Recapping the moves this week – Fed Statement, Commodities selloff and USD bounce
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc to Market blog joins me to share what caught his eye this week in markets. The focus is on the pop in the USD and drop in commodities, especially precious metals.
This is a friggin raid on metals so no one’s gonna be right and no chart is going to accurately predict where the bleeding could stop. From what I have learned from sources, banks wants to break $1700 maybe even 1680.
Good luck out there.
The gold chart looks like much more downside. That’s no big deal. The big deal is industrial metals, specifically copper. With industrial metals going down, something “is up”.
Hopefully the industrial metals hold.
I’m not worried about copper at all. It IS going down for awhile and much more than gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87421146593
The same goes for commodities in general.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56324046113
I agree about commodities getting hit. In fact, they look like they are going to get smoked, across the board.
That’s what scares me. As in, what’s going to happen to cause that…?? Just sayin)
Those who don’t understand cycles/technical action will blame it on the economy or (soon to be) falling stock market when it is really just time for a break after massive parabolic moves. Lumber has already come way off its high and for good reason after that arguably unwarranted 6-fold rise. The cure for high prices remains high prices.
Gold and silver are leading the commodities complex as they should since inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. So, they made their initial post-covid crash highs about 9 months ahead of commodities and will head much higher while commodities spend many months correcting. The stock market is also due for an intermediate correction.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01986051900
I bet our clue that the end of the decline is near will be the widespread positive divergence of our miners versus gold. The low could easily happen on Monday and reversal better powerful whenever it happens, in my opinion. Any move below 33 for GDX will suggest a problem unless it is very brief.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98861046287&a=975429213
1730-ish marks almost 3 year old uptrend support so maybe the banksters are aiming to break it so they (and friends) can cover a lot of short positions.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25997057087&a=932118912
That’s what I’m thinking also. If they break $1700, all hell can break lose. Engineer the total chaos and bloodbath.
Based on weekly closes, here’s a nearly 4 year uptrend support that breaks at about 1736 next week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77880530866&a=975478992
It might be the 5.5 year-old bull-to-date uptrend that needs a test since it was not even touched in March.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p06708265940&a=931873171
Cover shorts is the best explanation. The last thing they need is a real and big move up in the price of physical.
ASA is very close to multiple supports.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17659835289&a=817633322
/GC 30 minutes…Much stronger RSI divergence w price than yesterday…You will have to hold gold products over the weekend to benefit…Also, /GC is in a daily TD6 count of 9…So the momentum exhaustion down by this method is due Tuesday to Thursday….I will not trade daily off of a single 30 minute indication appearing completed….https://tos.mx/elwnaTH
Good to hear Eric’s voice again! Health issues for we old guys are never easy………
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Eric-Sprott-Returns-Weekly-Wrap-Up-June-18-2021
Thanks for the link. I’ve always perceived Eric Sprott to be a good guy and his honesty about vaccine concerns help to confirm it. It is commendable that he has chosen to address the subject despite having already been vaxxed himself. I would be very surprised if Guistra, Friedland, or Beatty were to do the same.
I hope very much that his health issues are purely coincidental.
Matthew, I always found it interesting, from what I’ve read, that Beatty has attended more than one of the overseas Dav os crowd meetings. I’ve not heard him share any news that’s comes out of them though. Wish he would.
Beatty also promotes the nonsense that CO2 is negative and should be limited.
Sprott…. is a couple of steps behind on the vaccine concerns……..
Guistra, I bet knows all about the vaccine, with hilly and billy and gates giving him the info.
Sprott’s willingness to look at the vaccines critically and openly is the important thing. I don’t think 90% of the masses are capable of that, especially when there is any possibility of a disturbing discovery.
My understanding is that Eric’s heath issues that came about at the end of last year had nothing to do with the vaccine. The wife and I are older that Eric, so took the vaccine because I “don’t have to worry about long term effects”…….there is no long term! Why anyone under 65 takes it I just don’t get…..sheeple I guess. Or just like being is phase two or three trials?
I don’t know why but I thought you were much younger than Eric. Maybe it’s because successful mining stock speculators typically possess a youthful optimism!
I would agree…….. that Sprott’s willingness to critically and openly comment is fine….
It is a shame, that so many are so slow to comment on such, when a lot of info has already been discovered and commented on for 15 months are longer……that is all I am saying,
If, anyone would have been on the orphan side(political section), they would already be miles ahead…….concerning the mask, cdc, fauci fraud and etc……
are to or…..
btw………… no problem here…….thanks for sharing……
silver viper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-7xMgNcnIQ
oops……..supposed to be:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0EhOmy6Nw4
Disgusting corruption.
Sold my gold short and purchased a “tad” of Brixton, Lion One, Nomad Royalty and Equinox. Aaaaaah, how I love these pullbacks—-it’ll be candy store time soon.
Doc,
Can you please let the viewers know what your total percentage is currently in the miners? The reason I ask is if we turn swiftly, many might be confused if you say you are 99% in. Last time i checked you were 60ish% percent in? I can’t remember
Also I’m a bit confused as to your actions. You keep stating that June will be red completely and miners will be down… Can you verify if you believe gold bullion is making a new low since your very pessimistic with the miners or you see a sharp reversal in July?
I think myself and the audience want to know your overall stance with price of gold and how much your in.
You spoke anoint being short last week, so that’s a good trade for you. I wish you would have been vocal about it and if you did I’m sorry because I don’t remember you saying that.
I get called out every time but I always say what I’m doing before it’s done.
I’m glad you say today in record you closed your shorts.
So please if you can elaborate on your positions and do you see gold breaking into new lows because it sure sounds like it in your tone?
Thanks doc
Glen, I’m going to give my update on the PM markets on Monday with Cory—I’ll lay out my thoughts then. Awhile back I said I was only 37% in the miners and would add more on the next pullback which we are currently in. I’m currently 41% right now having added with this pullback. My % will be higher in the near future when I think most of this catharsis is over. If we start to take out the 200 day simple moving averages on some of these good PM companies and stocks in the future then I believe we’re in a world of hurt—-on Monday I will make it perfectly clear that I’m not yet concerned about the fact we’re still in good shape with these PMs. Good hearing from you.
“200 WEEK simple moving averages” not 200 day moving averages.
Doc,
Your 100% correct. I did say long ago that the best price to buy iamgold long trend is between 3.30 -3,80 cad not us ticker.. absolute best is below 2 on cad
If your scenario works out then I would Expect gold to break the double bottom? Matthew would you not think the same if we head that far down, we are technically screwed into a September/October mow vs now?
Thanks doc for your thoughts
I hope that is not the case but won’t rule it out
Glen, next week if we get a catharsis I’ll add to IAG. I know that’s one of your holdings.
Thank you for bring up IAG, it had fallen off my radar…………
http://www.wallstreetonparade.com
JP Morgan, cITI Bank and BofA “infit”…
infit=unfit
Goldupdate
$1764 was my number and we came within 3 bucks of it..The weekly candle did what it was suppose to do! Iamgold filled its monthly gap..
If the bottom is not in today it will be on monday as i previously stated by i expect bt tuesday we are going higher.
Matts number or worse case scenario is very possible my number down there would be$1734..
We could have seen the bottom today..If not Monday..
glen