Dana Lyons – Conditions Changing For A Turn Higher In The General Markets; Review Of Overseas ETFs And Commodities
Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of the Lyons Share joins us to unpack conditions that point to a potential turn higher in the US markets. We discuss the continuing rotation trade, where things are shifting from growth back to value, with healthcare and tech having lagged lately, but more potential in financials, energy, cybersecurity, and consumer discretionary sectors. Dana reviews a number of country-specific ETFs where he sees room for growth including Japan, Ireland, Russian, Norway, India, and Indonesia. We wrap up with his outlook on the commodities mostly focused on oil, nat gas, cotton, and copper.
Click here to check out Dana’s site: https://lyonssharepro.com/
Gas Up for the Next Energy Rally
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by Sean Brodrick – October 21, 2021
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“Natural gas has pulled back sharply, down about 20% from a seven-year high it hit on Oct. 5.”
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“So many folks are ready to stick a fork in the nat-gas rally and call it done.”
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• “But if you walk away now, you’re leaving a lot of potential profits on the table. And if you haven’t played the energy rally yet, now is a good time to start.”
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“Despite its recent slip in price, natural gas moved higher on Wednesday, using its 50-day moving average as support and bouncing.”
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https://wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/gas-next-energy-rally/
Freeport Copper Output Falls Short Just As The World Needs More Of The Metal
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Bloomberg News – October 21, 2021
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“Freeport-McMoRan Inc. produced less copper than expected last quarter from its mines in the Americas, adding to concerns over a drum-tight global market that’s seen prices surge back toward record levels.”
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https://www.mining.com/web/freeport-copper-output-falls-short-just-as-the-world-needs-more-of-the-metal/
Dollar Update: “Both Gaps May Fill”
Time: 20211022.1330
/SI (front month) looks like its now forming the right side of a cup, the left side being the previous high on Aug 7 2020 at 29.91 (notwithstanding Feb 1’s transient Wall Street Silver spike this year). There’s a lot of blue sky after that! I hope anyone buying physical got it at $21.50. It might have been your last chance. Ever.
And it now says “Click to Edit”. Cool! But I’m not updating my call…
got my 1800 breach this week. Finally. Now lets see the close above that level as it should lead to a quick trip to 1840 or so where the real consternation should come into play.
Close today below 1800 would be very worrisome, perhaps a well calculated bull trap. Still not betting on that however.
I’m not worried one bit.. your tone of worrisome is a perfect example of climbing the wall of worry and exactly what I want investors to keep thinking. Matt knows exactly what I’m talking about.
There must be a ton of gold set to be sold between 1800 and 1810. Looks like it hung above 1800 for about 3 hours this morning. Until that clears out or the short selling stops at that level gold is just banging its head on a ceiling.
If and when it breaks out it should move nicely.
That’s the story.
I have nearly a doubly already from the average .4-5 cents on my Klondike silver.. It’s on fire and I hope some of you listened and picked some up when I told ya so!
Iamgold on🔥 .. I like what I’m seeing thus far.
If we can get over that $1835 and close there I believe next week can see $1880 for the monthly. $1860-$1880
Glen
Hi Glen.. congrats. on KS.Ive never heard of Klondike silver.I just googled to find the “ticker” I must have been out in timbuck2 with no internet access . Thankyou.
Forgot to ask… been watching aun gpr.. any opinions would be appreciated!! Thanks in advance
Hi Ann. I don’t follow (GPR) Great Panther that closely, and in the past they had had a host of challenges at their operations in Mexico, so it seemed there were better production & exploration/development stories to follow for Silver/Zinc/Lead & now they’ve diversified in Gold as well. However, I’ve not done a deep dive with them for over 2 years, so don’t really have an opinion on what they are doing lately.
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I’m more up to speed with (AUN) Aurcana, as they are currently ramping up into commercial production at their Revenue Virginius mine in Colorado. They’ve had to dilute down existing shareholders a few times over the last 2 years, which created some investment ire from longer-term retail holders, but I’ve always traded in and out of it on the dips & rips and fared much better and remained more constructive on their overall progress in getting R.V. restarted, as the highest grade undeveloped Silver project on the planet.
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The knock against them is that their resource reserves at the mine in Colorado is small, but most investors make that comment but don’t do enough homework. Many folks still haven’t picked up on the lay of the land there in Colorado, and that their entire resource is only on a fraction of the Revenue Virginius vein, and it is still open for expansion and extending mine life to the north and south on that vein, but they also have 8 other veins. They’ve started doing a bit of exploration on the Wheel of Fortune vein, but also plan exploring the Atlas-Cumberland vein, The Terrible vein, the Klondike vein, and the Yellow Rose vein over the next few years, which gives them PLENTY of room to extend the mine life out for years, and Kevin feels even decades.
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In addition they still are doing work at their second mine on care and maintenance (Shafter) in Texas. The prior management team from years back had prematurely brought Shafter into production with a resource estimate, without proper block modeling of the stopes, and did so as the bottom was falling out in the PM prices during the bear market. That was back when Aurcana was silver production story in Mexico, and it was a whole different company, team, and strategy back then. Some people erroneously remember that period and attribute it to now, but it is night and day as to the direction, strategy, and team from that era, and really Aurcana became a whole new company just a few years back. Shafter, however, is a legacy asset from that era, and Kevin & team are exploring it, doing economic studies on it, and plan on having it come into production in a year or two as the Silver prices stay strong and get even stronger in the mid $20’s to high $20’s. If Silver gets above $30, then they may fast-track things there to capture that kind of pricing environment and earn as they learn. Right now they have planned for a Feasibility Study next year, and production in 2023. We’ll keep tabs on how that goes.
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I’m working to Kevin back on the show soon for an update on how things are going with the ramp up into commercial production, but effectively Aurcana is the newest Silver producer in North America, since technically Alexco got started first, but is also still ramping up into commercial production this quarter in Canada.
Hi Ann, just in case you or anyone else is interested or missed this prior interview we did from September with Kevin from Aurcana I’ll post it below, as it provides a good snapshot of where things were at a month and half ago, and should be pretty up-to-date.
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(AUN) (AUNFF) Aurcana Silver – Updates on the restart of the Revenue Virginius Mine and first ore through the mill
– September 1, 2021
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http://www.kereport.com/2021/09/01/aurcana-silver-updates-on-the-restart-of-the-revenue-virginius-mine-and-first-ore-through-the-mill/
Thx Ex for the update, I’ve been accumulating more AUNFF at current prices
Sure thing Buzz. Aurcana is an interesting company and one I believe will get rerated up 2-3 times higher, over the next 2 years, as more people catch on to their story. Some investors balk at investing in Silver companies in Mexico, because of the perceived jurisdiction risk, so when they wake up to the fact there is a new US -based high-grade silver producer, with good exploration upside, and an easy 2 year path into having a second mine in production, then I believe they’ll get a substantial re-rating higher compared to the current market valuation.
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I’ve been building more of a longer-term position in Aurcana this year, and just trading around the core position and want to be more patient with this story and give them 2 years from here to really get Revenue Virginius going full bore, see how they do with expanding their resources at R.V., and then watch the parallel track to production coming back on-line at Shafter moving into 2023.
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Then at that point, and quite possibly with a backdrop of higher metals prices, I may start scaling back out some before first pour at Shafter, but having caught the “Silver runway” higher as they move towards production there in TX with a larger overall production profile.
Can someone please explain to me why I can and did buy Novo Resources at 1.36 US a share? Either this is nuts or I am and right now I just don’t know.
… because someone sold NSRPF at 1.36 ?
Bought some Novo a couple of days ago at 1.31, don’t see a lot of downside here…
I dont know if anyone else has noticed , that the cartel have changed their game plan for the PM’s
Instead of tamping at the open , they are now tamping at the close….. Am i seen things wrong ?
And it’s gone!
Poof!
PM spike snuffed out like a candle in the wind.
Get ready for a royal beat-down.
Low 1700s by end of the month.
Test of 1600 by Thanksgiving.
If you haven’t sold your PMs and miners yet, you’re going to regret it.
Nothing is poof lol 😆
If you know your charts and we’re the big boys are stationed you would have know that the first set of liquidity was that exact $1806/1807 region which I mentioned. The market went up and caught some more at $1813/1814 and we have now successfully retested the breakout which is text book. It will work it’s way through and I have a hunch not a prediction that it will climb that wall of worry by end of day.
Glen
Ps much more liquidity at the $1832-$1840 region..
Hi Joe…. IMO you are wrong, i dont believe for one moment, that we will see those numbers ever again.
Hey Joe, already eating CROW since miners have been rallying strong
There is no poof lol 😆
We went up tagged the liquidity and backtested the breakout in text book fashion.
I’m not predicting but have a hunch it will work it’s way back up by the end of the day. Much more liquidity left above at $1832-$1840 and so on and so forth like Marc Fabre always says in his videos lol
Glen
I think Brixton is about to pop up to .20-.21 soon
Hi Ann thanks for your comments 🙏🏼
Klondike happen to pop up less then a year ago when ex made his list in categories of large cap, small cap, discovery and speculative etc..
I researched the crap out of it and it checked 90% of my checklist when investing in a company
Klondike Silver Corp. is exploring a unique silver-zinc-lead project in southeastern British Columbia, Canada. The Slocan Mining Camp is a brownfields project in a safe and stable jurisdiction. The project has an active Mine Permit, a 100 ton per day mill and a licenced tailings pond facility. The mill is 1.5 hours from Teck Corp.’s Trail lead-zinc smelter. Once additional economic mineralization is identified, production can start almost immediately.
1. Safe jurisdiction
2. Great management team
3. Great board of directors
3. Backed up by sprott
At one point sprott owned 11% of shares
He decreased his share at the recent top but still holds a sizeable amount which he has for his charity or foundation. Regardless he owns
Good amount of insider ownership almost 10%
Hope this helps..
I’m regards to
Thanks Glen.. really appreciate the details on KS.
Glenfidish – Congrats on the move higher in (KS) Klondike Silver. Yes, I actually owned them a few years back but have since rotated into other names, but am happy for you and their team making progress.
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I’m positioned in 2 dozen silver companies (in my personal Silver ETF), but just don’t have much bandwidth to take on any more or keep up with any more, but will try to give Klondike Silver another look sometime soon just to see what they are up to. Cheers!
Ann,
I believe you were asking about great panther and aurucana of which I both don’t currently own.
I think ex or Matt can help you more there.
Great panther is a solid company from what I have heard and see .
Thanks Glenfidish. Yes, I just replied back to Ann up above, mostly on Aurcana (AUN), as I’m a shareholder and much more familiar with their Revenue Virginius mine that is ramping up into production right now as the newest US silver producer.
Along with a few other posters here I was tweaked when I heard Matt Geiger talk about phosphate fertilizer on last Saturday’s show. A New Zealand based company on the TSX-V called Chatham Rock Phosphate ( NZP-V ) has just taken over an Australian phosphate mine. There is such little interest in this market that their shares are selling for 10 to 12 cents. This stock has done nothing but flatline for 8 years, and two years before that it was selling for $40 CDN. Those are crazy metrics. I think I will “POP A TOP” and think about that some more. If I could only read Shad’s mind I would know which stock Matt was talking about but now that he is in management he can’t be one of the boys anymore! LOL!
Hi Urban D. My husband remembers the company.. says it’s been around 30+ years.He also remembers ir making a run years ago to around $10 He doesn’t remember $40.. but.. possible.. and he admits his memory isn’t what it used to be Cheers
New Zealand needs a lot of phosphate otherwise nothing grows there. CXM.AX is another nickel and dime phosphate miner in Australia.
Gensource is a potash company in saskatchewan. slept for years but has a nice run going this year.
Haha! Thanks Urban Dweller. I honestly don’t know the name of the phosphate company Matt Geiger was referencing on last weekend’s show, but sometimes, we have guests that do discuss companies with us off-mic that they are not comfortable sharing on-mic, and we try to respect their privacy reserved for their subscribers. Again, we have some guests like Jordan and Dave Erfle that come on weekly, that prefer to keep their list of companies proprietary for their subscribers, or others like Brian Leni and Brien Lundin that will share companies, but only after a month or two has gone by for their subscribers to get positioned first, which is understandable. Keep in mind, we are just thrilled that they come on the KE Report to share their insights on the markets and the mining sector, and any ideas they share are always appreciated.
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As for being more involved with the day to day operations here, it does keep me much busier than before, but I do try to still be “one of the boys here” as much as possible because I’ve loved this forum and the investors on it for over a decade now, and personally enjoy talking stocks and markets and tossing around ideas with the KER crew.
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Ever Upward!
Very good day and week. +10.18% today.
Agreed Lakedweller2 – overall it was a really nice week in the PMs. Actually the last few weeks have been very constructive with many miners clawing their way back higher, and my portfolio has had a very nice response up substantially since where it was in mid August through mid September.
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I added back my Highgold position again today as I just can’t stop thinking that they’ve really hit the big leagues with their recent drill success, and if there is more to come, I at least want to be back in post discovery hole for the rest of the journey higher. I was in Highgold, but had sold out of it for a tax small tax loss, thinking they’d blown their wad already for the year. Boy was that a mistake as it popped up over 56% shortly thereafter on the eye-popping drill result.
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However, it’s pulled back down some this week, on announcing their financing news to raise $10 Million (which has now been upsized to $12 Million), but that was right move on the back of those results. They found paydirt, and are about to get much more aggressive in drilling that area and potential boiling zone, and testing to see if they also have it on the other side of the fault.
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Personally I felt it was a good time to get back into the mix and throw in a 1st tranche into building back the HIGH position again. I’ll add more to it over time, and especially if it pulls back down a bit more from here, but I definitely wanted a seat at the table for whatever comes next out of that next drill program.
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(HIGH) HighGold Mining Intersects 18.7 g/t Au over 56.6 Meters at JT Deposit, Alaska
– Oct 13, 2021
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https://highgoldmining.com/news/2021/highgold-mining-intersects-18.7-g-t-au-over-56.6-meters-at-jt-deposit-alaska/
Goldupdate! Scorpio woke up! Did anyone notice lol? It’s getting ready so is brixton which is playing mind games. This is the by far the best week I have had in ages. My Klondike and iamgold leading the way I’m up over 90% from the lows and nearing 100% a double. I stacked iamgold/Klondike/
I purchased Both bear creek and USA at there actual lows! I shared everything with you guys… Im not a news letter writer nor do I have a subscription!!! I have said this a million times, many people will perceive to Know and they know shites! Not one called the top! Not one..
Not mocking but boy they had there fun and now all hiding and soon remember glens words, they all called the bottom lmao.
You guys all know who has called the shites!
Cheers
Gold going is going higher to collect? Say it all with me ker family it’s called “ Liquidity” …
Glen
Agreed Glenfidish. I’ve been thrilled with the uplift in the PM miners over the last few weeks, and it has been a big boon for my portfolio of companies as well, and nice to see some big pops higher in so many gold and silver names. I did the lion’s share of my buying in mid August through mid September in a couple dozen names, so those adds ended up working out well and and are nicely in the money at current prices. It’s has been nice to see some green on the screen in the PM mining stocks for sure.
Doc bought the exact bottom in USAS. I followed next day
The dollar looks ready for a plunge on the daily chart and I bet it will start next week unless the stock market sells off (which would put an automatic bid under the dollar).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32345675138&a=1047346933
The Canadian dollar secured a weekly MACD buy signal so it should do more than hold its own next week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11762456729&a=980551499
Still no decisive breakout for gold but it’s coming soon, the miners told me so.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p10102162883&a=1043235982
Still no breakout for HUI vs DIA but it too is coming soon.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3ADIA&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13005944746&a=953633255
GLD topped at fork resistance this week but looks fine.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07249398733&a=1033969208
That top also happened to be at the important weekly P pivot but it did manage to take back the 3 year uptrend support-turned-resistance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70555486890&a=1029011291
Always nice to get what sectors Dana is watching from the short side or long side, and it is interesting that he’s seen enough data in his quantitative analysis that the recent pullback in the general markets may have been it, and that things may be moving back higher again.
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I also look forward to finding out which different nation’s ETFs that Dana thinks may have some upside in front of them. Also, the call for a continued longer term move higher in Oil, Nat Gas, and Copper was good for the commodity sector and underpins the inflation theme. His comment on the expectation for
Cotton to head higher using the ETF (BAL) was a unique call. Good stuff!