TG Watkins – The Technical Bear and Bull Cases For The S&P 500, And A 1970’s Style Macroeconomic Backdrop
TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of the Profit Pilot website, joins us to review his technical bear case and bull case for the S&P 500, the potential parallels to a 1970s style sideways market grind, as well as some comment on the energy sector.
When discussing the general equity markets TG has been watching to see how the S&P 500 was reacting to the 10 month simple moving average (SMA), and more short-term how it reacts to the 21 day SMA. Medium-term he is watching to see if a rally up to the 200 day SMA will result in a move back lower to test the 50 day SMA, which he sees as a key support level. For the bearish case, if the SPX was to break below the 50 day SMA, then that would bring into focus the 50 month SMA, down around 3500, and then after that the 3rd ATR, based on Kelter channels, down around 3200. This potential lower support level would also be aligned with where a 35% correction would fall, which is a standard move lower in a true bear market.
On the bullish case TG outlines a quantitative analysis study that shows a number of bull markets kicked off in the general equities (except 2 times) where over 90% of equities rallied above their 50 day SMA in a bear market rally, which we did just see play out on this recent relief rally. The concern would be that if we see this already 13 year long rally in general equities start a new bullish leg higher, that it may get stuck in a multi-year sideways trading channel, quite similar to what we saw play out in the mid 1970s. TG highlights the similar environment to the seventies where we have high inflation, and a Fed “chasing their tail” trying to hike rates to reign in the persistently high inflation.
If we were to see that longer sideways grind, then TG noted that safer value sectors like consumer staples, like Coca Cola, Herseys, etc.. would fair best. We wrap up with getting the technical outlook on the energy sector, another area of the market that did quite well in the 1970s, and has outperformed most other sectors over the last 2 years. TG lays out some levels he is watching in US natural gas, which has really been on a tear higher, and then reviews the more sideways and mixed technical set up with oil.
Click here to visit the Profit Pilot website to follow along with TG’s trading strategies.
In light of the recent pullback in the PM miners, I finally had the opportunity to get back into Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO) in a bigger way today. I had nibbled last week, but added in a bigger way today, and see it as an easy double from here, if it just goes back up to it’s recent highs north of $16, not to mention Wesdome is a prime takeover target for one of the big boys, like Agnico Eagle.
It’s been a tough environment for the PM stocks, but very nice to pick up some quality and best-in-class companies lately, while they are on the clearance rack.
On Friday I said:
The stock market is a daily chart sell in my book.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p38921968678&a=976557365
NEM ( Newmont) new position, starting off small – 30 @ $42.89
Good points Ex and Matthew!
My previous post had gold going down to the technical $1738-1742 region and it ran my stop by $10 bones lol.. now I believe this is a good short term buy and I’m a long! Makes sense that ex added 👍💪
Some folks don’t get bottoms and turns I’m not sweating one bit! Why? Experienced traders and investors absolutely know we are at a cross death turn and if you don’t see it I will personally come back in 8-9 months and tell you exactly why 🙂
The US dollar is parabolic blow off phase continuous. I actually get a good chuckle because he who knows, knows there trapped and the bear market squeeze to the upside will spank everyone including spanky my daughters favourite movie the rascals lol.
Glen is going to tell you folks we’re I think we actually are and I’m an original ker from long ago and going up against all posters and guest! We are at 2000 low and that tells you we’re we are going. More specific we are at the October low! For US dollar and hui on a monthly please look at that chart it tells you we’re we are headed 👀
At any point and I say could be this month or definitely by October we are taking off in the miners so I don’t reason with some posters about spring or summer if next year not at all 100% come back and mail me if I’m wrong! 100% we are turning very soon as the dollar has maybe one more push if that maybe two but there done! Miners will explode… I told you so
Glen
Ps inhave shown my hui chart an xau chart I expect it to hold! Remember there are some very bullish smart commentators like myself Matthew ex and many bothers who have spoken deeply about the 4 th quarter gold in a quarterly pattern cycle! Graddy has also a said this. Gold is going to fly soon!!
This is based on research my last technical chart and others. This is not being a homer bull. I have been through everything and bring it on the cycle has them bankers by the throat!!
I will take a page out of joe please don’t sell! Please don’t!
Glen
Wow, I’m a perma PM bull, but your calls have been absolutely horrendous. Still you pat yourself on the back and call yourself a experienced trader and investor, thinker, philosopher and whatnot.
“Some folks don’t get bottoms and turns I’m not sweating one bit! Why? Experienced traders and investors absolutely know we are at a cross death turn and if you don’t see it I will personally come back in 8-9 months and tell you exactly why 🙂”
Ehh, ok. You’ve said this many times, but when you were proven wrong you didn’t recognize it at all.
And Graddhy? Wtf, dude? He blocks ppl who proves his horrendous calls. For a great TA expert who want to share his wisdom to others for free, like the great humanist he is, he sure seem to hate when ppl question him. Like most other megalomaniacs. His friends Patrick Karim, the french dude, and that ridiculous weather guy Northstar who thought he had discovered the magic solution to be rich by applying weather statistics to the stock market, with his arcs. When they failed he just moved them with Photoshop (as do Graddhy). The only guy missing here is David Hunter, the great contrarian who has been wrong since his great call of March 2020, just hates been questioned.
Guys like you and them never own your mistakes and wrong calls. It’s only when your calls hit you show up and tell the world how great you are. Kinda like Joe but in reverse.
Anyways, I really hope you are right bc I’m all in (90%) in this fekken sector. A stupid mistake I sure won’t be doing again.
My calls have always been out there as a straight shooter no sugar coating anything and not dressed in wolves sheets like some. I’m not perfect but I’ve made timely calls and projections and have on several occasions spoke about changing my pattern before a move down was made. I have always been very clear with what I do and how I do it. There are some who do appreciate the comments.
Please enlighten us all with something of value instead or how about you make a call instead if bitching lol.
The context of your post today only confirms a strong bottom is already in the miners and gold 😃👍
Well, we all enjoy your posts, as entertainment. Like a Japanese game show or something kookie.
Your need of attention is also amusing, always wanting to get recognition from Matthew and others here.
Regarding my bitching, I agree with you. Years of this crap show took a toll on me. I hope this is THE bottom. I’ll gladly buy you a year of consumption of Dom Perignon when my PF goes up.
Cheers
Don’t speak for others or try dragging others into your idiotic thinking towards me! Everyone is a grown man in here so grow some and learn to live with your losses and stop being a mammas boy 😉
Also regarding don many in here know me I’m a napa guy cake bread type of stuff and I don’t need charity not from anyone yet a bozo like you.
See ya!!
LoL, I sure hit a nerve there, didn’t I?
“Doc and Matthew agree with me” bla bla bla.. every time you must show that you belong to the knowledgeable ppl here. you want to connect yourself with ppl a lot smarter than you, which is quite pathetic. Be a man and stand for yourself. I think most of the sane crowd here feel sorry for your ludicrous attempts to be someone of importance at KER.
You should stop “trading and investing” with your gigantic $2.500 portfolio and apply to a Japanese network for a game show host. No one understands your drivel anyway.
I was clearly joking about my PF and buying you champagne, anyone understands that but you. Your perception of your knowledge and greatness is not in parity with reality.
Cheers napa bud!
Says the guy who desperately want to be recognized by Doc and Matthew..
What are you smoking lol? What a loser you are probably a lonely one as well with his own family 🤭
Glen
Whatever, japanese jester
Yuppers Again, 😉
Battaglia, I agree with your thinking! DT
The village hipotrica has arrived 😜
DT, every forum has an kookie “intellectual”.
We just recognized who it is… well, we actually did that a long time ago.
LoL
Actually there was no nerve hit just responding back to the idiot villager lol. The original nerve struck was you coming in and responding to my post like a crazy women. I think we know who showed his emotions 😂 by the way who goes on a hissy fit talking about there portfolio so down and crying about it? You can just tell by your responses how weak you are.
You should have never responded to my post there is always an ignore button but of course your weak emotions got the better of you and you seem to like to hear your voice and start drama when this is a free speech board and i have been here for years and don’t plan to go anywhere 🤷♂️
So i would suggest unless you have anything positive to say regarding the ker and investments or politics in the orphan area as my buddy Jerry would say, what good do you do here if your not providing anything worth while with direction or investments? All you provide is hate and attacks for your ego!
Now move along I have better things to do then keep responding to a nobody.
Ps still waiting for a call or anything that would provide investment opportunity in the now. Not dribble
Glen
LoL
You sound like an estrogen filled vengeful woman.
You soy boys act very much like women when confronted. Stop drinking soy milk!
Most ppl here can’t stand your delusional and moronic rantings about your “greatness” and would gladly blocked your emotional drivel long time ago, but unfortunately there is no block function.
I was clearly joking abt my PF, but the neurotic woman in you got that wrong. Again. As all of your “top notch” calls.
And you are right, I’m a nobody. I don’t pretend to be a top “investor” like you. I live, unlike you, in reality.
As for my call: I think we are about to se either a reversed HS or a double bottom in the sector (depending on which chart you look at).
I’m surely wrong but enough man to admit it later, unlike the “top investor” aka Japanese Game Show Host you are
Sayonara Glen-San
You do understand your weakness? Always begging for help upon others to come and rescue you from are discussions! Your weak and pathetic and an Imbecile not capable of doing his own laundry!
Lol case closed…
Glen
Says the guy who desperately want to be recognized by Doc and Matthew..
You’re truly a pathetic clown, KERs own court jester.. and probably other sites as well.
Your husband must be so proud of you..
Jay Martin interviewed Bob Moriarty 4 days ago, what was startling is that Jay got vaccinated for covid and he got the booster. He revealed at the end of the interview that he recently was diagnosed with Myocarditis. He immediately realized something was wrong and he got treated. But he also said he had the money to pay for the treatment. DT
You will owe nothing, you will own nothing, and you will be happy! What happens when your health fails, will you be able to look after yourself and your family! DT
Big Brother is there for them!
Some of us, on ship of fools, plan on getting raptured out of USA of corrupt GOVT.
Faucci planning to soon retire. Plan B: Lawyer up
A Central Bank Digital Currency varies greatly from other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, the digital currency is controlled by the federal government. While they maintain control over factors like interest rates within the currency, they also have built-in mechanisms that include “programmatic algorithms” in the currency. These algorithms amount to Chinese Communist-style control over your money. How fast you can spend your money, where you can spend it, and even the things you buy will be subject to “government approval” before the transaction is approved.
The current economic crisis of a looming 2022 recession has brought on the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act.” Buried in the text of the bill and a March 2022 Executive Order from Joe Biden are fine-print passages about a new financial technology that the U.S. government will enact and pilot. It’s called the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
The exact text of the order reads: “The Order also encourages the Federal Reserve to continue its research, development, and assessment efforts for a U.S. CBDC, including development of a plan for broader U.S. government action in support of their work. This effort prioritizes U.S. participation in multi-country experimentation, and ensures U.S. leadership internationally to promote CBDC development that is consistent with U.S. priorities and democratic values.”
(article at zerohedge)
Well written
i go by charts…so any guest to explain what is up would be welcome…thanks!…glta
Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
Dollar Pull Back Based Bounces:
PM Fundamentals Better?
NatGas Topping?
Freeport LNG: Operations restart delayed a month. NatGas down.
https://www.energyexch.com/news/1174732-freeport-lng-development-we-expect-to-be-able
maybe the ubber weak new home sales -12% is increasing expectation of fed pivot?….
XAU:gold’s 200 WMA is set to cross above the 600 WMA sometime around March 2023. That is, barring a complete meltdown in the miners a la 2008-09, which could change the current upward trajectory of the 200 WMA.
If the 200 WMA successfully crosses above the 600 WMA, it will be the first time that has happened since 1994-1995, believe it or not. It has been that long since the miners have actually outperformed gold on a long term basis.
That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me one iota if the miners did crash vs gold before that cross occurs. It would just be yet another tree shaking event before a historic trend change. After all, absolutely nothing has come easy in this sector for the last 12-13 years, and I am not so sure that is going to change anytime soon. XAU:gold’s 200 WMA crossing above the 600 WMA would be a very big deal IMO.
Wow. Took a long time to catch up this time but caught up I am. Keep up the great work guys. Some great interviews and great charts.
For those looking at doing short term trades like 1-2 day pops for 10-20% I’ve found a great buy signal. Any time Joe posts SELL SELL SELL 2 days in a row buy on the 2nd day. Works to perfection. 😎
He has to be a Banker.
Joe the Tell is a Vegas dealer…lol.
3 minute DXY now weak…barely achieves .382 countertrend rallies…glta
World Food Shortage Going From ‘Bad To Worse,’ UN official says
Akiko Fujita – Yahoo Finance – Tue, August 23, 2022
“The number of people acutely hungry have dramatically accelerated since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. While 135 million people faced acute food insecurity before the pandemic, that number has more than doubled to 276 million over the last two years.”
“It’s the story that keeps getting from bad to worse,” U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) Chief Economist Arif Husain told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “When the World Food Programme is setting records, that’s not a good thing for the world. And we have been doing that since at least 2021.”
“According to the WFP, 50 million people across 45 countries are already on the verge of famine. Another 345 million people are approaching starvation across more than 80 countries, Husain said, a 25% increase from the start of the year.”
Absolutely nothing about the recent weakness has done anything to threaten last months low or make me think that we’re in for another bear rally and not a new bull rally.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=11&id=p12251207193&a=1230657507
Ichimoku cloud support also held perfectly today:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p04708113829&a=745541155
Selling now is like buying 2 years ago, not a good idea.
Fed Balance Sheet FAQs
Joseph Wang – August 22, 2022
“The Fed’s Treasury portfolio continued to grow even after QE due to principal adjustments from TIPS. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (“TIPS”) are a type of Treasury security whose principal is adjusted for inflation each month to protect the investor from inflation. For example, $100 principal invested in TIPS would be adjusted to $110 principal after a year of 10% inflation. The Fed’s $370b holdings of TIPs has been gradually adjusted higher due to elevated inflation. That growth in turn shows up as small but steady increases in its overall Treasury holdings.”
https://fedguy.com/fed-balance-sheet-faqs/