Christopher Aaron – Gold and Silver Technical Update – Weakness ahead but what’s important is the Dow:Gold ratio
Christopher Aaron, Founder of iGold Advisors and Senior Editor for Gold Eagle joins us to share his technical insights for gold and silver. We also discuss what he is seeing in the Dow:gold ratio that is foretelling some additional weakness in the Us markets compared to gold.
Christopher also introduces a new Private Placement service for his clients and a company he thinks offers a great risk/reward balance at current levels. The Company is Provenance Gold Corp (CSE:PAU – US:PVGDF).
Enjoyed listening. Aaron has some interesting concepts to consider.
As for today’s action, no one seems to give a damn that gold is over $1800 since about half of my screen of mining shares are still in the red. Uninterested?
Hate to think what silver explorers will be when and if silver heads to $18-19 region Aaron is contemplating. Gotta find a new hobby I guess.
Good thoughts Silverdollar. Yes, the apathy in the mining shares despite a relatively good Gold and Silver price has been the case for a while now, but this too shall pass.
John Rubino made a solid point yesterday that even if Gold flatlined at $1800 and if Silver stayed in the $23-$26 range for a few more quarters, most of the producers would still be making money, paying down debt, funding more drilling, and be poised to make acquisitions. Eventually some generalist investors will recognize that and see the actual business of mining is finally working well, while simultaneously many other sectors growth is slowing, for a myriad of reasons.
As for Christopher’s point about the lower support levels in Silver at $21.50 and then $18.50-$19, yes I had commented to him afterwards that I didn’t want to think about what a move down like that would do to the silver miners. That would be a bummer. However, to his point it would be only be a few bucks down, and while it would really clear the sentiment in the whole sector. Christopher also believes that it would be the last time those low prices would be available for a decade, and would be the buying opportunity of a generation.
Unfortunately, I’ve already bought 2 dozen silver miners, and used most of my dry powder, so if we saw Silver fall out of bed, I’d have to do some horse trading to sell gold stocks to buy the silver stocks. All the dry powder raised recently in my portfolio by selling Uranium stocks is spoken for already, and I plan on rotating back into Uranium stocks as they correct and have it earmarked for that, not silver.
Here’s a different take on Silver, where this analyst already sees it as a solid contrarian play at current levels.
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Silver Chartbook – Silver Is Your Best Strategy
Sep. 13, 2021 – Florian Grummes – Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454911-silver-chartbook-silver-is-your-best-strategy
I too feel your despair as I want it all yesterday! It doesn’t, however, seem to work that way! I have dry powder against all my instincts to buy against the wisdom of Doc and others on this show. It will eventually come our way. Patience has been the hardest virtue for me to apply. I love the integrity of those who participate here!
FIH, hang in there–your time will come—the conventional market is in the process of breaking down and a lot of the PM stocks have had the worse take place already even though they have a little farther to fall—look for double bottoms related to the lows in March of 2020. I actually nibbled a little today and added to my Equinox position even though it’ll move lower probably one more time after its’ current move up. The miners yawning today at the gold price moving hire tells you volumes—-we have more time and work to go.
Good comments guys. I agree FIH, one of the hardest things in investing is being patient and letting the market come to you, when the desire is to get in there and be active. I also love the integrity of those who participate here at the KER.
Doc – great comments as always and I concur that at this point the worst is over in many of the PM stocks, even if there is still a little more weakness to chew through.
Nice that you were nibbling and chewing on a bit of Equinox lately. The last time I added to EQX was on Aug 20th at $5.94 and it closed today at $7.36, so that has worked out, but I was hoping to add more if we got another pullback, and so far it mostly just ran higher so I left it alone to chase other shiny objects. Haha!
Doc,
I sense that charade will continue with conventional markets a little longer. I watch these etf’s and I feel that algos basically levitating the price action. The strength indicator is diverging big time.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty071921.html
Provenance Gold is Cheap
Bob Moriarty
Archives
Jul 19, 2021
No matter how large the avalanche becomes, they all begin with a single excess snowflake. No one can really predict which snowflake will initiate the cascade of snow but when all of the conditions fall into place predicting an avalanche isn’t rocket science.
Tether is a $60 billion dollar fraud under the $1,286,628,619,070 total cliptocurrency market. Grant Williams recently did a free podcast on Tether. If you have over $.50 invested in any of the shit coins, you need to watch the video. Tether is the keystone holding the entire mess together. It’s 100% con backed by nothing but bullshit. When people eventually wake up, the market is going to collapse overnight.
One of the two software engineers who designed and released Dogecoin as a joke in 2013, Jackson Palmer, put out a series of Tweets a few days ago talking about Dogecoin and the entire space, he got it pretty right. Three months ago Dogecoin just about touched $100 billion after being pimped by Elon Musk. Dogecoin remains a joke and only time will tell if the buyers of Dogecoin are even bigger jokes.
The world’s financial system is a giant balloon reaching out for the nearest pin. Look for success in its search between now and October when everyone will finally realize that in fact the King really has no clothes.
We have been in a correction in the resource space. As I pointed out in one of my finance books, stocks go up and stocks go down. That’s so simple to understand that most people don’t. If they own a great stock, they expect it to go up every day. Sorry Charlie, it doesn’t work that way. Last week was brutal but I have been pruning some of my 400% plus gainers and moving the proceeds into good companies that aren’t as well known.
Daily I become more and more convinced that if you want to profit in the junior space, you have to trade stocks. It really is as simple as buying cheap and selling dear.
I was buying NFG at $2, why wouldn’t I be selling some when it broke $13? That’s a 550% profit. I invest to make a profit. As good as NFG is and it will be far higher in the years ahead, I had a great profit. Now the stock is down 33% from its high and nothing at all has changed.
So I have been looking for cheap stocks to put money into. Recently I found one. Good story and management and a couple of solid projects in the US, relatively free of Resource Nationalism. So far.
Provenance Gold (PAU-C) ticks all the boxes for me. It’s in Nevada near Newmont’s Long Canyon mine. The White Rock property has had 65 drill holes, most going back to 1985-1989 that had 191 intercepts between 0.34 g/t gold to 5.7 g/t gold with intervals between 10 and 95 feet. The gold mineralization seems to be 3.2 km by 1.6 km. The previous drilling was widely spaced between 200 and 900 feet between holes. Provenance believes the project contains a large near surface oxide gold system suitable for heap leaching. Drilling has begun at White Rock in the past week. Management has planned and budgeted for a 5,000-meter drill program of 30-40 drill holes in total.
White Rock contains a total of 258 claims or 5,160 acres. The option calls for Provenance to pay the vendor a total of $250,000 over a four year period for a 100% interest subject to a 2% NSR with a $25,000 advance royalty payment due yearly after the property has been paid for.
Provenance Gold has an excellent Plan B to follow up on when they have completed drilling at White Rock. They have a wholly owned prior high grade silver mine at their Mineral Hill silver project consisting of 9 patented claims, 160 acres of private homestead land and 20 unpatented claims. The company purchased the ground for 3 million shares of Provenance and cumulative payments of $195,000 and escalating work commitments over an eight-year period.
Mining at Mineral Hill began in 1868 at an initial reported grade of 140 ounces per ton. Processing and mining continued until 1939 with reports suggesting an average grade of 25 ounces of silver for the tonne.
Readers should remember that in the early days of mining silver in Nevada the ore was hand sorted and loaded on mule trains to be shipped to San Francisco for further shipping to Cornwall in England for processing. As such they only shipped the highest-grade rock.
Surface sampling by Provenance Gold shows grades between 50 and 1,215 grams per tonne silver. Large volumes of broken rock in various mine dumps around the property show grades between four to eight ounces of silver to the ton.
While I like the White Rock project it does not have the barn burning potential of assays that the Mineral Hill project does. Provenance Gold will begin drilling Mineral Hill for silver after the White Rock drilling is complete. I understand the labs are already backing up so Provenance may well move their drill rig to Mineral Hill while they await assays for White Rock. The advantage of Mineral Hill is that with the kind of grade they can expect there, an XRF machine can give them a lot of information about mineralization.
Mineral Hill has never had modern exploration. With the grades of silver that they have already found, the project has a target rich potential for both discovery and moving the needle for investors.
Provenance Gold is an advertiser. I have bought shares in the open market so naturally I am biased. Do your own due diligence.
Provenance Gold Corp
PAU-C $.115 (Jul 16, 2021)
PVGDF-OTCQB 53.6 million shares
Provenance Gold website
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Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold
Archives
Nice Mike. I didn’t realize Bob M. was covering Provenance Gold Corp.
Thanks for sharing that with us!
I’ve been buying little chunks of this on weakness since I read this post. I like the story – perhaps that is why I’m also into Summa Silver. A past producing mine that has been forgotten about coming back to life. Another one that fits in that mold is Lakewood Exploration. It is now on my list.
It is funny but something about miners makes it hard for me to sell them. I can get into and sell off oil companies and tech stocks like AMD on a moments notice but mines are real and I find parting with them hard. I need to pay more attention to Bob’s statement: “Daily I become more and more convinced that if you want to profit in the junior space, you have to trade stocks. It really is as simple as buying cheap and selling dear.”
Ha…. we think alike…. concerning the last line… (since we were posting at the same time)
Yes, personally, I agree 100% with Bob M’s statement there, and have always looked the mining stocks as trades that you buy the dips and sell the rips, and have made far more money trading partial tranches around a core position, than just buying and holding. These stocks have not been the “buy right and sit tight” blue chip generalists stocks like Apple or IBM, and instead are cyclical, and there are tinier cycles within medium cycles that can be exploited, even though there are larger secular trends in motion.
Even though the Uranium stocks have had massive moves higher lately, which have been fantastic, I’ve traded many of the Uranium stocks dozens of times since the late 2016 bottom in the Uranium spot prices and made far more money swing trading them for cumulative multi-baggers, than this recent burst higher has provided. For example, with (UUUU) Energy Fuels I’ve already traded it over 2 dozen times just this year (adding or trimming around the core position), and they have real mines and assets and are a legit U stock, but there are always corrective moves to buy, and impulse legs higher to sell.
It’s no different in any other commodity sector’s mining stocks (Gold/Silver, Copper, Oil, Lithium, Palladium, Nickel, etc…).
In the generalist markets, those really have been a buy right and sit tight market for the last 12 years since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.
“Daily I become more and more convinced that if you want to profit in the junior space, you have to trade stocks. It really is as simple as buying cheap and selling dear”……PER BOB..
Interesting…. JMO
First time I have heard that one… in 20 yrs…
Readers should remember that in the early days of mining silver in Nevada the ore was hand sorted and loaded on mule trains to be shipped to San Francisco for further shipping to Cornwall in England for processing. As such they only shipped the highest-grade rock.
Great bit of info to keep in mind and having recently photographed an old mine last worked in the 1930’s I can see why that is true. The place is 2/3 the way up a mountain and the road to it is amazing. Getting equipment to it will be a challenge and getting ore out of it will be equally daunting so cleaning it as much as possible seems a good idea.
Isn’t there a company out there that goes around and re-processes tailing to make money.
Isn’t there a company out there that goes around and re-processes tailing to make money.
HEY EX………. the above is a good question for you….
Hi OOTB and Mike,
There are a few that come to mind:
Jubilee Platinum – reprocesses Platinum Chrome and Nickel tailings and was a big gainer for me in the portfolio from 2020 into 2021, but I’ve sold out of it at this point waiting for more of a sell down than we’ve already seen to reenter the stock again.
There is also Newlox Gold, who is a small scale producer by processing old tailings in Costa Rica.
There are a few other mining companies proposing to reprocess tailings as part of their strategy, like Tarachi Gold getting ready to move that into production, or Avino Silver and Gold has some tailings to reprocess. There are a few others that escape me at present.
One could also make the case that what Andean Precious Metals is doing by moving waste gravel pits into production through “mine waste reclamation” is a similar process as well.
Then there are all the toll millers buying ore from smaller mines, but that’s a bit of a different animal.
THANKS EX……….. You da man…. I knew you knew… 🙂
Sounds like a good business for IRISH and ME… to get into… lol 🙂
Of course , if, I have to wear a mask… the deal .. is off… lol
Thanks OOTB. Yes, You and Irish could make a killing in that kind of business.
Actually, tailing processing is really easy. It’s basically a pile of waste that still has economic grades in it, but it already got crushed and refined, so usually you just throw it on a heap leach pad or run it through a mill, and boom, the company is producing. They key is find a large enough and high-grade tailings deposit that is worth the candle. Jubilee has done a fantastic job with the Platinum/Chrome/Nickel tailings deposits left behind as waste in South Africa.
With Newlox they are just consistently doing tiny ones.
Andean Precious Metals has a waste gravel to mine turnkey thing going in Bolivia that is quite profitable as well. We had them on the show a while back.
E.B. Tucker: Fed Will Never Taper Because Consequences Will Be ‘Catastrophic’
Kitco News – Sep 14, 2021
0:00 – Monetary policy
5:06 – Inflation
10:30 – Billionaires investing in base metals
12:36 – Precious vs. base metals
13:46 – Cost of borrowing/low yield
17:00 – Metalla Royalty & mining
21:20 – Fedcoin
It is stunning to me that folks can’t see the ultimate truth of this statement: “Fed Will Never Taper Because Consequences Will Be ‘Catastrophic’ ”
The Fed is trapped – they cannot taper or raise rates to any real extent. Will they really watch the retirement plans of the middle class invested in Cathie Wood’s Ark stuff and other go-go stuff like Tesla go poof? Re: her – her latest statement is classic: “China isn’t a great place to invest. But we don’t want to avoid it. In fact, we want to invest, but steer clear of companies making the largest profits. We’re selling these companies. We still own some companies that make very little profit. We like these better.”
WTF?????? I can still be amazed.
It’s ‘Krell Money’ — just another zero!
Great points guys.
Haha BDC – Forbidden Planet… a classic. Exactly. +000
(WM) (WLBMF) Wallbridge Further Expands Gold Mineralization to the East and Northwest at Fenelon with 11.60 g/t Au over 14.05 metres and 9.00 g/t Au over 10.00 metres
15 Sep 2021
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/wallbridge-further-expands-gold-mineralization-to-the
(VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Silver Announces Closing Date for Spinout of Vizsla Copper to Vizsla Silver Shareholders
14 Sep 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-silver-announces-closing-date-for-spinout-of
IPT is acting well…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92802699484&a=1024983509