Steve Penny – Portfolio Trading Strategies And Technical Outlook For The US Dollar, Gold, Silver, and Uranium Stocks
Steve Penny, Publisher of The SilverChartist Report, joins us to share a handful of key charts on the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, and weekly and daily charts for (URNM) the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF. [all charts are posted below so you can follow along]
We intermix some macro fundamentals and trading strategies into the discussion, and Steve also breaks down how he has weighted the breakdown of different-staged mining stocks inside of his portfolio. In addition, we also review how he plans on adjusting his holdings in physical metals over different parts of the cycle and the importance of position sizing.
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Click here to visit the SilverChartist website
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Great interview and timely. Keep Steve coming. Very professional.
Thanks Lakedweller2. Steve is a very sharp guy and does an excellent job with his site and forum over there, and I frequent it often just to check on his thoughts, and David Brady’s and Jeff Clark’s analysis.
Yeah, that “If/Then” line about if Silver was to break $21.41 to the downside, and the sector was to plummet and go down the drain requiring a career change, was more for comic relief. Haha!
(even if Silver does break down further below there in the short-term, we are both still pretty bullish on it medium to longer-term)
Kinda like when Steve threw in the line if “Silver was to go to $9” and destroy the sector that he’d still be able to feed his family and “wouldn’t be in the poorhouse” due to the position sizing in his overall asset mix. He does quite well, and likely won’t be anywhere close to the poorhouse, but he was making a larger point for investors to consider about how much they want allocated to each bucket, and how much risk that they have relative to their overall net worth.
We were just having a bit a fun today and have good chemistry as friends, and were cutting up a bit before we started recording and just kept a little banter in the interview. Yes, looking forward to getting him back on the show again in a few weeks for another update.
Dollar Index : Winter 2023 : On Thin Ice!
https://tinyurl.com/2v25vube
The Cutting Edge
BDC – Thanks for posting that US Dollar chart. I could see it blasting a bit higher up to that 38.2% fib retracement up to 106.15 that you highlighted.
However, I’m not really in the camp that the USD is still in a larger uptrend and is heading up to 120 and higher, after seeing such an epic fall from grace from the 114.78 level down to 100.82. It would seem we are getting a dead-cat bounce in the greenback, before it eventually rolls over and starts the next leg lower. The dollar may stay stronger in the near-term, with rates moving higher again as the Fed hikes 1-2 more times, but then I’d expect both to moderate back down lower again mid-year and moving forward.
Someone may throw BRICS at the Dollar!
🙂 Good one BDC!
Today’s low for GDX was one cent below the 377 week EMA…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p53742993470&a=1355097260
+377 That fib level 377 weekly EMA actually appears to have been solid support for GDX a few times.
Thanks for posting that chart Matthew.
Charlie Munger: ‘I’m not proud of my country’ for allowing ‘crypto sh-t’
Alexandra Semenova · Yahoo Finance – Wed, February 15, 2023
Legendary investor Charlie Munger pulled no punches when it came to offering his latest anti-cryptocurrency views on Wednesday. “It isn’t even slightly stupid, it’s massively stupid, and of course it’s very dangerous, and of course the governments were totally wrong to permit it,” Munger told CNBC’s Becky Quick during a livestream of the event.
“And of course, I am not proud of my country for allowing this crap — well, I call it crypto shit. It’s worthless, it’s crazy, it’s not good, it’ll do nothing but harm, it’s antisocial to allow it.”
Munger, who has drawn criticism for praising the Chinese government in the past, said the nation’s leaders were right not to allow cryptocurrencies. The People’s Bank of China banned all cryptocurrency transactions in September 2021.
FTX Customers Sue Financiers For Giving Bankrupt Crypto Exchange An ‘Air Of Legitimacy’
By Jonathan Stempel – February 15, 2023
“Former customers of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX have sued three venture capital and private equity firms, accusing them in a proposed class action of fraudulently promoting the cryptocurrency exchange before it went bankrupt.”
“According to a complaint filed late Tuesday in San Francisco federal court, Sequoia Capital, Thoma Bravo and Paradigm were ‘incentivized’ in 2021 and 2022 to tout FTX by the more than $550 million they invested prior to its sudden collapse.”
“The customers said the defendants lent FTX an “air of legitimacy” by vouching that they had examined its operations–with a Sequoia executive once saying “we did our homework”–and found them “safe and secure” for cryptocurrency investors.”
SEC Proposes Rule That Could Squeeze Crypto Platforms
By Paul KiernanFollow and Justin Baer – Wall Street Journal – Feb. 15, 2023
“Wall Street’s regulator proposed a rule that could make it more difficult for many asset managers to invest customers’ money in cryptocurrencies, as policy makers push to rein in the sector following trading platform FTX’s collapse.”
“The Securities and Exchange Commission voted 4-1 Wednesday on a proposal that would expand the types of assets that investment advisers, such as hedge funds and pension funds, are required to hold using qualified custodians.”
Coinbase ‘Will Defend Staking in Court if Needed’: CEO
Alys Key – Decrypt – Mon, February 13, 2023
“U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase has launched a defense of its staking services, after the future of the practice was thrown into doubt by the Securities and Exchange Commission’s enforcement action against Kraken last week.”
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted on Sunday that the company’s staking services are not securities. “We will happily defend this in court if needed,” Armstrong said.
“It comes after the SEC hit rival exchange Kraken with a $30 million fine for offering its staking-as-a-service without registering it. Just before the announcement, Armstrong warned that he had heard rumors of a wider crackdown on staking in the pipeline.”
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/coinbase-defend-staking-court-needed-104611103.html
Dogecoin soars after Elon Musk tweet, and Coinbase responds to SEC crackdown
CNBC Crypto World – “On today’s show, Paul Grewal, the chief legal officer at Coinbase, responds to a proposed rule change from the SEC that would make it harder for firms to hold customer assets.”
Just the fact that CNBC has a show called “Crypto World” is evidence of how entrenched the sector is, but the sector really has become a carnival freakshow.
When CNBC gets a show called “Precious Metals World” then it will be more concerning, but something tells me that is not going to happen anytime soon. 😉
Also… Cathy Wood is back to her typical playbook. It is starting to feel like 2020 and 2021 all over again…
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Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bags nearly $16M Coinbase stocks in February
ARK Invest has spent nearly $30 million on the Coinbase stock so far in 2023 while dumping Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares.
Helen Partz – Coin Telegraph – Feb 14, 2023
https://cointelegraph.com/news/cathie-wood-s-ark-invest-bags-nearly-16m-coinbase-stocks-in-february
Despite all the dramatic news in the cryptoverse…. the cryptos have really been rallying lately.
Bitcoin has surged from $15,500 up to $24,600 in the last few months, and was up 11% just today.
Ethereum was up another 8.8% today.
There were a lot of altcoins up 6%-20% today. Same thing with a number of the crypto mining stocks.
Whether Charlie Munger is correct, or Cathy Wood is correct remains to be seen, but if nothing else, it’s at least interesting to see the crypto circus show band continue to play on…
Charlie………….. was spot on……………. 🙂
But, isn’t Charlie part of the problem…. lol
Burkshire A….$ 467,294.97 ….. I knew I should have bought it at $32,000….. lol
+$32,000
Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) shoots down Newmont takeover bid
Josh Smith – The Market Herald -16 February 2023
“Newcrest Mining (NCM) shoots down a $24 billion takeover offer from Newmont Corporation, claiming the deal does not represent “sufficiently compelling value” for NCM shareholders. Under the all-scrip deal, New York-listed Newmont would pay 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share to take full control of the ASX’s biggest gold miner.”
“While Newcrest has rejected the offer, it has presented Newmont with access to some of its books to give Newmont a chance to improve on its bid.”
https://themarketherald.com.au/newcrest-mining-asxncm-shoots-down-newmont-takeover-bid-2023-02-16/
Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_ 4:11 PM · Feb 15, 2023 – Twitter:
“The second largest gold producer, Barrick Gold, had its output fall to a 22-year low.”
“This is happening as we are seeing a decline in significant gold discoveries in recent years, and gold demand was at an 11-year high in 2022.”
“Gold M&A is coming back with a bang in 2023.”
https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1626011343982829569
The 6-Month T-Bill Breaches 5%. It Hasn’t Been This High Since 2007.
Andrew Welsch – Barron’s – Tue, February 14, 2023
“That’s good news for investors looking to earn even more on their short-term cash. It’s still not enough to offset inflation, however, which remains stubbornly high even as the latest government data show it slowing.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-bill-six-month-interest-rate-5782c7a1
Same intervention and rigging. Doing something else again.
Tesla rounded top. Will it continue to go higher?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=M&yr=8&mn=0&dy=10&id=p99942695630&a=1355575755&r=1676567744831&cmd=print
I think the bulls who don’t sell or hedge very soon are nuts. TSLA is still expensive to put it mildly and that is going to be a problem in the current economic, debt/monetary environment.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p87163517922&a=1346434377
I bought HL today at 4.98, 5.06 and 5.03 (in that order) because the sector has a good shot at a low here that could be well confirmed as soon as tomorrow. Also bought GDXJ not far from today’s low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34576297591&a=1355531023
Nice. I will wait a little to add to my HL position but today I bought SSRM
Futures market already says tomorrow is another day of algo purgatory. Move along… nothing to see here.
“Career Change” … hummm… ha ha… what….not!