Weekend Show – Rick Bensignor’s Outlook For Us Markets, Commodities, USD and Bitcoin
On this Weekend’s Show we are joined by Rick Bensignor to cover all the major sectors and discuss how this bear market will play out. We focus a lot on Rick’s 7:11 SPDR Report which has outperformed the market during the last bull market and also over this recent bear market.
This is the first time we have had the opportunity to chat with Rick for the entire show which is very lucky considering these volatile markets. We start with the US markets and now “bear market” territory that was entered at the end of the week. Up next are interest rates and US Dollar which are both impacting a wide range of markets. We then get into commodities, including energy, agriculture, base metals and gold. Finally we can’t leave out cryptocurrencies and how they play into this bear market.
Please let Shad and I know what you think of the show. Out email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com. We know these markets are very difficult so we are trying to help however we can.
Also when you have a chance check out Rick’s 7:11 Report. Click here to find out about the report.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- SilverCrest Metals – A Focus On How The High Margin Las Chispas Project Compares To Other Silver Mines
- Guanajuato Silver – Production And Exploration Update AT The El Cubo Mine And Pinguico Project
- Nickel Creek Platinum – Overview Of The 2022 Drill Plans At The Advanced Nickel Shäw Project In Yukon, A PFS Planed For Next Year
- Summa Silver – Exploration Update From The Mogollon and Huges Silver-Gold Projects
- Granite Creek Copper – Upcoming PEA And Phase 2 Drill Program At Carmacks Copper-Gold-Silver Project
- Graphene Manufacturing Group – A Collaboration Agreement With Rio Tinto To Utilize GMG Products
- Aztec Minerals – PP Announced With Alamos Gold As A Strategic Investor
- Capella Minerals – Updates On Exploration Plans In Finland and The Projects In Norway
- Sun Summit Minerals – An Introduction To The Buck Project, Team, And Company Financials
Good thoughts Doc. I’d submit we are further than 5 months into this correction as the worm turned long befor the beginning of this calendar year. The tendency of many is to only look year to date performance, but this doesn’t account for where the cracks in the markets showed up.
As a number of guests like Jesse Felder and Dana Lyons pointed out last year, that by Q3 and Q4 there were huge parts or the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 already making new 52 week lows, and by November even the largest names started rolling over, as did the Cryptos. So if anything we are already between 7-12 months into the unfolding bear market, depending on which sectors within the markets one is discussing.
It’s the same thing with comments we are hearing about the markets now being down 20% on the year. Great, but if one looks back to where things actually peaked out last year, the markets are already down much more than that. Many sectors like the “stay at home stocks” or “reopening stocks” or “meme stocks” or SPACs or many altcoins in the crypto space are down 40%-80% since Q3 and Q4 of last year, and this decimated a great deal of the hot speculative money in the markets.
It was not a surprise when the “January Effect” coming into 2022 forecasted more downside pressure for this year in general equities, because the markets had already been correcting for months by that point in time to kick off this year. Some just refused to see it when bringing it up last year as just more “doom and gloom,” but the data was all there showing the market rollover was well underway.
To your point, coming off one of the longest and highest bull markets after a dozen years of market interference from the Fed to inflate the “everything bubble” coming out of 2009, we are finally seeing a more typical, and long overdue, bear market. It will likely last longer than many are prepared for.
Now that the central banksters finally pulled their excessive accommodative “emergency” liquidity out of the markets, and were forced by the inflation they caused to finally start hiking rates up off the zero mark, we are seeing the selling that should have happened years ago, if not for the interference from east money.
Many would point out the market never really finished paying the piper after The Great Financial Crisis because of the Fed’s interference with Quantitative Easing, and the government’s bailout of “Too Big To Fail” corporations, that should have been allowed to fail if we really had free markets.
For years, brain-dead generalists on financial media outlets thought they were genius investors because they “bought the dip” as the Fed’s monetary policies and governments fiscal policies juiced all markets higher and higher. It wasn’t because they were good, and in fact many were lousy buying at the wrong times, but everyone eventually got bailed out of their bad trades by the ever expanding everything bubble.
Now those same people, that believed markets can only go up, that inflation was just going to be transitory for Q2 of 2021, that believed the economy was on strong footing and the reopening trade would bring us years of explosive growth, and that thought growth tech stocks were the greatest things since sliced bread are suddenly stunned that we are having a garden variety correction now that Fed’s liquidity punchbowl has been pulled away from the party. Their bulbs are too dim to realize the party ended a while ago, and this was all building up to play out for years…. The Pandemic and war an Ukraine have been used as the fallguys and scapegoats, but they were just the pins that popped the already artificially inflated bloated market bubble.
Tough times are still to come, but wishing the KER crew good trading and prosperity in life as we navigate these turbulent waters. Ever Upward!
“However, one has to understand that this government would like nothing better then to crush the commodity sector and indirectly the Russian economy.”
Seems our rulers have made it clear they want regime change in Russia and to make Russia an NWO vassal state. And our rulers are arming Ukraine with tens of billions in weaponry plus you can bet they have special ops forces and mercs in there fighting.
But do you think Lord Austin and General Milli Vanilli will put their Woke Clown Force Army (WCFA) up against the Rooskies?
Sorry…that should be clot shot injected Woke Clown Force Army…💉🤡 🤡 💉
Ex, you’re correct from a sector standpoint that the bear market started earlier then January; I’m just using a monthly chart to define the start. Regardless, this is going to be a correction that most people would rather not see.
OK. Thanks for clarifying that part on the monthly charts Doc. Yes, the indexes held up for longer and better than the vast majority of the stocks most generalist investors held, because of the high flying sector leaders like the FAANGs or Tesla holding up better than the rest of the market breadth, and because of their massive weighting inside the indexes. However, even the sector leaders starting getting hit in November & December of last year.
The reality is that most investors are down far more over the last year than the indexes would indicate, as they don’t take into account the thrashing and trashing of the “meme-stocks”, “stay-at-home stocks”, “reopening stocks” “growth stocks ala Ark Innovations holdings” or the crash in the cryptos since November of last year. Lots of investing capital went to money heaven, never to return to the markets. That money was just incinerated, and there is far less funds for investors to “buy the dip” now and moving forward.
Yes, this has already been a corrective move that many would have preferred not to see, but sadly there is more pain to come and it will likely drag on longer than most would expect. However, there are a few technicians expecting a relief rally in the general markets for a while, along with bonds, where the momo traders will come back in thinking the storm has passed, and then that’s when the rug will really get pulled out from under people’s feet as the next leg down after that rally will likely break even lower and instill more fear from even the die-hard generalist perma-bulls.
As long as the decline in the general markets is more orderly, like it has been the last 7 months or so, then I’d anticipate gold still holding it’s own like it has been and diverging by simply pulling back less than the markets. That is what we want to ultimately see, where the PMs return to their role as being a safe haven from market chaos, and if just some of the generalist money rotates out of bonds and stocks and into gold & silver, then that should be the catalysts to move the PMs to higher levels over the next 2 years. Cheers!
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Rick.
.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
‘We Have Been Here Before’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (05/21/2022)
‘When It Unwinds It’s Going To Be Violent’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (05/14/2022)
Dismal Retail Earnings Induce Gold Sector Bounce
David Erfle – Friday May 20th, 2022
“With the Federal Reserve announcing its largest and most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in 22 years earlier this month, the marketplace has been pricing in a likely upcoming recession. Although the Fed’s planned quantitative tightening (QT) of its $9 trillion balance sheet has yet to begin as scheduled in June, the anticipation of the monetary punchbowl being taken away has already ushered in the worst start of a calendar year for the stock market since 1939.”
“After the Fed got caught in a trap of its own making by attempting to lull the market into a false sense of ‘transitory inflation’ security, the market has begun to price in the central bank likely being too late to catch up with continually rising prices. Even former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke admitted in a New York Times interview last week that the Federal Reserve’s delayed response to rising consumer prices “was a mistake” which would lead to a period of stagflation.”
https://mailchi.mp/75baeaf15d40/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1600950
Better brace for another lock down,….with the MONKEY POX …coming to a neighborhood near you…
Ramp up for the next election………. PREPLANNED……… documents provide upon request…
Of course you are right that it is preplanned. Here’s some mandatory reading straight from the government’s own NIH National Library of Medicine. It is superb…
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9062939/
outstanding…went to my favs in the’ covid corruption’ folder…lmao
Ditto……….. Great article…… with a lot of reference articles at bottom………
THANKS MATTHEW………….
From the article……”fact CHECK”……….. I find that interesting, since…..for two years a lot of morons tried to DEBUNK a lot of info I presented….
… 🙂
The designers of this pandemic anticipated a pushback by the public and that major embarrassing questions would be asked. To prevent this, the controllers fed the media a number of tactics, one of the most commonly used was and is the “fact check” scam. With each confrontation with carefully documented evidence, the media “fact checkers” countered with the charge of “misinformation”, and an unfounded “conspiracy theory” charge that was, in their lexicon, “debunked”. Never were we told who the fact checkers were or the source of their “debunking” information
You can bet that the fact checkers were/are imbeciles of the woke variety that just got out of high school.
What get’s me is the cognitive dissonance on the right. How do so many give a pass to Trump, FOX, Daily Wire, etc., etc., when none of them have come close to telling the truth about the real nature of the operation. It is plain to see that they are all controlled opposition. In addition to aiding and abetting, their role is to act as a pressure relief valve to stop the masses from becoming active participants in the theater that only negatively shapes their lives.
Ditto…….. I agree…….After giving trumpster a pass, on a lot of issues,,,,..the final straw was, when he went along with the JABB…. and then he promotes Dr. Oz……. pathetic ….
Good point, Jerry. What, in your mind, is wrong with Dr. Oz
Owl……….Dr. Oz……. went along with the JAB…….. condoned it…… and as of right now , we are seeing the effects….. Dr. Oz, is part of the MSN agenda BS…….
Trumpster, just added another slime ball to the mix……
oz promotes allopathic medical fraud….medical cartel is gaining central power using him…works good for globalists…oz is RINO and will sell you out in congress as he did in medical dis-information…he has deep ties to muslim brotherhood…..low i…too dim to know they are the problem
Yup, Oz is a dirtball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1cOvH1_vKc&ab_channel=Dr.EricBergDC
From the article…………. this is a rich one…..
Proven fraudulent “ghostwritten” articles sponsored by pharmaceutical giants have appeared regularly in top clinical journals, such as JAMA, and New England Journal of Medicine—never to be removed despite proven scientific abuse and manipulation of data.[
Yup, it’s called tyranny. The central planners are going for broke and it’s wild that so many have fallen for such a brazen fraud.
MASS MURDER……………………..wonder how some of the idiots feel now…..
It has been estimated, based on results by physicians treating the most covid patients successfully, that of the 800,000 people that we are told died from Covid, 640,000 could have not only been saved, but could have, in many cases, returned to their pre-infection health status had mandated early treatment
FINALLY……………. MASK …… I said a lot of people would owe me an apology…..
In fact, some very good studies suggested that the masks actually spread the virus by giving people a false sense of security and other factors, such as the observation that people were constantly breaking sterile technique by touching their mask, improper removal and by leakage of infectious aerosols around the edges of the mask. In addition masks were being disposed of in parking lots, walking trails, laid on tabletops in restaurants and placed in pockets and purses.
Within a few minutes of putting on the mask, a number of pathogenic bacteria can be cultured from the masks, putting the immune suppressed person at a high risk of bacterial pneumonia and children at a higher risk of meningitis.[16] A study by researchers at the University of Florida cultured over 11 pathogenic bacteria from the inside of the mask worn by children in schools.[40]
It was also known that children were at essentially no risk of either getting sick from the virus or transmitting it.
In addition, it was also known that wearing a mask for over 4 hours (as occurs in all schools) results in significant hypoxia (low blood oxygen levels) and hypercapnia (high CO2 levels), which have a number of deleterious effects on health, including impairing the development of the child’s brain.[4,72,52]
Good and generally quick read Matthew. Thanks for sharing!
Most people seem to forget or don’t know that market behavior (like everything else) is fractal. It’s the reason charts work. A pattern on a daily, hourly or smaller chart holds the same implications as the same pattern when it is found on a monthly, quarterly or larger chart. Yes, active traders should focus on short term charts but long term investors and speculators can get away with following the weekly and larger charts. All of them routinely send us messages that conflict with the messages of the others. For example, the following quarterly silver chart remains unequivocally net bullish despite the hard pullback of late.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=Q&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7754466372c&a=781484393&r=1653171950498&cmd=print
a spot on Mo. chart Matthew….this is a backtest of that 2016 swing point high…but a scary moment would be nice like 19.50 or so….then reverse into a hammer!…one can have a wish list I guess….of course the next month would confirm with volume…sweet dreams are made of this…lmao…i am so giddy for that moment to appear…..i noticed a swing in gold daily’s starting 2 trading days ago…all 4 major currencies were taking on resistance lines in the up move…if we get pound euro yen dollar with gold moving up in that respective fiat…game on…glta…another totally great world class show and learning forum…thanks for miracles in an other wise fake world….
It looks like those links have expired so here they are again:
Quarterly
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=Q&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9382262766c&a=781484393&r=1653238505951&cmd=print
Notice how the monthly chart turned bearish back in 2011 but it wasn’t until the quarterly chart turned bearish over a year later that gold had its crash of 2013.
Then, take a look at 2016. The monthly chart turned bullish but the quarterly was still years away from doing so which is why we had to wait until 2020 for the breakout above the 2016 high.
The strongest and most sustainable uptrends (or downtrends) happen when all of the bigger charts are on the same page but most probably don’t know that since most don’t look at longer term charts.
What we need now is for the weekly and monthly charts to turn bullish again before the slow-moving quarterly chart turns bearish and I think they will.
What puzzles me, is that nobody is talking about getting positioned to capitalize on a major move down. I’ve recently been dabbling in UVXY, learning how it behaves, and can see it’s potential to spike on a big down day. This would’ve been handy during the covid crash & I’ll continue to buy its dips.
Hi Buzz, my intention is to try and catch any relief rallies in this market and go into cash when I think we are headed down again. Within that context I will be looking for small to mid cap precious metal producers that if you were a horse racing junkie you would try to pick the ones that have the most momentum and are likely to cross the finish line first. Right now my Numero One pick is Calibre Mining. (SYL-CXB). I like the volume it trades at and the exposure it has in the marketplace. Madison Avenue proved a long time ago that if you want to be a winner in any market you must advertise. Calibre fits that bill for me. “A Day At The Races”! The Marx Brothers! Groucho Marx was heavily invested in the stock market in 1929 and when it crashed he phoned his broker who told him that he lost everything. This is not investment advice. DT😉
Hi DT. Agreed on waiting for the next relief rally in the markets up to resistance to potentially put in some short hedges.
As for Calibre CXB, it’s my heaviest weighted gold stock at present. The exploration work they are doing in Nicaragua and Nevada is hitting on all cylinders, and operationally they are doing much better on containing costs and maximizing margins than many of their larger market cap peers. If gold breaks to new highs above $2100 again, and they are successful in bringing their development pipeline into production over the next 2 years as planned, then I see them as an easy 3-5 bagger in valuation from here.
Ex was once in SRTY, which is hitting new 52 week highs
Hi Buzz – Yeah, I’ve unfortunately not been shorting the general markets or playing the upside in volatility lately. If we get a meaningful relief rally in the us equities, and a reduction in volatility readings, then I may have another go at it. Good luck to you in your trading.
I’ve still got many JR miners, & have been trading the swings. I just want enough downside protection such that taking gains on UVXY gets me into waterfall declines in juniors such as AXU
Timing of the Weekend Show is just right for me in Guangzhou, hitting here about 7pm Saturday evening. Have a first listen, catch a few comments on Sunday and ready to go Monday.
Hi Terry, I heard that Chinese people were big gamblers. Many, many, years ago I owned a sign company that made plastic illuminated signs that were installed on the flat roofs of low rise commercial buildings. Whenever I was working in the area known as Chinatown there were always plenty of dice littering the roofs. I assumed that it was from illegal gambling, and it was something I never saw anywhere else. LOL! DT!
DT, When the family gets together during holidays it’s one big majong game day and night.
Uranium stocks are coming back to earth which will provide opportunity again to purchase. There is not much of a way out of the energy issues of the future except for an increase in nuclear energy.
Agreed Doc on both the fundamental case for nuclear energy as part of the mix and solution for energy demand globally. The potential for the small modular reactors, as well as the new generation large reactors which are both safer and more efficient, are finally getting traction with improving sentiment in the sector from previously dissenting voices
Steve Penny and I discussed on Friday the Uranium stocks, using the chart of the ETF URNM as a proxy. He brought up that when Uranium spot price went from $30 to $60, that URNM went from $28 to $104, and obviously many individual companies outperformed that move by a factor of 2 or 3.
We also duscussed the recent pullback of UUUU Energy Fuels from $11 to $5 in just 20 trading days. Lots of whipsaw volatility for great trade setups in the uranium miners, and we’re at a good spot for people that missed the several prior runs to accumulate new positions, or add to existing positions. I topped up my 7 U stocks over the last 2 weeks.
Hi Ex, I sold my only Uranium stock Kraken Energy at the right time, SYL-CSE-UUSA. It had been Ivor Explorations and has pulled back considerably. I have been reading your posts and it seems the Uranium space might get a bid again. Could you list your seven uranium stocks for me and the other posters and readers that might want to buy in, now that this sector has corrected somewhat. Thanks, DT!
Hi DT. Yes, it is looking like Uranium stocks have pulled back enough to start garnering some interest again from the bottom fishers, and I’ve been doing some adding over the last 2 weeks.
I’ve got positions mostly rebuilt now at 90% of where I want the allocation in Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Uranium Energy Corp, enCore Energy, Denison Mines, NexGen, and Uranium Royalty Corp. Those are all prior producers or some of the most advanced developers. I don’t currently have any earlier stage explorers but have considered adding back Purepoint, UEX, ALX Uranium, Baselode, or taking a flyer on the Ivor you mentioned.
Thanks Ex, most of the investors I have listened to recommend the producers first, thanks for the list. much appreciated. DT
(UUUU) (EFR) Energy Fuels Announces Q1-2022 Results, Including Continued Robust Balance Sheet, Market-Leading U.S. Uranium Position & Rare Earth Production
16 May 2022
– The Company produced approximately 60 metric tonnes of mixed rare earth element (“REE”) carbonate, containing 30 metric tonnes of total rare earth oxides during Q1-2022. Energy Fuels’ RE Carbonate, which is roughly 32% – 34% NdPr, is the most advanced REE material being produced in the U.S. today.
– The Company is currently in active discussions with several sources of natural monazite sands around the world to significantly increase the supply of feed for its growing REE initiative.
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/energy-fuels-announces-q1-2022-results-including-continued
(UUUU) (EFR) Energy Fuels Secures Major Rare Earth Land Position in Brazil
19 May 2022
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/energy-fuels-secures-major-rare-earth-land-position
US, Canadian Companies Set To Soar On Russian Uranium Ban
Henry Lazenby | May 17, 2022
““Uranium is already in a bull market,” Clark said. “Yes, those prices have come down just like the others have, but for fundamental key reasons such as supply-demand … growing globally for uranium and nuclear power,” he said.
https://www.mining.com/vric-us-canadian-companies-set-to-soar-on-russian-uranium-ban/
Dear Doc…Do you think they are testing the coivd 19 lows?? How far can Cameco fall..Sincerely Poppie *…
Dollar Index : May : Upswing Ж Retest
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/05/dollar-index-may.html
Trend Turn Table: https://tinyurl.com/mt2berap
Thanks for the dollar charts BDC. That 50% retracement in the US Dollar down to the 101.40ish area seems like a potential over the next month or so if that keeps rolling over.
The crow-line has held so far, but is now (Sunday 21:00) being tested at 102.95. If it breaks I will add a daily or weekly chart. Gold and Silver are doing well.
OT: A Gold backed Ruble and Dinar may evolve, in combination with the Yuan.
First Canadian Rare Earth Mine Starts Shipping Concentrate From North West Territories, new technology has made this happen. DT
(VZLA) Vizsla Silver Discovers New Vein at Northern End of Tajitos Intersecting 3,513 G/t AgEq over 2.65 Metres
May 19, 2022
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-silver-discovers-new-vein-at-the-northern-end
Weekly swing low in gold is in. Odds that gold has put in an intermediate cycle low are extremely high.
Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL) – $1.1B Acquisitions & Dividends
Crux Investor – May 20, 2022
0:00 – Company Overview
0:20 – Reason why Mining Royalties are the Better Investment as of Today
1:34 – Possible Reasons for Market’s Lack of Attention to Mining Royalties
2:48 – Overview of Recent Acquisition Deals
3:39 – Why the Acquisitions are better for the Company
5:10 – Addressing the Declining Stock Prices due to Acquisitions
6:54 – Structure of the Acquisition Deal Overview
9:04 – Tidying up the Company Assets
10:19 – Source of Financing for the Acquisitions
11:42 – Attracting Retail Investors
12:24 – Strategies for Company Growth
14:20 – Possibility of Investing in Horizon Copper
14:53 – How Horizon Copper can Capitalize on the Market Trend
16:01- Outro
Dollar Index : May : Pullback : Initial Fibo Target 101.61
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/05/dollar-index-may.html
Rick Ackerman is negative on the Dollar, but shorter term only.
https://www.rickackerman.com/2022/05/dxy-nybot-dollar-index-last103-02/
Copper Outlook – Junior Copper Hots Up
Mining Journal – Group managing editor Chris Cann
Metals Scarcity Could Slow Energy Transition
Henry Lazenby – Mining.com – May 17, 2022
https://www.mining.com/vric-metals-scarcity-could-slow-energy-transition/
gdx 2 hour chart
https://tos.mx/Oz1ikSA
the low of the pattern A must not fail or huge leg down
/GC complete an ABC up on 2 hour chart…The C to D leg weakened….Where will the re-trace go…Will it break the recent low?…no idea
Anybody see this. Fulp is giving up! tps://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-23/-I-am-basically-exiting-the-junior-resource-space-I-am-very-bearish-Mickey-Fulp.html
Fulp says he’s never been more bearish in his life and that’s great news since it is safe to say that a huge amount of retail money agrees with him. I’m sure he’s a fine geologist but the rest of his analysis needs work.
Let’s see if this link works:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-23/-I-am-basically-exiting-the-junior-resource-space-I-am-very-bearish-Mickey-Fulp.html
That is saying something for Mickey
hey, we finally got an outright bear on kitco. That’s promising for gold bugs providing spx doesn’t crack in here as nothing will be safe .
I don’t often listen to market analysts, other technicians, or newsletter writers as far as to the directions of markets since most of them follow each other in their prognostications but this guy gets it right at this point in time. I’ll repeat what I said in December of 2021; 2022 will be a very tough year for almost all asset classes. The carnage is just beginning and we will probably not see the light at the end of the tunnel until even the commodity sector starts to feel some pain and the $CRB appears to just be starting to top. However, that doesn’t mean that the sector is done with its’ bull market. However, one has to understand that this government would like nothing better then to crush the commodity sector and indirectly the Russian economy. Remember, post WWII, conventional bear markets have lasted anywhere from 5-22 months. We are only about 5 months into this bear market and you can bet we’re due for a longer bear market since we had one of the longest bull markets ever. Cash in interest bearing accounts will be a good place to be for a number of months yet.