Weekend Show – A Big Week For Central Banks, US Economic Data, Markets and Metals
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show!
It was expected that this week would be a volatile one. With tech earnings, the Fed and a couple other major central bank meetings, US jobs data and the ISM data there is a lot to cover.
We start out with the macro picture then move into trading strategies for markets, metals and energy.
- Segment 1 – Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show kicks off the show by recapping the major market drivers this week; Fed meeting, US jobs data and big tech earnings.
- Segment 2 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share website dives into the markets to share his trading strategies for tech stocks, value stocks, gold miners and what sectors he thinks are the strongest.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Dan Steffens, President of The Energy Prospectus Group wraps up the show with a focus on the oil and gas sector. We start with long term demand projections for a range of energy sources then move to the natural gas sector, where prices have crashed. We discuss how much the lower natural gas price is impacting the stocks.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Enduro Metals – High Grade Drill Results From Burgundy Ridge Extending Mineralization With Many Holes Still To Come
- Metallic Minerals – Gold Royalty Agreement At Australia Creek Property In the Klondike With Parker Schnabels Little Flake Mining Of Discovery Channels TV Series Gold Rush
- Ridgeline Minerals – High-grade CRD Mineralization Drill Results From the Chinchilla Zone, And Assays Pending From The Juniper and Broken Egg Targets
- Tier One Silver – 2 New Porphyry Targets On The Curibaya Project With A Drill Program Starting In Q2
- Scottie Resources – Recapping A Number Of High Grade Intercepts From The Blueberry Contact Zone In The Golden Triangle
- Palamina Corp – High-Grade Sample Results From Usicayos and The Pathway To Drilling This Year
Things have now come to such a point that if they keep raising rates, they will run the risk of bringing about a smash in the market. They don’t want it to appear that they are the cause if this happens. Business, the public, and the government will be forced to pay a higher rate for funds.
Steve Penny on Monday sent out alert looking for gold to pullback, he bought GLD puts, big winner.
That a true technical guy reading charts.
Paul, I shorted gold/silver big time recently and took my shorts off yesterday. Also, sold many of my mining stocks except for juniors that I’ll add to on further weakness.
Doc, nice to hear from you. Do you see a shallow correction here with PM?
Doc always like your view and wish you come on more often.
Tired of listening to the puppet’s that call themselves technicians, they just go with flow and sentiment at time can’t really read the charts
Yes “real” technicians like Doc tell us about their intelligent (supposed) actions after the fact and only after a win. Lol, how very useful and of course credible.
At the very least you’d think he’d share that gold was a sell before it fell like Penny and I did.
What are you talking about? He’s said for months this would happen. I’m looking forward to his monthly update. I appreciate your input as well Matthew.
Liars poker. A common practice, usually follows technical savvy buying.
Then you talk about the one that worked. Repeatedly.
jon syl
Feb 03, 2023 03:58 PM
Good move on HL sell the 27th, not so Feb 1st. buy.
Nevertheless the drop you hoped for has arrived.
Matthew
Feb 01, 2023 01:49 AM
I dig the action. It wasn’t quite the drop I was hoping for but I still bought HL and SILJ this morning among others.
Find it fascinating that you like to crap on everyone else who actually makes calls(many correct ones I might add) while you sit in cash and lose 10% annually as inflation erodes your purchasing power. You said market is boring and going nowhere and that you were staying out and loving it. Good for you. You need to go along with whatever strategy works for you. Your strategy requires the entire market to be moving up so it becomes a dart throwers market where everything goes up. Right now stock picking is key. My TFSA has never been higher. Mostly due to buying Magna in November while you sat on your hands. Feel free to be bold enough to tell us when you’ve gotten back in and what you’ve bought and not with hindsight. Cheers.
What are you smoking? I’ve been buying multiple juniors day after day lately and was a buyer of HL and SILJ on the 1st and am still a buyer AND I still dig the action. Only sheeple, liars and maybe some daytraders stress about nailing the low and taking a full position in one trade. If precise timing was always my top concern I would enter every trade they way Rick Ackerman taught me to. It works extremely well and leaves nothing to bias.
Again, you’d be sitting pretty right now had YOU been a buyer at all the significant lows during the summer and fall instead of crying in anger and fear.
MonaL, since the last correction of this size 3 months ago GDX is still up 36% and was up as much as 50% recently and Doc’s remained bearish. The last time he appeared he said the worst should be behind us by this summer. It is my strong belief that the low is 4 months behind us and that this pullback is a great buying opportunity and will be short in duration. In fact the low is probably happening as I type this and if not it will probably be in place by tomorrow morning.
This has been a simple/needed/necessary/healthy move back to the 50 day MA and EMA – the first in 3 months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20045784316
Yep Steve Penny is a sharp technician, and he took a lot of heat over on his own forum for suggesting a corrective move was overdue and for taking out those GLD puts. Markets go up and down, and there is nothing wrong with playing things for profit from either direction.
As we mentioned on here earlier in the week, Gold was really overbought on both the daily and weekly chart for a while, and Silver and the mining stocks had been stalled out and out of steam the last few weeks, so a corrective move after 3-4 months of rallying was expected.
In addition, the Dollar was way oversold and due for a rally, so that is often a headwind to the PMs. Also, some computer algos trade gold futures based on moves in the dollar and 10 year treasuries yields direction. We saw both get a lift post Fed meeting and post Friday’s better-than-expected jobs report and ISM numbers.
I had mentioned fortifying my JDST hedge last week and earlier this week and it grew from a 3% to a 4% and as of Friday a 5% position in my portfolio. As mentioned towards the end of this week, if it grows from here to a 7%-10% position, then I’ll pull profits on the short hedge in JDST, and then use those funds for repositioning into mining stocks that may correct further in the interim.
30-mins GDX showing oversold. I’m expecting a decent bounce on Monday
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=t4213473129c&a=1346340857&r=1675530105633&cmd=print
HL Monthly buy signal almost after 18 months of consolidation. Notice monthly coppock is still below zero line and still very young in it’s phase.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=M&yr=20&mn=1&dy=10&id=p83605052550&a=1346345077&r=1675530581040&cmd=print
Tesla looks like it’s going to hug 200 WMA. Probably a good short then
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p16096789699&a=1346350586&r=1675531440099&cmd=print
Things are about to get interesting for TSLA…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p96807793322&a=1346434377
Fo sure! I’m betting it will break $200 ceiling, giving “all clear” signal to gullible retail traders. Tesla is an ultimate posterchild stock of greed and FOMO.
Good chart of TSLA Matthew. I took a trading position near the bottom. I already took partial profits. I will probably sell the rest Monday.
Silver tested and closed above 20 week EMA support but will probably poke lower next week before reversing.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47944495354&a=1236060031
Silver challenged important fork resistance during 9 of the last 11 quarters as it builds what appears to be a giant bull flag…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=Q&yr=50&mn=11&dy=0&id=t8034508943c&a=714975649&r=1675544106372&cmd=print
The same rising fork resistance that has capped silver for the last 2 months also capped it (perfectly) on Thursday…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p79311553672&a=638471406
This is the best the dollar has looked since it topped last September but it’s not in the clear yet even short term.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p61006787221&a=1203033284
Appears to be a short term trading opportunity?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=5&mn=7&dy=10&id=p02991140074&a=1346478196&r=1675547035024&cmd=print
Good show this weekend.
I’m out of all individual miner names, and have only a couple energy names.
I’m holding North Am Natural Resources ETF – NANR. I see that Lyn Alden holds GUNR in her portfolio. Either one looks like a good hold for this decade of commodities.
Chart: NANR / GUNR ratio.
https://schrts.co/YkWQwrag
Thanks for that post IrwinW. I’m not familiar with NANR or GUNR, and appreciate you highlighting them on that ratio chart. Lyn Alden is a very sharp macro analyst, and that is interesting to learn she holds GUNR in her portfolio.
Hey Ex; I’ll leave the link to Lyn’s Dec newsletter. The portfolio is shown about 3/4 way down the page. GUNR is 8% of her commodity holdings.
She usually sends out a new letter about the 20th of the month, but she may have taken January off. Her pinned tweet (@LynAldenContact) from Dec 18 says, “My December 2022 public newsletter is out.” which is why I think she skipped January.
https://www.lynalden.com/december-2022-newsletter/
+1 – Thanks for sharing that Lyn link IrwinW.
Great week of guests and input as always.
I took the opportunity on Friday to buy more Magna as I expect this week for the news to start flowing again with results. Have bought enough of it now that I have my long term shares and some short term as well that I can look to trade on every rally up.
I could see PMs bouncing on Monday but worry that Powell will reverse his dovish tone from Wednesday and get more hawkish again when he speaks on Tuesday. All from what I consider illusionary numbers on Friday but the real truth with the economy can’t be hidden for much longer.
Still favour buying more Magna and Emerita as I have enough PM plays……and am looking towards copper in the coming months.
Short ramble. Time is the biggest limitation these days and know Ex will always go for a longer ramble. 😎
Thanks for those comments Wolfster and yes I think peppering in a few diversifiers outside the PM’s is a good strategy. COPX has done well the last few months for the Copper stocks.
You can be the long rambler this weekend though, as I’m worn out from a busy week and skiing most of yesterday. I already did my long rants on Friday and yesterday on the Craig Henke blog regarding the Uranium stocks. 😉🤑🤪
Hi Wolfster, I am not convinced that Powell was dovish on Wednesday, he said, and I quote, “The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done, but its not done, Powell said; Core services, inflation, ex-housing has not come down. That doesn’t sound like a lamb or a dove to me.
You need to get some ground penetrating radar, there are rumblings that you have conveniently let your mind skip over. LOL! DT🤣
It’s all relative DT…….compare last Wednesday to previous ones since the rates have started moving up. That was the most dovish he’s been ….. or if it works better for you that was the least hawkish he’s been since rates have been going up.
Patrick Karim Gold’s epic breakout line
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/degWKJaC-Gold/
Newmont Mining announces $16.9 billion bid for Newcrest, this should get the snowball rolling down the hill. Yeah Baby! Give us M&A! DT
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-02-05/Newcrest-pops-on-news-of-Newmont-s-16-9-million-bid.html
Wow! That is a big deal with Newmont seeking to acquire Newcrest. They are 2 of the majors, and in the news it even described NEM as a “super-major” company. We also just saw the acquisition of Yamana recently by the combined efforts by both Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle for different assets. These are more transactions of the big boys consolidating the remaining big boys into even larger combined companies.
It makes me wonder if the new combined entity will follow through on the all the JV deals with tinier juniors. For example, think about the option earn-in deal that Newcrest just announced with Headwater Gold… would that still be a priority for Newmont? Think about all the JV deals Newmont is in with Juniors… would they still be a priority after digesting all the projects from Newcrest? Usually, after 2 companies combine, the larger entity will also divest a few projects to the mid-tiers or smaller producers…. will we see any of that as well?
We will likely see even more mid-tiers also try and do mergers of equals or strategic acquisitions to mass up in size into larger combined entities.
Newcrest Investors Say $24.4 Billion Bid Is Not Enough
Peter Ker – Feb 6, 2023
“The world’s largest gold miner has lobbed a blockbuster $24.4 billion bid for ASX-listed Newcrest Mining, but faces a pushback from investors who are hoping to set up an auction for the local giant.”
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newcrest-investors-say-24-4b-bid-is-not-enough-20230206-p5ci9j
Stock Market Is Basically Going Nowhere For The Rest Of The Year: Goldman Sachs
Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Yahoo Finance Editor-at-Large – Mon, February 6, 2023
“Investors have seen the best the stock market has to offer in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs.”
“A soft landing — and in fact above-trend growth — is already priced in U.S. equities. Valuations are elevated vs. history and will be constrained by an eventual rise in interest rates. Even avoiding recession, earnings are unlikely to grow substantially in 2023,” Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a new note on Monday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-goldman-sachs-going-nowhere-2023-outlook-111317727.html
Dolly Varden Silver intersects 15.94 meters Averaging 1,499 g/t Silver including 0.35 meters of 23,997 g/t Silver at the Wolf Deposit.
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/DV/news/7671657598478682/Dolly_Varden_Silver_Intersects_1594_meters_Averaging_1499_gt_Silver_Including_035_meters_of_23997_gt_Silver_at_the_Wolf_Deposit
Another nice silver drill hit from the Dolly Varden team continuing to expand Wolf deposit. Shawn has mentioned that Wolf may end up being another Torbrit-sized deposit if it keeps growing like this.
> Looks like it may be the year of the Wolf after all. Haha!
🤣🤣🤣. You know it.
The Great Migration From ‘Flawless’ To ‘Hopeless’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (02/04/2023)
The basis for GLD is November 3rd.
TURNS: https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7
NatGas Still Bottoming?
Miners Retrace.
Good news out today in a lot of places. Opened green and it took 1 minute to take it red.
Rotating a few profits and able to add some Magna to take those profits later.
One has to wonder about the job figures that were released by The BLS yesterday. We live in a tailored manipulated world where we are led to believe in free markets, so the public believes that the system is self-regulating. It is so easy to tweak statistics.
The Federal Reserve Board finally met the dilemma of having to carry on with quantitative tightening with this new ingenious scheme from the BLS. DT