the Yahoo Finance chart was at $22.71 at 3pm on Friday’s close.
It seems, based on looking at Kitco’s site that the $1973 level more closely aligns with the spot gold price at market close on Friday, but not the April future’s contract. Maybe that is where the disconnect is and they are accidentally displaying the spot price as the futures price on stockcharts.com.
I’ve noticed them not display closing prices correctly in the past as well, but it’s a shame it happened on such a key weekly close for the PMs.
Don’t forget that Comex open outcry ends at 1:30 ET, not 4:00 ET like stocks.
CNBC agrees with stockcharts:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@GC.1
That’s a good point Matthew. That must be why there is such a large spread because they are pulling that number off the Comex close at 1:30pm.
It does close earlier than normal markets, but I was thinking Stockcharts and most trading platforms still used the 4pm ET/3pm CT figures for the closing prices on the charts. That must be where the disconnect has been in the past then.
Well, at least if we see some of those gains given up in overseas trading then the futures contract has a bit higher to fall from than how things closed on the Comex, because gold and silver futures just kept trading up and up throughout the balance of normal trading hours, (and even higher in after hours).
It’s the same thing with Silver, where for more than the last hour of trading it was in the $22.60-$22.70 range and is up at $22.75 in afterhours trading, but for some reason, it is displaying as a close of $22.46 on Stockcharts. (maybe they are using a different futures contract or something?… because that was eclipsed mid-day and Silver futures just kept plowing higher).
Regardless, going with the number they post of $22.46, it is still nice to see Silver out of the danger zone down near $20, and above that $21.41-$21.50 level, and solidly above $22.
It has also now blasted up above the 55 day EMA, 144 day EMA, and 233 day EMA in bullish fashion.
>> Silver Chart:
Great interview. Make Michael Oliver a regular.
Much appreciated LakeDweller2 , and that is precisely what we hope to do with Michael.
We really enjoyed having him as a guest on the KE Report podcast show, and hope others do enjoy this type of content.
Happy green-on-the-screen St Patty’s Day!!!
Agreed Buzz. Nice to see some green on the screen for St Patrick’s Day.
Cheers!
>> Irish Bagpipe Marches
Gold Weekly Flexes Its Muscles: https://postimg.cc/FYS2JmWX
💪
I always enjoy Michael Oliver. Now why not invite Jim Sinclair next week? Too bad James Dines won’t be here to see gold go to 8K or higher. Of course none of will be here if Jackboot Joe starts WWIII as he seems to be trying his best to do.
Thanks Bonzo Barzini. It was great having Michael on the show, and is nice seeing you posting again.
The gold miners look great versus gold. GDM:Gold took back its 200 day MA yesterday after closing below it for almost a month…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07478236946&a=1376295908
Gold hit an 11 month high today while becoming overbought and closing $25 above its daily Bollinger Bands. There have been 3 similar closes above the BBs in the last 3.5 years and 2 marked highs while the other one was followed by some sideways choppy action so the odds are good that gold will at least stall here for a couple days. It could fall over $40 from here without threatening its breakout and I bet the miners and even silver will rise if it does so.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00340369900&a=1376319394
Silver’s high on Friday happened at 2 fork resistances but the closing price was still above the 50 day MA for the first time in over 6 weeks. It looks like it has the power to easily move right through any nearby resistance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p42387183419&a=1376401708
Good stuff. Let’s hope he’s right!
+1
Stockcharts shows gold having closed the week at $1973… even though most pricing platforms had it up around $1980 for the last hour of trading and then into afterhours trading (where it is currently at $1993.70)
Either way, this was one solid weekly close for the yellow metal, making a new high for prices this year in 2023.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures