John Rubino – Do The Recent Challenges In Global Financial Markets Signal We Are Closer To Something Breaking?
John Rubino, Founder of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us for a wide-ranging discussion on the Credit Suisse banking concerns, the ramifications of central bank tightening into high inflation, pain in the housing market, and the question of what interest rates will cause something in the macroeconomic picture to break?
Next we discuss the recent fluctuations in currencies with the yen and pound being backstopped by their central bank and heading higher, which is pressuring the US dollar lower, and providing a lift to gold, silver, and the general equities. John provides some context to how precious metals have performed in prior cycles, and what he expects to see moving forward when the central banks shift back to reliquefying the markets.
We wrap up with thoughts on the energy sector, how oil and nat gas have performed as better inflation hedges, but that it is really bad energy policies from many countries that lead us to this point. John is most optimistic on the prospects of increasing nuclear energy power generation, and what that may mean for higher uranium prices and the uranium mining stocks.
It could go lower than that, Glen(wishful thinking).
XAU looks good to go but of course there will probably be a short term pullback soon. I can hardly wait for the usual jesters to start whining again or cry “sell sell sell!”
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p78330620744&a=1261235653
Excellent interview by Adam Taggart of Danielle DiMartino Booth on wealthion.com
Part 1 and 2.
Very good about the Fed future actions, comments concerning Dr Lacy Hunt and where things seemed to be headed.
(Just me, but it sounds like they drained the Treasury swamp as much as they can and are going to dump on the Retail bag holders by just crashing the system and never looking back)
Larry McDonald of @BearTrapsReport 4:53 AM · Oct 3, 2022 · Twitter Web App
“In the coming 2-4 weeks, we expect a meaningful walk-back from #Powell with a focus on financial stability.”
Lakedweller2 – Thanks for posting about that Wealthion interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth.
Here is a link to that video in case anyone else may be interested.
___________________________________________________________________________
S&P To Drop To 3000, Possibly Lower? | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Here is part 1.
Fed Sacrificing Markets & Global Economy In Crusade To Kill Inflation | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Today was a pretty epic day in the mining stocks, and I’m actually a little surprised there were not more comments about how well the gold and silver miners performed today.
Silver was up over 8% at one point, and there were many mining stocks up bigly on the day, and that’s on the back of pretty nice move higher on Wednesday and Friday last week in the PMs. That’s been a nice change of pace lately… this has been a nice rally to have been part of… unless somebody sold everything early last week to go to cash… 😉
Symbol – Silver Producers – Daily Change %
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +18.68%
IPT.V Impact Silver Corp. +16.67%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +15.94%
GSVR.V Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd. +14.86%
GATO Gatos Silver, Inc. +13.81%
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +13.74%
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +13.58%
APM.V Andean Precious Metals Corp. +10.39%
AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +10.10%
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +9.87%
HL Hecla Mining Company +8.88%
FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +7.94%
SILV SilverCrest Metals Inc. +7.78%
MAG MAG Silver Corp. +7.53%
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +7.35%
SMTS Sierra Metals Inc. +7.17%
AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. +6.82%
AYA.TO Aya Gold & Silver Inc. +6.62%
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +6.36%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +5.70%
AUMN Golden Minerals Company +4.65%
FRES.L Fresnillo plc +3.80%
BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +3.45%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +2.46%
SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +1.84%
Symbol – Silver Developers and Explorers – Daily Change %
BHS.V Bayhorse Silver Inc. +28.57%
SSE.V Silver Spruce Resources Inc. +25.00%
AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. +24.29%
KS.V Klondike Silver Corp. +22.22%
SSVR.V Summa Silver Corp. +20.00%
EQTY.V Equity Metals Corporation +20.00%
TM.V Trigon Metals Inc. +20.00%
SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +18.18%
JAX.V Jaxon Mining Inc. +16.67%
SXL.V Slam Exploration Ltd. +16.67%
CMB.V CMC Metals Ltd. +16.67%
GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +16.00%
GOG.V Golden Tag Resources Ltd. +15.15%
DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +14.89%
BRC.V Blackrock Silver Corp. +14.81%
SLVR.V Silver Tiger Metals Inc. +14.58%
KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc. +13.04%
HAMR.CN Silver Hammer Mining Corp. +12.90%
SAND.CN Silver Sands Resources Corp. +12.50%
OCG.V Outcrop Silver & Gold Corporation +12.50%
ZAC.V Zacatecas Silver Corp. +12.12%
DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +11.49%
CCW.V Canada Silver Cobalt Works Inc. +11.11%
SAE.V Sable Resources Ltd. +11.11%
RSLV.V Reyna Silver Corp. +10.77%
BML.AX Boab Metals Limited +10.53%
SWLF.V Silver Wolf Exploration Ltd. +10.00%
AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +9.80%
TMZ.AX Thomson Resources Ltd +9.52%
IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited +9.09%
HSLV.CN Highlander Silver Corp. +8.82%
NBNKR.CN Bunker Hill Mining Corp. +8.70%
SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +8.57%
ABRA.V AbraSilver Resource Corp. +8.33%
AZT.V Aztec Minerals Corp. +8.16%
CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +7.69%
MNTR.V Mantaro Precious Metals Corp. +7.69%
ELEF.TO Silver Elephant Mining Corp. +7.55%
SMI.AX Santana Minerals Limited +7.50%
DSV.V Discovery Silver Corp. +7.45%
VRR.V VR Resources Ltd. +7.41%
NUAG.TO New Pacific Metals Corp. +6.57%
SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited +5.88%
EXN Excellon Resources Inc. +5.70%
SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +5.66%
SAG.V Sterling Metals Corp. +5.45%
UFO.L Alien Metals Ltd +4.85%
VZLA.V Vizsla Silver Corp. +4.43%
CD.V Cantex Mine Development Corp. +3.92%
MKR.AX Manuka Resources Limited +3.57%
CKG.V Chesapeake Gold Corp. +3.50%
SLV.CN Silver Dollar Resources Inc. +3.08%
VIPR.V Silver Viper Minerals Corp. +2.08%
G1A.AX Galena Mining Limited +1.80%
VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +1.37%
WRM.AX White Rock Minerals Ltd +1.27%
The lack of comments can only be seen as bullish. Remember, the vast majority of players become increasingly bearish as prices fall. There are no exceptions to that fact so it’s safe to say that few believe that we might have seen any low much less an extremely important one.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7036558920c&a=1038741662&r=1664862200556&cmd=print
Good points Matthew. Yes, at this point, with so much bearishness across the sector, the surprises will be to the upside.
I was up today but had some strange reporting in my account. Your data showed Summa +20%. My account showed N/A for no activity. Brunswick Exploration showed down 38% because they were using the Canadian closing price as the usd closing which is quite different. Those 2 alone accounted for a $6500 swing in profits. I am beginning to wonder if Schwab runs its own markets. That would be a terrible thing if true. (Those kind of errors distort account value on a real time basis, but should correct by running the overnight processing. It is still frustrating when your account has a good day and it is understated. To know actual value, you have to serf to know actual prices and often do currency conversions.)
Hi Lakedweller2 – yeah the percentage gains moves above were off the primary tickers, and not the OTC tickers, so for SSVR Summa Silver it was up 20% for the close yesterday. I believe the OTC was still up double digits yesterday, so yeah there must be something wrong with the way your Schwab account was reporting back those numbers then.
To be fair Ex, most of us here share information and opinions regardless of the ups or downs. Yesterdays move in silver was a nice surprise but I don’t think it official can be referred to as a trend reversal just yet. Although I would defer to Matthew and others regarding that. It would really make us the pompom tinfoil hat wearers we are accused of being if we showed up in droves only on big up days……but I do also get it that some sort of acknowledgement of the type of day silver had could and maybe should have been discussed. It’s a fine line. 😎
Hi Wolfster. Yes, understood that we are all on here commenting on the up days and the down days, and have been for many many years regardless of the daily action.
I also never suggested or stated it was the reversal of a trend or people should get out pom-poms and tinfoil hats, so that comment was out of place. I simply stated we saw a nice pop both Wed & Fri of last week in the PMs, so to see more follow through on Monday was nice to see. It is an investing forum of ideas and I was just making conversation and an observation.
There has just been a lot of bearish comments on the sector and related stocks lately on the blog, and then Silver is up over 8.5% on the day (which clearly was at least a short-squeeze as that is a big move), and then many of the silver stocks were up high single digits to double digits, and there were just very few comments acknowledging it was all. My account was up 8.2% yesterday which was one if the largest moves in recent memory. I have to believe other folks here invested in this sector had great moves higher in their account values as well, and was surprised there weren’t more comments about the outsized gains on the day is all.
Ever Upward.
I’d also point out that Silver gapped up again today and is now up to $21.18, and was as high as $21.31 today.
So, starting the middle of last week on Wednesday’s trading there seems to be at least a tradable rally that has been underway in the PM sector for both the metals and the mining stocks.
If people recall, last Monday and Tuesday was brutal and we saw plenty of comments about how bad the sector was, to “Sell everything and go to cash”, and all we heard about were lower targets. We had discussed the BPGDM was flashing a very low 7 reading, and most stocks were totally bombed out and oversold on the momentum indicators on the daily charts. This is why I had mentioned adding to a half-dozen positions last Monday and Tuesday into the weakness when many were capitulating or hanging out on the sidelines.
It is that kind of a low sentiment and technically oversold area, where relief rallies and short-covering rallies are birthed. When people are convinced it is the end of the world…. it usually isn’t, and much of what we saw from 2 Fridays ago trading last Mon/Tue looked like capitulation style sell-offs. When we got our site trolls talking about the sector gurgling down the drain and telling everyone to sell, it was a great contrarian indicator once again.
I won’t say any more about the data coming in, the solid moves higher on 4 of the 5 last trading sessions, or the reversal in fortune in the metals and miners on the charts though, so as not to be accused as being a pom-pom waiver.
Well done …..you stopped just before crossing that fine line.👏👏👏…😎
Haha! Thanks amigo. 🙂
U.N. Agency Warns Of Recession Linked To ‘Imprudent’ Monetary Policy
Emma Farge – Reuters – Mon, October 3, 2022
A United Nations agency warned on Monday of the risk of a monetary policy-induced global recession that would have especially serious consequences for developing countries and called for a new strategy.
“Excessive monetary tightening could usher in a period of stagnation and economic instability” for some countries, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a statement released alongside its annual report.
“Any belief that they (central banks) will be able to bring down prices by relying on higher interest rates without generating a recession is, the report suggests, an imprudent gamble,” it said.
The report said that higher interest rates, including hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, would have a more severe impact on emerging economies, which already have high levels of private and public debt. The report, entitled “Development prospects in a fractured world”, also warned of a potential debt crisis in the developing world.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/un-agency-warns-recession-linked-150508074.html
Stock Markets Will Drop Another 40% As A Severe Stagflationary Debt Crisis Hits An Overleveraged Global Economy
By Nouriel Roubini – Oct. 3, 2022
On the pompom note for my portfolio I’d say that was an interesting day for kodiak. Selloff initially on what I thought was good news to a new 52 week low that got my attention and while I contemplated buying more it turned and had a nice pop. Good day for someone who trades short term rather than sit idly on their hands with cash depreciating before their eyes.
Yeah I saw that in Kodiak, on the back of what appeared to be good news. I’ve been out of my position in it for a while because copper stocks, especially most of the developers and explorers have been out favor, and KDK was a portfolio dog of mine I took as as a tax loss. I still like their team, project, and drill targets, and will likely get back into the position down the road.. maybe even in the near term.
There have been no pom-poms needed in either Kodiak or junior copper stocks though for sure. This to shall pass though, and eventually the red metal will be the flavor of the day again.
This one is for you E$x, Devil’s Advocates Are Investors’ Best Friend! DT
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct22/devils-advocates10-22.html
Thanks DT. Yes good article. We often tell our daily show guests that we are going to take the devil’s advocate role in the interview and push back on an idea or narrative or technical point, to see how it crystalizes their thinking or refines their point in a response.
Personally I regularly seek out dissenting opinions or research on macroeconomic themes, technical analysis, and with companies I’m invested in, so as not to get caught in the traps of confirmation bias or herd think.
When I go over to ceo.ca I’m usually looking for dissenting opinions on stocks I like, to see what red flags or warts I may have overlooked. However, that should be taken with a grain of salt, as many critiques are emotional reactions to them losing money and simply pointing the finger of blame at management, even when it is not their fault. Few though ever point the finger in the mirror at their own poor trading or misplaced assumptions.
Of course, as I’ve stated repeatedly, I’ve got little time or patience for uninformed bashing or trolling that is not well-reasoned, not using data, and doesn’t have some fundamental, technical, or quantitative thesis or rationale.
People’s hunches or emotional responses are of little value in navigating the markets… so their “buy. buy buy – to the moon” calls or “sell, sell, sell run for the hills” calls are just noise and garbage posts if they are not accompanied by some rational thought or data supporting their reasoning.
Ray Dalio……………. going bye bye……….. retirement …….
Just in case anyone missed it………..
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_100422.html
For a look at the weekly chart, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold’s mighty rally from the $1610 buy zone has been so powerful that $1675 is becoming support again too!
Note the fabulous inverse H&S pattern on the Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. This is a very positive chart, but certainly not something that could be called the greatest chart in the history of markets.
All gold bugs should probably own at least a token position in silver bullion too. The sky is the limit for silver bugs and for those investors who bought silver into my gold $1610 buy zone, there’s not much to do here… except to shout, “Hi ho, hi ho, it’s up the chart I go!”
For a look at the silver miners, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this SIL chart. A run to $31-$32 looks to be the play for October.
Posted an article from 321……….. worth a read………. A Shocking Gold Price Rally
Might pop up later………….
OOTB – Thanks for the heads up on that article from Bob M’s site.
IMHO silver is heading for the 50dma on the weekly and the 200dma on the daily at $22 and holding up above $20.
Good point Dan on Silver blast up to (and today through) the 200 week MA at $20.82 today on your chart, as it is up at $21.17 currently, and was even higher just an hour ago.
USD should head back to the middle Bollinger dotted line IMHO.
Interesting. So maybe a pullback in the USD down to just over 107 then? That would be a nice tailwind for the resource sector for sure.
Most still believe that medium-term that the dollar is still in an uptrend though. Would you anticipate a rally up to new highs above 114 after that then? Or do you think the USD has already topped out here?
So far 114 is a yes, maybe that will be when the PMs breakaway from the dollar. BTW, I am totally an amateur but don’t mind throwing it out there sometimes, haha…
Big Ridge left for dead at a 52 week low today.
The weekly slow stochastics are almost off the chart to the down side.
Anyone has idea why Barrick has become such an uninteresting stock?
I’ve always found the Majors like Barrick to be uninteresting.
I don’t have an answer but it should be much more interesting by next week if it holds up for the rest of this week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p11379662774&a=1248420369
NEM too. The senior golds haven’t been so appealing in decades if you like strong balance sheets and healthy payouts that are sure to go higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=8&mn=11&dy=0&id=t0943593425c&a=1087879477&r=1664913618562&cmd=print
Quarterly NEM priced in gold looks very appealing:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=40&mn=11&dy=0&id=t1923961820c&a=1130592246&r=1664914729449&cmd=print
Weekly NEM priced in gold is about as good as it gets based on risk/reward:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM%3AGLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61928500409&a=1242271352
Nice Matthew! My position in AEM is doing great. Hopefully there will be some action in Barrick . I bought today in a long long time.
Congrats on AEM! It’s doing twice as well NEM and hasn’t even confirmed its big double bottom yet! And I have no doubts that it will…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54075463863&a=977703006
PMs may be swing topping.
I added a few to GR Silver and Nine Mile but I don’t trust end of day yet. I am still getting the “some up..some down thing” and would rather see most all up before I think someone isn’t mucking things up still. Anyway, Up is better than down.
Gungnir just did a 22% pop and the answer is: I don’t know why.
Dolly Varden up 20% out of blue. Could be a Schwab error….
Lion One showing life to +11%
Go Metals joined in at the end and went up to +16%. This was more like a race horse finish day, so things are looking up. I think close was my high of day. So been looking for that and looking forward to more.
Hi Lakedweller2. You were correct that DV Dolly Varden was up about 20% today… not an error.
Fury is doing a cross trade on a big chunk of their shares (which is the right way for larger stakeholders to exit their position), and they have been doing great with exploration lately, with many more drill assays still to release from Torbrit, Wolf, and Homestake.
Monthly gaps in xau and many miners need to be corrected in order to have a proper lift off imo. I think one last dip down is realistic before the bigger move up.
Brixton could retest .15 let’s see what happens.