Craig Hemke – Investors In 2023 Should Be Concerned With The Macro Trends, Not Trading Every Blip
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to discuss a number of macroeconomic trends and themes he feels are key for 2023 as it unfolds, which make the case for a longer-term bullish setup in the precious metals sector.
We start off reflecting on the continued run higher in gold into the new year, hitting the $1900 level today, but notes that silver is stuck around the $24 level, and this may point to a corrective digestive period in the PMs in the near term. This ties into other near-term aspects on the calendar this month like Chinese New Year, the Feb futures contract rolling over at month end, and the oversold nature of the US dollar, which could have a relief rally soon. Craig feels it quite improbable though, to see a larger extended move down in the metals and mining stocks, and does not think a final washout in the sector is likely or even necessary at this point.
Next we dive more into some of the macro themes from his recent podcast at TF Metals (which is linked below this interview for anyone to listen to). These relate to how he sees the potential economic weakness and contraction in 2023 unfolding, and as the growing data of the recession increases in intensity, that the Fed will eventually need to change course and backstop the markets; in a similar manner to how things did in both 2010 and 2019. Craig emphasized it will be wise to be patient, block out a lot of the mainstream financial media noise which has been constantly wrong-footed, and instead focus on what actually plays out with regards to interest rates, currencies, monetary policy, and the technical set up on the charts in the year to come.
.
Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report
.
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/11901/tfmr-podcast-wednesday-january-11
I hope folks enjoyed the interviews today as it was a busy day of insights and precious metals banter with Goldfinger, The Hedgeless Horseman, and Turd Ferguson. 😉
Ever Upward!
Hey Ex, life is a party when you enjoy your job! LOL! YEAH BABY! DT🤣
Then I’m having quite a party lately. Cheers! 🙂
Good to hear! We are the beneficiaries. Thanks.
Right back atcha Lakedweller2. Thank you for all your contributions here at the KER.
More terrific insights right here too: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/11904/thursday-conversation-tom-luongo
Really good stuff …
Dollar Index : Winter 2023 : 40 Years
https://tinyurl.com/2v25vube
Which Way Western Man?
Houston, we have lift off! Gold now up over $15 at $1911.80!✨
Yes, nice to see the PMs continue ratcheting higher, although, I’m not expecting much more of a move before we at least see a small corrective move to digest these gains over the last few months (likely in tandem with the US Dollar taking a bounce).
Still, very nice to see Gold up to $1915 and Silver up to $24.25.
Earlier this week Dave Erfle, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Robert Sinn, and Craig Hemke all mentioned that $1920 area was going to be a layer of resistance (specifically $1921-$1923 where the 2011 prior all-time high occurred). We are now up flirting with pricing right in that resistance range, so a corrective move next week would not be a surprise, especially after Gold has tacked on $300 from the $1618 low on Nov 4th just 2 months ago.
Silver has already ratcheted up by $7 from it’s September low $17.40, and GDX and GDXJ are up about 50% in the last 4 months.
It’s been an epic move higher in the Precious Metals sector, and it’s even been a solid move higher in general equities for the last few months as well.
It makes one wish that they had just sold everything and gone to cower in cash a few months ago, like some of some vocal posters were suggesting, doesn’t it? 😉
Now Robert (Goldfinger) did put out this article over at ceo.ca today, warning that the sentiment is starting to get a bit elevated here, with the DSI hitting 90 recently. This is worth the quick read:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Gold Vaults Above $1900, Bandwagon Begins To Fill Up
by @Goldfinger on 13 Jan 2023
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-vaults-above-1900-bandwagon-begins-to-fill-up
Think non-linear. Especially now.
I’m thinking fractal these days….
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fractal&t=chromentp&atb=v314-1&ia=images&iax=images
Cool! Eventually the Dollar and Dollar Index (DXY) may become inaccurate measures of value as a ROW (Rest-Of-World) Index emerges. Then a DXY:ROW ratio will become primary. This unless Putin is part of the grand scam.
Yeah, the journey that the greenback goes versus the “Rest Of World” will be interesting to see unfold.
I expect the dollar still has a lot of room to fall versus other currencies and asset classes in the medium to longer term, but in the short-term, I’m expecting to see the dollar index bounce and get at least back up to 105, but more likely that 109-110 area, before then rolling over even harder to lower levels, possibly in the high 80s over the next 2 years.
The lunchtime crowd on CNBS today supported gold as a buy. I hit the side of the TV to make sure something wasn’t wrong.
Haha! Good one Lakedweller2.
Yeah, I get concerned when the main-stream financial media starts getting bullish on gold too early in a new move higher. We’ve only seen about a 4 month move in Silver and the mining stocks, and a 2 month move in Gold thus far. In the near-term, we may be getting close to period where we digest some of these gains for a bit, and back and fill, to shake off any froth or momo traders, and then recalibrate for the next move higher.
Another disappointing day from my silver miners in relative and absolute terms. AG and EXK especially have been absolute dogs for me.
More than ever, I expect EXK and AG to drop back to test their 100 day MAs within the next two weeks. All we are waiting for now is a more pronounced correction in silver (or perhaps just the general stock market) to induce that anticipated drop. If a correction in silver does come, I suspect it will not be much, or if it is a bit scary, it will be over within a matter of a few days.
Maybe I am wrong about this, but that is what I see based on their very weak technical performance. After all the misery these things have put us through, a real breakout is probably still a month away.
I wouldn’t summarize the success of silver miners just based on 2 companies EXK and AG.
First Majestic has been dragging it’s rear-end for a while now, and they’ve got Mexican tax issues and labor issue to contend with, and it’s not been as good of a performer as many of the other silver producers the last 4 months (or the last few years).
Endeavour Silver is one of the higher cost producers, and they lost their CEO Brad (who I really loved as a human being and as a leader) over the last part of last year, and so they’ve not had the wind at their backs either.
There are a lot of Silver producers, developers, and explorers up 50%-150% over the last few months, so overall there still has been some solid performance from much of the sector.
it’s really been the last two months for both where they have basically broken down against the other silver miners and silver itself. Very weird behavior.
That being said, if you look at AG:sil going back to the 2016 low, it’s basically formed a huge flat topped pennant formation, which typically break upwards. We are currently approaching the lower rail of that pennant.
If you look at the daily chart for AG:sil over the last 2 months, it looks like a machine is selling AG against the complex. It’s been an almost perfectly linear decline.
Yeah, I like First Majestic and the energy that Keith Neumeyer has for the silver sector, but it’s not a company I’ve owned in quite some time (years), because at one point it had too high of a premium compared to other peer companies that had more room to run, and lately it just hasn’t had the upside torque on rallies that it used to have, and that other silver companies have demonstrated. I guess, in a way, that underperformance we’ve seen to the metal and to other silver stocks, is making it more compelling now, but still I’ve got a nice basket of 20 silver stocks in my portfolio and if I added any more it would be from the smaller junior explorers and developers, as I’ve got plenty of producers and more advanced developers already.
FREAKY FRIDAY…………. Again…………..
AG:SLV weekly chart has formed a giant head and shoulders and is just overall ugly. By the looks of it, it wants to make new multiyear lows soon. I think this will all play out in the next 2 weeks.
Gold’s Rhino Pattern. Or is it a Tusk?
https://tinyurl.com/5e4tstba
I bought into a 25% back in July when gold was just above 1800. It is now well over 1900 and it took the added outperformance in gold to get into the black. The option plays taken on nem paid off handsomely without tying up a lot of capital.
The underperformance with sector equities is as has been the case for most of the past couple of years save and except the minority standouts like torex and alamos at all time highs.
The dregs continue to be dregs going nowhere fast such as ipt, ktn and brixton the most gushed over of all of them here by the bagholders accumulating for past couple years for the big 10 bagger.
The bullishness on this site and with the kitco promoters with gold and in particular silver is greater than never. Yet they point to all the bearishness out there and claim a contrarian view LOL
Brixton has tripled in 6 months. It was due for a pull back. It is going to go multiples higher from here and quickly.
And KTN went up 159% in under 2 months while IPT beat all the gold-silver miner ETFs with a 75% move off its low (65% according to stockcharts which is wrong).
The real dregs around here are jon syl, Joe and Doc with their complete inability to recognize weakness that should be bought.
You are only a bagholder if you buy high and sell low, I bought Brixton for 13 cents and that is a double. I also bought Silver Tiger for 20 cents, and it is up 80%, most of my other stocks are up 20-50%. I announced it on this site when I bought Brixton and Silver Tiger. I only have one stock out of many that is down 5%. DT
Great points DT. It depends on at what cost basis someone accumulated their position, but if people were buying into the silly valuations last summer and fall, they should have had some nice gains over the last few months.
Yeah, Silver Tiger is one of my picks for silver explorers in the portfolio, and it has had a very nice run as of late… heck even the last few days….
This news out yesterday of yet more bonanza grade silver intercepts is a wonderful thing to see…
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
(SLVR) (SLVTF) Silver Tiger Intersects 3,766.9 G/T AgEq Over 1.2 Meters Within 10.1 Meters Grading 474.2 G/T AgEq in the Shale Horizon in the Seitz Kelly Vein
12 Jan 2023
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/silver-tiger-intersects-37669-gt-ageq-over-12-meters
Commercials go massively net short in gold 15000 contracts for the week ending 1/20
Emerita saved the week for me but was offset somewhat by a correction in Magna Mining. I took profits in Magna and spread them by adding to Dynasty Gold, Osisko Metals, Surge Battery, i-80, Nine Mile, Fission3.0, Tectonic, Headwater Gold, back into a few Copper Lake and first time into Fathom Nickel and Red Pine. Other than that I did nothing productive or important and … not even sure which way all this is going.
I hardly did any trading this week, or even last week was minimal, which is uncommon for me, as I normally do 3-7 trades on any given day.
This week all I did was add a bit to my Gatos Silver, and I-80 gold positions earlier in the week on the long side, and then trimmed back my Silvercorp position just a little bit after a good run in it the last 3 months. I did also give more weight to my relatively new JDST position twice this week (including today) on the short side, as a hedge against my long PM mining stock portfolio.
The thesis in building a JDST position more this week is that Silver has been starting to get stuck lately around the $24 level and with the thought that Gold may get stuck at this current $1921-$1923 resistance zone, right where it ended up closing the week today on Friday (which overall I consider very bullish, but just at resistance).
Those figures of $1921 and $1923 are the prices (based on different charting platforms) for the prior all-time high from September of 2011. In addition, $1920 is another resistance level based on the $40 resistance rungs Craig has talked about (preceded by the resistance levels at $1880, $1840, $1800, $1760, $1721, $1680, etc….). Jordan had also mentioned that $1900 was key on the monthly charts, and that $1920 was key resistance based on other technicals he was watching on the weekly or daily charts.
It just occurred to me throughout the course of today that this Friday close in PM prices could have been a high water mark in Gold and Silver in the near-term. To ease my mind I decided to add more to the JDST hedge position… just in case. Overall, I’m still long and strong on the PM miners, but think they’ve really run a bit hard here for several months now, and with the DSI at 90 for gold, then sentiment is finally getting much more elevated.
>> To be clear, I would be far more thrilled to keep seeing the PMs blast even higher. I’ve been enjoying the portfolio value increasing nicely over the last few months. However, I reasoned that increasing my downside protection hedge at this point could pay off, to where I can then sell it back at a better price on any corrective move in the mining stocks in a few days or weeks, and then rotate those gains into any miners that may pull back by 15%+ in the short-term that I’d like to accumulate.
My account reached the top of its range bound channel today, again. If all goes to someone’s plan, it should be heading back down next week. If it doesn’t and goes up, that will be a break-out of sorts … for me and the World I live in.
So I am looking forward to “game on”.
Lakedweller2 – I’m rooting for your success and that your portfolio does break out above the current range soon. I think overall we are going to see some nice appreciation in the resource stocks as this year unfolds.
I took a bit of profits and bought into HZD, Silver beta down, to hedge also. It’s only a starter position and I am still bullish but see the possibility of a pull back also.
Good thoughts Dan, and yeah at this point in the first big upleg coming out of September of last uear, I don’t mind building a small hedge position against my long PM mining stocks position, in the event we do see a near-term corrective move dow in the space to digest the 4 month move higher.
Watching but don’t own; DV, Magna, Vizzla, SLVR (Doh!!!), ELEF, and more… they seem to have good leverage action on the way up.
The USA Silver miners seem to have more logical moves than the Canadian miners, just in my humble opinion.
Yeah, some of the better silver explorers lately in my portfolio have been Dolly Varden, Vizsla, and Silver Tiger for sure, but it makes sense as they’ve been putting out a series of great drill results with bonanza grade silver hits. As for Eloro, I don’t own it (but did, and may again soon), but they’ve been putting out really long polymetallic intercepts that appear to be forming an economic deposit with Tin, Silver, Zinc, Lead, and other base metals.
As for the US silver miners like Hecla or Coeur, they are more established, more liquid, have listings on the big US stock markets, and have more analysts following them, so there is less market surprise with them, but they still have excellent leverage to rising metals prices and improving margins.
Blackrock Silver is a US-based silver explorer/developer that I’m positioned in, that is continuing to do solid work, and I’m very interested to see more drill results released from both their Tonopah West project and their new Silver Cloud discovery.
Gold closes above $1,900 for first time in nine months on CPI ‘hangover’
Jan. 13, 2023
By every rule of logic, the situation coming out of Washington’s finances has now become more perilous than ever. Everything is preposterous now. There won’t be a recovery now. The storm signals are everywhere. Prosperity is not coming back; the financial leaders see what is going on, but the politicians are clueless. DT
The bank run scene from a “Wonderful Life”! Pay Attention! DT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTJCI1FNBfA
That’s why we are here.
(Politicians work for corporations. Corporations thrive under Fascists)
Good commentary on Dolly Varden. I have been patiently waiting for a pull back to buy more, but with all those pending drill results a good pullback might not happen.
In addition to the podcast from Craig Hemke, linked above under the episode description, here is another link to the his “Macrocast 2023 – One Step Beyond”.
We had referenced this a few times in today’s discussion, so I thought it would be nice to repost it here for anyone that wants to read it over.
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/11886/macrocast-2023-one-step-beyond