Dave Erfle – Gold and Silver Stocks Rebound On Strong Volume, Is This Leading To A Breakout?
Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky joins us to discuss the pop in gold and silver and the underlying stocks over the past 3 trading days on the back of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a couple other banks.
Dave points out the large volume yesterday (Monday) in GDX , GDXJ and SIL. It’s al about follow through now as Dave is focused on gold getting over $2,000/oz for a monthly close. He thinks this could be the major driver for another bull market run.
Is it the “Perfect Storm” for goldbugs?
Big money powers go for the most profitable, or survivable.
The non-linear BRICS shadow is shortening.
They will very likely be there.
KBE holding above target: https://postimg.cc/tnpGzbZx
As is KRE: https://postimg.cc/z3Ly2bDj
The Fed… ‘Higher for longer’ becomes ‘raise till it breaks’. Most of us here could read between the lines of their drivel, now we get the satisfaction of seeing the Ivy Leaguers with that ‘deer in the headlights’ expressions. Another reason to get rid of these criminals and their nefarious guessing game that they seem to lose every time in the long run.
No contagion here, look away, look away…
TSX.v we have a gap to fill 25 points lower, this will cap the micro gold/silvers for a short time, IMHO. There is no trust in this index yet, it has been fickle and will only shake that off with a good PM run. The run could start anytime.
My reasoning that the TSX.v will drop more is the micro gold and silver stocks mostly need new financings and the competition will be fierce between who has a deposit and who is a liar sitting over a hole in the ground.
The TSX.V acts nothing like a gold/silver mining index because it’s not. Take a look at the top 10 constituents on page 3 here:
file:///C:/Users/Trader/Downloads/fs-sp-tsx-venture-composite-index.pdf
I can’t read that but I know there are many other stocks than PMs. I don’t think the PM stocks in this index are going anywhere until that gap is filled but if and when the PM stocks do go they can lift this whole index up as they did in your CDNX/SPX/XAU chart.
Based on its composition I’d bet that it could fill that gap even the PM stocks don’t fill their own gaps. And if it doesn’t fill it then we will know that it is a legit breakaway gap. It sure fits the criteria:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p35046387746&a=1374252501
Sorry, I wasn’t thinking when I linked that pdf. You can pull it up here by clicking on “Factsheet” under Documents:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-tsx-venture-composite-index/#overview
Good info, the materials sector looks like it is heavier in lithium over the PMs than I thought. We talk about the Gold Industry like Americans talk about their Tech sector, if the PMs fly, the TSX.v will fly.
Here’s a zoomed-in look at the start of the last bull market 202 years ago. You can see that the HUI gold bugs index launched a strong new uptrend about 2 years before the TSXV finally left its long base behind:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&st=1999-02-07&en=2004-03-29&id=p39423639266&a=1374310863
At the beginning of the last bull market the TSX.V didn’t act as well as the HUI or XAU until after the S&P bottomed and that’s because there are so many “conventional” stocks among its constituents.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t5622955294c&r=1678903557474&cmd=print
Harnessing Fusion in a power station during a rock concert.
This Is Only the Start: Bank Runs are the First Sign the Fed ‘Broke Something’
By Lance Roberts – Investing.com – Mar 14, 2023
“With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks. ‘Bank runs’ are problematic in today’s financial system due to fractional reserve banking. Under this system, only a fraction of a bank’s deposits must be available for withdrawal. In this system, a bank only keeps a specific amount of cash on hand and creates loans from deposits it receives.”
“Banks have a continual inflow of deposits which it then creates loans against. The bank monitors its assets, deposits, and liabilities closely to maintain solvency and meet Federal capital and reserve requirements. Banks have minimal risk of insolvency in a normal environment as there are always enough deposit flows to cover withdrawal requests.”
> A $17 Trillion Problem
“While higher rates increase consumer borrowing costs, they also negatively impact bank capital. As noted above, banks are fine until customers begin to withdraw funds.”
> What the Federal Reserve didn’t account for in hiking rates were two critical things.
– The negative impact on bank collateral (as interest rates rise, collateral values fall)
– At what point would customers liquidate demand deposits for higher-yielding assets?
“These two points have a crucial relationship…”
https://www.investing.com/analysis/this-is-only-the-start-bank-runs-are-the-first-sign-the-fed-broke-something-200636211