Weekend Show – A Focus On Resource Investing, North American Jurisdictions Breakdown and Silver Insights
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. It was another boring week until Friday when the CPI data showed inflation is not slowing which caused some volatility in markets. US markets closed at the lows for the week while precious metals were one of the only sectors to benefit from the high inflation read.
On this Weekend’s Show we feature Jayant Bhandari and Jeff Christian. We stick to resource stocks and silver with a couple comments on Fed policy thrown in.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jayant Bhandari, Private Investor and Consultant kicks off the show with a focus on jurisdictions in North America. We start by jumping around Canada then move to the US and Mexico. This will be part of an ongoing conversation with Jayant when we move to other countries in future interviews.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group joins us to discuss the news that’s moving markets and silver. It’s a boring time for investors considering that it continues to be inflation and the Fed driving markets, none of which have changed much throughout the year. When it comes to silver we discuss price and investor demand. Click here to learn more about the CPM Group.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Organto Foods – Recapping Record Q1 Financial Results And Strategy To Deal With Supply Chain Issues and Higher Prices
- Thor Explorations – Financial, Production, and Exploration Update At Segilola, Ongoing Exploration At Douta
- I-80 Gold Corp – Exponential Production And Development Growth Paired With Exploration Growth
- Labrador Gold – Initial Drill Results From The Golden Glove Target And 6 Holes From The Pristine Target, All Hitting High-Grade Gold
- Gold Bull Resources – Drill Results At Silica Ridge Intersect 83.8m At 1.5 g/t Gold From Surface, Including 3m At 14.67g/t Gold
- Libero Copper – Company Updates On The Big Red Project, Mocoa Project, and Esperanza Project
- Newcore Gold – Recapping Over 10,000 Meters Of Drilling At Tokosea On The Enchi Gold Property
- Fireweed Zinc – 2022 Exploration Plans At The Macmillan Pass Project and 2 New Assets Added To The Portfolio
- Volcanic Gold Mines – Maiden Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of 406,316 oz at 9.57 g/t gold equivalent for the Holly Project
Fridays Gold move up, despite everything else falling might have been the bottom, finally?
Can Gold am PM miners decouple from the general market?
Friday’s rally in gold and silver wasn’t huge, but it was significant as continued divergence and outperformance compared to the general markets. What was a real treat though, to end the week on Friday, was how well the gold and silver mining stocks performed; [because they’ve really been taking a beating over the last month and half].
Is it a bounce and the beginning of a larger move or just a kneejerk reaction to the hotter than expected CPI inflation reading? We’ll see how it plays out… but, there’s not nearly enough data or follow through to begin to know one way or the other at this point.
It would be quite encouraging if we had a strong monthly/quarterly close in gold here in June. To get a little momentum going though, we’d need to see some follow-through buying and strength in the PMs as June continues to unfold.
Unfortunately, we’ve seen a series of false bullish breakouts in Gold that got everyone’s hopes up over the last 2 years.
– Gold rallied in late September 2020 through the end of October 20202, only to dive lower.
– Then there was the rally in from a lower level in late November 2020 to right after Christmas in December of 2020, only to turnaround and nosedive lower for 2 months.
– Then there was the double bottom at $1673 and $1675 Gold in March of 2021 that ended up being the lowest price in gold since the pandemic crash of March 2020. Out of this March 2021 double bottom at $1673-$1675 there was a 2 month rally up through late May of 2021, before rolling over into mid June.
– Then from the mid-June 2021 low there was a small rally up to mid-July before rolling over, followed by another rally from the beginning of August 2021 to the end of that month, before crashing back down again.
– Then from mid-September to early November 2021 there was again another good rally in Gold, before rolling over and whipsawing through the rest of November, December, and early January of this year.
– Then from the end of January 2022 through early March 2022 there was another solid rally in Gold that actually blasted back above $2000 and just fell short of taking out the all-time high. Many technicians saw this as a clear break through many layers of resistance (which it was); and this was at least bullish retesting of that overhead resistance level.
The reality is that the yellow metal failed to break through the all-time high and has been rejected back down the last few months once again. That’s really not a surprise as often the first attempt to break through resistance fails.
However, some technicians have warned that this could have been a double-top pattern (August 2020 at $2089 and March 2022 at $2078), warning that could have been all she wrote for this bull market. That is possible, but not as probable.
Other technicians however, have noted this does look like a smaller cup & handle pattern which would be bullish, and is succeeding the larger cup and handle pattern where the cup was Sept 2011 gold at $1921 and the August 2020 $2089 all-time high. Personally, my view is that we did just see a big cup complete from 2011 to 2020, and the little cup has happened in the handle of the larger C&H, where the low point in the mini-cup and handle at that $1673/$1675 double bottom, was low point of the larger handle that took about 2 years to complete. So it is still quite possible we’ll see a resolution out of the mini C&H pattern after we finish it’s several month handle, and then we’ll blast up out of both patterns surprising bulls and bears alike.
– Now we have seen yet another rally begin since mid May 2022 to Friday’s close in Gold, so it is encouraging but after the series of failed rallies seen over the last 2 years, as just pointed out, the burden of proof is still on the bulls shoulders to show that upside momentum can be maintained and that overhead resistance levels can be pierced through. As someone heavily invested in PM mining stocks, I’m definitely rooting for that outcome, and do believe the move out of these 2 cup & handle patterns (the big decade long one, and the smaller one from the last 2 years) could be explosive to the upside and break the Gold out to new all time highs and pull Silver and the mining stocks along with it for the ride.
Silver has still been lagging though, as have the PM mining stocks overall (especially the smaller juniors that are not really represented by the moves in the ETFs). Watching GDX and GDXJ are instructive for the overall trends in the mining stocks, but those ETFS have mostly larger to mid-tier bigger producers and largest of the development stories with the biggest market caps. The moves in the true Juniors though are often more volatile and extreme and will outperform GDX/GDXJ to the downside and the upside.
>> At this point both Silver and the PM mining stocks have still got much more work to do than the yellow metal with regards to overcoming chart damage and blazing a new trail higher. We’ll see how those sectors develop for the balance of June.
So while the move higher on Friday was nice to see, we’ve definitely been here before… over and over and over again… only to see these rallies get faded. Also as Jeff Christian pointed out, Silver actually outperformed almost all other sectors in Q1 of this year, even outperforming Gold, so some generalists are likely looking at the PMs in a different light, and noting their divergence from the other markets.
It is becoming more clear to the masses that inflation is staying persistently high, and technically just had it’s highest reading by a sliver on the CPI metrics. The allure of precious metals as a hedge to financial chaos may be starting to look more attractive to generalist investors, especially considering most sectors in the general markets have been tanking since Q3 or Q4 of last year and Gold has held it’s own and outperformed most other sectors. It would be great to see that trend of outperformance and divergence continue of the PMs over the general markets.
We’ll see how it goes, and this may just be another false breakout, but only time will tell. At least things moved to the upside to end the week, versus crashing with the other markets, so that is something to be optimistic about. Getting some continued follow through strength for the balance of June to close the month and the quarter would be the next step in the right direction.
Swing Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/mt2berap
Gold bottomed early. Markets late.
PMs and Markets together?
Next week the tell!
Thankfully, first miss (PMs). No one believes 100%…lol.
ok Ex….Getting through that thesis took me only two pots off coffee.. ..I agree with what you wrote and your summary….period… Friday AM I eventually pulled the trigger after waiting for the 30 minute confirmation…In my approach that is two consecutive closes over that 30 minute time frames OUL…oscillator unchange line….By the end of the day those miners had a big old bullish engulfing candle with large volume….
The gold commodity was a bit more tame…As such, I await further conformation and will juggle stops around using 10 minute bar volume spikes as support/resistance spots…I will not allow the nugt price to go negative on me……I prefer to reattempt a new entry rather than getting trapped…..Even if the second attempt costs me more…I just will pay up for that data…..That is me…
I really do not know what the miners will do Monday if the general equities remain weak……Many commentators are writing that we are weeks away from a market crash and that may be correct…..That seems like it would hit miners initially of course but would hasten the FED pivot…..You place your bets and take your chances…..
This whole market drama is very much like taking a single engine airplane toward the edge of its stalling characteristic….The plane gets mushy and strange feeling, then abruptly breaks hard right and drops like a rock……bammm….The pilot relaxes on the controls and the plane corrects its pitch automatically and recovers….Do not fight the plane or the FED…..glta
Well-stated Larry, and thank you for the kind words and feedback, as well as sharing your technical outlook with us over which time horizons on the shorter duration charts. Also, the markets going up and potentially hitting their resistance and buying exhaustion, similar to a single engine plane hitting it’s stall point was a good analogy.
Yes, some nice big engulfing candles in many mining stocks on Friday’s action are encouraging, and it will be instructive to see what kind of follow-through we may or may not see this next week and over the next few weeks to close up the month of June and the 2nd quarter.
I’ll keep this response more brief so it may only require a half cup of coffee versus 2 more pots of coffee. Haha! 😉
Your contributions to the technical discussions here are much appreciated.
You two guys just reminded me of my known unknowns.
That reminds me of the Zen saying:
“It seems that I know that I know, but what I would like to see, is the I that knows me, when I know that I know that I know…”
I’m also reminded of Bob M’s book:
Nobody Knows Anything
‘This Rally Hasn’t Even Started Yet’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (06/11/2022)
Felder is correct. The move that’s setting up is very likely going to be much better than any we’ve seen in many years.
In 2015/16, SPX fell about 60% versus HUI and then did roughly the same in 2018-2020. Technically/fundamentally, a greater fall looks probable over the next 1-2 years.
SPX:HUI monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24HUI&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t8654166511c&a=1184947781&r=1654970880298&cmd=print
The monthly silver:copper chart hasn’t looked so good for silver in over 3 years…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24COPPER&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t9490182840c&a=1029108470&r=1654971578751&cmd=print
GDM:CRB also looks ready for a big turn but will probably take some time to complete the turn…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t1314228434c&a=1121408581&r=1654972477250&cmd=print
Uranium forecast with Rick Rule, Daniel Major, Nick Hodge, and Fabi Lara.
Uranium Market Minute – Episode 137: A Sense of Where We Stand
Justin Huhn – Uranium Insider – June 9, 2022
Will SPUT Sell its Uranium? | John Ciampaglia Interview
Resource Talks – June 10, 2022
Lyn Alden: The Economy Is Crashing Into Stagflation
Wealthion – June 10, 2022
Lyn doesn’t get it either: “Fed tightening until something breaks.” ??? No, the Fed is tightening because the market is forcing it to. As I’ve mentioned at least 2 or 3 times before, the Fed has never ended a rate hike cycle with the Fed funds rate below the rate of inflation (as measured by the corrupted/understated CPI, of course). It has NOTHING to do with “breaking something” or how much distress the market feels.
https://goldseek.com/article/lyn-alden-fed-tightening-until-something-breaks
Personally I think Lyn gets it pretty well and is one of the sharper macroeconomic minds out there. If you listen to many of her interviews over the last year, she’s well aware that the market is forcing the Fed’s hand to hike rates to temper the rate of inflation.
Her point is that they are not going to get the Fed funds rate up above the rate of inflation (currently 8.6% from the reading on Friday) before something breaks in the market (likely a major correction in the general markets where there is a full on tantrum), if they attempted to take the Fed funds rate up to even half of that at 4.3% much less go all the way above that level to a 9% Fed funds rate. So, they’ll hike until something breaks and they need to pivot.
Currently they’ve only hiked 0.75% and the markets have already been falling apart, and they are slated to do two more 0.50% hikes in June and July which would take them up to a whopping 1.75% Fed funds rate. That is a far cry from 8.6%. The market is pricing in about a 70% chance of another 0.50% hike in September, but that would only take them up to 2.25% Fed funds rate, which still would have things in a major negative real rates environment for the foreseeable future.
Their debt service load on just the interest on their balance sheet would be completely unserviceable if they took their rates up to 4.3% (just half the latest CPI), much less 8.6% or higher. There will be a choke point far before that where they can no longer hike and will need to “pause.” Then likely after doing nothing for a period (being “data dependent”) they will admit they need to begin reliquifying the markets with more QE bond buying or that they’ll actually need to reverse course and start cutting rates again (maybe as soon as early 2023).
That’s what tells me she doesn’t get it. There will be no “pivot” until the Fed funds rate matches the CPI and to think there will be is to get stuck in the familiar recent past while simultaneously showing a misunderstanding of the recent past. It is also a bet that this time is different than every other time of the last 70 years. With respect to this particular issue, this time is almost certainly not different. Btw, rates don’t rise to “temper inflation” they rise to account for it. That’s a big difference. Rates rise for the same reason gold does. Neither one rises to temper or otherwise inhibit or halt inflation. The Fed must get a kick (as well as some utility) out of that widespread belief. The price of capital is going up just like everything else and the Fed’s history is clear. It doesn’t pivot because something broke, it simply stops hiking when the FFR reaches CPI and there’s not one example of a different course in nearly 70 years. An awful lot of people like to assume that they know what the Fed is really concerned about and the vast majority of them are wrong.
My guess is that hikes will run into next year before taking a break and it will happen when the CPI falls sharply from its current reading, perhaps to 5-6% or a little less. Prices won’t fall much if at all, they’ll just stop rising at the current rate and for a limited time. The FFR will then probably be put on hold, not cut. Much more inflation is coming longer term and therefore much higher interest rates are coming. The bond market is more important than the stock market so there’s little incentive to attempt to “pivot” early and for the first time ever.
Something already broke.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=Q&yr=50&mn=11&dy=0&id=p00612138513&a=1185483517&r=1655096499093&cmd=print
Interesting thoughts to consider Matthew. It is odd to think it would be different this time, as that old investing quote goes “It’s never different this time.” Still I’d be very surprised if the Fed can get their Fed funds rate higher than the CPI without having to pause and pivot, unless that metric starts trending down rapidly due to the base effect from year over year comparables. That would allow them to get their funds rate up over the inflation rate, but even that seems dubious based on how things are set up at present. Food for thought though.
I should have stated that it is the Fed narrative being fed to the markets that they believe (and have convinced main stream financial media) that they are hiking their Fed funds rate to “fight” or “tamp down inflation.” I agree that rates were going to rise regardless when inflation headed up, because of investors fleeing and selling their bonds. Why in the world would anyone want to hold bonds when they are being eroded by at least 8.6% inflation (but in reality double digit pricing inflation). Interest rates started going up dramatically faster when the Fed finished their tapering and quit injecting $120 billion monthly on buying bonds, so not a surprise at all to see interest rates ratcheting higher on the bond bubble popping.
Jayant talked briefly about a project in the Yukon that needed a massive leach pad and suggested it would never get permitted. Anybody have a clue about what mine/project that is and which miner is involved? I must admit that discussion has given me great pause.
Was Jayant talking about Victoria Gold’s Project 250 for Eagle Gold Mine?
Hi Mike – When we were talking about Yukon briefly before the call and were discussing investment by majors and I brought up Rio’s investment in Western Copper & Gold at the Casino Project, but then we discussed the large capex that would be needed and the large tailings facility that would be needed.
Ex – thanks! I found Project 250 via google but there was no sense that it was huge. I’ll go read about this one. Thanks again!
I have a small position in Western that is happily in the green but if that gets hung up then that company really don’t have anything else to move too – hmmmmmm!
Yeah, I consider everyone’s opinion but take it all with a grain of salt as nobody really knows where the hurtles will be that stall projects, nor can they anticipate solutions that may present themselves.
Personally I’ve been trading in and out of Western Copper and Gold for years and already recognized the mineral wealth in the ground was undervalued a few years back, but counterbalanced with the reality that it was remote and had a high capex, so it needed to be big with scale, but those aspects also limited the potential suitors needed to make it work.
When Rio Tinto came in as key strategic investor, that was a solid endorsement by one of the true big boys in the mining space. I’m sure their team did far more research, due diligence, considered different scenarios, and did more trouble-shooting than any retail investors are capable of doing before vetting their project. I doubt they’d have taken that position of they didn’t think the project was viable, so there is that point of view to consider.
Ex – thanks again – I have a very small position and actually was thinking of adding to it. I appreciate the point about Rio Tinto and that makes sense. Having driven past their huge Chino copper mine in southern NM I see that they have deep pockets. I think that they only own about 8% of Western so they may be waiting to see it de-risked before buying to out.
I know a lot of investors and newsletter writers believe The CPI numbers that come out of the bureau of mismanagement. They must believe them because they continually refer to them in their conversation and in their reporting. The official inflation numbers don’t include food and housing which are the two most important contributors to inflation after energy.
For the last twenty years I have watched the inflation in housing skyrocket where I live. In 1999 a typical family home where I am has gone up in price from four hundred thousand dollars to three million now. I was in a health food store the other day and people looked at me with awe when I suggested that runaway inflation was the reason. They of course were home owners who believed that the market was deciding the price, and would never believe that Central Bank money printing was the culprit. They cared little about the effect this has on society.
I could go on at lengths about the price increases I see across the board in commodities everyday, but it would be a waste of time. The inflation rate in Canada is probably about three to four times the amount that The Government figures state. I don’t want to list what The Government’s statistics say because it is all total rubbish. DT
I should have added that Central Bank money printing and zero interest rates were the the culprits in the housing crisis. DT
DT – On this: “I should have added that Central Bank money printing and zero interest rates were the the culprits in the housing crisis.” we totally agree.
I have been a subscriber to Bill Fleckenstein’s site for years and he has been saying for a long, long time that this would end in stagflation and here we are. The amount of “malinvestment” in our economy is massive and won’t be cleaned out for a long time.
Worry About Stagflation, A Flashback To ’70s, Begins To Grow
By Paul Wiseman, AP Economics Writer – Wednesday June 8, 2022
“Stagflation. It was the dreaded “S word” of the 1970s. For Americans of a certain age, it conjures memories of painfully long lines at gas stations, shuttered factories and President Gerald Ford’s much-ridiculed ‘Whip Inflation Now’ buttons.”
This week, the World Bank raised the specter of stagflation in sharply downgrading its outlook for the global economy. “The world economy is again in danger,” the anti-poverty agency warned. “This time, it is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. … It’s a phenomenon — stagflation — that the world has not seen since the 1970s.’’
And last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen invoked the word in remarks to reporters:
“The economic outlook globally,” Yellen said, “is challenging and uncertain, and higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world.”
Hi Mike, like you and Ex state statistics can lie and can be manipulated, but it is amazing how so many educated people fall for the reporting that comes out of the mainstream media. Education is lost on most people who never learn to think for themselves. The vaccine is a prime example and if you watch mainstream media even to this day, they still show people getting the “JAB”. DT
Right on, DT, we’re living an episode of The Twilight Zone. Those most harmed by the psychopaths are the first to defend them and chastise or even demonize the truthtellers. The worst among us truly believe they’re the best and most virtuous/righteous. The funny thing is, it’s never been different throughout history; it’s just never been so obvious.
Hi Matthew, in the twilight zone if you make a deal with the devil he will give you anything you want in exchange for your life. The devil knows that the afterlife for the people who accept that deal is an eternity of boredom that you can’t escape. DT
@ Matthew
Re “we’re living an episode of The Twilight Zone”
Translated into the real world it means we’re living in the cult of the 2 MARRIED pink elephants — read https://www.rolf-hefti.com/covid-19-coronavirus.html
Thanks Nadine.
Hi DT and agreed. People reference the CPI numbers because they are the government metrics that the markets and computer algorithms use to react to the trending direction of inflation. People subtract the CPI rate of inflation from the 10-year treasury yield to reference where inflation adjusted real rates are at.
That aside, most legit economists, analysts, and newsletter writers totally understand and are very aware that those CPI numbers are massaged and underreport the true rate of pricing increases as a result of inflation. The true rate of pricing increases was already well over 2%, based on the 1970’s and 1980’s metrics for calculating inflation (like John Williams at Shadowstats has covered for so long) when the Fed proclaimed they had a goal of getting CPI inflation up to 2%.
That very point has been mentioned by many folks here and elsewhere for many years…. long before the CPI started “officially” running higher over the last year and a half.
At this point with CPI coming in at 8.6% it is telling enough (and damning enough) to just use that figure, because so many market pundits, articles, and news reports are keying off of that metric in conversation. We use it for ease of reference and because it is current and topical from reporting, without constantly having to put the addendum on it each time that actually the percentage of pricing increases is actually double digits and much higher, because CPI doesn’t account for all areas affecting consumers daily life.
Once in a while on the show we’ll make that point about true pricing inflation being much higher than what is reported in the CPI, but it is taxing to do it every single time the topic comes up.
I recall shows last year and this year (with Craig Hemke, Brien Lundin, John Rubino, Peter Boockvar, Jesse Felder, Dave Erfle, and Dave Kranzler) where we pointed out this disparity around the actual rate of increases versus what the lowball CPI reading denotes in those conversations.
This topic has also been discussed here on the blog many times, so most people really do have that understanding that the CPI is a bit of a half-baked farce. Regardless it is the number that even the mind numb generalists on main stream financial media or even regular media use to refer to pricing increases due to inflationary pressures, so it gets referenced in that sense as the most common measuring stick used.
It’s a good point to reiterate though DT, for folks that may be reading this and considering it for the first time.
Inflation Leaves The Fed With A Smaller Window To Avoid Recession
Bill Stone – Forbes – Jun 12, 2022
“Stocks took it on the chin last week as the market repriced the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can tame inflation and avoid a recession. May consumer inflation (CPI) hit a forty-year high at 8.6% year-over-year, while economists expected the level to hold steady at 8.3%. In addition, the level of “sticky” inflation, which will be more difficult to curb, rose to 5.2% year-over-year.”
Copper, particularly in its’ technical picture looks precarious here—-if it breaks down, it’s probably signalling a deeper recession then we are already in. Also, if it breaks down, it’s probably signalling a peaking of some of the other commodities excepting food and energy.
Hi Doc. Thanks for the heads up and technical outlook on the red metal.
While there are still very bullish supply/demand fundamentals for Dr. Copper by all accounts, a developing recession could impact the demand side of the picture some.
One thing that may support Copper prices is that the mining supply side is a real mess currently with lots of big existing projects getting long in the tooth or facing anti-mining sentiment in South America and Indonesia. Look at the cluster mess than Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, and Colombia have become in the last few years which all have copper projects in production or at the development stage. Heck even in Alaska here in the US they’ve had a series of repeated stalls and permitting snafus on copper development projects from Northern Dynasty’s Pebble, to Constantine’s Palmer VMS project, and now even Trilogy’s Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects .
If the world really wants to electrify all the emerging market countries, and build out the infrastructure needed for electric car charging stations in many of the developed nations in the East or West, then the world is going to need a crapton more Copper supply, and it’s hard to see at present where that is going to come from to meet those needs. As Robert Freidland has quipped a number of times if the initiatives so many greenies are laying out are to be taken seriously, then there is going to be a “Revenge of the Miners” as there is going to have to be mines that are allowed to go into production and a rising of pricing to incentivize new projects to come online.
Even if there is some shorter-term pressure on the commodities and copper due to a recession, medium-term to longer-term there is still much higher to run for the whole commodities sector and I could easily see Copper getting back above $5 in a year and likely into the $6-$7 range in 2-3 years.
In the near-term, another factor driving the weakness in Copper prices is also the Chinese zero-tolerance covid policies. We’ve had a number of guests mention this on the KER show over the last month or two and that doesn’t look to be letting up anytime soon either.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Copper Price Extends Decline On Renewed China Lockdowns And Recession Fears
Mining.com – June 10, 2022
“Copper is coming under several sorts of pressure. The lockdowns aren’t ending as quickly as hoped and China’s zero-covid policy is very damaging for economic growth,” said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at exchange-traded fund provider WisdomTree.
“You’ve also got central banks in other parts of the world maintaining a very hawkish tilt and that puts into question whether economic growth outside of China is going to decelerate faster.”
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-extends-decline-on-renewed-china-lockdowns-and-recession-fears/
Chile Government To Consider Copper Producers’ Cost Variations In New Royalty Bill
Reuters | June 10, 2022
Peru Communities To Allow Las Bambas Copper Mine Restart After 51-Day Shutdown
Reuters | June 9, 2022
“A group of indigenous Peruvian communities on Thursday agreed to temporarily lift a protest against MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine that forced the company to halt operations for more than 50 days, the longest in the mine’s history.”
“According to meeting minutes signed on Thursday afternoon, the truce will last thirty days and the communities and the mine will engage in talks during that time.”
https://www.mining.com/web/peru-communities-say-will-grant-truce-allow-las-bambas-mine-restart/
In the segment with Jayant, we talked about jurisdiction risks, and only covered Canada, US, and Mexico in this first segment, and while there are land mines in every country to avoid, I’d be far more concerned about South American countries like Chile or Peru than many other areas, and it would take special situation projects for me to put much more capital to work in either country, barring the limited exposure I already have. It’s a shame as there are some interesting copper and silver projects in both countries, but the political risk as well as the risk of nationalization is far too high at this point until something changes in their views and laws around the mining sector.
Even though some investors have been trying to get hip to Ecuador, as they try to get things turned around, I’ve not been overly impressed with the pace of those projects getting restarted either, or the local pushback to mining, so it’s a no for me personally as well.
Colombia is a mixed bag where there are some good projects on the go, but also a lot of local communities creating issues for mining companies and pushing back on permitting and development of a number of projects, so it really comes down to gaining the social license on a local level.
Conversely, I actually feel pretty good about Bolivia, especially for Silver and base metals like Zinc, Lead, Tin, Copper. Companies like Eloro, New Pacific, Silver Elephant, and Andean Precious Metals are leading the charge there lately, and I’m sure we’ll see more companies focus on Bolivia.
I also still will invest in Brazil, and despite it’s challenges, there are a number of projects moving forward there. My largest investment in Brazil is still with Jaguar Mining and I still believe over time they’ll surprise people as they are gradually getting their ship turned around. Also Equinox Gold still has a solid basket of production and development assets in Brazil so I’ve got exposure to those. There are some other good development projects in the works and a few other gold & base metals producers still making things happen in this country.
Another South American country showing some promise the last few years is Guyana. There are some new explorers focused on the Guyana Shield, like the interview we just did with Golden Shield. That Guyana shield is a good analog to the West African gold mining zones, that has similar geology from when those 2 continents used to be adjacent to one another, and Guyana is much less explored and shows a lot of potential using modern practices. Also as a South American nation Guyana is far less problematic than many of the other countries aforementioned.
In Central America, I’ve got exposure to Nicaragua through both Calibre and Mako Mining, and both companies have been doing great the last 2 years on expanding operations and having exploration success. The country is a bit of mess, but the mining companies are providing good jobs, training, roads, power/water/health services, so despite some naysayers, they are doing more good than harm.
As for Guatemala, I’m not too encouraged by the anti-mining pressure that Bluestone Resources has been under at their mine development project, the pushback that Volcanic Gold has received for just drilling some good holes, or the languishing Escobal project that Pan American holds there that can’t seem to get off the mat. I’m rooting that all 3 projects will continue to move forward, because geologically it looks very prospective. However, there is a lot of lobbyist money flowing in from outside the area to try and shape the local communities thinking against mining, which is unfortunate, as they could use the jobs and foreign investment capital to improve their quality of life.
As for the rest of Central America, I’m not that interested in touching most other countries like Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, or Belize as they are train wrecks at present.
Overall, as a general statement, I actually like West Africa much better in many respects than Latin America. There have been a number of companies that have actually been taken over by larger producers that had nice runs (True Gold, Gryphon, Avnel, Savary, Teranga, Semafo, Roxgold) and a few more that I believe will be taken over (like Orezone, Montage, Newcore Gold, Sarama, and maybe even producers like Galiano or West African Resources).
Also the permitting process and pathway to development is far better in West Africa than most other areas of the planet, where many mines have made it into production far easier than in most of North or South America or Europe. Obviously it’s dependent on the national and local government policies, and there are still legit areas of concern from extremist cells, so it is not without risk. It just seems investors snub their nose at African mining companies as “too risky,” and then pile into projects in the Americas that get stalled for much longer or have just as much NIMBY pushback from the radical environmentalists. As a result many African mining stocks trade at big discounts to mining stocks in the Americas, but this is also why they’ve had so many more takeovers because they have more attractive valuations for ounces in the ground and often much better economics.
We seem to be forgetting about Lupaka – how many years has that blockade of the Corina project in Peru been going on? Peru has simply refused to do anything about the blockade and it appears that the people running it are actively mining the resource. So, the Peruvian gov appears to be actively supporting the theft of that mine.
Am I missing something? Why do folks ignore this situation?
Good point Mike, and another in a long string of reasons to pass on Peru. There are a few interesting projects there I’d like to buy such as Regulus for copper, or for silver Aftermath Silver or maybe get back into Tier One Silver or Kuya Silver.
Right now the only exposure in my portfolio to Peru is through Sierra Metals (polymetallic producer of copper, zinc, silver, lead, and gold) , and a few of the royalty companies I hold.
We are having terrible weather here, it is damp but sticky and cool but warm. Ex, I’m glad you broke down mining risk by country rather than jurisdiction, it really makes a lot of sense. I feel that Bolivia is also a country that I like and invest in. I think you are still one of the boys even though your role has changed here. Keep up the good work. DT
Thanks DT. Yeah, it is good to start looking at thing by country for their national tax/royalty situation, permitting process and timelines, how many projects are operating or being developed, is their a state run opposition to mining, etc…. but then really it comes down to what part of the country regional/local is the project working and what is the social license on the ground.
Group Ten Metals (SYL-PGE) have rebranded their name to Stillwater Critical Minerals. I think this will be a positive move towards getting this company some much needed recognition. DT
Gold update!
Nothing has changed and all lower targets if abc and fibs will only point higher.
Continue Glens trend and we are headed up as I told you weeks ago… if you like my calls please be kind enough to to say thank you 🙂
We had are retracement hit and now we will pull back overnight and head higher within this compulsive move.. Targetvtemains the same explosive jume high!!! For you who follow me go back and check my target for June.
Here it $$1981 precise give or take.. even if we don’t get as high we are going higher for the following July month. Not lower!!!!!! Please take the time to be thankful not just for my lost or other technicians. Always remember the direction remains bullish unless we have major reversal. All is gold miners will join very soon.
Glen
Glenfidish – thanks for sharing your technical outlook here with the KER crew. Cheers!
Thanks Glen!
Thanks Glenster!
I’m hopeful and watching, though I’m not certain I will be adding more than I already have at the present moment.
Good luck everyone! It would be satisfying to see an upward push from here.
The HUI bottomed last September when it tested the 200 week MA. It finally retested that low when it retested the 200 week MA (without even reaching the January low).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69594972088
It should come as no surprise that the silver stocks bottomed 32 weeks after the senior gold stocks since they topped in 2021 26 weeks after the senior golds topped in 2020.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42187896132
Both the gold and silver stocks had a great day on Friday while the stock market plunged and the 10 year yield jumped 3.62% which must have left a lot of myth promoters scratching their heads.
Copper is heading way below $4.00…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=t6428364734c&a=537266072&r=1655076965671&cmd=print
At best, we’re looking at dead money/big opportunity cost in copper.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p99931593382&a=1185404692
That doesn’t sound good for MUX Copper 3000m up the Andes in the middle of nowhere, needing several $B to develop.
It’s unlikely McEwen Mining will try to develop that Los Azules copper project on their own, as they can barely make it at all their mines as it is. They’ll either need to bring in a strategic partner and give up partial ownership, or sell that project to monetize it.
Good Copper charts Matthew. Based on where those 2 forks intersect, it looks like good support for Copper may down around $3.40. If we saw a pullback to around that level on the economic slowdown concerns, then that may be a good place to put on some more long positions with exposure to the red metal.
Longer term (18-24 months) I still anticipate Copper getting back up above $5 and making a run at the $6-$7 range, which would coincide with the next leg higher in the commodities complex.
The P&F chart price objective is $10.25 and I agree with it. For now, look out below.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p50435277143&a=1185444288
Yeah, a move down into the mid $3’s for Copper seems quite likely, but wow I wasn’t expecting an upside target of $10 (that you mentioned from the point & figure chart). Really anything over $5 and heading into $6-$7 will absolutely light the copper mining sector on fire at that point.
For now, on the pullback, I’ve greatly reduced my Copper positions from 9 stocks down to 4 at present (just 2 explorers, Kodiak & Libero, and 2 producers, Sierra and Atico). I mean there are some other Gold stocks I hold with some copper exposure too (like McEwen discussed above, or Troilus). In addition the silver explorer Metallic Minerals (Alexco’s neighbors) also have a 2nd property down in Colorado that just put out a billion ounce copper eq. resource. Also, Group Ten (now Stillwater Critical Minerals) has a healthy copper component to their Nickel/PGM deposit. Still overall, there are only 4 stocks more linked to the pricing in copper as their main drivers in my basket, so if there is a big corrective move in the metal, hopefully I don’t get hit too bad. Also the 2 explorers will still move somewhat based on how well their drill assays are that get released over the next 3-6 months.
Regardless, reviewing the potential slide that copper may see will have me hold off for a while trying to catch any falling knives as some of the related mining stocks may pull back down in sympathy. Also if copper gets back down to the mid $3’s then at that point it may be a good idea to put my COPX position back on again for a reversal at that point.
Markets looking dicey for Monday. Bitcoin clobbered pre-mkt, red predominant color of fear
Bitcoin has a long way to go before it finds a bear market low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p41111482730&a=1185465934
Wow! Bitcoin is really falling out of bed here Monday morning.
Here is a Year-To-Date Performance Chart of Gold and Bitcoin, and it’s pretty clear which one is acting like a safe haven and which one is acting like a speculative instrument under pressure.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1hae3bt-GBTC%20Bitcoin%20versus%20Gold%20YTD.JPG
It’s interesting that last year when Bitcoin was hitting $69,000 in mid-November, so many pundits had 6 digit expectations for the king of crypto for 2022 – with some prominent pundits like Max Keiser expecting $220,000, (and he was not alone).
If they had just dropped this projection by a decimal point, and made it $22,000 then it would have been a pretty close estimate from last year, becauses BTC was just in the $23,700 – $23,900 range this morning.
That is a drop of over 65% from the all time high just 7 months ago in Bitcoin, so it’s pretty clear that it is no “store of value” nor is it an “inflation hedge,” as so many were parroting not too long ago.
I remember one day towards the end of last year where Anthony Pompliano was ragging on Gold versus Bitcoin where gold was down 2% while bitcoin was up like 5% and he had tweeted out to his many followers something along the lines of “Bitcoin up today while gold is down… choose your hedge carefully.”
Some people had tweeted back that one day doesn’t make a market, but I’m sure in his snide way, he didn’t even read or consider those comments, so convinced he had the high ground. He went on a number of financial shows as a guest suggesting Bitcoin was the superior inflation hedge over Gold. The crypto kiddies ate it all up… now they are getting indigestion and barfing it up.
The year-to-date chart of 2022 in both Gold and Bitcoin tells a much different story over the first half of this year, as inflation has ratcheted higher and higher to levels not seen in over 41 years. This isn’t just one day’s trading action either, it’s half this year.
>> His line was correct “Choose your hedge carefully…”, but he chose poorly.
http://www.thehouseworkcanwait.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/he-chose-poorly1.gif
The only thing worse than the herd being in agreement is the experts being in agreement since they influence a lot of retail money.
Raoul Pal proved he’s no expert when he had Peter Schiff and another gust on and had no idea how the Fed was responsible for inflation. Peter was shocked and couldn’t hide his amusement (laughter). Raoul must’ve taken a serious beating since this euphoric tweet in which he was clearly certain he was right:
https://twitter.com/SNKRgenOfficial/status/1454040892747120645
Yeah, I’d have to agree with you there Matthew, even though I really like Raoul and have been following his interviews on Real Vision for a number of years, but some of the track he’s been on the last 2 years has been quite puzzling. Last year he mentioned selling most of his gold, going all in on Bitcoin and Ethereum and Defi. Then he did a few interview clearly not understanding the root of inflation being the excessive increase in money supply. He was also more in the inflation will be transitory camp last year, which was a real head-scratcher from someone as intelligent as he is.
Next he repeatedly did not understand that the Bonds were going to get creamed when the Fed stopped their propping up of the market with $120 billion per month of accommodative buying, so when all the tapering discussion happened he was on the wrong side of the boat. Then he doubled down on being long bonds, which made little sense, especially in the face of ripping inflation to the upside where nobody in their right mind would want to own them due to erosion from high inflationary forces.
I’ll just point out that his intelligence is not the issue. There are plenty of extremely smart people that that are not wired for the markets or economics or charting, etc. I’ve run into more than a few that are basically handicapped when it comes to investing.
Sure. Agreed. I guess, previous to the last 2 years, Raoul seemed like the kind of guy that was wired for finances, economics, charting, and investing and successfully managed large multi-million dollar funds and was considered by many to be a leading thought leader in macro economics and investing. He just adopted some odd philosophical frameworks on how he expected things to unfold and got wrong-footed on Gold, Cryptos, and Bonds and then doubled down on those ideas instead of admitting he misread the setup.
Oh well, it happens to a lot of high net worth whale investors, and then they become more lower to mid net worth porpoises, than need to see if they can get back in the swing of it. Wishing Raoul the best, but glad I didn’t get swept up into blind acceptance of the Real Vision narrative like so many investors did, as it has likely cost them greatly. I’ll be interested to see how he looks at things moving forward, because even talented individuals (sports heroes, film stars, entrepreneurs, titans of industry) fall down once in a while, but the ones that learn from that experience, dust themselves off, and rise again have my respect.
In light of all the BLATANT signs of a saturated mania/bubble, I do have to question his market knowledge big time. I have never seen another market so full to the brim with dumb money and that’s because there’s never been one, not even in the 1630s in Holland! Just who in the world did he think was going to keep pushing BitNothing higher when everyone foolish enough to buy had already done so?
Since I never go to movies, I had no idea about the Matt Damon adds last year (around the time of Raoul’s tweet). Talking about ringing a bell at the top yet he ignored it and even got completely caught up in it. Raoul possesses dumb money attributes from several angles including the hallmark inability to recognize his own dumb money decisions. I’m sure he recognizes his mistakes, I just doubt that he considers them dumb money mistakes.
“Damon was famously a spokesperson for the website in a highly-publicized commercial, which you may have seen playing at movie theaters beginning fall of last year, encouraging investors that “fortune favors the brave.”
Wow.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/crypto-com-lays-off-260-employees-everyone-blames-matt-damon/ar-AAYprn7?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=96acb558b71c464fd05d2c84c5245192
Yes, the Matt Damon Superbowl commercials endorsing cryptos, along with Tom Brady having “Laser Eyes”, Elon Musk pushing around joke altcoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu with mere texts, and Michael Sailors god-complex, were all signs of a bell ringing in the crypto froth.
To your point, I’ve also never seen anything as frothy as 2020 going into mid 2021 either after over 2 decades trading the markets.
It really started getting silly when we saw the “Stay At Home Stocks” like Peloton, Zoom, Paypal, Squarespace, Shopify, and Teledoc Health start spiking after the pandemic, and a rush of new biotech “Vaccine Stocks” where it appeared the markets no longer cared about valuations or earnings. When we’d ask generalist guests about this the mantra we heard back was that “Valuations don’t matter… until they do.” Well, I guess now they do. 😉
Then we saw Growth stocks become all the rage, typified by Cathy Woods Ark Innovation Fund, where it was growth to the moon and valuations at multiples that were laughable. Investors said don’t fight the trend and only knew one thing… “buy the dip!”. These investors were not smart or savvy, they were just in the blow-off top of one of the longest running bull markets in memory.
Next we saw all those Unicorn IPO and then the creation of SPACS which was showing the unbridled speculative fervor that had taken over the markets. Truly nutty stuff.
Then there was the “meme stocks” craze where throngs of retail investors had just opened up trading accounts on Robinhood, WeBull, and Stash platform and were using those messaging platforms along with WallStreetBets and Reddit to simply trade bankrupt companies based on outsized short positions. That all started with reviving Hertz rental car from bankrupt to vitality once again, and then they did it with Gamestop, AMC Entertainment, Blackberry, and Bed Bath and Beyond.
Then there was the whole “Reopening Stocks” narrative last year where people were all jacked up on hospitality and travel stocks, and consumer discretionary, etc… because we were going to see all this growth to infinity and beyond now the world was “open” again. Those market pundits failed to consider the reality for most families though, after 2 years of lockdowns, the destruction of small businesses and their staffs from ongoing riots burning over 60 US cities and terrible covid policies, or that people that just quit working and were living off savings, etc… The “reopening trade” was just a little bit of a sugar high that fizzled right out by the 3rd quarter of last year, and was more market hopium than a realistic sustainable trend.
Finally by November of last year we saw the insane craze in all things digitial – Cryptocurrencies, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) companies, and the insanity around NFTs head to an epic parabolic move higher of sheer frothy speculative exuberance. The digital speculative trades topped right around that time in sympathy with the largest tech companies including the FAANGS and Tesla and Social Media stocks finally topped. That was all she wrote and while many sectors were already correcting by Q3 of 2021 and the market breadth was troubling, by Q4 the final holdouts rolled over and have been crashing down ever since then in a big market implosion.
That was all very “late cycle” and “end-of-cycle” nonsense, and it had a been a long time coming to finally bite off more than it could chew. Even the dimmest bulbs in the financial media and social media pundits started to realize that the valuations were way up in the stratosphere and most companies had no business trading where they were. This all synched up nicely with inflation ratcheting higher and higher each month from last year into this year, with the Fed starting it’s tapering of accommodative bond buying QE after 12 years of “emergency” market intervention, and then they kicked off their rate hiking cycle this year in March, and after only 2 hikes we are seeing bear markets across the board in most sectors.
None of this implosion of sectors or investors getting spanked hard is very surprising. In a way, this is actually a very good thing to have let some air out of the speculative “everything bubble” over the last 8-10 months. The crazy thing is that some markets really aren’t that oversold on the longer duration charts yet, so there is likely more pain in store for generalist investors.
Hopefully they all got rich trading Stay At Home Stocks, Reopening Stocks, Meme Stocks, Growth Stocks, NFTs, Cryptos, SPACs, etc… because by last year, everyone was suddenly a genius investor, and had Lambos on their minds. Maybe all the newly minted Twitter millionaires can weather the ongoing storm, but it’s quite likely that trillions of dollars of speculative capital has been lit on fire and incinerated over the last year. It’s not clear where all the money will come from to fuel the markets to new highs and keep the everything bubble inflated.
Ex, Canuck and chartster thank you kindly and hope y’all are doing well including Jerry, Dan from Calgary and Anne who i have not seen post in sometime. Hope all is well and soon enough we can ride the gravy train to the sunset 😃
Matthew great charts by the way! Also wanted to make a note that your probably the first or one of very few who put that bear market number for Bitcoin precisely we’re it is engraved in my head. Even garoth the big Bitcoin technician has used 12,500 as a final low I believe. Interesting enough you’re comes right at that zone we’re I did some math and seems bang on! The question will be does it get there this year or next?
Thanks
Thanks for the tips Glen… I think that the USD will climb more until the chart breaks and investors will have no choice but go back to the PMs because bad govy policy will kill all most markets.
I can hear the jingle mail already…
Can Nat Gas hold it’s high euro pricing? HND, goes up while nat gas drops.
BTW, I am over 20% of my portfolio is in HND now, that could change quickly but I am confident in my call… all IMHO only.
USD chart on an upswing.
Hey, my post turned up 6 hours later, haha!
I sold over half my HND at $2.26 and bought some DEF and BRAU but still have some cash.
Glen, I admire your optimism, but You are wrong. TPTB will never again allow PM shares to rally any faster than the conventional markets. I have had my shares for almost twelve years and I am still down 40% on them. the PM shares have been, by far the WORST investment, I have ever made. Hopefully I will Get my money back in nominal terms during the next decade. I Will then sell them all never to return to this sector. NEVER. I Will continue holding my physical stack to pass them on to my children and grandchildren.
If you’d had your mining shares for 12 years, then it sounds like you bought “high” during peak enthusiasm of the last bull cycle, didn’t sell to limit downside selling by taking appropriate risk management precautions. It is also clear by your comment that you also never bought any mining stocks when they were priced “low” during peak pessimism (like Dec 2015-Jan/Feb 2016, or the Fall of 2018, or the Spring of 2019, or the pandemic crash of 2020, or the lows in Sept or December of 2021 last year, or during this recent rout).
It’s not the sectors fault if you personally timed your trades poorly, and didn’t take action to limit downside, or pounce on good buying opportunities. There have been plenty of tradable rallies over the last 6 years where many mining stocks went up 50%-1000% for windows of time, so those were hardly the worst trades ever.
We discussed it on here for many many years that these mining stocks are rarely buy and holds and are part of a volatile cyclical sector, and thus wise investors buy the dips and sell the rips, utilize technical analysis, and don’t sit as bagholders for a dozen years after having bought near the top.
U.S. Futures Slide Amid Inflation Concerns, Fed Meeting Expectations
Scott Kanowsky – Jun 13, 2022
“U.S. futures slipped early Monday after major indices on Wall Street posted their worst week since January. The indices fell last week as concerns over soaring prices mounted following the release of the latest U.S. inflation reading. May’s U.S. consumer price index came in at 8.6% – the highest reading since 1981.”
“In the space of a few days, markets have gone from optimism that inflation might be on the cusp of plateauing, to rising apprehension that we could not only see higher prices, but that prices might well remain higher for a lot longer than originally thought,” wrote CMC Markets Chief Markets Analyst Michael Hewson in a note on Monday.
World Stocks Near Fresh 2022 Lows On Inflation Fears
Saikat Chatterjee -Reuters – Jun 13, 2022
“World stocks fell towards fresh 2022 lows and the Japanese yen slid to levels not seen in nearly a quarter of a century on Monday as red-hot U.S. inflation fueled worries about even more aggressive policy tightening in a big week for central banks.”
“The substantially higher-than-expected U.S. CPI print on Friday was hard to digest for investors, who sold both bonds and equities and quashed expectations that policymakers were starting to gain the upper hand in capping soaring prices.”
Watch out for a Margin backlash onto mining stocks as it has happened over and over during selloffs in General markets. I would suspect Retail are the bag holders again, including Crypto. Another Monday attack in the making..
I just looked at a few miner’s premarket pricing and the “spreads” look abnormal. Sometimes they put wide spreads to just be a place holder. But these seem more intentional across the Sector. Too low to sell and too high to buy. Let’s see what happens at open… spreads just add to the feeling of “orchestration”.
Some spreads are closing in but still heavy to the downside in the bids. I expect open will be a lot red.
Rick Ackerman yesterday:
https://www.rickackerman.com/2022/06/esm22-june-e-mini-sps-last3907/
“The elevator appears full … however the waterfall is available for those with more spirit” 🙂
How To Survive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpnnfuSYv78
Lakedweller2 – that statement about the elevator being full but the waterfall being available gave me a chuckle. Thanks, I needed that on a day like this. Cheers! 🙂
His TNX target was hit this morning.
Hard to find a bear out there on the gold sector, with the action of the metal consolidating in the 1850 area and providing hope of the past year or more. Me included, but mindful of the possibility I posted few days back.
jonsyl
Jun 09, 2022 09:13 AM
Larry thought cross my mind, that the sticky action around this 1850 level while silver and the producers big and small deteriorate is nothing more than hook. Hope not as I’m down about 15% on my half positon in an assortment of these. Bought when gold was scrapping just above1800.
Will wait it out.
Reply
larry
Jun 09, 2022 09:15 AM
Jonsyl..My day GDX has all sorts of support at 30.4 down to 29.29…basically that 5/12/22 swing low looks to want a retest…hope it will be light volume and reverses hard…and that is it…boom…..or if the reversal happens first in the morning one needs to pull trigger before volume is a clue..either way it could be important weekly type of low/ or not……glta
Reply
jonsyl…i am out of my nugt now…i hesitated my entry on friday deferring to the 30 minute confirmation level… however,regardless…this may be a peak in inflation being sniffed out and whether important or not the dollar rallies as Euro collapses…must now call Fridays action a single leg A up…They are defined by an immediate chart appropriate reversal….now wait for this trading cycle low to come into focus again…FED WED?…possible/likely…
I added Midnight Sun Mining, Guanjuato Silver and Kraken Energy. Added to Honey Badger. Possibly will add to Empress.
Added a few to Empress. Account down -6.6% which is a normal Monday for me.
Added Hannan Metals for about the third time.
Added Erdene for 3rd time. I need to do a site visit.
nugt…10 minute showing a low vol retest…back in 43.43
Well, with PDAC kicking off today, once again we got the PDAC curse. Gotta love it! 😉
Doesn’t matter if it’s March or June. 🙄
I know right? What a way to kick off the largest mining conference on the planet… deep in the red.
The sad part is that a lot of companies held off releasing some of their best news until the end of last week or beginning of the this week and now it won’t matter as almost everything is getting flushed down the drain… the good, the bad, and now the ugly…
GDX is still holding! Strong if it doesn’t give up much from here.
Remaining PMs to new lows, but not deep.
Far from breaking May.
Good point BDC. We aren’t seeing GDX break to new 52 week lows like so many other sectors are, so in comparison, not as bad as so many other areas of the markets. Also Gold and Silver have held up pretty good, all things considered, and as a result have diverged from the rest of the general markets, which is actually what we want to see.
The market must believe that Friday’s great action was mostly due to the CPI news so it makes sense that the gain is getting fully retraced today, especially with it being a Fed week. The odds that this week will mark a low for gold are probably better now than they were on Friday.
GLD looks fine and was able to fill more of its May 19th gap today…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p42323933401&a=1146581856
The 200 week MA for GDX is now 29.70…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p96392340634&a=1051124412
IPT is acting well vs larger cap silver miners today (currently up over 5% vs SILJ)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=11&id=p68162478580&a=1183580160
It’s acting well vs almost everything.
I don’t know why but it has always been a good bellwether.
with all the gold positives quoted in here, interested to know what you are buying
On the nibbling front in the PM candy store, I added to my positions in Hecla, Silvercrest, Endeavour, Mako Mining, and Amex Exploration today, but did blow out my Gold Standard Ventures position at a level wash, just to raise more funds.
Last week I added more to my positions in I-80 Gold Corp, Superior Gold, Karora Resources, Gatos Silver, Silver Tiger, Defiance Silver, but sold my positions in Aris Gold, Ucore Rare Metals, and Generation Mining to pull profits in those before they evaporated.
NUGT is a good name after all….keep your nuggets out of the fire at all costs?…just advise……Back into that thing and the chop around certainly must be accumulation by the big boyz?….much smarter in theory but mainly they make the markets…lmao…is this smart to buy miners prior to the disappointment triggered market crash….maybe EX will summon up a guest to sell that?….ya know, fools love company type thing……glta
Hi Larry. You had written: “is this smart to buy miners prior to the disappointment triggered market crash….maybe EX will summon up a guest to sell that?”
Sure I’m happy to ask one of our guests about that, but just want to make sure I understand the question. Are you asking if its a good idea to buy miners prior to the market crash? (It would seem they’d still get hit during the crash with everything else). We have asked that question to a lot of people already about whether the PM miners would diverge or get sucked down with everything else, and most felt they’d get selloff with everything else.
Hopefully I understood your question correctly though, but please let me know if there is a nuance to it that I didn’t pick up.
EX I was writing too cryptically…..I went into nugt again yesterday early afternoon due to a 10 minute chart fib number and technical turn around…..and anticipation of an intermediate cycle low on the weekly chart….
However if this equity bounce is simply a half cycle low and bounce followed by more down is that wise to enter gold related miners…I was being a skeptical person that is all…
Since I held overnight, do I sell into this pop?…that is now my focus…quite a game…once it is real clear a new trend is established that may cost 20%….I find it hard to believe gold miners are at a new longer term low and as such will trade from day and less charts…glta
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jayant & Jeff.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!