Jesse Felder – A Strong January For Markets, Does This Relate To 2008 or 2001?
Jesse Felder, Founder and Editor of The Felder Report joins us to recap the continued uptrend in a wide range of markets. Investor optimism is back but that doesn’t mean it’s smooth sailing for the markets. Jesse makes a couple key comparisons to early 2008 and 2001. We discuss economic data, if there are any sectors that could have a contagion effect on the broad markets and where Jesse sees the most opportunity.
Click here to visit The Felder Report website.
MAN !!! … They just took , G&S— & Plat& Pall , to the wood shed.
We have been watching the shining screen with the price numbers running uninterrupted for years, we know how things are faring. You can’t teach an old dog what they think are new tricks.
Yes, the Jobs number came in much stronger than many expected as another factor today, but down went the metals. As mentioned recently, we were very overbought in gold and many of the mining stocks, so a corrective move was overdue to consolidate the big moves higher the last few months in the PM sector.
Jobs report shows increase of 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low
Jeff Cox – Feb 3 2023
– The January jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000, far higher than the 187,000 market estimate.
– The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969.
– Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs to lead all sectors. Other significant gainers were professional and business services (82,000), government (74,000) and health care (58,000).
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html
Unemployment Rate Hits New Low of 3.4 Percent as Jobs and Employment Jump But…
Mish Talk – 28 MINUTES AGO
“Jobs and employment rose more than expected in January. But because of massive revisions, the BLS cautions all of its household data is full of errors.”
– The divergence between jobs and employment continues for the tenth month but lessened in December of 2022 and January of 2023.
– The full time employment divergence is still huge.
– The divergences between jobs and employment date back to May.
– The BLS announced huge annual revisions in jobs and employment.
– Finally, even discounting the revisions, there is still a huge divergence between jobs and full time employment. We do not know how it evolved because the BLS doesn’t say.
The US Dollar has also rallied today in sympathy up to 102.50.
I’m not sure if this corrective move will have legs, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it run into the next week or 2.
My JDST hedge position which I’ve been fortifying is paying off recently, and it has climbed from a 3.5% portfolio weighting to about a 5% portfolio weighting in the last 2 weeks. So nothing too big, but if it grows to become a 7%-10% position, then I’ll likely sell it, harvest the gains, and then plow them right back into the mining stocks that have corrected at more attractive pricing.
Lowest employment in the history of the World at anyplace and anytime and we still have these ungrateful people homeless in the streets. How can they be so rude.
… and silver has to be the drama queen, haha!;-)
Always… Haha!
Fer fun… ignore if you want.
https://tenor.com/view/lucy-weird-cry-dramatic-wah-gif-24828561
😆
Hi EX … You mean the BS job numbers …………… LOL
Haha! Yes, IrishT. The BS jobs numbers.
That piece from Mish Shedlock up above points out a number of the divergences and revisions the Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps putting out as they massage their “official” numbers retroactively.
Hey, they got the desired effect they wanted, and very few even pay attention to the revisions downwards after the fact, as most market participants just react to the initial reports and that is all they hear. It’s like when news stories get retracted after the fact, most ignore the truth, and just react to the initial rumor.
What was behind today’s ” WOW, WOW, WOW ” Jobs Report. … Make of this , what you will.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-was-behind-todays-wow-wow-wow-jobs-report
Thanks IrishT.
“First, as we warned yesterday, today the BLS unveiled a slew of data revisions, which include updating the population controls – which would have the mechanical effect of boosting the labor force – and updating seasonal factors, which further distorted the January nonfarm payroll number (this is key as readers will read shortly). This is indeed what happened:”
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-was-behind-todays-wow-wow-wow-jobs-report
There is a major war going on and the armaments industry in America is by far The World’s Largest. They must be hiring a lot of people, yet I don’t see any mention of those statistics in The BLS figures.
Due to becoming bored and paranoid, I decided to take my worst performing silver stock (Defiance) and sell it and put all of it into my best performer (SilverTiger). That is the most excitement I can stir up after 3 weeks of red.
Nice rotation trade there Lakedweller2. I hold positions in both Defiance and Silver Tiger as well, but have a much larger position in Silver Tiger, due to the string of consistent high-grade drill results and more confidence in their team to make something happen with their assets over the next few years (many of the same folks behind GoGold).
Both companies are interesting though and we aim to get both of them back on the KE Report in the not-so-distant future. Cheers!
I hope there is progress on the land claim against them whether they win or lose, just to get it out of the way.
They did put out this update in January, which seems to indicate they are moving forward with Tepal, at least with the royalty. I still think they have a court date regarding the land concessions that were awarded to some other private individual, but that would be nice to get some clarity on for sure.
Most weren’t in Defiance for this project though anyway, as more are animated by their Zacatecas area project, but still, it has been a bit of cloud hanging over their heads.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Defiance Successfully Restructures Option to Acquire Royalty at the Tepal Project
16 Jan 2023
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/defiance-successfully-restructures-option-to-acquire
BIX Weir…………today
The silver riggers pulled out all the stops with a 600 Million Ounce Silver Derivative Dump yesterday to stop a small $2 rise in price.
Ha!
Totally manufactured and planned long ahead of the Fed meeting!
The funny thing is, it took them 600Moz of derivatives to stop silver from rising only $2
Are they worried about a MOONSHOT when silver breaks through $30?!!
HANG ON TIGHT!
The PM charts look broken to me now. Let silver pop back over the 100 WMA and I will be more optimistic. It’s not happening any time soon IMO. I think 2nd half of the year will be a much better time to buy.
This type of damage creates overhead resistance that will be very very tough to crack.
At best, I think silver’s declining 100 WMA will act as tough resistance through the end of the year. It will be good for traders as price could rise and fall between $19 on the low end to $23 on the high end.
Just wait for the 100 and 200 WMA negative cross (or at least until those MA’s get very close to each other) before jumping in for a long term buy.
Mission accomplished by the short sellers. And again, its not too much of a shock to me given that declining 100 WMA.
Did they mention JPM by name or is it just my strong internal bias based on their felony conviction for manipulating the Precious Metals markets. What do I know.
Lake,….. sorry I do not know the answer……
I just got the notice ….. from Bix on an email….
CFTC and SEC………. worthless…………
Just part of the FAKE GOVT…….
Maybe USD will rally enough over the next 6 months to form a double top in the June-July timeframe, which could coincide with a major low in silver (although I am NOT expecting silver to take out last August’s low–famous last words).
The US Dollar is rallying the last few days, from 100.8 now up to 102.70, but I’d be very surprised to see it form a double-top by rallying all the way back up to 114.74 again like it did last year. It may get back up to that 109-110 level, but it seems like the larger trend has broken the bullish uptrend, and it is still in an overall downtrend now.
you want to see what a real bull market looks like, take a look at $tnx.
Yields hit a new 15 year high a few months ago and gold saw it coming way in advance with a new all-time high 2 before. Both will rise for many years to come.
Maybe, maybe not.
Major inflections in TNX correspond almost exactly with tops and bottoms in the mining stocks.
I’m not saying the bull is over. Just need to be more patient as this is going to probably be a slog for another year. I am optimistic that the recent lows will hold but that doesn’t preclude rangebound trade for the next year. If you believe an extension of this run is imminent after the last two days action, well, I wish I could be so optimistic.
Silver was set up for another leg higher, but instead we just put in a major top that probably won’t get broken until second half of ’23 at the earliest and maybe as late as early ’24. Gold is down $110 in 2 days–that’s not bullish action. After consolidating beautifully for 2 months above its 20, 30 and 50 dmas, silver smashed below all three in 2 days. Anything else on earth, I would say there is a chance of a sharp rebound but not the metals.
CDNX, looks like a corrective pullback for a bit, IMO. The last blip was definitely not from the pm stocks.
I will hand this to TPTB–they fooled us yet again. silver rallied so beautifully and subsequently consolidated very bullishly–it was meaningless. Back down she goes. I imagine the next 6-10 months are going to be treacherous.
Time is running out, but I figure they just bought themselves quite a bit of time with this smash.
One week ago, Friday the 27th, I said:
I sold all of my trading position in HL when it went into the 6.40s the other day based on the risk-reward and got lucky with my timing. I really expected it to go a bit higher without me. Now I am hoping that the whole sector will get hit hard next week because we (bulls), even non traders, will all be better off if it does. A scary cleanout now would set the stage for a surprisingly strong reversal and finally some mainstream recognition of what’s happening. It would also probably coincide with a widely unexpected faltering of stock market which IS in a bear market.
I strongly disagree with the necessity for “large pullbacks” at this, presumably the final stage in a 20+ year bull. yes, maybe after running up 6x in 5 months like TSLA did in 2020, a massive pullback in a raging bull is warranted. But at some point in a bull, sentiment become meaningless precisely because the “pullbacks” are so controlled and mild that they end up as just sideways price action and correct through time. you can’t build any momentum if the price action destroys anyone who doesn’t dare to time their buy to perfection and nab the absolute low.
Look at all the suckers who have held AG and EXK (I include myself in that camp). If you didn’t catch more or less spike lows, you are under water now. Moreover, all the key moving averages like the 30, 50 and 100 dmas are getting sliced through with ease on the downside. that’s not the marker of a trending bull IMO. where is the smart money? I’ll tell you–they know this isn’t “the” rally.
You will know when the true rally begins because the pull backs will be small and will bounce off key short term moving averages like the 20, 30 and 50 dmas consistently. The 100 dma should only be tested at extreme lows, i.e., at an intermediate cycle low.
Let’s not even mention that SIL made a lower low vs silver after silver was $7 off its lows (a 50% rally!). Are institutional buyers really that dumb that they would sell silver miner’s vs silver to such an extreme? I am dubious.
Look at Micron 2012-14 and 2016-2018; AMD 2016-22; wheat from 2006-2008 etc.
Well we got exactly what I thought/hoped we would and the “scary cleanout” I spoke of was in the context of the short term/daily chart which is why I sold my “trading position” in HL (and SILJ for that matter). I thought it was obvious that I was not talking about a “large pullback” (your words) of the sort that would be visible on the long term monthly or quarterly charts. I would have sold everything had I expected a debilitating pullback that would stop silver for the rest of the year as you see it.
Silver is now getting BETTER set up for a move significantly higher that will STICK.
“Silver is now getting BETTER set up for a move significantly higher that will STICK.”
I agree 1000%, I just don’t see the move higher (and by higher I mean making a higher high than this week’s high) beginning until months from now.
When do you think silver takes out this week’s high? I am going to take a stab and say October 2023.
Silver takes out this week’s high in March if I’m right about next week. Otherwise we’ll probably see a weekly MACD sell signal and the potential for your view which would probably come from big problems in the stock market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p35673281633&a=1345982699
Good move on HL sell the 27th, not so Feb 1st. buy.
Nevertheless the drop you hoped for has arrived.
Matthew
Feb 01, 2023 01:49 AM
I dig the action. It wasn’t quite the drop I was hoping for but I still bought HL and SILJ this morning among others.
Reply
That’s right. Little did I know the action I was hoping for was still coming. I really should learn to listen to me.
Ya happens, luck is as important as skill in this game.
Yes and understanding what’s happening somehow brings lots of good luck while confusion brings what you’ve got.
The Wall Street Algo Guy probably is going to get a free trip to Disney World for his activity today.
Final thoughts on this situation with the metals.
You can’t build upward momentum with pullbacks that violate multiple support levels in 2 days. All that does is create bagholders and massive overhead resistance, which is going to severely mute the power of any subsequent rally. No, the sign of a raging bull is correction through time and paying respect to the 20, 30 and 50 dmas so that new longs can build some confidence.
You don’t think the next touch of the 100 WMA is going to be sold hard if it manages to get back to that MA in the next few weeks or even a few months from now?
These pullbacks from critical resistance builds buying power in the form of trapped (panicked) shorts as well as former longs looking to jump back in (and compete with the shorts for shares).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65539545307&a=1338884203
I think Green has figured it out, it creates bagholders who keep buying the pullbacks.
I posted a week ago out, as market boring and going nowhere for which I was condemned
Staying out and loving it. Waitng for Joe to come thru LOL
The fact that you’re so busy here today is an excellent sign. All we need now is a “SELL SELL SELL!!!” from Joe on Monday. 😂
I doubt Joe will ever come out with a BUY BUY BUY.
It’s amazing how a comment from Joe can cause such an uprising with the deep thinkers on this site.
Of course he won’t. It won’t matter what happens he’s sold himself on calamity and widespread bankruptcies throughout the sector. Doc is similar and has not been confidently and unequivocally in exactly 10 years. The last time was February 2013 and he’s been a different person ever since.
Those who listened to Joe sold the lows needlessly due to misplaced fear.
SILV – SilverCrest – added @ $6.12