Fibo Bogie Range: 25.29 to 24.99

Of course silver will blow away gold and the silver miners will blow away everything.
For the first time since June silver has back-to-back weekly closes above its 200 week MA:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p32906974784&a=1284100415

A strong pullback in SLV:GNX = a strong buy for silver.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3A%24GNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p52011687164&a=1288826636

Hi Matthew, thanks for your feedback, much appreciated. I also like your take on the silver miners in particular the juniors, interesting! DT

Looked at the holdings of SILJ and very surprised at the silver junior miners that are NOT included in that ETF.

Thanks Glen! I am pretty loaded up. Good luck to you as well.

Hi there Glenfidish. Yes, good points on technical analysis being about probabilities, and that the technicians that have a propensity to be right more than they are wrong about these probabilistic outcomes really stand out from the rest of the pack (like Gareth Soloway and him outlining the crypto crash fairly accurately in advance, even those most of the HODL’ers were mocking his TA the whole time).

Thanks for sharing your technical outlook on the US Dollar and what it may mean for the PMs. The greenback has been a difficult one for many to call as well, with many perpetually thinking it was rolling over the whole way up, only to see the buck keep going higher and higher until peaked out recently at the 114.70 level. Many are watching 105 and 104 as a potential support level (which it did get down in the higher 105’s the beginning of last week). Whether or not it gets down to 102-103, as you are looking for or not, I agree with you that it is due for a relief rally, and may have already begun that the middle to end of this last week. Some technicians think it will rally back up to the 108-109 level before rolling back over again and heading much lower, and the other camp believes the dollar is still in a strong uptrend and is going to go up and make even higher highs (possibly up to that 120-121 level). It’s a tough call and again, most technicians and both the dollare bears and bulls have been wrong-footed on the greenback almost all year long.

Regardless, as far as Gold – it does seem like the move down below the key support of $1675 on three different occasions recently to the $1622-$1618 zone, does seem like it could be the intermediate bottoming area. If the yellow metal can hold onto most of it’s recent gains, and bottom in the low $1700’s (like that $1721 support), then that would be ideal. Gold has already tested the $1673-$1678 zone PLENTY of times now, and tested the lower $1600s in that $1622-$1618 thrice, so it isn’t necessary to backtest those levels again, and actually would be much better if it didn’t and instead put in a higher low, like silver has been doing.

There are a number of technicians and quant guys that were quite vocal that if $1675 broke again, and wasn’t quickly reversed, that the odds were a move down in Gold to the $1500’s or even mid $1400s. I felt that view was too bearish then, and still feel it is too bearish now, all things considered. However, if the US dollar was to ratchet up to 120-121, coinciding with a general market smash to new lows, then while I see it is less likely, it would still be a potential outcome. There are some that still think as the Fed keeps hiking rates in December and the 1st quarter of 2023, that there is more weakness to come in the PMs, so we’ll see if that plays out. To me, it seems much more like the forward looking markets are already eyeing the end of the rate hiking cycle in Q1 2023, and thus see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Personally, I’m very impressed with Silver, having bottomed in early September, before Gold and the mining stocks, and then lead the charge higher making a pattern of higher lows. The PM mining stocks then bottomed a few weeks later in late September and have been clawing their way higher as well since then, even when Gold was still making lower lows. That is that “non-confirmation bottom” we’d talked with Jordan and Dave Erfle and Steve Penny about a few times in Sept & Oct, even when many were still way too bearish and expecting the other shoe to drop and for the metals and miners to really fall out of bed. Remember the $14 Silver calls, and projections for GDX and GDXJ to blast down below their 2016 lows and lower? That looks to be off the table for the most part now.

Overall, the move higher in Silver, starting with that big short squeeze off of $17.40 and then into the mid $19’s was the first shot across the bow. Then the move up in the mining stocks starting in late September to present, in fits and starts, when some folks on here were advising everyone to “Sell everything and go to cash” was a nice contrarian signal once again. Since then Silver and the mining stocks did not fall out of bed and kept moving higher, that was the cue that the precious metals were holding together better than most were giving them credit for.

It looks like on Nov 4th, Gold finally got the memo and put in an intermediate intraday low at $1618, before reversing course and blasting up over $173 to $1791.80, (getting above both the 144 day EMA and briefly the 233 day EMA before retreating back down).

https://schrts.co/WBGAfjwc

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70864711401&a=1202025874