Joel Elconin – China Re-Opening Potential For Markets, Tech Continues To Struggle While Value Is Doing Well and Oil’s Bounce It Is The Start Of Another Uptrend
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website joins me to share his outlook for 2023 in terms of China, US markets and the oil sector.
We start with China and all the news around the county’s citizens being able to travel more freely as Covid restrictions have loosened. We look to what a re-open could do for the markets. We then move to the continued rotation out of tech and into value stocks. Look at today with the NASDAQ down around 1% with the Dow in positive territory. We wrap up with comments on oil and oil stocks. Is all the optimism for next year warranted.
There is a global debt crisis coming along with global recession. Nobody looking for that big stock crash that many analyst have been calling for for months, so watch out if it happens everything will get drawn down with stocks, oil, gold, miners, uranium. Could be big reset for many portfolio’s. I am taking cash off table on my energy stocks and miners on this latest gold pop and control greed and playing it safer in short term. 2023 could turn out to be nasty. If the big picture is huge for metals then there will be plenty of time to load up later 2023. I’m holding my basic core miners that bought few years back so won’t miss out too much if wrong but got bad feeling in my gut so that my plan short term.
Hi Paul, I don’t think you can’t trust what The Federal Reserve is going to do because they have lost the ability to tell their member banks what to do. Look out for stock prices to keep falling for a number of days. When you see a lot of stocks selling in huge numbers then you know it will be that the margin will be finding its way into speculators mail- boxes. Then if prices begin to advance once more almost as if nothing has happened, then it will look to me like The Reserve authorities are beaten. DT
I have not been calling for a crash in the stock market but the risk of one is now higher than many of those crash-callers seem to expect. Maybe they’ve been lulled to sleep by this terrible year that did not deliver one. If we do get one I think the miners will surprise you since they already went through their transition period of lockstep weakness with stocks just as they did 20 years ago. GDX fell over 45% from its April high while SPY fell more like 20% and the two are now parting ways which is why GDX is up close to 40% vs SPY since September.
Even most good analysts don’t seem to realize how bad things look for stocks and that’s probably because we haven’t had a similar situation since the early 1970s. This is nothing like 2008 and only somewhat like 2000.
Stocks in general look very bearish versus the gold/silver miners.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGDX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=t2787464602c&a=1317538575&r=1672193608006&cmd=print
Hi Matthew, I really value your analysis as do most investors that visit and participate on this site. Thanks for all you do. DT👍
Thank you DT 👍🍻
Couldn’t pass by on the discussion without signaling my agreement with DT’s comment. Thanks Matthew.
Thank you Canuckski!
JNK still looks like junk…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01830803446&a=1261220007
AMZN is down more than 50% but is just getting started (believe it or not)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=Q&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t9375035315c&a=1187905530&r=1672196320009&cmd=print
Silver looks fantastic versus SPY.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24SILVER&p=Q&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=t3573837115c&a=1312471728&r=1672197066540&cmd=print
I first posted this Nasdaq 100 chart many months ago and it is just as ominous today:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04018814340&a=1194245810&r=1672197206949&cmd=print
China Stocks Tell 2 Different Stories About The Economy
Myles Udland · Senior Markets Editor Yahoo Finance – Tue, December 27, 2022
“Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. were mostly higher on Tuesday amid optimism around Beijing’s decision to drop COVID-19 quarantine rules for inbound visitors, as the world’s second-largest economy abandons its long-held “COVID Zero” policy.
“But the slide in shares of EV makers like Tesla (TSLA) and a drop in Apple (AAPL) stock shows the all-clear hasn’t yet been given on negative impacts from the Chinese economy.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-stocks-tell-2-different-stories-about-the-economy-182145697.html