Marc Chandler – Jobs Number, Central Bank Interventions, And Inflation
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc To Market website, joins us to recap this week’s market moves, todays jobs number, central bank interventions, and inflation. We start off reviewing that one of the key takeaways in the jobs number, that came in just a little higher than expectations, was the lower unemployment rate of 3.5%, and this strong labor market gives the Fed more room to keep hiking rates longer and higher than many initially expected.
Next we review the recent rebound in the US Dollar and how it is moving in comparison to other currencies where we see more intervention to back stop market volatility. Marc unpacks the different strategies deployed by the Bank of England versus the Bank of Japan, and also the bigger process going on with the IMF and banks using swap lines.
We wrap up looking forward to the CPI data on inflation that we’ll get next week, and that it will be key to see how energy factors into the differential between headline inflation versus core inflation. We also look at what it may mean for China as they come back next week from holiday to a flurry of data on lending, trade, PPI, and CPI.
But LARRY what do you think about the PENSIONS??? In the middle of a big fight right now over a local tax increase on the ballot and the local politicians and tax eaters WON’T TALK ABOUT IT even though we all know the roads and everything else is falling apart because they stole the infrastructure money for the PENSIONS. But I think the sheeple voters are completely clueless about that.
And in my opinion the worst is yet to come in the stock market so these local public employee pensions will be toast. These tax increases aren’t even band aids.
Over fifteen years ago I took my Australian government pension as a lump sum and glad I did cause they don’t offer that option any more. Defined benefit now for all the remaining, unfortunate sheeple.
Hi Terry, I ‘m not sure you did the right thing in cashing out your pension 15 years ago, I have one pension that I paid 33,000 into and have received more than 4 times that amount back, and that was only 9 years ago. If I had to make the same decision now, I would probably cash it out! DT
DT you’re doing very well with that one. Four times your money in nine years is hard to beat.
Pensions … really.
How many trillions have been used to bailout Corporate fraud. Fraud is ok… is that the message.
Yes, really. I’m talking about the government pensions. Are you a government employee?
These are the pensions I am talking about.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/02/04/californians-face-a-wave-of-local-tax-hike-measures/
Larry Summer is a protege of Robert Rubin. Robert Rubin was a former CEO of Citi and in the Clinton Administration in various key positions. He worked at overturning Glass Steagall and was finally successful as Clinton heading out the door. Larry Summers wrote a paper that you had to suppress the price of gold to protect an unbacked fiat currency. These are two dangerous people that promote Central Banking and transfer of wealth. They are quick to criticize things they support to gain trust in gaining power to sustain the unregulated and unbacked fiat system. They want positions in the government where they can control policy.
Bob Hoye has a list of speculative stocks in his latest article out on 321gold.com. I know about half of them, and only own one. I guess I have only scratched the surface although I have played this game for quite a few years. Any way here is the list he mentions: G-T, BSR-T, CSG-V, DEX-V, HAR-V, HSTR-V, HIGH-V, SBB-T, RIO-V, PGM-V, RK-V, SMD-V. DT
DT – Thanks for including the tickers you saw in that Bob Hoye post, as I was familiar with most of the companies but hadn’t checked in on some of those companies in quite a while, so it was nice to review some stories of old that are not discussed as often.
I was surprised at how well DEX.V Almadex Minerals Ltd. has done over the last 2 years, and even the last 2-3 months all things considered. Looks like that just sampled some very high grades at surface that they’ll be following up with for drilling. That is not one I’ve been following, but am adding it to my closer watchlist now (it was on a general PM exploration watchlist but I’d not really looked at it independently). Interesting.
Special Market Cycles Report with Peter Eliades
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H73hldgItMg
I don’t know what you think but I believe that Marc Chandler believes too much in the system and in the government statistics. DT
Does The OPEC+ Oil Price Rally Have Legs?
OilPrice.com – Oct 07, 2022
“U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are up sharply late Thursday and for the week after OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to tighten global supply with a deal to cut production targets by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), the largest reduction since 2020.
The agreement comes ahead of a European Union Embargo on Russian oil and would squeeze supplies in an already tight market, adding to inflation, according to Reuters.
Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said the real supply cut would be about 1 million to 1.1 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s share of the cut is about 0.5 million bpd.
Biden Administration Calls OPEC+’s Decision Shortsighted.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Does-The-OPEC-Oil-Price-Rally-Have-Legs.html
The OPEC+ Cut Is A Disaster For President Biden
By Tom Kool – Oct 07, 2022
“The OPEC+ decision to cut its production quota by 2 million bpd has placed the Biden Administration between a rock and a hard place, with oil prices climbing ahead of the mid-terms and very few viable options to counter it…”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-OPEC-Cut-Is-A-Disaster-For-President-Biden.html
What concerns me is that Biden keeps tapping into the Strategic Reserves, which are not stored so someone sells them into the markets to suppress gas at the pumps prices. They are there for national emergencies like national defense, or hurricanes wiping out refineries or supply lines cut off … because we are NOT oil independent. Reserves should not be used for political agendas anymore than Markets should be. But that is what criminal politicians do as they don’t care about the people, the country or the Constitution. But they tell their constituents whatever is necessary to maintain power.
We don’t need them.
Great point about the releasing of the strategic petroleum reserves Lakedweller2. We actually had a big chat with Dan Steffens today, and he gets into that very topic during the conversation. It will be posted this coming Tuesday, so stay tuned for that interview. Dan is a very sharp guy as it relates to the energy sector.
Wall Street Tumbles As Jobs Growth Cements Rate Hike Bets
By Shreyashi Sanyal and Ankika Biswas – Oct 07, 2022
“U.S. stocks nosedived on Friday as solid job growth and a drop in the unemployment rate last month boosted the chances of more jumbo-sized interest rate hikes…”
“The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month after rising 315,000 in August. The report also showed the jobless rate fell to 3.5% in September, lower than expectations of 3.7%. Traders now see a 92% chance of 75 basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve, up from 83.4% before data.”
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/nasdaq-futures-slip-on-amd-warning-jobs-data-awaited-2907248
Fed To Deliver Another Big Rate Hike As Job Market Fails To Cool
Ann Saphir – Fri, October 7, 2022
“The Federal Reserve looks almost certain to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis point interest rate hike next month after a closely watched report Friday showed its aggressive rate hikes so far this year have done little to cool the U.S. labor market.”
“Pricing of futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate implied a 92% chance that the Fed will raise its policy rate, now at 3%-3.25%, to a 3.75%-4% range when it meets Nov. 1-2.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fed-deliver-another-big-rate-133815851.html
The Fed thinks they are omnipotent, and they can control the market, they can’t. They create their own statistics hoping it will stick, this only works in a Bull Market when everyone feels rich. In a bear market that they have created they will not be so lucky to have their way. DT
Agreed DT.
Bloomberg shills don’t know what to do with this guest of theirs…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woQKGOrjpYs&ab_channel=Memology101
Great clip! Honest comments from the guy whose policies nearly destroyed the Russian economy throughout the 1990s.
Marc really has his ear to the ground……………I don’t miss a word when he speaks ! Thanx Marc !
My take away is that there has been very little air coming out of the consumption bubble to date , even with the ramped up tightening by the FED. We are still dealing with a runaway train………………This is concerning for the markets……………as more downside pain takes hold……………..I am starting to see the light in terms of what Larry Summers has been preaching, as he warned the money wizards about this two years ago…………….that they were unleashing a MONSTER ! He sees FED going to 5 % possibly to get neutral, to slay the dragon…………….and unemployment to 5-5.5 % as well……………….when I heard that, and felt the wet spot in my pants………..I went 95 % into cash ……………..that was a month ago……………sitting on my hands !!!!!!!
We have now, Q3 earnings to contend with and the downward forward guidance within, this has not been priced in yet. and then Q4 reporting when things really start to bite in the real economy……………..there is a whole new crop of money managers in the last 20 years that have not personally gone through the 2008-9 story, (where the FED raised 1/4 point… 21 times in a row…..and caused the train wreck last time too)………………..and it will be interesting to see how the young crop respond to earnings dropping 10, 15 or 20 percent over the next 6 months………………………car sales are dropping hard and mortgages have been drying up at record levels as they push 7 % on the 30 year……………does anybody really think this is sustainable………….and we are only getting started ?
Then let’s consider what oil prices have done this weak and the impact on October inflation stats for November ! Is this going to be pretty !
………Martin Armstrong’s quote —— “everything, is related to everything else as an exchange medium, when one thing goes up another thing must come down………………..and that’s all we really have”…………… a nice and simple explanation of the game !
The hyper-liquidity that the fed created for over a decade ($9 trillion) is now being reversed……………Value of Cash seems to be going up right now relative to everything else… Someday this will also change
…………we are in crazy times and I feel being a student of history is really paying dividends for me right now ………………………Peace of Mind ! GLTA