Goldfinger Discusses The Potential Market Moves From Fed Policy, Gold Price Technicals, and Aurion Resources
Robert Sinn, better known as Goldfinger on the chat forums, and publisher of Energy & Gold Ltd, joins us to share his thoughts on the direction the markets could take based on the upcoming Fed tightening policy. Next we move into a review of the technical pricing action in Gold and the mining stocks, and what levels he is looking for to see a more defined trend get established. We wrap up with comments on Aurion Resources (TSX.V:AU – OTC:AIRRF) that Robert likes from a current risk reward set-up and valuation basis.
Hi Matthew, I’m sure you have been following the news out of Scorpio lately, they have been putting up impressive drill results. One of their drill results today 203 G/T over 1.5 meters another at 71.3 G/T at 4.58 meters, they had another over 200 GT around two months ago.
A nice hit for Scorpio DT for sure, on the back of other solid exploration results in Oct & Sept as well.
Hi DT, yes I’ve been watching. It’s good to see decent volume for change. Today’s was many times that of the 90 day average and the greatest in nearly 7 months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGN.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20299357875&a=803269996
Hi Again Matthew, I don’t know how close Scorpio is to Las Vegas, but at these prices it sure looks good to me. I wonder what The Vegas odds makers think of this stock. Two permitted mines, huge land package, 100% owned and Wowzer drill results, and a 14 million $ market cap. They probably have gold reserves waiting to be milled. It doesn’t get much better at these prices. LOL!
DT, I agree. Even fully diluted it, at 12 cents it’s going for C$29.5M. It should really move when the market is satisfied that gold has bottomed.
Still looking bad for the PMs, no clear catalysts that could lift them.
Got end of year tax loss selling coming along with some thin market trading days for big contract dumps to drive the price down.
Stack on top of that rising costs to mine the metals, you have the perfect formula for mining shares to get bombed into dust.
Nothing but a lump of coal in your stocking… but hey, you can at least use that to heat your home.
The Fed is loving inflation.
Joe, most Canadians buy stocks in their TFSA, which is a tax free savings account. No tax loss selling for me or most other Canadians. DT
Also.. RRSP and self direct RRSP accounts…
Dollar Update : https://tinyurl.com/4sbsabua : FOMC on tap!
Read somewhere that big banks are not happy dealing with PM miners anymore because the miners are much better nowadays at using and caring for their money. Banks are not able to entice miners into making bad deals and screwing them over, so cannot make easy money dealing with miners as before.
Matthew Piepenburg at Matterhorn Asset Management tells it like it is…
Possible ADP head-fake this morning (not unprecedented):
https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar
NFP becomes much more critical!
the GDX day pattern is only day 5 of normal TD9 counter-trend move…ok- the bet for no action is not the fundamental background…but everything else is the same….TD8 or 9 low is end of week or early next week….but since we have a minor gap down the count is valid for a four bar lookback….so far nothing unusual….
NEM…big boys holding that stable as heck…good to be warren buffet..lmao nem looks fabulous…time keeps on ticking…..do not fall for this theatre trick to make you doubt…below 53.55 is not good though…
/GC 1757 target today…high vol bar of 10/13 and .618% fib pullback…nothing else..yet
any long overdue profit taking in spx will not be a pretty sight for the metals.
GDX has recovering the price range within the previous bullish hammer bar…this sort of action is bullish in the moment…not to read much into that action but be appreciative of this encouraging action…fed day is A BEAR at key moments…glta
https://tos.mx/lT1aAYb
SILJ..TWO bullish hammers on consecutive days…can only be construed as bullish…big money is buying each dip large on every pullback, anticipating upside action they are going to create…lmao
only has done a .382% pullback, that is nothing…..that implies significant strong momentum in the ensuing C to D leg up…lololololol
TD9 count is at 4 today…if that typical down momentum is thwarted…my bet is that is super bullish..
240 minute S.Stoch is oversold and allows for another rally in the daily times that does not require oversold indicators…lmao
https://tos.mx/DgYKPVn
Nice! Thanks for point that out Larry.
my only warning is simple…IF this trading cycle down IS the last one into the anticipated seasonal(long term) cycle bottom…then by definition we have a truncated seasonal low that occurs earlier than typical…typical is due early december to mid january……but these are not normal times but the powers that are can definitely extend the gold metal weakness…so nothing is simple or clear…but if the truncation occurred it would leave lots out of the game playing catch up at higher, much higher price…so you see we are trying to get in low and gauge the run up for authenticity….AND bail if the nothing materializes…an other set of determinations…..glta
PAAS Gartley Buy pattern attempting confirmation…Shown weekly..glta
Powell admits letting inflation run to april/june next year…because he is just not seeing it as significant…..
is that signalling a seasonal low in?…time will tell…reason says yes……it may get ever more dear to convert your depreciating dollars into mining shares..quickly and soon……glta
yes Larry, Powell told the market to party on. And it did just that. Now gold should be able to catch a bid in here to at least revisit 1800. Still feel the real reckoning for gold will be at the former 1820/1840 highs.
So far, so good…
Matthew
Nov 02, 2021 02:35 PM
SILJ has anchored VWAP supports that I don’t want to see broken on a closing basis for more than one day.
https://schrts.co/PyrRKkMX
i really really like the ‘anchored vwap’…it is a no go at think or swim…really tells the tale of institutional thinking…they are not letting go…they are keeping the volume enough on buy side to support it above vwap…is that basically how you interpret this matthew??🔊
Yes, it probably is looked at by those who intervene in all sectors and you can be sure that the same is true for moving averages.
I really like this action but let’s see if today’s new MACD sell signal for SILJ matters tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p14445955736
GDXJ had its MACD sell signal yesterday yet it performed very well today after some weakness this morning.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p08820176426
SLV gapped down almost 2% today but still managed to finish the day up a penny. That’s bullish but it too now has a new MACD sell signal which some will act on so any upside action tomorrow could be muted. On the positive side, the 60 minute chart is out of sync with the daily and it just gave a new MACD buy signal on very good volume.
Daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p69024802582
Gold continues to underperform the rest of the sector but that’s better than it outperforming the rest of the sector, especially following what is probably a major low. The market “knows” that inflation is the concern now, not deflation.
GLD printed a bull hammer today but was the only gold-silver related ETF to finish below all of its respective anchored VWAPs.
https://schrts.co/kmkZTTnV
GDX for comparison:
https://schrts.co/kaQYquee
SLV should have been the first comparison:
https://schrts.co/DUGXnWth
i did remain open to deflation until today…i think they closed the door on that happening…unless they loose control and there will be signs of that…..actually it looks like even the general equities will have continued bids through april/may/june….i think the fed assumes another war will be created to bail them?…sad..had to say that….💩
Inflation is always a choice since it comes from central bank counterfeiting (currency debasement). If we get deflation, it will be because they opted for it. Don’t let the deflationists tell you otherwise. What they all have in common is a fundamental misunderstanding of the system and the depraved people who own it.
What the central banks do risk losing control of is confidence but that threatens more inflation or even hyperinflation, not deflation. I’ve always put low odds on a true hyperinflation and still do but the coming inflation could, and most likely will, reach a level that seems a lot like hyperinflation. However, if the central planners want hyperinflation, we’ll get it.
+1
The HUI did very well today considering gold’s showing.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p69210505225&a=982826709
IPT finished 14.3% above yesterday’s low despite silver’s performance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p58805355293&a=1020251213
Gold’s Moment Of Truth Approaches
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by @Goldfinger on 2 Nov 2021
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“The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement and Chairman’s press conference is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon beginning at 2pm EST. To be sure, the FOMC is expected to announce the beginning of a ‘taper’ of asset purchases by slowing its purchases at a rate of $15 billion per month. The keys to the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference comments will be to gauge the flexibility of the taper, and how quickly the Fed may be willing to start the rate hiking cycle.”
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“While most of the world is in complete freak-out mode over rising inflation, the long end of the Treasury yield-curve has remained remarkably placid in recent weeks.”
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“Anyone living in the real world has felt the strong gusts of rising inflation in the last year, however, the Fed has until recently continued to emphasize that it expects inflation to ‘normalize’ within its 2.0%-2.5% target range by mid-2022. It will be interesting to see if the Fed continues to reiterate that it expects inflation to be ‘transitory’, or if it now expects higher than desired inflation to remain with us throughout 2022 – in the latter case it could mean that the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy in an accelerated fashion in order to attempt to reign in some price pressures across the economy.”
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“Gold has spent much of the last four months trading in a roughly $50 range between $1765 and $1815 – the options market does not expect gold to break free from this range this week. However, one has to wonder how long gold can remain range-bound before so much energy has been built up that the dam has to break. ”
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https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/golds-moment-of-truth-approaches