Brien Lundin – Recapping yesterday’s pop in gold and gold, and silver and silver stocks plus a few companies that Brien likes
Brien Lundin, Editor of the Gold Newsletter joins us to share his thoughts on yesterday’s pop in gold and silver prices as well as the underlying stocks. The most important aspect of the move being the stocks leading higher. Brien also shares a couple stocks he likes that lagged the broad move higher yesterday. These stocks are Goldshore Resources, Heliostar Metals and Silver X Mining.
There is no shortage of daily volatility and diverging market outlooks… That is for sure…
At least a short term low would make sense from a few angles including the looks of the Nasdaq 100 with its nearby supports:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p18539925689&a=979061888
QQQ, SPY, and even DIA will likely hit MaxSat(7) down.
Today they all hit MaxSat(6), the penultimate power.
Similar negative strength occurred last October.
Not possible today. Maybe Monday.
(NY Time 20220121 09:39)
All the fang stocks are taking out support and have a long journey down—-it’s only the beginning.
PM securities are not immune:
GDM, GDX, GDXJ, HUI, XAU, SIL, SILJ
all have Bear Flags that began in mid-December.
Much will become clear Wednesday.
A defining moment unfolds.
I don’t see those as flags. A further pullback from here is a buying opportunity in my book and probably won’t last long.
I’m happy to be the owner of about .04% of IPT.
Aussie U miners down 5-7% at lunch Friday
cryptos down over 5% overnight, going to be fun day with tomorrow’s open.
Russia proposes ban on use and mining of cryptocurrencies
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-cbank-proposes-banning-cryptocurrencies-crypto-mining-2022-01-20/
Bitcoin pulled back 7% on this news, down to $39,072.
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https://youtu.be/4Ykh1r1aSFY
It is heading for about 30,000.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=14&id=p71198994476&a=1013900351
And then under 27,000.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p77906508807&a=1075706252
Interesting. I was considering the 50% move off the $69,000 high, down to to around $34,500 as a place to start looking at getting back in Bitcoin or crypto miners, but maybe I’ll watch for lower levels before getting too hasty in putting a few logs on the fire.
It is almost certain to finish this month with its first monthly MACD sell signal in 3.5 years and will be pounded mercilessly for a long time thereafter. The bag holders won’t know what hit them because they don’t know anything at all about markets or risk.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23800275788&a=1100715410&r=1642761879315&cmd=print
Here’s a non-log version of that monthly chart to help people grasp the enormity of that extremely ugly double top that’s in the works.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0344341293c&a=1100715410&r=1642762364519&cmd=print
Let’s try that non log chart again:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=t8527705779c&a=1015547995&r=1642814589179&cmd=print
It still could be a long way down for trapped Bitcoiners if/when that chart really corrects hard, although it has already corrected 48% off the highs down to $36,000 so that has been a pretty big move down already.
48% is huge for most asset classes but not for BC. It went up over 1,500 percent in a year and over 1,600 percent in 1.5 years as it feebly eked out a new high in November. Don’t forget that it corrected 55.5% between April and June before going up 140% to its final top.
Make no mistake, the news out of Russia is a convenient scapegoat and not the cause of what’s to come. The writing was on the wall since BC broke its July to November uptrend. That was bearish enough but it cemented a much larger and more bearish technical situation which came with massive bearish non-confirmations.
It will take years to fix the big picture technically so only dumb money will be playing the long side for a long time. Sure, it could fall less than I expect but then it would take even longer to get the charts back in order for the bulls. And, it could also take a long time to reach the lows that I do expect. Whatever path it takes, it is extremely unappealing from the long side and will be for years unless playing countertrend rallies is one’s idea of a good time while there’s a bull market elsewhere.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87671563062&a=1101103783
I may take a stab at trading some of the counter-trend rallies, but only as short-duration trades due to the extrenes in volatility.
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In a similar way I traded counter-trend rallies in Gamestop at 4 different times last year for some easy scalps, but had no intention of sticking around for the eventual implosion. It would be the same with trading any of the crypto or defi related assets, trading oversold conditions into relief rallies, then exiting and waiting for the next spot. Not without risk, but the violent up swings from those buying the dips can make for compelling swing-trades.
Surprised by equity markets today. They were generally 1% higher today when I left my computer.
Came home and wow, down just the opposite. Gold slightly off which is normal in IMO. Avi is looking for 4300-4485 region on S&P before rebounding to hit 5500. That means at least one more big day down. Tomorrow? Soloway looks for a bigger drawdown with no thought of above 5000. Who’s gonna win this argument?
Gary’s most recent read is looking for a major jump in gold. Things are getting exciting.