Robert Sinn – Goldfinger – Beaver Creek Conference Recap, Technical And Macro Analysis For Precious Metals
Robert Sinn, aka Goldfinger, editor of Energy & Gold, joins us to share a recap of the Beaver Creek mining conference, his technical outlook on the precious metals sector, and some macroeconomic trends that could be headwinds or tailwinds moving forward. One of the key themes lately, that was evident at meetings from Beaver Creek, was that there is a clear gulf developing between quality companies that are cashed up to keep working, and those companies that will struggle to finance their operations moving forward. Robert also highlighted two recent financings done in the gold developers that occurred near their share price lows for both Skeena (SKE) and Lion One (LIO), demonstrating how tough it has been to raise capital in this low precious metals sector sentiment.
Next we shifted over to reviewing the key support and resistance technical levels, noting that a close in gold above $1700 this week, and more importantly a close above $1720 next week for the monthly and quarterly close would be a step in the right direction to get things turned around. We also noted the key support at $1670-$1680 that gold has been hovering around the last 2 weeks, and that if it fails, there isn’t good support again until $1625. With Silver, it has been more encouraging lately, as it diverged from gold and rallied higher the last 2 weeks, but ultimately it needs to see a monthly close next week above $20 to keep that momentum going.
We wrap up with the macroeconomic data points around the Fed, the US Dollar, and looking at the interest rates yield curve to assess what expectations the market is signaling.
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Finally, someone here finally gets it. Been saying this for months and all the goldbugs here can do is wet their pants every predictable dip PMs have taken.
That is a great point, Paul
Paul, When stock profits vanish as they are now doing, new installment buyers for goods will be hard to find. Men and women will be wondering how they can meet the next payment on their debt burden. Add a huge increase in The US dollar and what’s left of America’s productive industrial sector will kill their export market. Factories will start shutting down because they will be unprofitable until the buying power returns. Americans think they can ride this downturn out, they will lose their Reserve currency status and their debt will bring on a Depression. A strong American dollar is the worst thing that can happen to your country. America is already hollowed out it will become a basket case with the Crash that is already happening. Countries need to be able to trade, no other country will be able to afford America’s artificially high priced goods. There is no way out of this disaster except through Deflationary implosion. America couldn’t stay immune from the rest of The World in The 1930’s when they were a creditor nation, now they have nothing to fall back on but debt. DT
America is sleep walking it’s way into financial disaster, this implosion will be a much greater disaster than Covid, that completely fooled the masses into thinking the vaccine would prevent a flu that mutated. Joe public doesn’t have a clue about financial literacy. Today The Dow fell another 522 points, yesterday 313, it keeps adding up. DT
I have been hearing about when stocks crash gold will soar, yeah after all miners crash with it, so those holding long term waiting for those lotto tickets to pay off will be down big already, it’s been 2 years we been hearing same old, I do believe sometime in future gold and miners will pay off but haven’t anyone lear these are penny stocks, only payoff in bull mkt, but it’s been over 2 years since they made their run, only ones will be those that are producing, developer’s and exploration will need to keep raising money to keep going, stocks dilution.
If your trying to protect your wealth then you should be holding 10-20 pct in physical not high risk miners. They had their run now correcting over 2 years and still have couple more to go.
Indeed Paul, same old, same old for past couple of years.
The coins have a premium of $8 over silver spot… why?
I didn’t word that right, I should have said; “Why is there an $8 premium on the coins? What does that say about the ‘spot’ price?”
It’s not probable that the mining stocks still have several more years to correct based on the technicals from the weekly or monthly or quarterly charts, or the macro backdrop. The overall trend in the PM sector has been down for two years, with the clear caveat that there have been several different periods for 1-3 months where the miners and metals had nice bounces for tradable rallies. It hasn’t been a straight down move by any stretch, and we had rallies last year and this year where many mining stocks were up in double digits for those that deployed their cash at oversold levels, and then trimmed them back after strong rallies got too overbought on the daily charts.
At this point after the last 2 years, most of the corrective move in the PMs has already played through, and even if we get that flash crash below $1675 down to low $1600s or the $1500s, that would likely be the last capitulation move, and happen in a relatively short amount of time (2-3 months).
In addition to the bear case, there is also the bullish case, where the risk to the upside if $1675 does hold and rally and if the recent levels in the low $17s that Silver hit were it bottoming before the yellow metal. In that event, selling the miners down here to go into cash would be a poor choice, as those shorting Silver in the $18s and $17s just found out the hard way when there was a short-covering rally sending it up into the mid $19s in a sudden rip higher. When we start seeing moves like that in the mining stocks during the next rally, many will be on the sidelines (like always) watching the easy money be made, and then finally get into position once things go up 50% 100% 200%+ It takes all kinds to make a market…
I like the beaten down royalties. Nothing wrong with buying cheap.
Agreed Jetty. I’ve been beefing up some of my royalties positions as they’ve corrected down over the last few months, and see their medium-term and longer-term value propositions as far less risky than the individual mining stocks. I like a mixture of them in my portfolio as more slow and steady climbers over the longer time periods, with diversified portfolios of assets, as well as built in production and exploration growth from the operating partner companies they hold royalties on.
Now, admittedly the royalty stocks won’t go up as much as individual miners on the big sector runs for some of those same reasons, but they are a slightly more conservative way to play the PM sector. Personally, I’m too risk adverse to put all my funds allocated for investing in the PMs into solely speculative drill plays, or lifeless developers waiting for a white knight to buy out their project or company. I have some explorers and developers for sure, and a few with larger weights, but in general I’m more heavily weighted to a number of small and mid-tier producers and royalty companies for the larger positions in my porfolio.
If they keep raising rates they will blow out the banks. They will blow out the Country before the banks. Their continuance of insufficient raises will require false data until a reset that probably will be insufficient also. (They then will proclaim no one saw it coming and hit gold in the phony paper market that is also going to fail and new markets rise in the East).
The Fed is just unsuccessfully trying to break inflation and are willing to break the economy. The economy is already broken but it doesn’t show up in inflation data because there are supply issues unlike anything in my lifetime.
I am fairly sure they will stop and maybe lower rates after the election. The data should be in by then or the population may revolt.
Jay Martin interviews Mark O’Dea (CEO) and Terry Smith (COO) of Pure Gold. They cover all the relevant information, well worth the listening time. DT
DT – Thanks for posting that Pure Gold interview.
Folks, we all saw this coming. Doc said the candy store is open. I have core JR positions, and also a healthy dose of UVXY.
So let the market crash, for once.
“They bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say, let em’ crash.”
– Airplane
day /GC…..If this 3 Drive pattern works tomorrow,Friday…then that should end the weekly correction cycle…If not then the final low is farther out into November…imho…I will be looking to go long miners over the next 3 days…It will be volatile and bumpy…..
Contrary to what many people have been saying lately the bottoming process in the miners has already happened and is happening before are eyes. Technically speaking hui/xau/crb all look to me in a w formation in the longer charts.. That is 100% bullish for get waiting to spring of next year that only indicates we’re the breakout may come but the bottom is here.
CRB contrary again to some pundints is putting in a bottom here from what I see. October/November should be friendly
I also think Brixton had a date next week with 23/24 in short order.
There is NO technical thesis with gold bugs here, except the miners have gone down so low and for so long they are a buy. The same can be said with most anything.
If you don’t do it now you’ll be left behind when the rally starts. And it comes from those who at least claim ongoing accumulation of lows with their limited cash to prove their point/ Which have been halved at a minimum for the seniors and far worse for the penny dregs most buy here. It would take a rocket shot to recover. Akin to buying a lottery ticket.
The price action will tell the tale. There will be another pop up with gold as it has held up remarkably considering the dollar has gone ballistic and any setback will provide the fuel. If the producers / explorers etc finally show leverage rather than lag from this oversold, then those with cash are in a great position to wade in. Likely for a good time and not a long time.
Jon syl, that is a ridiculous claim that contributors on this site have no technical thesis. You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own erroneous facts.
First of all, to state what should be obvious, you are commenting on a blog where Goldfinger laid out specific technical support and resistance levels to watch, that I also higlighted in the written description up above. That is enough to dispute your claim right out of the gate, but maybe you don’t listen to the actual interviews and you only come here to bloviate.
The prior interview we had with Jordan Roy-Byrne yesterday also was completely focused on his technical thesis, where we asked for his technical support and resistance levels for this week, and for the coming monthly/quarterly close next week. Again claiming there isn’t a technical thesis being shared on this site is absolute poppycock.
Dave Erfle regularly provides technical levels to watch in interviews, as does Steve Penny along with a half dozen of his charts. We’ll be hearing from them both this Friday (again), and getting their technical outlooks, and both Cory and I interject our own technical observations into all these discussions. Yet you make the silly claim there is no technical thesis here.
We have Doc Postma on to wrap up each month with us and provide his big picture technical outlook using the monthly charts, and he specifically mentions what technical indicators he is watching (like Bollinger Bands, MACD, ADX, Slow Stochastics, etc…) to signal when he would be interesting in going long or going short precious metals, energy stocks, or the general equity markets. But apparently that is not a technical thesis in your esteemed observation?
When I was personally adding to about 30 mining positions in the first and second weeks of July, I explained my technical thesis very clearly, and posted gold charts and the technical support levels I was watching in GDX and GDXJ. In addition I posted and commented on very telling charts from the BPGDM showing that the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index had hit the very low reading of 13 for a few weeks, and then it dropped to 10. I mentioned in a few different post that that it was an ideal spot for a turn — and it was, because we then proceeded to see a rally from mid July through mid August in many mid-tier gold and silver producers. That is called having a technical thesis, and acting on it, but maybe you either have reading or comprehension problems.
Matthew has posted dozens of charts every week, as has BDC, with specific technical comments accompanying them in a number of markets, showing where potential turns in direction could happen in the metals, miners, commodities, and currencies. Yet your ridiculous claim is that there is no technical thesis here. Are you blind or just being purposely ignorant of what people here post?
Glenfidish just left and regularly leaves technical comments, as does Dan (calgary), Charles, and Greenspanconscious. There are others that come on to provide their technical thesis as well, but those were just a few contributors that come to mind.
It is painfully obvious that you only come here to gaslight this site, are oblivious to (or willfully ignorant of) the information being shared, and then you come on and make blatantly false claims — like the whopper of a falsehood above that there is no technical thesis being shared on this site.
If you don’t listen to the interviews where we share technical insights (like the one above on this very blog you’re commenting on), and ignore all the technical data and charts other contributors on the blog share week after week, and seem to only come on here to whine, bellyache, and poke at investors here, then why do you even come here? Maybe you’d be happier posting on some other website or some other topic. Just a thought…
Ex…………. do not chase away the customers……….. some bashing never hurts….. makes you stronger………. 🙂
Time will tell, ……. just like covid hoax…… do not see those jokers around anymore… 🙂
I don’t consider jon syl a customer, as those are our site sponsors, and he is one listener out of 20,000 but does nothing but repeatedly stir up issues on the blog and complain. I can’t think of any useful information he shared with investors, which is simply my opinion. Having a dissenting view is fine, if well reasoned (which his was not), but to come on and spread outright untruths is unacceptable.
For him to claim that this show and the contributors on this site don’t have a technical thesis, when it is cram-packed with clear data to the contrary, including the very editorial with Goldfinger above, is complete BS.
You are correct though OOTB, that most of the site hecklers eventually leave over time, and good riddance. Remember “crazy Mark” or “Trader Jake” “Tweety/Farmer” “Spanky” etc… Bu-bye… 😉
ah yes…………. Tweety…….. lol
Ex, quite the condemnation.
No matter how prolific, hopeful or for that matter, well intended your noted contributors are with their technicals, the end result for more than the past year, the gold sector trend has been down and in spades while gold has largely done little, down around 6% or so.
Joe with his Hail Mary calls, has proven to be far closer to identified the trend. Yet happily ridiculed by the group think group. So what? Perhaps his dart board calls have equivalent effect.
And why would I not choose to ignore the wisdom of those technicals and express why. Which as with Joe is condemned as belligerent.
Give me a break with the lecture.
I will always condemn outright lies jon syl, and your comments were not about how accurate people’s specific technical calls were, and you ignored the dozens and dozens of times their technical calls in the PMs, in general markets, in currencies etc… were spot on.
You stated emphatically there there was NO technical thesis and people were just perpetually buying lower. That is a falsehood and mischaracterization and was called out with facts and data and plenty of examples to dismantle your silly comments.
As for Joe’s comments they actually fit the bill of the detracting comments you made, where he actually has no thesis, so it is hilariously ironic that you’d back up his trolling BS with no substance.
Again, maybe you’d be happier visiting some other site and creating issues on their blogs.
Right on, jon syl is a lying sack of shit with the character to match.
It would appear I do not follow technical theory very much but then again don’t follow Fundamentals either.
I grew up in the days before computer programs and fundamentals were extremely important. In those days you paid money to get monthly reports that showed trends. Try that today. Only the brokerage firms could afford the daily or weekly reports.
My glitch is that Insiders (wall Street, hedge funds, central bankers and yes, even politicians) can affect markets day to day activity and therefore charts with computer programs as they have access to the markets directly and/or quicker than we can. Therefore I often act contrary to the charts just because I feel like it is the right time due to news or other circumstances that an algo may not be programmed for like a bunch of shorts caught short or the Reddick crowd throwing nonsensical money at something.
However, I hang out at Korelin because it is full of technical traders that do the smart thing way more often than I do and get it right more than I do because they share their information and are more savvy as a result when getting all the additional input. I bounce stuff off Matthew and Ex all the time and after being shown the factors I should or have considered are maybe incomplete or not thought out, I check into my mistake and fix it. I have two choices sometimes: get my feelings hurt or learn from it. I choose to learn and move along because they as well as maybe even Joe have opinions that are important. However, the technical guys support their opinions and have facts that they readily share. Way different than assertions…assertions without facts are worthless.
So the bottomline, I thank all those that provide factually supported information from valid sources or proven methods.
Thanks for sharing your insights, the companies you trade and follow in the sector, key sector news, and for your feedback and contribution Lakedweller2. You are a consistent high-value poster here, and it is appreciated.
I also don’t see the US dollar going above 112 on this run before a big correction let’s see what next week brings
It is amazing how the US Dollar has continued surging higher and higher an is currently at 112.81 getting close to pushing a 113 print. Relentless, and brutal for commodities. Now Silver is back under $19, Gold is under the key $1673-$1675 support down around $1651, and Oil is below $80 again near $78.60.
Wild times in the commodities sector.
Gold holding the September low,
as the Dollar escalates, is bullish.
Regarding technical analysis, an old chestnut:
“Never short railroad tracks!”
(Sideways lows.)
+1 BDC. Good one.
Also, thank you for being a regular contributor of technical analysis on this site almost daily. While some posters may be oblivious to the solid TA work submitted here daily, your efforts are not lost on many of us that are paying attention.
Thank you, Shad. Much appreciated! My TA stuff is pretty good, so now I’m brushing up on MA (mental analysis) with “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas, which folks here should look into, even position traders and investors.
Being totally out of PMs now may be a greater risk than otherwise. Euro weakness could be mirrored exponentially by the Dollar in the (near?) future. At that point permanent breaks – gaps never to be filled – would shock the world, sans many here at KER.
BDC – Good points, technical ruminations, and even a book recommendation to boot. Much appreciated.
USERX (the oldest gold miners mutual fund):
The 600 week (roughly 12 YEAR) moving average was a high level resistance in 2016 but now it’s a low level support along with the well-established channel support that has developed since:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7296056937c&a=1206549600&r=1663870867943&cmd=print
Guys like jon syl and Joe can/should be dismissed if they don’t understand why the current (July to present) situation is very different than the previous lows of the last 18 months. Yes there could very well be another smash in the miners until gold moves up sufficiently away from the 200 week MA but only the incompetent think this is the “same old” situation.
Normal link for subs:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05946252103&a=1206549600
Yes Matthew, there very well could be another smash with the gold miners, unless of gold gold moves up by some significant measure. We are in violent agreement. I’m sure even Joe would agree with that. How about you Doc.
In the meantime, go Loonie go. Gotta be a low someplace in here.
No, not by some “significant measure” that’s your dishonesty at work. “Significant” and “sufficient” are not synonyms.
ok, let it be ‘sufficient’. I’ll let you determine how significant that has to be in order for it to be sufficient.
How’s that.
That’s sufficient.
Ex, obviously there were pop up rallies, as there are with any market downtrend. I bought and sold and then rebought myself.
Whatever spin you choose to use, the trend for nearly two years has been down, and with considerable
vigor for gold sector equities. With few contributor exceptions, largely condemned, the technically astute have been forever hopeful but wrong.
Oh yes, then the liar and all. How profound as with Matthew. Probably in need of another public service announcement as with Doc.
This site doesn’t make me unhappy. Actually it’s quite revealing and at times entertaining. However if you want to ban me, go ahead. It will make the group thinkers happier to do their own thing.
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No PSA is necessary with you since you lack even slightest shred of credibility to begin with.
jon syl – Those pop up rallies that you so casually dismiss lasted for months, and provided savvy investors paying attention double-digit gains (better than most market participants will make all year).
Importantly, they were also well telegraphed in the technical thesis that you claimed erroneously doesn’t exist on this site.
Your whole response misses the point entirely. It has absolutely nothing to do with our show guests or blog contributors being “well-intentioned,” as there are plenty of well-intentioned people that are perpetually wrong or lose money. It is rather that some had a technical or fundamental thesis, that was laid out in advance or as it was developing, that was bang on correct and you act like that never happened, which is untrue. It is also true that some had a thesis that was totally incorrect… like all technicians or fundamentalists or quantitative analysts experience. Everyone… all traders…. have a mixed record of wins and losses.
The point is that at least some of the technicians we have brought on the show, or people here on this blog, stick their neck out and put a well-reasoned thesis out there. They are the contributors here. Playing armchair quarterback after the game is over and looking back at only where people were wrong, and only lasered in on 1 timeframe (the last 2 years), negates all the fantastic tradeable rallies that happened over shorter time frames within that period, all the other years many have been posting here where calls were nailed in gold, silver, miners, uranium, lithium, copper, US dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro, US general equities, Bitcoin, tech stocks, etc…. To ignore all of that in lieu of shaping one single narrative about one specific timeframe is not helping anyone, especially when you do it by insulting all the hard work and research others submitted, and ignoring all their good calls.
It is the erroneous claims about the site and the untrue statements that are the issue here and that I set the record straight on. As far as we are concerned, again, it is fine for people to hold whatever opinions they want to hold, and express themselves, but when you cross over into untruths and bold erroneous claims about this site, our guest, or our contributors, then that is not going to be stood for.
As for banning you (you always post as if you are the martyr and victim), I have no interest in that and there hasn’t been anyone banned from the site in many years… they left voluntarily when others got sick of their cow dung comments and when people just started ignoring their comments. I’d like to ignore your comments, but you repeatedly cause issues on the blog, or name drop others, including me, which is the typical behavior of a troll or someone gaslighting a message board.
My sincere desire, is that you’ll actually contribute to the blog if you must persist in posting here, and quit with the whining and bellyaching, quit with the finger pointing, and martyr role you see yourself in, and instead start actually offering something of substance for investors here.
How about offering either your own technical analysis and charts, or fundamental analysis and data points, without taking swipes at posters or our show in almost every post? That would be a good start.
Watching this gap on Agnico. I have a limit order for $40.23. Interesting to see how this situation resolves
New position – SLVTF – Silver Tiger 12K @ $2.00
Correction: 12K @ $.2000
Nice Marty. Welcome to the Silver Tiger club… 🙂
It’s my second largest weighting in a Silver explorer only second to Vizsla Silver.
Many companies claim (or at least try to claim) that they are the next Silvecrest, but I see only 2 companies that are continuing to put out the repeated stellar drill results like Silvercrest has done – VZLA and SLVR.
Ever Upward!
TLT looked ready for a bounce yesterday but it broke lower instead…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p64925468563&a=1250981903
Down again today.
Looks to me next support is 1550 then 1500.
1500 breaks and were down to 1300.
I wonder if this biggest crash in history we are supposed to get will take gold below that.
Forget about gold and miners for few months, fed will continue to raise rates and dollar will get stronger especially with global debt crisis other countries currency are weak and many will invest in the dollar.