Weekend Show – Featuring Jess Felder and Doc – Economic Comments Along With Market Forecasts Including Metals and Currencies
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. For all our US and Canadian listeners we hope you have a great long weekend! Odds are market action is going to pick up next week after the long weekend but that in no way means the bear market is over.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the show with a focus on big picture economic factors that he thinks will start to drive markets in the near term. This ties into Fed policy changes that could come as soon as Q3 earnings start rolling out. Click here to learn more about the Felder Report.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc wraps up the show by sharing his longer term outlook for GDX and a couple major miners, gold, silver, oil, the US Dollar and bonds. We have doc outline what technical indicators and certain moving averages he is watching on the monthly charts so all you long term investors can follow along.
As a reminder Josef Schachter’s conference is coming up on October 22nd in Calgary Alberta. This is a great opportunity to listen to a wide rage of Canadian energy companies as well as get your questions answered. I attended the conference before the pandemic and it was a fantastic way to build you investing knowledge for the energy sector.
Josef is offering a draw for 2 free tickets for all of you if you email him the following…
- Email – info@schachterenergyreport.com
- Subject Line – KE Report Draw
- Include your first and last name.
- Click here for more information on the conference.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Granite Creek Copper – Strategy Behind The Acquisition Of The Star Copper – Nickel – Platinum Project
- Snowline Gold – Valley Zone Drill Results Including 282.9 Meters Of 2.3g/t Gold, Drilling Starting At Gracie and More Information On The Avalanche Creek Target
- Forum Energy Metals – A Focus On The 4 Primary Uranium Projects
- TraceSafe – Smart Connective Technology To Assist Companies With Integrating Carbon Credits
The ‘Massive Momentum Structure’ In The Stock Market Is Breaking Down
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – August 31, 2022
“A little over a year ago, I had the pleasure of interviewing Michael Oliver in person at his home in Colorado (listen to that interview here). While he shared a great deal about his unique methods, the main focus of our discussion was the “massive momentum structure” that had been building for years in the stock market, specifically in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Below is an updated version of that chart which plots the index on a monthly timeframe along with another plot of the index relative to its 36-month moving average. It is this second chart, which isolates the price momentum of the index, that has formed a long-term structure of some significance.”
‘Bear Markets Tend To Be Back-End Loaded’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – September 3, 2022
Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Turn Signal? : Topped At 110 Even!
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/07/dollar-index-summer-2022.html
Take a look at the Weekly and Monthly charts of AEM; FNV; GOLD; NEM; RGLD and WPM where the action in these names tells the Big Picture story.
Some longer-term price objectives.
SPX. 3400
NDQ. 9750
DJIA. 29,500
$USD/ DXY. 120
Sven Henrich: A Restrictive Fed Has Changed Everything For The Markets
Wealthion – (09/01/2022)
“To get the best sense of exactly what the technicals are telling us right now, we’re fortunate to welcome Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader back on the program to discuss both his latest macro and market outlooks.”
Part 2: Sven Henrich – No Bull Case Left For Markets Now That A Fed Pivot Isn’t Happening Soon
Wealthion – (09/02/2022)
“Thanks for joining us for Part 2 of our interview with technical analyst Sven Henrich. Sven sees a much more volatile future ahead for the markets & explains how he plans to trade them.”
“If you haven’t yet watched Part 1 of this discussion with Sven, he details out why both the macro fundamentals and the market technicals suggest a downward resumption of the bear market to new lows.”
Thomas shared a very interesting article from Jonathan Mergott recently, that was quite bearish on the Precious Metals and he outlines that we may be ready for a period very similar to the extreme washout that occurred back in 2013, and a further capitulation move down in the metals and mining stocks. It is one of the better bear cases for continued weakness in the PMs that I’ve read in a while, provides his thesis and the supporting data, and is at least worth the read and consideration to mull over.
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Large Spec Net Shorts Does NOT Mean We’re at THE Bottom
Jonathan Mergott – Alchemy Financial – September 1, 2022
https://alchemyfinancials.blogspot.com/2022/09/large-spec-net-shorts-does-not-mean.html
In that article linked above from Jonathan Mergott, he pokes holes in a lot of the common tropes regarding the COT commercials versus large speculators; as far as their reasons for being short or long, which is in contrast to the typical narratives we hear regarding how that will relate to a bottom or the potential of a short squeeze. He also goes after those that perpetually think one day JP Morgan will get their short positions squeezed in some epic move higher, and I’d have to agree with him that is a stale narrative and far more unlikely than some believe, because it is simply their hedge against long positions.
As for whether we are near that 2013 moment where everyone prematurely thinks the worst is in after a 50% corrective move, and then we see another 50% lower in short order is possible, is concerning, but also remains to be seen.
We had a few different conversations this week asking guests like Brien, Jordan, Craig, Doc, and Steve if we were seeing that same kind of pattern play out again, and also had a few chats with folks off-mic about that potential scenario of break down below $1675 gold and what that could do to the sector and to the mining stocks. It is a legitimate concern, especially if paired with a further corrective move down in the general markets and cryptos and other sectors in a “sell everything” type of environment.
For me personally, it is concerning to have seen Silver break down below $21.41 support, and dive down to $18.01, only to bounce up above $20, and then roll over and dive down below $18 in the mid $17’s over the last week or two. If Gold was to break down through $1675, then we could see something similar play out in the yellow metal and related gold miners, so that is a big going concern.
This is something I’ve been mulling over for a while in response to a number of technicians projections, macro factors piling up, and sentiment in most thought leaders or companies we talk with still being “cautiously optimistic” about metals prices heading higher moving into the fall and winter. If we do see a 2013 style waterfall decline, then sentiment could still move much lower, along with stock prices.
Over the last few months, I’ve pivoted more funds out of the riskier explorers and stagnant developers, and beefed up my positions in growth-oriented PM producers and the quality mid-tier royalty companies, as to limit downside should the markets move against us.
If we see a further bump higher in September in the mining stocks, then I may take out an inverse PM mining stock ETF hedge against my long positions, with the both the technical set up and the macroeconomic backdrop being at such a tenuous place. Again, his bearish points outlined are definitely some food for thought, on taking a slightly more defensive posture moving into the next few months, and even heading into next year.
Just listened to the interview with Doc
He also mentioned 2011-2013 and said that Gold has more strength this time and wouldn’t drop another 50% like 2013
On the other side Doc sees Newmont go down to $30 – $35
At $30 Newmont‘s dividend would be 7.3%
Both, Barrick and Newmont already have a dividend above 5%
I think PM miners are already very cheap.
Yeah, we talked to a few guests this week about the potential of what we just saw from 2020 – 2022, on the chart, being eerily similar to the setup we saw from 2011 – 2013, so the question Cory posed to a few people like Jordan Roy-Bryne, Craig Hemke, Steve Penny, and Doc Postma was if we’d see that next washout leg lower — which was Jonathan Mergott’s position in that article you had posted earlier in the week (also linked above).
Jordan & Steve, in addition to Doc, also believed that the set up is different this time, and that the underlying strength in the PMs is different than in 2013, and gold is not nearly as widely held as it was back in 2011-2013, and despite the recent move above $2000 in both August of 2020 and March of 2022, there was nothing like the mania that we all saw back in 2009-2011, so it is a different backdrop for gold here compared to 2013. Craig admitted he didn’t know which way things were going to go and actually was noting the caution investors should have in response to the similar technical setup, which was meaningful coming from someone that is a more clear gold bull.
As for Doc’s comments, I really liked that he pointed out that many chart indicators and overlays have held up much better in this bearish consolidation, and not dipped down to extremes like they did in the 2011-2013 period leading up to the big and sudden waterfall declines. That is using data versus opinions, and added more substance to the position that we will see further weakness, but not the extreme action we saw in mid 2013.
We also ran the idea by Jeffrey Christian, and he is no gold bull, and still maintained that while there could be a bit more weakness this year, that the CPM group has noted that since 2019 that gold has climbed each year on an annual average price, with 2021 being the highest annual average price on record, which is still quite bullish and shows underlying strength. This was a point Jonathan Mergott failed to address or make note of in his analysis of the last 15 months, and a key difference in the set up now compared to a decade ago.
We’ll see how it all plays out over the balance of the year, but most of these guys expect that whatever weakness we see when gold breaks $1675 will be more muted and brief down in the low $1600’s. Personally, I don’t like the chart damage that will coincide with a break below that strong $1675 support, or the sector sentiment it would create, and it would mean we’d seen a new lower low in Gold. As Steve Penny pointed out on Friday’s interview, if $1675 was to break it would be the equivalent of when we lost $21.41 in Silver, which was followed by the recent smash down we’ve seen down into the mid $17’s.
That is what worries me about people shrugging off the break of $1675. The most bearish case we’ve heard was from Rick Bensignor, where he stated that if $1675 support fails in Gold, that it then sets up a move down to the $1450 level in Gold (which would be a retest of the pandemic spike low). While that is a bit overly bearish, Rick is a sharp guy, an accurate technical and quantitative trader, and doesn’t make comments like that for shock value.
That is a scary projection from Rick, but again, Gold hasn’t even broken down through $1675 yet, as so many expect it will, so we’ll just have to see what happens when/if that level is tested again. I asked a few of those guys if there was any scenario where the yellow metal doesn’t need to break down and may have already bottomed at that $1673 level back in March of 2021 (because we have not seen a break below that level for a year and half now), and technically the retests have all been slightly higher levels of pricing, albeit only by a few dollars ($1673, $1674, $1675, $1678). The only 3 people that felt gold could escape testing the $1675 and breaking lower were Dave Erfle and Craig Hemke, where they conceded it could be a geopolitical event that could reverse the trend suddenly, and then Steve Penny felt that the $1675 level was made stronger each test of it, and that the level had a higher probability of holding for that technical reason.
You said that Rick is overly bearish and you might be right but his 1450 gold target is not technically “overly” bearish if gold’s March 2021 low is smashed. In that event a case could be made for 1375 but either target would be objectively implied by the technical picture. I happen to think that even such a break to new lows would not result in such a move but that’s for reasons beyond the strictly technical implications of the price action. My point is that if Rick is dispassionately basing his 1450 on the price chart, purposely keeping his senses/feelings/desires/biases out of it, there’s nothing overly bearish about his target.
Now if he’s confident about that target even before gold has broken down then I’d say he might be a bit overly bearish. It’s generally not a good idea to assume that any breakout is a done deal before it happens.
As I stated two days ago, angled support is often much more important than horizontal support and I bet that is the case now with gold. Specifically, we have the 200 week EMA and 200 week SMA. The former was tested in July and latter will be tested soon if it’s going to be tested at all. Gold’s price low in March 2021 was a whopping $200 above the 200 wSMA but now it is a dollar below it. Gold spent months below that MA in 2018 but a breach of it now is very unlikely to be similar since 2018 was very different in many obvious and not so obvious ways. Even if gold convincingly breaks both its 2021 low and that MA I doubt that it would fall even $100 since smart money would be focused on buying aggressively into the herd’s triggered stops and new selling. The sooner the better if gold is going to break down because sentiment supports any break being brief, a bear trap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86413329660
Pivot supports (standard, Fibonacci, Demark) for gold are at 1681, 1645, 1607 and 1533. The first standard and Fibonacci supports were tested in July…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03429311095&a=1243911222
Some good points Matthew, on the angular support levels versus horizontal support levels. I probably shouldn’t have used the words “overly bearish” with Rick’s analysis, as I have a lot of respect for his technical analysis and it is that major horizontal support from the pandemic crash lows.
As you mentioned though, there are a number of pivot points, Fib levels, and moving averages that could offer support between $1673 and $1450. It just seemed a bit extreme at first when I heard him focus immediately on $1450 if $1673 was pierced, as there are a number of stops along the way that could offer support preventing it from needing to go down that low.
He also stated if $25 fell in GDX that it set up a move down to $16. Again there are other support levels in $GDX between $25 and $16, that could offer support. Still those were some sobering comnents from Rick that really caught my attention.
Thanks for sharing the other levels you did with us above for consideration.
I don’t rule out gold doing something similar to what palladium did between 2014-2016. Maybe test the rising 600 WMA once again before ripping much much higher.
That MA is roughly equivalent to the 12 year MA and was touched in 2015 and 2016 and thoroughly broken in 2018 so it would likely be a very bearish development if it hits it again anytime soon. Gold is nothing like any industrial commodity including palladium or platinum and therefore moves very differently. It is worth 40 times more CRB today than it was 50 years ago because it is sound money.
Gold’s stock-to-flow is typically 60 to 70 while palladium’s is usually under 1. Palladium’s “moneyness” is therefore zilch.
Not surprisingly palladium’s bid-ask spread is currently $23 while gold’s is 20 cents.
Wall Street Silver @WallStreetSilv – 7:13 AM · Sep 2, 2022 · Twitter Web App
“That’s why we don’t see Putin on the news: His speeches are revealing too much about EU and USA monetary policies.”
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382
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The points he made in the speech about the reckless new money creation in the US and Europe leading to the persistently high inflation that we see now are actually spot on, despite who the messenger is.
Ex – Awhile back I mentioned ‘non-linear’ thinking. Specifically, imagine a Dollar break (gap) of 30% or more. Until that happening you could have literally taken closure of every significant Dollar Index gap “to the bank”. Of course, it hasn’t happened — yet.
As the bi-polar monetary world unfolds, via BRICS or replicant, reality will likely be disguised by the shuffling of Dollar Index constituents. You must then become even better suited to ‘reading between the lies’. – BDC
Good points BDC on not falling into the habit of linear thinking, opting for considering multiple inputs and paths ahead of us in a more non-linear thinking approach. As for the alternate BRICs currency in development, no it has not happened yet and will take time to unfold and become integrated, but it likely will shuffle the deck of fiat currencies in the process, and create more fluctuations.
When will Americans wake up to the cost of their military machine. The defense budget is much bigger than admitted. Over 100 military bases, just the cost of supporting that infrastructure is mind boggling, let alone the money spent on wars. Afghanistan was 2.3 trillion with a T not a B, and Ukraine is easily over 100 billion and counting. Then there are the casualties and the human suffering on both sides. Every time I watch TV I see adds for lawsuits against The US government for having benzene and other toxic chemicals in the water supply at Camp Lejeune between the years of 1953 to 1987. More than 500,000 military employees and their families were stationed there during this period, and it is only now that these lawsuits have been allowed to come forward. Most people who could be litigants are dead.
The US has been printing money at a greater rate than Europe, it’s easy to see why. But The American dollar keeps going higher not because it is the prettiest baby in the nursery but because it is “The World’s Reserve currency.” That is being addressed now by the rest of The World. Not because they want to but rather they must. DT
DT:
Somehow the US government at all levels has to publicly recognize that Central Banking/Corporations/large money interests have control. I know the world hates the word “regulation” , but the law has been undermined and redrafted to favor “money interests” to the detriment of a level playing field. The Public has to recognize the extent to which they have been “played” or scammed and reestablish control to attempt getting a more level playing field is the agenda and not the enemy. It requires an aggressive prosecution of corrupt people in positions of authority to the extent that criminal behavior is not profitable or tolerated. Citizens United Has to be removed first and funding of election has to be limited to voters only and no one person has an advantage. Since a majority of the citizens can no longer afford political contributions, it is apparent that there will have to be a central pot with limits to every politician so that the “politicians” feel obligated “only” to individual citizens equally and any other campaign funding treated as a bribe and a criminal violation. Then those elected can join in addressing issues with the proper agenda that supports the”actual” Constitution and not whatever version “special interests” put forward to their Base.
I should add that failure to address the above issue of control, will solidify an authoritarian fascist type structure. Once entrenched will be very difficult to remove and result in loss of personal freedoms, loss of personal property, no avenue of advancement and wide spread suffering except for the few elites that cornered the wealth of the country. Those that have been disenfranchised in the past will be joined by those that previously had a foot in the door… but no longer.
Lake:
Man is now an anthology, a collection of things that he has done in the past. The present and the future is advanced machine intelligence. I will leave it at that. DT
The Nuclear Energy Renaissance Has Arrived
Quill Robinson – Newsweek – 9/1/22
https://www.newsweek.com/nuclear-energy-renaissance-has-arrived-opinion-1739080
Uranium 101 with Alex Michshenko
Prospector – Sep 2, 2022
This episode of On the Rocks features Uranium 101 with Alex Michshenko, Head of US Operations at Kazatomprom Inc.
https://thenugget.prospectorportal.com/uranium-101-with-alex-michshenko
Elon Musk @elonmusk – 3:27 PM · Aug 26, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone
“Countries should be increasing nuclear power generation! It is insane from a national security standpoint & bad for the environment to shut them down.”
Japan Signals Return To Nuclear Power To Stabilize Energy Supply
By Mayu Sakoda – Reuters – August 24, 2022
South Korea Wins $2.5 Billion Order To Build Egypt’s First Nuclear Plant
Kotaro Hosokawa – Nikkei Asia – August 25, 2022
Western Countries Breathe New Life Into Old Nuclear Plants
Shehnaz AliBY – NewsNCR – August 28, 2022
https://www.newsncr.com/world/western-countries-breathe-new-life-into-old-nuclear-plants/
Uranium Market Minute – Episode 175: Is a Nuclear Renaissance Afoot?
Justin Huhn – Uranium Insider – Aug 30, 2022
France to restart all nuclear reactors by winter amid energy crunch
France 24 – September 2nd, 2022
“France’s minister for energy transition said Friday that French electricity giant EDF has committed to restart all its nuclear reactors by this winter to help the country through the broad energy crisis aggravated by the war in Ukraine.”
“France relies on nuclear energy for about 67% of its electricity – more than any other country – and on gas for about 7%.”
Here is a candleglance chart of a dozen widely followed Uranium stock names, showing the action over the last 2 months.
larry…………. that is a GREAT ARTICLE……….. so true……..JMO
IMO one can’t beat Jesse’s analysis. His thoughts about how far behind the FED is with its reversal of the last ten years of easing is something nobody else has focused on.
His thoughts on the dollar are refreshing but I do wish somebody had asked about the effect on the dollar from all the trade between Russia, China, India and others who are trying to escape the use of the dollar. It surely will have a negative effect on dollar demand.
If the price of oil heads to where he thinks it will, miners are in trouble unless prices for their production outstrips the cost of their energy needs.
Lots to consider in the coming months! Thanks for the interview.
Good thoughts Silverdollar, and yes, we always like getting Jesse’s insights and he is one of the guests I personally resonate with most as far as his overall macro outlook.
We have talked with other guests about how far the Fed is behind the curve and in unwinding the liquidity injected into the system, and Craig Hemke, Brien Lundin, John Rubino, and Peter Boockvar have made those same points in prior interviews we’ve done. It is unlikely that in this cycle that the central bank will be able to reduce their balance sheets anywhere close to the amount they have in past cycles, where even in those they never quite got rid of all the excessive debt they are carrying. Eventually, maybe next year, the Fed will inevitably have to start the whole cycle over again and start reliquifying the markets and trying to blow and even larger financial bubble. Rinse and repeat.
As for the US Dollar – we did talk with Jesse a little bit about it before we started recording, as we have with most guests, and really despite the actions in East to get out of the Dollar as a reserve currency and embark on a parallel currency project, the primary driver of the dollar pricing is simply how it relates to the other 6 currencies in dollar index – primarily the Euro, but also the Yen, and then to a lessor effect the other 4 fiats.
Joe was right, tax loss selling will come early this year. Get ready those with cash will survive.
Gold bugs got what you wanted, inflation, crash in stocks coming but but but gold not going to pay off for years, greedy bugs.
Following Joe at this stage could be hazardous to one’s financial health. JMO
Paul
It never ceases to amaze me that big bottoms come when the board has plenty of Bearishness sentiments. Yesterday there was good dialogue between Matthew and green! Both made valid points and what I personally took from it is that green is more cautious and conservative in his approach which is not a hot to him but also a compliment in his tried and done method. When I read the yea leaves and I’m not speaking for Matthew, he strikes me as more aggressive at bottoms like the current one and getting a good start to the race.
For example I will use greens approach regarding the 100dma crossing or possibly crossing the 200 dma, and to matthews defense he used 2008/2009 bottom of a scenario that never transpired. Interestingly enough this move seems very similar to that one and nothing can be taken at word but probabilities for myself lean more towards a bottom is already in most of these miners. I’m not saying silver can’t go to $14 and change its possible but the sniff and smell is here and I’m the now and although as green pointed out we may not break out into new highs for sikver for possibly 2 years I’d say 18-24 months same thing, what we failed to discuss is the v shaped bottom we are about to encounter could have silver fly from $14 to $28 in quick increments or from current level to $24 and then $28.. that a massive measured move up and that in my books is failure to capture the miners move in some cases could be 2/3/4 fold just to have silver or gold double top.. if your looking for the long haul you get in now not when we break $28 cause by then the miners will be up 2/3/4 fold from here. Just my opinion.
Tax loss selling came early because these stocks are TANKING!
The smart money has been SELLING, as I’ve implored everyone here to do so.
And it won’t end until…. well, DECEMBER!
Yep, that’s when the real bargains will be had in this space. Of course, something could change between now and then and gold could spike up. But right now there isn’t a damn thing I can see to make that happen. Rates go up, the dollar goes up, gold goes down. It’s just that simple.
You won’t listen to me, but at least listen to Doc Postma.
These stocks are about to go no-bid. SELL NOW WHILE YOU STILL CAN!!!!
SELL!!!!
Joe has cried wolf, wolf, and the wolf has only made the most fleeting of visits. Still there are plenty of doubters, the arguments against the economy being able to withstand the onslaught of inflation, is winning over the sober financial leaders of the country to some degree. They are finally admitting that inflation might be a menace. WOOF! WOOF! DT
Doc has talked-down every bullish setup since gold bottomed in 2015/16 and including everything that followed the 2018 low. And there’s never any acknowledgement of his blown calls after the fact. It’s always more “I was right all along.”
Here’s just a few examples:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2018-06-05&en=2020-02-15&id=p83298809862&a=637766494
Matthew, with all due respect, you seem a little too sensitive. This is simply a message board, we’re not curing cancer. Let’s try to keep it respectful. I’m sure Doc would be the first to admit that he hasn’t gotten everything correct, and hopefully you would also do the same.
One would think so but it’s never happened, not once. His perception of his record is the opposite of reality.
Did we not had tax loss selling also early last year, around July – September?
If I remember right Ex was very early with his tax loss selling
I think there was not much tax loss selling left in December
The best buying opportunities were in September I think
Maybe we see the same thing this year
Correct Thomas. I took the majority of my tax loss sales in July and August of last year and was buying them back for even lower prices, after the 30 day wash period, in late August through late September. People forget that there actually was a really nice rebound coming out of the very end of the September through November, for a profitable tradable rally. Now some stocks did reverse back down again in late November through December, so that was that normal “tax loss selling” window, but I’d submit many people took their lumps earlier in the year last year. I had big gains in Lithium, Uranium, Copper, and PGM/Nickel stocks, along with some nice scalps in the PM trades to wash out with those tax loss sales in 2021 and got it pretty close to a neutral tax position by December. My accountant was stunned at the 40+ pages of trading transactions that came over from my broker, and that I was able to essentially escape all the gains unscathed due to washing them out with tax loss sales. 😉
Now this year has been a much tougher year for me personally, as the big gains in Lithium, Copper, and the PGMs/Nickel aren’t there and I have reduced my exposure down completely in Lithium stocks (with no positions at all this year), and very minimal Battery Metals positions in Copper, Nickel, PGMs, Zinc. I do still have a nice weighting to the Uranium sector, with 7 positions, and had a solid trade in them from January to April where I harvested some gains, and have had a few good trades in the PM stocks, but not nearly the gains of the prior 3 years. I’ve already taken most of my tax losses early this year and am sitting with a negative report for the year (which I can also use to offset other contractor income I have). My plan was to take the tax losses early, so I could get repositioned for a stronger 2nd half of the year, but now most thing the 2nd half of the year will be weaker still.
I’d have to question if we’ll have as strong of a tax loss selling season this year compared to others, as so many investors don’t have many gains this year to offset, so most will likely roll those over to next year. Again, the losses in the PMs could offset other gains people have in other sectors (but the general equities and cryptos got monkey hammered all year long as well), or they can use them to offset 1099 contractor income, so some may elect to do that. I guess bottom line, this has been a crappier year in most sectors, so most investors simply don’t have the gains to wash out this year. Also, most of the folks left holding the mining stocks are the die-hard bulls at this point, so the weak hands already sold over the last 2 years.
Doc, what is your lower target for gold and silver before it is a prudent place to start to buy more?
Pardu, I’m not the type of person that likes to pick specific low targets (fool’s game) but instead watch my long term charts that often will signal we’re getting close to an important bottom. That’s why I’ll often give a range. What I’ll do in the future on my monthly interviews is I’ll emphatically state that I’m starting to purchase gold—-I haven’t purchased any for months. I hope this helps.
It would be nice to have the charts that you discuss posted together with the interview
Maybe Shad or Cory can attach them?
We’d be happy to post Doc’s charts Thomas, but we didn’t get any charts to post from him and simply pulled them up together on our own computers as we chatted about them.
We can always do something similar though to the charts we embedded on Steve Penny’s interview on Friday, if we get the images sent over.
Hey Doc, just a heads up that if people aren’t Stockcharts members that actually displays as a daily chart, and not as the monthly chart.
However what you can do is either do a print screen and convert it to a PDF and then post it here, or you can do a screen capture as a pdf, and do the same thing and post it here for showing folks the monthly chart.
Another option would be to do a print screen and save it as a Jpeg, and then email it to Cory and then he can embed it in the weekend show at the top.
Thomas, above is a link to the monthly gold chart—-notice how both the median dotted line/lower BB line are both turning down—if you compare it to those lines in 2013, they’re not as aggressive which is favorable since if pricing follows it may not be as aggressive—which would make sense since so many gold stocks have been taken to the shed. We’re in about the 27th month of this move—if you look at the move in 2011, the 27th month would fall in about October of 2013 which on a percentage basis was much lower from the peak then we’re at now from the peak of 2020. Notice from that point in October of 2013, you still had 2 years to seek the low. Now look at the adx strength indicator under the chart—-look at the black line—if you look at the peak in 2020 it is moving gently down versus the peak in 2011. That hopefully continues signalling we won’t see the percentage drop this time versus 2011. Notice the black adx line has taken out its’ recent low so we probably have more time to move lower. Any other questions on this chart—feel free to ask.
Doc, thanks for the link and the explanation
Of course you miss the point. Gold has risen time and time again after you thought it was going lower. Gold went $100 immediately following that exchange with Guy Bradley not down $40ish like you thought. Being wrong isn’t even the point. The point is the fact that you pretend you’ve been right all along when nothing could be further from the truth, especially when it matters most.
Picking specific low targets is obviously unnecessary.
I am hanging on to Jesse’s comment regarding the belief in the “fed being in control”, is too common……………there will be a “wolf under the sheepskin” moment when the market digests the fact that the Fed may have to give up tightening if unemployment crosses the 5 % line…………..if inflation is still way too strong ……………..golden gladiators may awaken and start to hedge this longer term inflation again
Avery plausible scenario IMHO !
Bring on the golden gladiators!
The HUI bounced precisely at a Fibonacci fan support slightly above two fork supports.
Since this is arguably the most important holiday weekend for the stock market the next week or two could be very different than most expect. I won’t be surprised if next week starts lower despite Friday’s strength but I doubt that big downside action will be sustained considering the current sentiment and how wrung out the market is.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p23338994742&a=1197925784
As mentioned to crickets yesterday or the day before, SILJ bottomed versus GDX and GDXJ way back in May. It will prove to be a mistake to ignore the implications of that strength.
SILJ has in fact been basing versus most asset classes for many weeks and for good reason.
Here’s SILJ vs QQQ:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p63576166694&a=1029575168
The silver miners are so undervalued compared to most other sectors, and compared to the other components of the precious metals sector. They are presenting the most compelling value setup at present, for the medium term resolution and return to the mean.
SILJ:GDXJ is in a short term uptrend and its 20 day MA just crossed above its 200 day MA for the first time in 2 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDXJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p57075102764&a=1243631918
SILJ:SPY says silver stocks are much more appealing here than the stock market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p11361791666&a=1092956388
+1 Agreed.
Doc was calling for Gold to head down to $1600 and trade sideways June 2020 instead a week later it went on a run to $2050.
Just a reminder that no one is 100%.
GDX and GDXJ are historically very cheap right now.
Commercial hedgers are net long silver as of the most recent COT report and that IS bullish but not necessarily meaningful for timing. The COT structure has improved massively since April and in fact was historically bullish by May yet the May low was taken out at the end of June and the COT went on to further improve and dramatically so.
Such net long readings are rare.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p52917092074&a=500462915
The new low for silver was not confirmed by either the RSI or the action in SILJ.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p40626477596&a=1217300357
Matthew for COT info I use the following free sites…CME group.com, cotpricecharts.com, CFTC.gov …….Do you have any better…That site mentioned by Bob Moriarty in an article posted by EX is called insider-week.com…Awesome graphics….
Same old repeated over and over again, now going on a couple of years, each of which was the apparent low. The bagholders lament.
In this period gold has stayed in a consolidation, little more than a couple hundred bucks say 10% or so. Peanuts vs the sector equities which have been absolutely crushed. Nothing will change till the upside leverage returns with sector equities vs gold. This last couple week pop up in July shows no difference with that possibility, as was the case with the past exalted previous pop ups.
All the babble gab with pitchforks, comparisons amongst lesser losers, claims that it has to go up because it’s so oversold, doesn’t change the trend of the past, and to claim otherwise is simply stupid.
You’re an idiot jonsy and what kind of dipshit says “babble gab” over and over again? Lol. Those forks have provided countless highs and lows of different degrees including the top for the HUI and XAU (senior gold and silvers) in April. Get used to being a loser if you’re going to spend every day being a bitch instead of bettering yourself.
Thanks, that was good for a morning laugh.
oh there you go again with idiot, dipshit to defend your market babble, which you then often disclaim as not being investment advise, as if anyone wiith a lick of sense would believe it to be the case anyway.
You forget that I posted and sold the April top, and then posted last buying mid june for 25% holding.
You never do say what you’re in for with the market, except the babble of all the accumulation lows you manage to call.
The Federal Reserve is talking tough about raising rates to quell inflation, they really don’t care about inflation, if these rate increases crash the system, then their ego will come into play, and they will reverse course. Anything to avoid the inevitable which is they are no longer in control. The worst part is that The Federal Reserve is not allowed to lend money to the banks for speculation in the stock market. They are trapped and they will do whatever they want to prop up these markets. DT
If the feds feel the need to buy the stock market they WILL. And we will all pay for it, in the public interest , and it will be sanctioned by your elected representatives.
Think Japan, and our 2009 debacle DT
The TSX-V is still about 9% off of its July low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54193925595&a=1162141959
The TSX-V vs CRB hasn’t been so oversold since 2008.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=18&mn=5&dy=0&id=p74937965063&a=1191117099&r=1662245253057&cmd=print
TSX-V vs Gold has been capped by falling fork resistance for the last 2-3 weeks but is still more than 8% off its low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p97569494170&a=1111505506
Chile, a country getting 50% of its revenues from the mining industry, goes to the polls today Sunday to vote on a new constitution to better the lives of its people and protect the lives of native guanacos, chinchillas and vicunas. The outcome of that vote could affect the value of assets in North America.
What has happened lately in Chile and Peru, along with Colombia, Ecuador, and Guatemala, has me less and less interested in having much exposure to Latin America. I do have a few companies with exposure to Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, but I feel better about those countries than the aforementioned ones.
Right, so much happening in N. America. No need to look down there.
I’d rather invest (and do) in many parts of West Africa than in many parts of Latin America, despite it being perceived at risky. In my experience, many more mines make it into production, more takeovers have happened, with less permitting red tape, and on budget/on time in West African nations than in most other jurisdictions. There are risks in certain local areas with Muslim militants, or local community pushback, and some political turnover, but overall they have reasonable traction and success, even more so than many supposedly better US or Canadian jurisdictions.
I think Chile will be fine – people voted against the new constitution
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/world/americas/chile-constitution-no.html
That’s good to hear and appreciate the update.
Simplicity : Orphan Low : https://postimg.cc/wyH1dVwY
Do or Die : https://postimg.cc/9rQGvWkF
The above re: GLD
James Altucher talks to Doug Casey.
https://jamesaltucher.com/podcast/doug-casey/
Patrick Timpone interviews Martin Armstrong : https://tinyurl.com/5n8p539k
Armstrong’s Socrates Artificial Intelligence program monitors the entire world, writes reports, and generates charts and graphs.
What would China do first if they were to invade the US? Sell off US debt. Selloffs mean the money will be spent somewhere else. Bretton Woods collapsed because of a business cycle. Politicians don’t understand currency. It’s no longer a global economy.
European Commission leader says she doesn’t understand why electricity prices will be higher this winter.
John McCain was the leader of the NeoCons. Nasty person. It didn’t matter what Russia did, McCain thought they would always be the enemy. Putin is Russia’s leader because of a plot to take over Russia. They wanted NATO to absorb Russia.
Armstrong has a new book coming out about it called Seizure of Russia, based on declassified documents from Clinton’s presidency. Putin was not a communist nor an oligarch. Yeltsin turned to Putin because he was neutral. Yeltsin’s last words to Putin: “Protect Russia”.
When forming the Euro, they didn’t consolidate debt. Europe has cancelled currencies routinely. US has never cancelled its currency.
Civil War was because of state’s rights issues, not slavery. People didn’t want to be dictated to by federal government. Abortion rights, taxes – current hotspots because of efforts to federalize them. State’s rights issues again a cause of discord. Socrates says US will split. South joins with the Midwest. Northeast by itself. Northwest formed by California, Washington, Oregon.
The situation with Russia is quite serious. People in the Donbass are Russians. Khrushchev and Brezhnev were born in the Donbass. You don’t have ethnic Ukrainians. Minsk agreement was to allow the Donbass to vote, but they never were allowed. After 2014 revolution, US put in an interim government, which immediately attacked the Donbass. Zelensky was elected on lies to end corruption and seek peace with Russia. He has over $100 million stashed.
What will happen in the midterms? If Republicans elected, might help the economy. The best shot is the House. They are desperate, which is why they raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago. Biden might grant citizenship to illegals 3 weeks before the election. DOJ has sued Arizona for legislation preventing illegals from voting. Armstrong predicts a separatist movement in the future. Look at Rome for an historical example. Socrates shows a sharp rise in geopolitical and civil unrest for next year. Mara-a-Lago raid has led to tremendous decrease in the political status of the US outside the US.
Putin is not going to be defeated by Ukraine. He’s a moderate. We’re in trouble if he’s gone. [Medvedev is the real Russian Hawk! BDC]
BDC:
You made a lot of good points concerning Russia and The US. If The US got control of Russia through Nato, they could control China, by cutting off their energy supplies. China would then need to go to The Middle East for oil, and they would pay a lot more, and natural gas would be much harder to obtain. Canada would follow The US lead. DT
U.S. controlling Russia is a pipe dream imo.
Russia is crushing the EU, Nato and the U.S. with this Ukraine conflict.
The protests have begun, in Prague, these protests will spread, in the UK Liz Truss said she would nuke Russia. Thats sanity for ya.
As much sanity as Ukraine trying to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Lets hope the Russians can continue to stop them.
The British government is printing 60 billion to spread around to citizens.
Wood cutting for heat is the new fad.
European countries have sent so many weapons to Ukraine they have begun to leave their own countries short on defense.
Yesterday again the meat grinder ground over 600 Ukrainian soldiers, and countless equipment.
Couple of days ago the losses were about 1700 soldiers.
How long can that go on?
The world laffs at the west idea of an oil price cap, we become less and less relevant.
These sanctions on Russia are going to bring the west into a major depression
We heard from the first american retired US Army brigadier general Mark T. Kimmitt that negotiating a surrender/peace just might be, maybe could be a good idea. Maybe.
Our leaders have been so outplayed by the Russians its embarrassing, just maybe our leaders should take note that they are just not in the same league.
We are witnessing the end of the american empire, the only question I have is “has the empire died for Israel”?
It does look like thats the case.
Maybe Trump could tell us. 😉
DT – The synopsis is by ‘One Radio Network’ which hosts Patrick Tampone (I should have used quotes). They are points made by Martin Armstrong during the show, and they appear reasonable to me. – BDC
Time for Mei Culpa…..Admitting to being pill selling fraud collapsing americas health…Soul soothing…sage….glta
http://fenewsnet.com/2022/06/17/doctors-admit-theyre-harming-and-killing-patients/
“Russia proposes new precious metals exchange to compete with LBMA”
Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead Of The Herd (ATOH), 02Sep2022
https://aheadoftheherd.com/russia-proposes-new-precious-metals-exchange-to-compete-with-lbma/
My Comment:
A cogent review of past, current, and possible future events regarding the “Great Eurasian Partnership”, which includes: BRICS, EAEU, SCO, ASEAN. Of interest to me, is the seemingly inexorable march towards the demise of the US Dollar Hegemony and the concomitant re-valuation of precious metals. This article has significantly changed my perspective; I will now ponder the time-frame for the unfolding.
Quotes from Article:
“So here we have the majority of the world’s precious metals-producing nations, possibly setting up their own price discovery cartel, to take on the longstanding LBMA.”
“… a conglomeration of 3 billion people using a gold and commodity-backed rouble is “Something for the Western media to ponder.””
“If de-dollarization and a sell-off of US Treasuries were to happen on a larger scale than currently, the buck’s value would decline accordingly, paving the way for higher commodity prices including gold.”
Unlike gold, GLD got its closest to its 2021 low just last Thursday at 19 cents (0.12%) away.
The significance of the level reached last week should be obvious even to creepy little malcontent jonsyl. Even he should grasp the risk if it breaks on a weekly closing basis…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52897550667&a=1243922858
if, maybe, should, could etc etc
You just can let go.
But I’m sure one of the above will prove u right. Let’s see what happens Matthew. Then you can pick one of the above.
In my last post you got where I stand in precise terms.
Oddly enough, I overestimated you.
My new investment theory: everything that happens is designed to get me to sell. I haven’t done that yet. But, I have rebalanced to better quality miners in my belief that it at least de-risks the account somewhat.
Lake:
Beware of The Ides Of September, The falling knives will get you and your portfolio! Ha, Ha, Ha. DT!🙄
DT:
Falling knives were my specialty until my hands fell off….:)
Good to see some humor.
Good one Lakedweller2! 😆
I remember earlier this year when a few people commented to beware the Ides of February and more classic Ides of March. The PMs actually rallied from January – April, so all of those folks that were busy being beware missed a solid tradable rally once again.
After 5 bearish monthly closes in gold, I’m a bit more optimistic that we’ll see a positive green monthly candle in September. However, with a Fed rate hike (likely 75 basis points) in cue this month, and a quad witching options expiration the 3rd week of Sept, then it still could get pretty choppy on the open seas of the markets. Good sailing out there ya scallwags.
Need to go to King World News and read the first article JPM, Citi , Bis by Piepenburg…. good summary of the Fed, LBMA and Comex
My chart has me telling that In short order Brixton is kissing 21.5/22 and then a pull back to maybe 15/16 but then a powerful move much higher let’s just say into the 50’s… this waiting for gold for two years or silver breakout is loss opportunity in the miners moves now.
If you are In for the long term you will regret not buying now even if it goes slightly lower which I don’t think will happen.
How about IAG, it might kiss .50 before Brixton.
Crude is going to be stuck in a consolidation pattern possibly for 7/8 months before turning down even lower. Downside target for 10/12 month projections is around $42/$45 a barrel with an extreme overshoot possibility to the $28/$32 area.. Can I tell you what the miners will do during this time? Can I also tell you what the dollar will do during this time? 😀
The setup couldn’t be better!
Lake:
Be careful in September we may very well see a little distress selling on The Stock Exchange. Your friends the Central Bankers will be meeting to discuss the proposed rate increase. I fear margin accounts are not being satisfactorily maintained. There are a number of fundamental causes to be concerned about for the markets. Have you got your life vest and water wings on! LOL! DT🤣😎
Lake: This Also:
Tuesday morning might not be a good time for you to be pacing back and forth on the sidewalk in front of The New York Stock Exchange mumbling about your resource portfolio, you never know what might drop in your lap! DT😉
I am staying away from JPM as they throw things out of windows. … the higher the floor the better. I am waiting for that suicide that jumps from the 27th floor with cause of death: “multiple nail gun wounds and drowning”.
Hey the drowning is not impossible, …if , there is a swimming pool on site…… 🙂
I guess they could drown before jumping as they do unbelievable things with our money…and yes, a long cord could open up the nail gun on the way down possibility…and the truth is often spun … so yes, I think another Tulip craze could start tomorrow…if I got this rigt…
Dr Hennigh has been following ReD Pine on his broadcasts with Crescat. They have had back to back decent drill results and another today released. I bought some for first time today. Looking to see how things go today with everything. A lot of oil talk on CNBS.
Midnight Sun having move and don’t know why.
Bitterroot having small move and could be because Goldfinger and Moriarty mentioned in recent interview.
Otherwise they are running the same old algos. Some up some down.
I’ve been adding bits and pieces below $1700 gold, but may have to lower my entries.
#19 “The $1675 zone has been the launchpad for some very impressive rallies in silver and the miners.
#20 Unfortunately, that welcome mat may now be a bit worn out, so I’m urging investors to focus on $1610 and $1810 as the next “Space helmets on!” buy zones for the miners.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_090622.html
Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse & Doc.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!