Jordan Roy-Byrne – Precious Metals Have Bottomed But Are Consolidating The Recent Rally
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to discuss his technical outlook on gold, silver and the precious metals mining stocks. We start off reviewing the recent corrective action in the PMs, after seeing silver stage a very constructive run off it’s $17.41 low in early September to close at $23.25 on Friday last week, and after seeing gold make a $200 move from $1618 in early November up to $1818 intraday last week. Jordan sees the resistance at the 200 day and 400 day moving averages as having been a factor in not just the metals retracing some of the move, but also in GDX and GDXJ turning down around those levels.
We then discuss if it isn’t more important for the recent bounce to be consolidated in time up at these higher levels, more so than at a specific price level. Jordan makes the point that while price and moving averages are important, that it is also very important to consider breadth indicators and inter-market analysis between gold and S&P 500, GDX and the S&P 500, the gold:silver ratio, and how these are reacting to recession concerns, and the eventual decoupling of the precious metals sector from the US general equities markets. Even if the recent consolidation takes a few more months of muted to corrective action, overall it appears that the bottom is in for prices in the sector.
Deep Thoughts For Passive Investors
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (12/07/2022)
“Is it possible, likely even, that this dramatic outperformance of the index over active funds was driven largely by flows rather than the lack of skill of active managers or some other explanation? In other words, could it be that the popularity of passive investing explains its success more than its success explains its popularity?”
“Furthermore, if it is true that the performance of the index has largely been driven by flows over the past five years, rather than the collective opinion of educated active investors, then how efficient is the market truly? Is it possible that the popularity of passive investing has helped to inflate another stock market bubble?”
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/12/07/deep-thoughts-for-passive-investors/
Mutual Funds That Consistently Beat the Market? Not One of 2,132.
By Jeff Sommer – New York Times – Dec 4, 2022
“No actively managed stock or bond funds outperformed the market convincingly and regularly over the last five years. Index funds have generally been better.”
“It’s very hard to beat the stock or bond markets with any regularity. Each year, some investors manage to do it, of course, but can they do it consistently? A new study of actively managed mutual funds by S&P Dow Jones Indices asked that question and came up with a startling result.”
“It found that not a single mutual fund — not one — managed to beat its benchmark in either the US stock or bond markets regularly and convincingly over the last five years. These results are even worse than those of 2014 and 2015, when I last examined this subject closely.”
“If you want to be adventurous and pick stocks or actively managed funds, go ahead, of course,” Tim Edwards, global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in an interview. “But understand the risks you are taking.”
These findings support practical advice that has been the academic consensus for decades. Forget about trying to beat the odds and outsmarting everybody else. Instead, use low-cost stock and bond index funds that mirror the overall market, and keep them for decades. Don’t bother with fads or fancy market timing.
“While it’s possible to beat index funds, it’s not easy to do over the long run, and as Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel in economics said in the 1970s, it isn’t worthwhile for most of us to try…”
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mutual-funds-that-consistently-beat-the-market-not-one-of-2132
Washington is telling the rest of The World that if they buy Russian oil, they can only pay $60 US a barrel. Russia is telling the rest of The World that if they only pay $60 for their oil, they will never get another drop of Russian oil. Russia is the second largest exporter of oil in The World. Russia will now want gold in exchange for their oil. Who wants monopoly money that doesn’t even track The World market. LOL! DT
DT – stay tuned to the weekend show, as we had a very interesting chat with Dan Steffens about that a number of other factors shaping the oil & nat gas markets today, that airs on Saturday.
It’s been amazing to see the range of trading on the high side and recent low side in the energy markets in 2022.
The sort of institutions that I have believed in all my life, are falling like a set of dominoes, you can’t make this stuff up it is too weird. DT
I’ve never really believed in any of these institutions all my life, and have seen the lies, misdeeds, and cracks under the surface for some time in nations, religions, news outlets, government agencies, the UN, global elite organizations etc…as have many others, and have just been waiting for the dominoes to fall.
It seems like over the last 2 to 3 years the masses have finally started to wake up to the lies from the puppet masters, and started to reclaim their power of discernment, instead of giving away their power to 3rd party institutions of people & organizations that they previously put on pedestals.
It’s sad that it synched up with the elites schedule for the initial timeline for Agenda 2020…and setting up for the next step in the process which is Agenda 2030, or more popularly known as The Great Reset. It is good that the mass awakening is starting to happen though… better late than never.
Hi Ex, when I said the sort of institutions, I have believed in all my life, I was being facetious and sarcastic. There is a place in life for sarcasm no matter how much it hurts. I couldn’t agree more with you. DT
Ah yes, DT. Yes, there is a good place for sarcasm for sure. 🙂
Sorry, I didn’t catch that you were just kidding around, and actually thought you were being serious, because I’ve heard that same sentiment from so many people over the last few years, and even lately… about the institutions they believed in their whole life failing them and it being an odd moment of realization for them.
ONE BIG SICK JOKE…………………………….. 🙂
WAKING UP THE SHEEPLE…………….. LOL………..
ABOUT TIME…………………………………… 🙂
For sure OOTB…. Some of the sheeple are awaking into free-thinking people, but it sure took a lot of chaos the last few years to jostle some of them out of their slumber. haha! 🙂
One of the bargaining points during the Oil Embargo of 1974 was that the Saudis were demanding payment for their oil in gold. One item mentioned during the discussions was invasion of Saudi Arabia by the U.S. When oil shipments resumed in April of 1974, the price of crude oil had quadrupled, and the world hasn’t been the same since. I remember reading a newspaper article in 1978 about how much money this country was spending on imported oil. It was called the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of the world.
https://citizentruth.org/the-secret-deal-that-formed-the-us-and-saudi-arabias-special-relationship/
I wonder what the next few trading days will bring? I seems more folks, including Jordan here still don’t believe this move. Soon enough, he will be proven right or wrong soon. Although I do respect his charting, I hope he is wrong; I really don’t want this feeling to stop. Up 47% in 2 months.
Matt, how do you read this?
I do believe this move is the real deal but there will be more reason for the doubters to doubt it before the month/year is over and the next Fed meeting will probably coincide with the next strong pullback.
There’s a lot to like about the action lately and even for months and I really like the way silver is outperforming everything else in the sector including gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67502588886&a=1306255219
Silver:HUI bottomed way back in April and then rallied 44% by September yet clueless bears and “experts” everywhere kept worrying about gold plunging several hundred more dollars.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p46101768223
G savage thinks the bubble phase in gold has begun and will last 1.5 years.
Personally, I think this final phase will last exactly 2 years from the recent low. I think some of the miners can make a move similar to TSLA between 2019-21.
Listened to an earlier interview with Mark Bristow of Barrick and one thing he said was that he doesn’t see any value in the M&A activity happening today but does see value in buying back Barrick shares.
Hi Terry, Barrick has that big mine coming online in Afghanistan (or Pakistan) but most majors will need to acquire other companies to replenish their stores, that is a given. You never know what might happen, Barrick wanted Great Bear, they could be waiting to take a run at Kinross, what they say and what they do are two different things. If you are not aggressive in The World of Mining you face the risk of being swallowed up, I have seen this time and time again. DT
RETARD NOTICE…………………..
The Truth About the Federal Reserve
by Chris Black
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says it will back each Federal Reserve Note in circulation with forty cents of gold.
They don’t do this.
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says that bankers are to be held personally responsible if they fail.
They are not.
POWELL NEEDS TO BE ON tHE HOT SEAT………..
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says that it will use its profits to supplement the gold reserve and pay down any US debt.
It definitely doesn’t do this. lol
The Federal Reserve has 3 mandates —people now only talk about the dual mandates, which are stable prices and low unemployment—the third mandate is to keep long term interest rates constant.
They don’t do this.
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says that the Fed will maintain parity of all forms of legal money issued by the US and strengthen the gold reserve.
They don’t do this.
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says the Fed Board will ***audit Fed banks at will.
They don’t do this.
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says it will maintain a gold account at the Treasury.
It doesn’t do this.
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says the Fed’s franchise will be forfeited if they violate law.
ONE BIG >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>FRAUD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This sounds like a good idea for a show where the old FRA is compared to today including any changes in their mandates in between.
The Fed mandate is to Transfer The US Treasury to banking and corporate elite without allowing audit.
OOTB – Great points on the corrupt and failed central bank…(that shouldn’t even be allowed to exist or exercise it’s influence upon the nation in the first place). Sadly though, it does exist, and very few of the politicians had the spine to force this private bank to keep it’s agreement, and thus we are in the mess that we have today.
It looks like Gold & Silver are having another solid green day today. I’m glad I took most of my JDST off the table on Monday, and sold the rest yesterday. It was a good trade and worked out to nice 8.5% profit overall from both trades combined, but it looks like the PMs want to keep moving higher. Nice to see some strength in what is typically a tougher time of year in December and it may stave off any serious tax loss selling that some were still anticipating.
My only concern is that if the PMs keep rallying here, instead of doing a sideways to down consolidation, that they may exhaust the buying heading into the seasonally favorable Q1 run in Jan-Feb (and sometimes into early Mar). Regardless, it is encouraging to see that December was not the bloodbath to new extreme lows that some were vocally warning about up until just a few months back. Nice to see some green on the screen in this sector lately.
There was a lot of inflation in America starting in 1927, The Fed had done the same thing they are doing now, printing money and lowering rates until the system becomes so corrupt that it depends on them printing more money. In 1929 when there was a money pinch, they purposely allowed the market to crash by not intervening at a critical stage, they wanted the crash then as now. What is different now is they have made it impossible for them to stop the crash by overprinting money for many years and keeping the interest rate near zero. The outcome is the same only now it is made to look like they are supporting the markets by being good guys and not the bad guys who walked away from their responsibilities. Rinse and repeat over and over, the end result is the same. The carpetbaggers swoop down when the economy is broken and buy up valuable assets for pennies on the dollar. DT
Sorry guys…I bought back into HighGold and price tanked. Looks good so I think it will come back.
Hi Lake, it is too bad about your loss, I get up before the markets open and read the news releases. Unfortunately, we live in a time when it is sell the news unless the news is overwhelmingly positive. This morning’s news release was not great, the underlying fundamentals look strong to me, but I could see the selloff coming. DT
Very strange indeed. If I go into my phone or my computer, the Highgold News is not there at the ceo.ca site mining news. (I go through the news everytime I trade and usually go to the site) At this time, if I go to the Highgold site, it is there and if I open it, it shows that it was posted 8 hours ago through Business wire on ceo.ca site. If I go back to my phone and computer and go to the “8 hour ago” spot on ceo.ca, it is not there. There were only 4 at the 8 hours ago. Weird but I am not in it for todays release, but past releases. My account is hit everyday and I put no validity in day to day action until such time as everything implodes on the banks. Until I just complain about crime and criminals because that is all that is being traded in these markets…insiders and criminals.
Just checked and my average .53, so most of the down came before I bought. Everything good.
Thanks Lake, I bought some HIGH this morning… and a bit of BBB. Santacruz is holding up much better than I anticipated. I thought I could buy back in around 0.40 but it didn’t make it and has recovered from where I sold from.
Dan:
I have some silver stocks but I haven’t learned to trust JPM and their intervention in markets. They carry 5 Felonies, one of which is for Precious Metals manipulation. However, over the last several weeks I have been entering or adding to the following (I almost am hesitant to say what I am doing because everyday my account trades in the same range)… but here is where I have been: Eloro, I-80, Timberline, Magna mining, Surge Battery, Fission 3.0, Nine Mile, Fireweed, Osisko Metals, Golden Lake, Sokoman, Lion One, HighGold, Emerita. FWIW
Best Gains: i-80, Surge Battery, Theralse (low cost), Snowline, Tectonic, Brixton, Fission 3.0 and MagnaMining. Those gains are relative as my account trades in a Range and I am on the downside in the Range for the last 2 weeks. Quality is moot as they alternate days up and down which indicates computer intervention due to the predictability of values day after day.
I bought some more Brixton today, there are some winners that instead of selling to capture some profit you may need to “Press The Bet”, that is how I feel about this stock. (not for everyone) DT
I posted above how I think the gold bull only has 2 years to run. However, this assumes we are able to break out imminently.
The other possibility is that silver won’t be able to clear $26ish in the near term and will then proceed to consolidate between its flat 600 dma (roughly $24) and its gently rising 200 dma (which should flatten and turn up around $20) for most of 2023. This will add about a year to my 2 year bull market call. So a bubble peak sometime in 2025.
May be an entertaining close: Surge Battery Metals
Good News this morning on a Lthium play.
It has been going up, but it opened more up at @28%, dropped back to from 8-17% depending which site you check, and Volume of anywhere from 4.3 mil to over 6 mil.
Let’s see how close goes.
Surge from +28% to +3.77% at close with over 6 million traded. Day traders and shorts had a good day. But Surge still found some Lithium. Will call it a one day tie
Key Levels for Gold & Silver Into 2023
Jordan Roy-Bryne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – December 07, 2022
https://thedailygold.com/key-levels-for-gold-silver-into-2023/