Marc Chandler – King Dollar, Global Currencies, Fed Policy Expectations, and Economic Health
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us for a discussion on the strong US dollar, the health of other global currencies, Fed policy expectations, and the health of the US economy. One of the reasons the greenback has bounced back higher is due to concerns with other nations facing even higher inflation, and central banks even further behind the curve.
We look at how the markets reacted when the dollar had rolled over and a risk on mentality came back into the markets, but Marc mentions that move may now be over, with all eyes on the Jackson Hole symposium next Friday.
We discuss the economic health in the US and the mixed signals being received with stronger jobs data and retail sales, but weaker GDP growth and housing markets. Marc then shares the data he is watching that indicates a shift in expectations from rate cuts in early 2023 to extended Fed rate hikes to continue fighting inflation.
The Dollar is only King in relation to other even worse fiat currencies, but being in Cash is a guaranteed loss of buying power as it is being eroded by 8.5% inflation according to the CPI (or worse if you live in the real world).
Joe – What data (fundamental, quantitative, technical) are you using to proclaim the mining stocks will be even lower in December and levels they’ve not seen for 4 years?
Also – Why are you screaming at investors telling them what to do with their money and in their trading?
Joe the Tell.
Always near the bottom.
Never at the Top!
Yep. He is silent for weeks during rallies to the upside and only shows up during corrective periods to troll.
I’ve yet to see him unpack any substantive data as to his bearish thesis, and yet he screams in all caps to do what he proclaims regardless. It takes all kinds I guess.
If people remember Franky on this site a few years back, he’d get on here and speak in all kinds of gibberish screaming to “BUY, BUY, BUY” “Cool is the way…” but he never offered any logical reasons as to why we should all buy anything. Joes comments are just like those but just on the sell side.
Any clown can say buy or sell, but that is just noise. Even if the market goes the direction that they suggest (not hard it’s a 50/50 chance to guess correctly), that doesn’t give any credence to their proclamations.
Give us the specific data and rationale used to come to the bullish or bearish thesis or spare us the BS.
After careful consideration of Joe’s investment advice and support thereof, I have come to the conclusion that it is time to Sell … or Buy … or maybe hold. I think he made that clear.
Added: I am not sure what though. I am going to have a yard sale first.
Hmmmm. I see the conundrum, but if we are guiding our investing principals strictly on the Rule Of Joe, then it seems best to just sell some things (apparently indiscriminately) to raise some cash. Apparently we are going to need it. I guess I can sell a few things to lighten up a little.
Then I may deploy some cash in a few beat up names to “buy low” while the getting is good.
Then with the rest I’m going to hold because I’ve already accumulated at lower levels and at attractive valuations, and can withstand any pullbacks; but also still want to be in position for future rallies.
There solved the riddle. Wow, by utilizing technical and fundamental analysis, and selling, buying, and holding, it is almost as if one can have discernment when trading and not just have binary outcomes for all markets. Amazing!
Seems to me, broad market selloff starts with takedown of PM’S, followed by crypto & conventionals. Long UVXY
All 3 markets – PMs, Cryptos, US Equities had bounced for 3-4 weeks, so a corrective week here was not unexpected to cool things off. It’s possible that was it for the relief rally, but then again, the corrective action this last week may also be what brings more money back in off the sidelines.
It has been quite telling that the last few weeks we saw that speculative “hot money” back in the cryptos and meme stocks like Bed Bath & Beyond, Gamestop, and AMC again, only to get trounced again the last few trading sessions. That doesn’t mean the punters won’t give it another go in the weeks to come though.
I do agree though that we are likely to see the general markets roll over, and it would not be surprising at all to see the S&P or Nasdaq or Russell go down and test their recent lows, or even to break through them to lower levels in a more capitulative selling event. If we get just a bit more enthusiasm in the general indexes in Aug/early Sep then I may use inverse ETFs to short the general equities for the next leg down.
Look for the market to try and make a double top before the carnage begins
King dollar indeed.
And it’s good to be the king.
And it’s very good to own as many kings as you can now.
If it hasn’t been clear this week, then you aren’t paying attention.
PMs ARE GOING DOWN!!!!!!
SELL NOW!!!!!!
All those PM stocks you own, especially the juniors, are GOING DOWN!!!
Sell now or wait until December when many of these stocks will be at price levels they haven’t seen in 4 years.
YOU NEED CASH!!! SELL NOW!!!!!
DO IT!!!!!!
SELL!!!!