Does this bounce in gold and silver change the near-term outlook?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us to recap the pop today in the precious metals and underlying stocks. On the back of inflation data that showed inflation is still high, the PMs are moving higher while the USD and long dated yields are dropping. The key question for metals investors is whether this pop is the start of another substantial leg higher or if the sector will be sold off the to the lower part of the recent range.
Here’s another producer that rarely gets mentioned, that I’ve been adding to recently, as a turn-around story, and it looks like they are getting their ship turned around — Superior Gold.
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(SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold Reports Sustained Production in Third Quarter of 19,379 Ounces and Cash Position Up 18% to $20.5 Million
12 Oct 2021
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https://ceo.ca/@newswire/superior-gold-reports-sustained-production-in-third
In the near-term, Superior may be getting a bit overbought here and due for pullback, so I trimmed a bit back into today’s strength; however, it is starting to look like the worm has turned in SGI both technically and fundamentally for the medium term.
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https://schrts.co/jaGQRyBt
I don’t own Dundee, which didn’t do as well today as other PMs. SGI looked good and IPT took off.
Yeah, I’ve never owned Dundee either, but it just never stood out as a company doing something different than the average of the peer group; but admittedly, I’ve not taken a deep dive in it for about 2-3 years. Did you see a catalyst that could give Dundee an edge?
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In contrast, yeah, the highly torqued (IPT) Impact Silver really had a nice pop today up 13.4%.
> That was over 3 times the move today in IPT over (SILJ) up 4.33%. Nice!!
For a mid-tier producer, (CXB) Caliber Mining sure had a nice move today, up 12.6% on the day. Also nice!!
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(CXB) (CXBMF) Calibre Reports Strong Third Quarter Gold Production and Cash Generation, On Track to Deliver At The High-End of 2021 Production Guidance
Oct 6th, 2021
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https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-reports-strong-third-quarter-gold-producti-3618/
Even the beat up and left-for-dead (MUX) McEwen Mining was up 8.26% on the day.
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https://sayingimages.com/wp-content/uploads/explore-minion-woohoo-meme.jpg
Recent article by Investment Doctor on SA, said it was cheap. Also DPM has 15% stake in small Aussie explorer(STN.AX), that I’ve been watching. Sprott also has 8% of STN.
Thanks Terry for that feedback on Dundee from the Investment Doctor. That is interesting about their stake and Sprott’s stake in Saturn Metals.
Terry, I posted some IPT charts under the Doc Jones interview if you’re interested. I like what I see.
Thanks Matthew, discussed those charts with my wife, who is my personal in house technical analyst.
Happy to own a piece of IPT.
Dollar Updated: https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/10/dollar-week.html
Michael Boutros (Gold & Oil – 26:20) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_LOtGrf64w
Listening to Bloomberg radio today and they actually said that the word transitory is transitory. What a day for the miners.
Haha! Jetty we had joked around about that same thing on here when the Fed actually uttered such nonsense the first time, and had quipped that the only thing transitory was going to be the use of the word “transitory” to refer to inflation. 😉
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Yes, overall it was quite a nice day in the PMs today, with a number of companies up high single-digits and double digits, and overall green across the vast majority of gold and silver stocks. It was also nice to see Gold back up close to $1800 again, and Silver with a $23 handle again, (that move down to $21.41 was a bit nerve-racking that it could open the trap-door down to $18.50-$19).
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So far so good, but after the PM sector has run for most of last week and half of this week already, it is looking a bit short-term overbought, and I lightened up on a few positions this afternoon that had already made nice recoveries from where I added over the last few weeks. Today was a much nicer day for the PMs than usual indeed.
Adrian Day’s Global Analyst – Issue No. 787, 3 pages 10th October, 2021
WHO’S AFRAID OF THE BIG BAD FED? GOLD SHOULDN’T BE
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“The big question on gold investors’ minds, and for good reason, is why gold is not higher given the unprecedented money printing and rising inflation. The second question is when will it change?”
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“To some extent, gold has simply been in a long consolidation after the extraordinary
move early last year, when gold jumped over 30% from its end-March low to earlyAugust high. (The gold stocks more than doubled.) That kind of move—in four months—is extraordinary for an asset that is intended as a hedge and an insurance. Gold is not supposed to do that. Bitcoin…Tesla… perhaps, but not gold! It has been a long consolidation, as month-by-month more and more people give up, while natural gold buyers feel there is no rush to invest.”
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“Gold is down nearly 8% year to date, and was down again in September, which is disheartening. But we should put that in context: gold was up 25% last year, so the pullback is less than one-third of the previous year’s move up. The current gold bull market started at the end of 2015, when gold hit $1,051. Gold cycles, both up and down, tend to be long; indeed the shortest have been the last two, in the 1970s and from 2001 to 2011. And it is not unusual for gold to have mid-cycle corrections, often caused by an extraneous shock.”
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https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gmersr-gafax787.pdf
Where Are We In The Market Cycle?
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Jesse Felder – October 13, 2021
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“Lately, I’ve started to notice many signs suggesting we are now well past the peak in risk appetites. To begin with, Citi’s panic/euphoria model, developed by Tobias Levkovich (and renamed in his honor after he sadly passed away last weekend), is a terrific visual representation of this phenomenon. In the early part of this year, it soared to a new high, taking out the high put in just over 20 years ago, at the height of the Dotcom Mania. It has since rolled over from that peak although it remains in extreme territory.”
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“The popularity of Robinhood’s trading app is another important indicator. Bloomberg reports, ‘Robinhood’s app downloads, a proxy for account openings, fell 78% in the third quarter compared with the second,’ said JPMorgan analysts, citing tracking data from Apptopia… Daily active users plunged 40% during the period.” Animal spirits have clearly sustained a damaging blow in recent months; whether that blow proves fatal, though, will be revealed in time.”
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/13/where-are-we-in-the-market-cycle/
The dollar is done for awhile:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p43158090591&a=1039526744
Rejected at P for the last 3 weeks:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66021963345&a=534540070
Dolllar Done like Dinner
Roasted Dollar, Dollar Flambe, Dollar Under Glass, Dollar & Onions, Dollar-Wellington, Dollar Cacciatore, Texas BBQ Dollar, Dollar Tar-Tar, Seared Dollar, Dollar Congee, Upside-Down Dollar, Dollar Pie, Apple-Brown Dollar, Dollar with Shrimp.
That’s about it.
The dollar is done like dinner.
Any thought on Gaunajauto GSVRF? First pour (well, concentrate) this month.
John, I don’t follow GSVR but it looks good technically. It took back it’s 50 day MA yesterday and 200 day MA today and is way above its upper Bollinger band today after closing above it yesterday. Its RSI hit a 5 month high today, too…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSVR.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p52897949058&a=1043041436
Stockcharts doesn’t support the US listing so I had to chart it in Canadian dollars.
Yes they spiked yesterday & today, partly due to the PM prices, and (I think) also after the CEO talked with Michelle Makori yesterday…300% IRR with a breakeven around $17 dollar silver (over 36 months, to pay back their financing & capex). I think their $80M market cap is about 40% where it should be based on $22 silver. More exploration and/or higher Ag prices start to make it look interesting.
Thanks!
It’s interesting to note the Dr Copper is back up to $4.50 again. There was a time a few years back when investors in the red metal would have been cheering from the rooftops about this, and now it seems few even care. What a strange environment…
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https://www.investing.com/commodities/copper
Another commodity that is just ripping higher is Zinc. 2-3 years ago it was between $.90-$1.00, and it is now up to $1.60. This is a huge boon for polymetallic base metals producers (including many of the Silver producers) that have a nice Zinc kicker, or that produce Zinc concentrates.
AXU finally got a heartbeat, +8.5%
I don’t have Hecla currently but it peeked under the 400dma but closed back above it,..for 4th time.
What does that say? :O
Goldfinger touted Eagle plains, EGLF, EPL. I bought this week after some chithouse drill results last week.
I think he gets some kick back from them and is a shareholder. They have U308, REE, PLG, Pm’s.
It gave me 8.5% today
Goldfingers video promo, DYOd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzllRWrOQKw&ab_channel=CEOTechnician
This old format was much easier to navigate. This new format is mediocre and difficult
to navigate.
Hey Mike, We are working on cleaning that up. The website that launched was unfortunately not like the draft we had approved. We are working with the web developer to clean it up. Hopefully it will be better by the end of the day or at worst the end of the week.
(SVM) Silvercorp to buy China’s Kuanping project in $13.5M deal
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Oct. 13, 2021
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“Silvercorp Metals +1.9% post-market after saying its Henan Found Mining subsidiary won an auction to acquire a 100% interest in the Kuanping silver-lead-zinc-gold project in China for $13.5M, including the assumption of debt.”
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“Silvercorp says previous exploration has defined six silver-lead-zinc vein structures and one gold-silver vein structure.”
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https://seekingalpha.com/news/3752648-silvercorp-to-buy-chinas-kuanping-project-in-135m-deal
This is the 2nd time in the last year that Silvercorp has won an auction on another Chinese Silver/Zinc/Lead/Gold mine. They continue to make acquisitions on the cheap, and are already an extremely well run company with the lowest All-In Sustaining Costs in the Silver space, and now they have increased their number of mines and production profile.
We are seeing a few good acquisitions in the miners this week, with the Santacruz Silver acquisition outlined down below as well. Exciting times, and nice to see the silver producers being opportunistic in these depressed PM markets.
(AMX) (AMXEF) Amex Drills High Grade Gold from HGZ Zone of Perron Including up to 43.74 g/t Gold over 6.90 Metres in Shallow Hole and 28.64 g/t Gold over 5.00 Metres at Depth
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13 Oct 2021
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https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/amex-drills-high-grade-gold-from-hgz-zone-of-perron
(SCZ) (SZSMF) Santacruz to Acquire Glencore’s Producing Silver Mines in Bolivia Creating a New Significant Latin American based Silver Producer
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13 Oct 2021
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-Creation of a significant Americas-focused silver producer approaching senior status, with additional significant leverage to the zinc market
-Diversifies production across a robust portfolio of producing mines and creates a platform for future growth
-Assets include five producing mines, two exploration projects, three milling facilities, one trading company and two power plants (thermo and hydroelectric) among the most relevant
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https://www.santacruzsilver.com/news/santacruz-to-acquire-glencores-producing-silver-mines-in-bolivia-creating-a-new-significant-latin-american-based-silver-producer/
That’s a very exciting acquisition from (SCZ) Santacruz Silver of Glencore’s Bolivian Silver/Zinc assets.
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5 mines! Boom!
A very short video , 8 minutes.
The History of Silver from Roman Era till Today.
Still adjusting to the new format. Old man syndrome. Hate change. Anyways here’s a clip from Justin on uranium.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=11bTbj88FK8
Dollar : Closing The Gap
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/10/dollar-week.html
The Australian dollar is going much higher:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAD&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p78359588527&a=1013957658
Ditto WOLF…………….. If, it ain’t broke don’t fix it…… state of the art…. humbug…. 🙂
But it’s nice knowing that if we ever have another toilet paper shortage, you can just go to Chase and get a stack of ones.
Miners getting oversold bounce.
They will test thier lows again once bounce is over.
Wrong again Big P.
Curious about Dundee(DPM). It’s always under the radar never gets mentioned.