Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – Making Sense Of Fed Policy, Market Volatility and Commodity Investing
A tough 2022 continues for investors as almost every sector declined this week. It was volatile before the Fed meeting and post-Fed meetings things got crazy. We saw 1,000+ point swings in the Dow on Wednesday and Thursday but then the dust settled markets are continuing the downtrends.
On this Weekend’s Show we are joined by Jesse Felder and Jeff Christian both weighing in on the Fed meeting and statement as well the market reactions.
Please keep in touch by emailing us at Fleck@kereport.com or Shad@kereport.com. We love hearing your thoughts on the markets and Company we have featured on the show or ones you think we should have on.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of the Felder Report joins us to explain why he think the Fed “blinked” this week and told investors they are still not truly fighting inflation. We carry the conversation over to the markets and commodities, all of which have been showing weakness. Click here to learn more about the Felder Report.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at The CPM Group joins us to share his thoughts on the Fed meeting and how any tightening impacts markets and the economy. We also focus on the silver market as the CPM Group is launching the 2022 Silver Yearbook next week on Wednesday. Click here to sign up for the free Silver Yearbook launch event and silver outlook.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Troilus Gold – Exploration Update At The Southwest Zone And Gap Zone, Working On PFS For July
- Torq Resources – More Information On The Discovery Announced Today At The Margarita Project
- Big Ridge Gold – Another Tranche Of Drill Results From The Hope Brooke Gold Project
- Benchmark Metals – Drill Results From The Dukes Ridge Deposit Adding To The Existing Resource and Strong Metallurgical Recovery Results
- Astra Exploration – Maiden Drill Results From The Pampa Paciencia Project Hitting Multiple High-Grade Gold Intercepts In The First 11 Holes
- Blackrock Silver – Unpacking The Tonopah West Maiden Stope Optimized Resource Estimate Of 42.6 Million Ounces Silver Equivalent Grading 446 g/t AgEq
- Libero Copper & Gold – 9 New Porphyry Targets Surrounding The Large Mocoa Copper Deposit
- Kenorland Minerals – Over $25million Exploration Budget This Year On A Range Of Properties, Drilling Starting At The Renault Discovery
- Volcanic Gold Mines – Unpacking More High-Grade Drill Results Just Announced At The Holly Project
- Calibre Mining – Solid Operational And Financial Results for Q1 2022, Along With An Overall Exploration And Development Update
- Group Ten Metals – Third Tranche Of High-Grade Nickel Equivalent Drill Results Released At Stillwater West
- Labrador Gold – Drill Results Expanding High Grade Gold At The Big Vein Target And Initial Drill Results From The Pristine Target
- Aztec Minerals – Initial Drill Results From The California North Target and The Jasper Target In Mexico
- Core Assets – Introducing This New Exploration Company Already Garnering Market Interest Focused At The Blue Property In BC
- Aurion Resources – First Winter 2022 Drill Program Assays From Helmi Return 2.05 g/t Gold Over 77.50 Meters
BDC – I noticed you added key news data on certain days to your tables – like rate hikes, core inflation, and Fed minutes… a nice touch.
I would have to say…………… a very interesting chart………… JMO
I have not followed this chart, but, hopefully will do so in the future….
Thanks BDC…….
I must admit my ignorance – what form of dark magic is Turn Tables?
Thanks –
Mike
As someone who was an electronic dance DJ for a number of years, I can state Turntablism is a dark art, especially when doing it in a nightclub far into the evening in some dimly lit corner of the venue. Haha!
> The Art of Turntablism
Turntablism travels station to station
BDC has done a good job coming up with his system of tables for various asset classes which assign a numeric value to a given date on the calendar layout based on 7 proprietary criteria points (what those are I’m still not 100% sure) which line up when a given sector or stock may be near a turning point after trending down or up for a period of time. Hopefully I’m describing that somewhat correctly. Anyway, BDC has been sharing his work here for some time and continued to develop his system adding in more detail like the shaded continuation squares, etc… The benefit I see to his system is that informs investors when a market turn is more ideal.
Thanks Ex! There’s detail in my replies to Larry here (scroll to BDC):
http://www.kereport.com/2022/05/04/calibre-mining-solid-operational-and-financial-results-for-q1-2022-along-with-a-overall-exploration-and-development-update/
It’s late now, but tomorrow I’ll be around to answer questions. – Bob
Dollar Index : May : Ongoing Retest
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/05/dollar-index-may.html
10-4 good buddy, and thanks BDC for sharing your work here with the KER crew.
THANKS for the Explanation……… BDC……… I read your note to larry……..
appreciate the details……. better explains what it means….
BDC – thanks for the help and info but I’m still confused. I live in the IT world, architect and manage solutions, and when I get a chance write python because it is fun and I love puzzles but this is opaque. Is there some background on this analysis method I can read? It seems to be a process of extracting chart data and organizing it a tabular form to search for patterns. I’m down with patterns and my favorite thing to do is write code to extract data based on a pattern then to transform it into another structure. But I need to understand why the data source was chosen and the criteria used to extract the data.
Sorry to be a pain but this looks interesting and not really sure what I am seeing –
Thanks for all you do –
Mike, this will be automated someday,
as a powerful short term swing indicator.
The singular function I use is open source,
and is employed in seven time frames.
Saturation for each is calculated.
Maximum Saturation is 100%.
MaxSat count determines viability.
Counts of 4 to 7 qualify to be displayed.
Note KOLD Monday morning.
UNG has likely topped.
UNG still not confirmed.
KOLD Gartley C buy?
Got some JNUG.
Added.
Stopped out. Will watch awhile.
(UNG confirmed Friday pre-market top.)
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse & Jeff.
.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Markets Are At Risk Of Another Deleveraging Event
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – May 4, 2022
“What’s more, it’s important to note that margin debt may be merely representative of a much larger use of leverage in things like asset-backed loans, call options, futures, leveraged ETFs, total return swaps, etc. All told, the total amount of leverage employed in the markets for risk assets may, in fact, be even larger than that earlier, ominous precedent.”
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/05/04/markets-are-at-risk-of-another-deleveraging-event/
The Worst Possible Environment For Financial Assets
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – May 7, 2022
https://mailchi.mp/felder/worst-environment-for-financial-assets
Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Everyone Is Maxing Out Their Credit Card Ahead Of The Recession
Friday May 06, 2022
“While it is traditionally viewed as a B-grade indicator, the March consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve was an absolute shocked and confirmed what we have been saying for month: any excess savings accumulated by the US middle class are long gone, and in their place Americans have unleashed a credit-card fueled spending spree.”
“Here are the shocking numbers: in March, one month after the February print already came in more than double the $18 billion expected, consumer credit exploded to an absolutely blowout $52.435 billion, again more than double the expected $25 billion print, and the highest on record.”
Employment Costs in U.S. Increase by More Than Forecast
Bloomberg – Apr 29, 2022
“U.S. employment costs exceeded forecasts at the start of the year, registering the biggest quarterly gain on record and heightening concerns about persistent inflation that sets the stage for more forceful policy action by the Federal Reserve.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/employment-costs-in-u-s-increase-by-more-than-forecast-1.1758984
Patrick Karim @badcharts1 · May 6, 2022 · Twitter
“Silver just 2.3% above it’s 3 year moving average. Tight.”
John Feneck – Best Gold & Silver Stocks Today
Soar Financial w/ Kai Hoffman – April 28, 2022
(SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold CEO On Why He’s Betting US$1.1B To Get Bigger Fast
BNN Bloomberg – 05/04/2022
“Nolan Watson, president and CEO of Sandstorm Gold, joins BNN Bloomberg and tells us about two acquisitions (including Nomad Royalty) that will immediately move the company up to the middle tier of gold streaming and royalty players.”
A Dozen Rules Of Risk Management For Staying In The Game In Any Market Climate
@Goldfinger on 6 May 2022
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/a-dozen-rules-of-risk-management-for-staying-in-the-game
This is such a great piece by Goldfinger on managing risks in one’s portfolio and highly recommended to spend 5 minutes reading it over.
A real pleasure to listen to Jesse this weekend. I really needed his comments! Thanks guys.
Agreed Silverdollar – always nice to get Jesse’s thoughts on the markets.
Couple of days ago I was sitting with some cash when IAG imploded and I was able to buy at the open for $2.00/share and sell later at $2.15, a good days pay and something that only happened because I am visiting this site daily and finding opportunities I probably wouldn’t have been aware of, otherwise. KER and the people who contribute here add a lot of value.
Thanks Terry for the kind words about the KE Report and I agree that there are fantastic contributions from the guests that come on and the contributors here on the blog week after week, year after year. Ever Upward!
Not nearly enough was said about the dollar’s “strength” being primarily due to euro weakness and NOT Fed hawkishness which is only a relative hawkishness. Gold, oil and commodities in general would not be doing so well if dollar strength was real and not by default. Therefore, one should not be so impressed with the strength in gold and commodities “in the face of such a strong dollar.” Way too much is made of that relationship by way too many people than is warranted. It’s not logically warranted and it’s not historically warranted.
Interestingly, oil would have to double from here to match its 2008 high versus the CPI Wage & Clerical Workers Index. Perhaps showing the problem with anything CPI is the fact that oil would have to go up more than 170% from here to match its 2008 high versus gold (and 180% to match its 2005 high vs gold). So, oil is not nearly as high as even many market professions are assuming and that probably explains why the share prices of most producers of most commodities are still way below the levels they reached when nominal oil prices were at today’s levels many years ago. It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison.
If you were to say that your great, great grandfather was 6 feet tall, everyone would know exactly how tall he was. They would also know exactly what he weighed if you said he was 180 pounds. However, if your were to say he died with $10,000 to his name, only a very small part of today’s population would know that he was worth 483.8 ounces of gold or $911,000 in today’s money (money substitute, to be accurate).
The dollar’s purchasing power is being destroyed at an accelerating rate despite exponential increases in technology which are very deflationary and therefore protective of the dollar’s purchasing power.
I’d like to see a chart of mining wages over the last 20 years.
Good points Matthew, and the point has been made many many times that the dollar strength, is really just in comparison to other equally flawed fiat currencies like the Euro, Yen, Pound, Franc, Canadian Dollar, and Krona. It is not a reflection of the dollars actual purchasing power which is constantly being eroded by inflation or when measured against real money like Gold.
Still, many computer algos for HFT are keyed off the US Dollar and it can be either a headwind or tailwind to commodities and the monetary metals, but clearly they are not strictly inversely related and often travel in tandem.
Yes, the dollar (index) can occasionally become a help or a hinderance to gold but way too many observers continue to overstate its massively significance which is why I tend to point it out no matter how many times it’s been covered. The facts just don’t line up with the claims so there’s endless time and handwringing wasted on the subject.
Similarly, the idea that there is anything remotely gold negative or Volcker-esque about the Fed’s recent actions or even the actions the Fed claims are coming. One must ignore the pre-Volcker 1970s to come to that conclusion.
Without a doubt, there are many factors keeping gold in check lately and if Fed policy is a meaningful one of them, it’s a one-off situation wherein those who don’t understand “ancient” history pile onto the wrong side of the market.
Good comments and agreed.
In 1929 before The Great Market crash, America and American industry was assured. Increased consumption was the road to plenty. The stock market was registering the state of the economy. There was nothing to challenge American supremacy in The Industrial World. America stood alone in it’s might and it’s foresight.
But what did America in was financial trusts that multiplied like locusts. These trusts ranged all the way from honestly managed companies to wildly speculative concerns that were run by corrupt promoters. Most after the inflationary period in 1927 until 1929 were so in debt that they could not pay the dividends from the securities which they held. As long as prices kept rising on the stock market it covered their dubious financial transactions.
But what happened was shares of investment trusts had stock in holding companies which owned stocks of banks which had affiliates which owned the stock of banks. It was such a complex arrangement that when everything became unglued nobody knew what was going on. This created a situation where it was impossible to be able to figure out where the problem was because the problem was everywhere.
Do you see what I mean? DT
Total public debt at the time of the 1929 crash was 16% of GDP. At the end of 2021, public debt was 123% of GDP.
The central banks will do what it takes to weaken the currency as much as necessary to keep the system alive and their power intact.
Henry Ford called it 100 years ago: “The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debts.”
Good discussion guys on the central banksters desire for power and control, and the nefarious games they play with creating funny money from nothing, and robbing from the purchasing power of the citizens over time through the printing of more and more of this monopoly “money.”
Do or Die Time for the Fed
By David Brady – Sprott Money – May 5, 2022
“The Fed has already begun tightening and the Nasdaq has dumped 25% from its peak. Bond yields and mortgage rates are soaring while home sales are now falling. How is more of the same making us better off? Oh yeah, lower inflation. How does that help if you collapse the system in the process?”
“Powell should know exactly what its impact would be based on what has happened since the moment he mentioned the word “taper” and what happened the last time they pursued Quantitative Tightening or QT. Unbelievable.”
“How about Q1 GDP at -1.4%? Another negative number in Q2 and we’re officially in recession. The Atlanta Fed, one of your own, has forecasted negative GDP for months now.”
“My takeaway from all this is that the Fed is trying to walk a fine line between lowering inflation and avoiding a systemic collapse in the process. The stock market and GDP numbers already suggest that is impossible, even before the rate hike yesterday and the supposedly pending balance sheet reduction. The Fed has a difficult choice to make in the next few weeks (months at most): Either continue to be hawkish and risk a complete meltdown in stocks, bonds, housing, and the economy at large or throw in the towel and risk hyperstagflation followed by the Greatest Depression. Either way, a collapse is coming. The question is: has it already begun or will the Fed engineer one more final melt-up? Based on history, my bet is on the latter. We’ll know very soon, imho.”
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Do-or-Die-Time-for-the-Fed-David-Brady-May-05-2022
Robert Kiyosaki says that hot inflation will ‘wipe out 50% of the US population’ — what he means and how to protect yourself
Jing Pan – MoneyWise – Sat, May 7, 2022
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/robert-kiyosaki-says-hot-inflation-140000889.html
High Gas Prices Prompt Fewer Trips To The Grocery Store
Ines Ferré · Markets Reporter Yahoo Finance – Fri, May 6, 2022
Excelsior, I haven’t been here for almost a year. The website has been updated. Gold and silver has been quietly. What really happened is in uranium. Most my positions trippled or quadrupled. I sold out a lot of them. Thanks a lot for your information. The Nexgen is a fantastic company. I am in a stage to add my sold positions back. Uranium seems has started a bull market. I hope gold &silver do the same. We have been waiting too long.
Hey there Dragonite – Always nice to see you here posting and thanks for checking in on the KE Report.
Yes, Cory & I started talking about revamping the website back in November of 2020 and finally got it all executed with our web designer by last summer. There are helpful new dropdown menus at the top (or on the side menu for smartphone users) that allow one to customize their experience by jumping to different topics like US Equity Markets, Gold, Silver, Base Metals, Energy Sector, US Dollar, Fed Policy, and Weekend Shows. Then under the other category “Stock and Company Interviews” there are submenus for jumping to Exploration companies, Development/Production companies, Royalty stocks, Gold stocks, Silver stocks, and Copper stocks. We’ll likely add more categories over time to include Oil/Gas stocks and Uranium Stocks for example, so it will expand over time. Also the front landing page is broken down into different sections now with the latest interviews at the top, then interviews on US Equity Markets, then Gold & Silver, then Base Metals, based on how we tagged them. One can also use the tags in a given interview to jump to even more specific topics like a country or area play, or a niche commodity etc… so lot’s of customization is possible for someone’s viewing and listening experience.
As for the last year, yeah it’s been a rangebound rollercoaster in the gold and silver stocks and PM sector, where there have been a few nice rallies, and then a few tough reversals and corrections so hard to make progress overall, but plenty of trading opportunities. In general though the sentiment in the Precious Metals is still pretty lousy overall when we get feedback from investors or talk with company management teams or IR people. Unfortunately, despite the reasonably high metals prices on a historic nominal basis, the mining stocks have not performed well and many are now plumbing lows not seen since the pandemic crash (and some juniors have even dipped below those levels) when the actual metals prices were actually much lower than where they are currently. It is eye opening to see how low many valuations still are in the PM miners compared to where they were valued at similar metals prices in 2010 and 2011 in gold especially, but even compared to the summer of 2016 levels.
As for Uranium stocks, you are correct that they were one of the bright spots in the mining stocks, and that is because they are more focused on the energy sector, which did quite well overall for the last 2 years — whether that was in Oil stocks, Nat Gas stocks, or Lithium stocks. I sold out of 85% of my Uranium stocks last Sept/Oct many for 3-8 baggers, and decided to cash in on the gains, because I was able to wash them out with losses in the PM stocks last year for tax purposes. However, then I felt very underexposed to the U stocks and gradually started buying them back from Nov – Feb of this year with new positions, and now after doing a few dozen swing-trades in them over the last year, have 7 positions in place that are in the money at current levels and ready for the next chapter to unfold.
Yes, NXE Nexgen that you mentioned is still a great uranium deposit in the Athabasca Basin, and probably the overall best undeveloped deposit there, but it’s valuation got up to levels where there are now few suitors that could take it over (maybe Cameco in a merger, or a takeover by Rio Tinto, BHP, or even some other larger Oil & Gas or Chemical conglomerate could take a stab at it). I still have a position in it, but with a much smaller weighting than I’ve had since starting accumulating it in 2016. I also have positions in Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Denison Mines, UEC, enCore Energy, and Uranium Royalty Corp.
Well, don’t be a stranger and pop in once in a while to check on the KER crew.
Ever Upward!
I am happy to talk to people here because you are all very knowledgeable. Unfortunately, I am busy doing two projects in two companies around data architecture. At same time, I am managing a discussion group for investment which is consisted of mostly immigrants from China. So time is very limited. I will try my best to post here once a while. Thanks a lot.
I am happy to say that I am still up this year despite market melt-down. I am also helping my members to move into PM and did help them to invest heavily in energy, which has paid us handsomely. But most of them still have investment in general market and have lost quite a bit. However, I am just a volunteering advisor so I have done my part.
All the best.
I just read the contributors posts…epic valuable timeless sound fact…glta…turning point soon…the decision IS IMHO…anticipate or just wait for a clear signal, meaning weekly…Not sure yet…Let us see what tales the charts provide…glta
Agreed Larry – There are lots of good insights shared by the community of contributors here at the KER… (including you sir). Keep on sharing the good market reflections and together we’ll all be more well-informed.
(IAU) (IAUCF) i-80 Gold Drilling Returns Best Intercept To-Date in the South Pacific Zone at Granite Creek 16.3 g/t Au over 15.7m and 33.7 g/t over 3.7m in hole iGS21-18
May 3, 2022
(IAU) (IAUCF) i-80 Gold Intersects High-Grade Gold in Initial Drilling of the Ogee Zone at Granite Creek
5 May 2022
Drilling in 2022 is continuing to focus on further expansion in the area between the bottom level of the mine workings and the deepest hole drilled by i-80 so far to test the Ogee Zone depth extension (from surface), iGS21-15, that intersected multiple high-grade mineralized horizons including:
– 13.3 g/t Au over 13.1 m, 20.3 g/t Au over 7.5 m, and 10.1 g/t Au over 17.5 m.
Highlight results from 2021 underground drilling at Granite Creek:
iGU21-35: 19.3 g/t Au over 5.1 m (0.56 opt – 16.7 ft) & 14.4 g/t Au over 3.7 m (0.42 opt – 12.1 ft)
iGU21-37: 27.7 g/t Au over 12.6 m (0.81 opt – 41.3 ft) & 54.7 g/t Au over 5.9 m (1.59 opt – 19.4 ft)
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/i-80-gold-intersects-high-grade-gold-in-initial-drilling
(WDO) (WDOFF) Wesdome Announces Continued High Grade Drilling Results From the Falcon 7 Zone at the Eagle River Mine
5 May 2022
– Hole 640-E-25: 90.2 g/t Au over 4.9 m core length (21.2 g/t Au capped, 3.4 m true width)
– Hole 640-E-31: 87.1 g/t Au over 6.6 m core length (59.5 g/t Au capped, 5.7 m true width)
– Hole 640-E-32: 49.8 g/t Au over 6.2 m core length (46.4 g/t Au capped, 4.0 m true width)
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/wesdome-announces-continued-high-grade-drilling-results
Investors are always dreaming/hoping/and waiting for good gold drill intercepts from the hundreds and hundreds of exploration programs underway.
Well, there were some of the best gold drill intercepts lately in the news and they were both made by the gold producers with advanced development projects… not by exploration companies. Just something to mull over.
We’ve talked on here for years about growth-oriented producers with big exploration upside… and that’s what it looks like.
Bitcoin is bouncing from some short term fork support today but looks pretty bad.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p31738749996&a=977627074
I think it is heading for a break of last year’s low and sub-20,000 longer term (and that’s probably optimistic).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70333007582&a=1101103783
Being a resident of China currently, all crypto trading is banned. Life is so much easier and uncomplicated when the government makes these kinds of decisions for citizens.
I’m not a fan of crypto myself but those who want to trade it should be allowed to. Governments everywhere have way too much illegitimate power.
Terry – what part of China are you in (if you don’t mind sharing), and what is the general situation on the ground with reopening? Are things still pretty locked down again, or is that being overblown by the press?
– Same question for Dragonite if he sees this post.
Also, as far as the banning of crypto trading and some of the crypto mining in China, do you think that is because the government is more focused on getting traction with it’s digital Yuan?
I’m in the south mostly Guangzhou, a modern city with many good features. A major annoyance right now is the zero tolerance policy towards covid, which requires constant testing and proof of a negative test whenever entering a public venue like a metro station. The real agenda is to track everybody continuously.
On the crypto front government doesn’t want any competition for their own currency system and the data that goes with it. So they want to know exactly where you are and how you are spending every rmb in your digital wallet.
Thanks for sharing Terry, and yes, they likely do want to just track everyone, and implement their own digital currency, and likely don’t like the side competition from the other cryptos. It’s a wild world we live in.
Return of Domesday Books: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domesday_Book
A weekly close below 33,000 sets up a move to 23,000…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p41460640981&a=1102557845
Gareth Soloway is a pretty good technical trader that has been featured on Kitco, Stansberry, Palisades, etc… and he’s been calling for a corrective move in Bitcoin down to around $20,000 since BTC got up above $65,000, and he took a lot of heat from the crypto communities for that call, but it seems pretty reasonable, based on the charts you just shared. In addition, now that many cryptos, including Bitcoin, were chopped in half over the last half year, people are less critical of Gareth’s TA projections.
Jesse and David Hunter may see the same thing?…The FED pivots and massive run up but then David believes that is ‘IT’ for the past 40 year cycle…deflation and reset followed by rampant inflation…invest in gold etc…. not gogo.com
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=david+hunter+melt+up+2022
If Hunter thinks we’re in for a massive run up to new highs in the stock market, I strongly disagree. As for gold, we now have big short term risks that could turn into something considerably worse so this week will be interesting.
Matt: When you begin to get bearish on gold, I get an uneasy feeling in my stomach. I’ve listened to David Hunter for the last year and he hasn’t changed except for adding a few thousand points to the projected highs in his necessary blowoff before everything goes down for the count. His thoughts do seem to be getting more irrelevant every day…….as are most pundits. Is there anyone who really knows??
Let’s see how we finish the week since the weekly chart is usually the most important and clearly the one in charge now. Today’s carnage has everything to do with all the new weekly MACD sell signals in the sector while monthly and the daily charts are much friendlier to a turn in our favor.
We do not want the quarterly chart to turn bearish because that would turn things really ugly. For example, it wasn’t the bearish monthly chart that gave gold its crash of 2013, it was the bearish turn of the quarterly that did it. We have about 7 weeks left for this quarterly price bar so all is not lost yet.
This one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z3yIhm-XHE
Rick Ackerman calls 3.24 top and TLT to 116.
BDC…David is being recorded every few days …lol……I have been considering he view….simply that….the fed will blink/stop tightening and release a final leg up in equity…no idea…he uses fundamentals…meanwhile the beta on the MACD for /ES keeps widening, simplest indicator…not good as per Matthew…in equity we do need a major panic selling low and based on evening action it is beginning…
Aussie mid tiers down 3-5% Monday. U miners down double digits in some cases.
/GC…if the 5/3/22 swing point fails///looks likely barring something unexpected…well then another leg down is created….day/GC w possible reasonable target zones…1791 would be ideal to launch back…no idea if that can happen…glta
https://tos.mx/uxID5nY
$1791 seems like a very reasonable target. That level would break the cycle uptrend line that G. Savage is looking for as a prerequisite for an intermediate term bottom, although anything below $1845ish would probably do that too. It’s also highly likely that gold’s weekly MACD will have to at least approach the zero line before a bottom is found, although that is not completely necessary.
I think G. Savage’s call for an intermediate term low sometime in the next 2-3 weeks will also prove to be a decent call.
I am hopeful that silver will break above $26 by early August, although its possible it stays subdued until later this year. In any event, I do believe the next low in gold and silver should be bought with both hands and feet (wait for a weekly swing low). However, I do not see the real rocket ride beginning until sometime in the first half of 2023.
Silver reminds me a lot of where palladium was in 2008, with the 200 WMA rising to meet the 600 WMA.
During the 2008 crash, palladium went all the way down to test its lows made 5 years prior. It then made a V-bottom and went on to get very close to its 2001 high. This formed a huge cup, and it then it consoldiated for about 4-5 years culminating with it coming down to test its 600 WMA (i.e., it formed it handle) before starting a massive bull run in 2016.
It’s quite possible silver will do something similar here if there truly is going to be a 2008 style liquidity event. Maybe we have to touch $13 again before we can get to $40+. Or perhaps at least break below its 200 WMA bfore getting to $40+. A 4-5 year consolidation after that would seem sort of rough though after all of the waiting be have already done, but I wouldn’t rule it out just because it makes people sad.
Green, same old story of the past pop ups, gold holding above lows reached in early February in current cosolidation, while the majority of those making the stuff did the opposite and continues on that path. That’s got to reverse for anything sustainable. Those with lots of dry powder will eventually do well when anything resembling a real turn manifests, unfortunaely those who kept doubling down can only hope for a moonshot.
BKRRF — Last adjusted tranche filled @ $.4917. Really wasn’t expecting that today
ELORO ( ELRRF ) cancelled bids @ $3.00, $2.80
NEW Stink bid @$2.02
NFGC — small buy @ $6.04, I’ve been patient on the rebuy since the $7.52 and $7.60 sells.
Marty, compared to you when it comes to this market I’ve got no balls for buying, I’m just amazed at the price action, these stocks could look like World Class buys when this drop is over. If this is like 1929 you may see it drift down after the big drop for three more years. LOL! DT
On Monday the rout is underway once more. Are The Bankers going to come in to support this market? That is the question on my mind! DT
If Tuesday opens up with another equatorial storm the margin calls will be headed to the clients from the brokers. The floor will not be supported! It will be chaos, I’m sure The Fed is getting very nervous watching this trading action. DT
Eh, this is what the Fed wants. At some point they will reverse course, but probably only when the politicians start screaming at them to do something.
In the meantime, it’s probably not worth even attempting to call a bottom before the Fed expressly relents. As sad as that is.
As long as the banks are liquid, I don’t think the Fed gives a rat’s behind what happens in the short run.
Yes its not so much what the Fed wants, its what the market demands.
Down near 10% with the third buy in of a little over a week ago LOL.. And the candy store again in fire sale mode in here, especially the dregs with outperformance on the downside as usual. Same old process of the past year or more.
Eyeing HL for an entry soon, as it will be a survivor knowing its history. Or maybe the beloved IPT as an add on. Oh so many choices in the rummage pile at the candy store.
The U stocks are getting finger licking good here as with uec, dml and the rest. Absolutely hammered.
I added to a few of the Uranium stocks today, because you are correct that they got monkey-hammered down. In addition, I did some horse trading and blew out a few ill-timed positions that have been portfolio dogs, and a few that were mildly in the money, to refortify other core positions. As for IPT, it was actually up in the green today and bifurcated from most of the sector. Unfortunately other silver stocks were hit hard and it was a pretty brutal day overall, in most areas of the market.
Impact, IPT… I saw it pop up in price and looked for news.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-silver-announces-q1-2022-130000539.html
Yeah, I saw the IPT news, but it didn’t seem to warrant the positive divergence it had today, when so many stocks were down bigly, but maybe it is sniffing out a bottom, as it usually finds it’s footing before the rest of the sector.
It was about to end in the green with a big bull hammer when someone sold a puny 3,000 shares to mark it down 6.75% (-5.4% for the day).
Nevertheless, it had a good day versus SILJ which a good sign, especially in this kind of market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=13&id=p30940893394&a=1094888246
Turn Tables: https://tinyurl.com/yc794bru
PMs no longer possible (for now).
NatGas turn nearly certain.