Joel Elconin – Inverted Yield Curve, Energy Prices and High Yield Investments
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website joins us to discuss the potential of a recession now that the 2/10 yield curve is inverted and energy prices remain elevated. We look at any high yield investments as well as bank stocks that continue to under-perform. It continues to be a headline driven market while downward pressure remains.
I’ve also shorted energy with HED. I used HZD for silver.
Good thoughts Dan and thanks for sharing your near-term shorting strategy in silver and oil. I had considered putting on a short hedge last week, just in case we saw a bit more downside pressure in the PMs but regrettably didn’t pull the trigger on it. At this point I’ll just be watching for more weakness in the mining stocks to fire off some of my dry powder into the pullback and top up some of my positions.
Let me be clear, this is short term thinking in an emerging bull market. I was away from the computer for a couple hours and everything went south… my holdings could be completely different before the weekend, haha!;-)
Understood Dan, and I took your comments to be just that – a short-duration trade to the short side, within the context of a bullish outlook medium to longer term. Nothing wrong with that as the market moves in both directions.
Just when you thought PM miners are about to take off, here comes the smash Lol. Anyone noticing Head & Shoulder pattern on Hecla chart?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=2&mn=10&dy=0&id=p21928872098&a=1137304831&listNum=1
Two day -15% hit on my account puts me back to -40% since January during a favorable commodity market. I would say that pretty much proves intervention
The silver miners are screaming range bound trade for the rest of 2022 IMO. That being said, we could get a very decent price spike starting next week. I am not expecting SIL’s 2020 high to get taking out until spring or summer 2023, however. I could be wrong, but IMO the sell-off in 2021 did serious chart damage and SIL will need to base out for another 6-8 months within a lower range.
We’ll see.
GDX understandably got sold hard when it tested its falling monthly Bollinger Band resistance again. Because of its leadership that got it to that resistance ahead of the pack, I’m betting that the smaller miners will take over leadership this quarter.
GDX monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7730363489c&a=1137462702&r=1649191635285&cmd=print
Today’s action was probably a good thing and not the start of something much worse as it took care of the exuberance we saw on Friday and Monday, the first two days of the new quarter.
GDX 10 minute:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&id=t9203831160c&r=1649192376658&cmd=print
Thanks Matthew, I traded HL from short side today (also SILJ) but don’t hold my shorts overnight.
SILJ had a nasty bearish engulfing which is telegraphing more downside in coming days.
Yes, SILJ looks very likely to go lower but it doesn’t have to be a huge drop. I’d like it to gap down 2.4% tomorrow and then go the other way immediately.
There’s some Bollinger Band, MA and other nearby support to watch…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27045672297&a=1092699007
Matthew, your thoughts on SCO? .
I’m still bullish oil long term but SCO looks like an opportunity setting up. I’d see which way it breaks short term and look to get long either way.
60 min:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCO&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=13&id=p51732982305&a=1137490308&r=1649194371989&cmd=print
…or just start buying carefully.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCO&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p40527563359&a=1137490308
Thanks Matthew! Always learn something from your charts.
For what it’s worth, here’s another 10 minute GDX. I thought it was more interesting than the first one above…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=7&id=p65813661678&a=1137502263&r=1649197083849&cmd=print
And another (it looks like a possible cup and handle)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06556222876&a=1137509714
Bears everywhere. All the leveraged bear etfs are up big, on large volume. Except KOLD.
I’ve sold quite a bit of stocks and have gone short silver, I wish I could have switched sooner but the damn fed idiot caught me off guard too… To me it looks like silver will dip into the $23s, all in my humble opinion. I have been caught by fed mumbo jumbo too many times.