Trading strategy for silver stocks and a long term outlook for gold
Doc joins me today to share his recent trading strategy in silver stocks within his portfolio during and after the short squeeze. We then look at the long term gold chart (below) as Doc provide his outlook moving into next year.
Bought some SILJ at 15.45 yesterday along with Galleon Gold at .095 and a couple others.
SILJ:GLD weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73947369572&a=886565661
Hi Matthew – I noticed you use logarithmic scale for most of your charts. Do you have any particular reason for that like “they work better with Andrews Pitchforks”? I have heard some analysts say they use linear scale for shorter time frames (daily or less) and Lograrithmic scale for longer term (monthly) and view weekly using both scales. Thanks and good trading.
Charles, it became a habit due to my preference for stocks that can provide large moves. I did give arithmetic charts a fair try years ago but found that log charts work better for me overall and by a wide margin. I don’t have a strong preference on very short term (intraday) charts so I usually stick with log for those too.
If I were actively trading something like MSFT or AMZN, something with far smaller price swings, I might gravitate to the arithmetic chart to amplify the moves that I’m focused on capturing.
Thanks Matthew!
Thanks to the dumb-money reddit hype, the sector might need to chop sideways for a few days.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=9&id=p24756729706
Days is not bad… more months is bad.
Thanks for the charts as always….only a few days????….hope that’s all.
Hi Matthew, how long do you see this correction for Impact Silver and Kootenay lasting, I was thinking of adding some. Thanks DT
Hi DT, I think both have bottomed so I consider days of weakness to be a time to buy. But if you’re going to hold for months, I think the current prices are perfectly good (and there’s no guarantee they’ll get better).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p16618406067&a=879056747
Thanks Matt, good answer! LOL! DT
Matt great answer!
I think there is more downturn but I don’t think the low will be broken!
When I click on “OLDER POSTS” at the bottom of the page, I get the same list of posts that I already see. It’s been like this for a long time. Thanks.
Hi Rolf, thanks for reaching out. My webmaster is looking into the problem. Sorry for the issue, hopefully we will have it fixed soon.
You can access older posts if you first click on KER COMMENTARY at the top left side of the page and then go down to the bottom and click OLDER POSTS.
Or you can start by clicking here: http://www.kereport.com/category/audio/
OLDER POSTS at the bottom will work.
Novo moving more than usual. Could be permitting.
Looks like the bottom is in for Novo in time for the gold pour starting in 6 weeks, and for BM’s book.
Bonzo, you could be right about that—I got too cute on that one and will now have to add tomorrow at higher prices.
I took some silver profits Monday and bought a good slug of Novo. It was nice to see silver reverse and Novo take off two days later. Might buy more in the morning. Hoping for a pull back at the open. We will see. Fun times.
I raised a lot of cash Mon. morning by selling AG and MUX. I bought NSRPF@ 1.75, TSGZF@.20, IRVRF@ 1.45, NFGFF@2.68, and ESKYF and ELRRF too. These should have more fireworks than AG and MUX but I kept some of those just in case.
Those are some great picks Bonzo. I wish I had pulled the trigger on getting into Eloro when we last spoke about it. An opportunity missed!
Let’s hope that Bob M’s book becomes a #1 best seller and becomes the talk of the Hamptons this summer. Hope Gatsby enjoys it and that the Robin Hood boys take Novo to $20
I noticed the move up today in Novo, and wandered if something had been announced. I haven’t really been trading my Novo position, and just have it as a hold for the medium-term production at Beaton’s Creek, and longer term development of the conglomerate gold using ore sorting as Comet Well/ Purdy’s Reward and Egina. Wishing the Novo team all the success they deserve.
Ah. Bob M’s new book is out that discusses Novo. I knew something was up…
_________________________________________
What Became of the Crow?
Inside the greatest gold discovery in history
By Robert Moriarty
“Every great gold discovery has a unique element that made it a reality. At Grasberg, miners solved “unbeatable terrain challenges”, accessing a vertical mountain peak to mine one of the world’s largest copper – gold deposits. For the Klondike Gold Rush, a prospector shook gold nuggets out of a streamside bush while building a fire to cook his food. At Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi, a legendary minefinder spent his last dollar drilling one last hole. In South Africa’s Witwatersrand, a simple prospector’s find belied the fact that, instead of a short life, a gigantic mineralized deposit would be tapped, giving up 40% of all the gold ever mined. But that was then… What if now, in a bone-dry portion of Australia, a mammoth gold deposit defying superlatives is on the cusp of being born? The elements? A rogue-thinking geologist, a cantankerous newsletter analyst and a financial heavyweight addicted to long-shot asymmetric bets looked at “the evidence” in a way no one else had done before. And proposed a new theory that – not unlike the Wits – a massive multiple layered, wildly-profitable goldfield lay before them that could be mined. For decades. In your hands is The Inside Story of the Greatest Gold Discovery in History!”
(NVO) (NSRPF) Novo Resources On The Verge of WA Gold Production
Matt Birney – Business News (02/04/2021)
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Novo-on-the-verge-of-WA-gold-production
Hey bonzo,
You maybe 100% right your one smart cookie. I will just say that my patterns although not 100% focused on silver, have it going down to $24 bucks.. does not mean it miners will break new lows but it does mean be considerate lol!!
Glen
NOVO RECEIVES FINAL REGULATORY APPROVALS AND PROVIDES AN OPERATIONAL UPDATE FROM BEATONS CREEK
Novo Resources Corp. leo@novoresources.com via mailchimpapp.net
I got this today
Doc, how lowl do you think (MUX), McEwen will reach before it is advantageous to buy again? I sold like you did and am waiting to get back in. Also, what do you think of Avino silver (ASM)?
Pardu, I believe ASM gets back to $1.00–$1.25 trading range again and I wouldn’t be surprised to see MUX get back to sub $1.00. I’ll try to remember to mention when I take positions again.
Hi Doc – Do you own any Gold Standard Ventures? Volume really exploded on Friday and Monday, but the Bolly bands are still pretty loose on the daily, but weekly and monthly are tightening. I am hoping that it goes back to the bottom of the trading range on the daily, but I am not sure it will at this point.
Charles, I own a ton of GSV and was looking at the chart recently. I like the monthly chart—the stock is definitely bottoming and I plan on purchasing some more.
Thanks for your thoughts DOC and good to know!
Hi Charles & Doc. I’ve been considering adding to my GSV position as well, because it’s ounces in the ground will be getting related higher on the next leg higher. Gold Standard Ventures also is wearing a M&A target on their back, and we are going to wake up one morning to a news release that one of the big boys has scooped them up for a 40-60% premium.
I decided to add a bit of GSV during the selloff in the PMs today, amongst adding to Impact, Hecla, Aurcana, and Minera Alamos.
I did the same Ex.
Doc and Pardu,
If you listeners at all to my morning gold update! You may get your wish Monday or Tuesdays..
Glen
hi glenfidish
what do you think is going to happen on monday/tuesday?
DOC,
What are your thoughts on PAAS? I hold a several thousands. I read Ross Beaty is retiring as Chair, not that it matters much but I’d like your thoughts on its technicals.
And oh, are you still in Michigan? I’m visiting Lansing area for business work. I remember you reside in GR, Holland area.
Hi, Cali; PAAS is trading in a nice range like a lot of the silver stocks. It’s a purchase around 28 when it moves down to it again. If you’re ever in Michigan on another trip in the spring, summer, or fall; give me a shout out and we might be able to get together. I’m in Florida right now and will be here until the end of February.
Thanks and sounds good DOC. I will be in Michigan again in Summer. Maybe should meet up then! Also, what are your thoughts on JP Morgan downgrading the entire mining sector? Timing couldn’t be more suspicious.
The timing is suspicious but they could be right this time. It could be a rough 4 months coming up. There are some technical signs that are disturbing at present.
Pierre Lassonde has recently been buying quite a few shares of Prime Mining, SYL-PRYM. DT
What does Excelsior think?
Hi BDC. What do I think regarding what? I spent most of the day hiking in nature and then hanging out on a beach looking at the mountains and sky with my lady, trying not to think too much about the markets for a breather. 😉
Sounds like my kinda fun!
It was nice getting out in nature, getting fresh air, and getting away from glowing screens.
Cool! Nature can be the best.
I meant about Doc’s prognosis.
https://postimg.cc/mzJHbkz9
Low Boundary tagged overnight.
My experience on Monday was similar to Doc’s in that I was actively trimming back my Silver stocks on that surge higher, as I had mentioned earlier that morning on the weekend show blog, and then reviewed on the Monday blog. I knew that with all the #ShortSilver narrative in full swing, which had actually started a week ago on Wednesday night, then followed by other big green days up on Thursday and Friday…. that things had already had an outsized move.
Many miners had already put in 20-50% moves higher in just 3 1/2 trading sessions, gapping higher each morning, so I figured there would be a quick reversal. I also moved some funds on Monday afternoon over to Gold and Uranium stocks that looked like a better value.When Tuesday reversed all the gains back down, I was
oops, I hit submit on my phone mid thought…
(When Tuesday reversed all the gains back down, I was active in buying back some of the silver stocks I had trimmed (like Golden Minerals, Hecla, Endeavour Silver, and Silvercrest), but I did not add back to some of the positions I had trimmed on Monday (in Coeur, Silvercorp, Alexco, Santacruz, Impact, or Silver Tiger). I’m still waiting for a better entry on those.
As for how long we have before Silver reverses back up along with the miners, I don’t feel it is that far away. Silver is currently $26.47, so if it dropped back to $25 to where it was before all this started last week, then I’d likely deploy more capital, and if it got stuck in a sideways to down consolidation, like Doc mentioned down in the $24-$22 level, then I’d likely fire off my remaining dry powder.
The only main difference I noticed is that I’m more fully deployed at this point, after having added to some on Tuesday, and a I’ve only got about 9% funds left, and am 91% invested with the funds I want to allocate to Silver & Gold, versus his 61%. Part of that is also because I went shopping for Gold & Uranium stocks on Monday afternoon though. If we go down to $25 Silver, then I’ll deploy 4%, leaving me 5% left for if Silver pulls lower to $24-$22. At that point, I’d likely be 100% fully deployed.
As for Wednesday’s trades, they were pretty mild. I added to my position in Precipitate Gold, and bought a London-based crypto miner (Algo Blockchain ). As for trimming, I shaved off just a few shares in Gold Resource Corp, Goliath Res, and Sierra Metals. Overall it was a boring day, which is why I decided to close up shop early and get outside for some R&R.
Thanks!
Earliest Full Saturation (Down) is Friday/Monday.
I’ll be looking for deals on Friday and Monday then. Cheers!
Cool! As mentioned before:
“More downside is not precluded.
Continued Saturation is possible,
with additional shorting/selling.”
Scum pelosi uses advance knowledge to net (not yet closed position) a million bucks on the stock market:
Wicked Witch of the West.
Algo hit… kind of early…
It would seem that way David. Glenfidish did say he expected gold to go back into low 1800s. This is that region. Lets see if it holds. It would now seem apparent that the squeeze seen in silver was a speculation or even a pump and dump by the big funds. In the short term they have succeeded as silver is now lower than when it opened on Monday.
Yes, while there was a nice run from $25 to $27 the end of last week and then the pop to $29-$30 on Monday, Silver has now pulled back down to $26.61, giving up most of those gains. The Reddit/WSB/Robinhood retail mobs had their work cut out for them to force Silver up much higher than the resistance around the prior high at $29.92.
Again, it created a nice tradable rally in many of the Silver stocks that were up handsomely in double digits, many rising 20-50% in just a few days. However, most of those gains were also given back on the pullback Tuesday and today on Wednesday. I sold some silver stocks on Monday, bought some silver stocks on Tuesday, and mostly held onto positions on Wednesday (as it was a boring day overall). It sounds like most are expecting more selling and pressure in the PM sector heading into the end of the week, so I’ll be looking to go poaching for any more deals on Thursday & Friday.
You and Matthew both raised some very valid points regarding the actual metal price going down but the miners not giving much up. You trimmed when needed and positioned yourself in a good spot…doc has been good as well with his calls. I’m just sharing what I see in regards to the metal price and I think Monday and Tuesday could possibly bring in the second low for the metal and possibly the final low for some miners..
Cheers
Thanks. Yes, the miners held up better than expected during all of this, and the silver miners have held up better than the gold over the multi-month correction starting last summer.
If the metals and miners keep selling off the balance of this week, and then bottom on Monday & Tuesday of next week, then it will be a good time to deploy some remaining dry powder to top off some positions that were trimmed at higher levels.
I would think managed money co-opted the silver squeeze. The naked shorts win to fight another day…and it is criminal. That doesn’t say much for Regulators…but who was trying to say much for Regulators.
I’m afraid my view of a 1785 low may get cracked. Just saying.
Ozibatla and Charles and david, It seems to me your the only three listening to me! Have you seen the movie Titanic? The scene where the emergency ship log boats leave only with the rich people? Only one wood log boat comes back and the captain screams “ Is there anyone out there” “‘is there anyone alive” well that’s how I feel when I post lol.. I’m nailing calls and not one soul but you three..
My call remains the same and today I nailed it again! Tomorrow we should have same range..Monday and Tuesday should send us hard down on the miners..tomorrow we should finally either gap down or prepare the downward movement!
Thank me later
Glen
Never have watched the Titanic as I know how it ends.
Please don’t give away the ending!
(SILV) (SIL) SilverCrest Metals: Las Chispas Feasibility Study Confirms Outstanding PEA Economics
Feb. 03, 2021 – T.D. – Seeking Alpha
(SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold: Fourth Quarter Production Analysis
Feb. 03, 2021 – Fun Trading – Seeking Alpha
Guys my pattern is showing $1814 needs to gold, maybe slightly below it! If not we are heading done to November low and we better hope it’s a double bottom because of not then my right shoulder breaking $1814 will become the head and as Matthew mentioned we are in deeper waters..
For why it’s worth I think Monday or Tuesday marks the bottom if not this Friday..I sense it’s close
If Gold goes down and tests $1814 and holds, that sounds fine to me.
There is also still the congestion zone at $1780-$1790 that was resistance on the way up a few times, and may offer one more layer of support on any trip back down that tests it, prior to things going down to the November low of $1767. Yes, if that Nov low is taken out, then it would do longer-term chart damage, making a lower low, and that is not something I’d want to see.
Hoping the $1814 holds strong, and then Gold bottoms, bases, and heads higher in the next impulse leg higher. We’ll see how it goes.
Ditto! I won’t say no more but we are her now and it’s time for the verdict.. everything I’ve done till now and gone through every pattern possible is telling me the bulls will come in strong soon and the banks themselves will turn into bull.
Let’s see
Thanks
Heres to hoping Ex!
I really don’t want a single close below the 233 day MA, currently 1822.90…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50615066019&a=825179902
If it happens, we can count on a move to 1785-1790, at least.
Cheers Matthew. Interesting!
Well, gold has already been to 1793 this morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if this mini plunge marks the end of the move down and we get a reversal today.
Agreed Matthew, in regards to the 233 MA. I had mentioned in a few post Gold trading in that range between roughly the 55 day EMA and the 233 day EMA, and that I wanted to see the 233 hold up, so same with the SMA.
The 233 day EMA is currently at $1804.37 has has gained a few bucks since this time last week trending higher. It would be ideal to see this level hold as support for Gold.
Gold is currently only $3 above that level at $1807.
Well, Gold just smashed down through it, down to $1797. Now the prior resistance at $1780-$1790 will need to hold as support, or the November low at $1767 will come into play as the last line in the sand.
$1784 .65 was the low in Gold today, so that $1780-$1790 congestion zone, that was prior resistance, did hold as current support, at least for today.
Hope your right Glen! A break of Novembers low leaves gold badly exposed to a significant downward bias. Regarding your previous post describing that Titanic scene, I just hope im not Jack Dawson sinking to the bottom of the Atlantic? Actually ditto for silver…haha.
Haha good one Ozi,
No no it was just in reference to more posters that’s all.. guys as many of us have been saying here, buying even now at these lows will reward you in 3-5 months big time I have no doubt. It’s trying to nail that bottom which is sweet if you can.
I dont like the look of this guys!
https://postimg.cc/Z9c4BW5X
Dollar may be on a Gap Hunt.
Uptrend Resistance broken.
Uranium Earliest Saturation*
Up: Friday/Monday
Down: Tuesday/Wednesday
*Full per URA and URNM
$1810 on gold price.con level reached and quickly bounced off it. I should have mentioned $1810 as a significant number low in the pattern however I like the fact that it bounce back to that $1814 we discussed. The bulls will put up a fight here. If the bankers and market makers are done, this is the spot we turn. I guess what I’m trying to say folks is the bottom before the turn could very well possibly be today and not Monday or Tuesday. It looks equally as possible for today to put in a bottom if we hold here at the $1810-$1814 and slowly make are way up and close just above if not the 233 ma as Matt mentioned positioned at $1822.90- I could see a close around $1823 just on the line. If that’s so tomorrow will be explosive candle up.
Let’s see what happens really hard to say. As Gary would say this cycle is long in the tooth 😀
Glen
Under$1800
Yep. Gold at $1794 and dropping…
I agree with Glen and Matt in that today is very likely the day of the turn.
gold bugs forever hopefull, Writing has been on the wall for months, we’ve topped and stairstepping our way down.
1850 plus / minus now upside resistence. The floor??? Who knows
unit labor costs up positive 6.8% vs. negative down 7% last month…Is that note evidence of inflation?….any responses and ideas more than welcomed…
Yes, that’s inflationary and this will be too:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-treasury/yellen-says-u-s-must-act-big-on-next-coronavirus-relief-package-idUSKBN29N1YJ
Of course gold had to get smacked. “Nothing to see here, move along…”
Sorry Glen.. under $1800 .. I will be be listening intently on your guys perspective.
As Matt and ex spoke about there is lower resistance levels and November all important low of which no one wants broken.. That would Invalidate the gold low in place..
Regardless of this action I’m going shopping as I mentioned day before yesterday was expecting the gap down on miners and I think we are going to have just that. Low can come anytime and slaughter has started. Short lived imo.. ⌛️
Glen, I think you’re smart to go shopping. Today could easily be the low.
Yeah, whatever happens, there will be good deals in the gold & silver stocks today, and I plan on doing some bottom fishing during the carnage. 2 minutes until the main trading session opens up it’s doors…
Notice that the miners aren’t down nearly as much as we should expect based on the drop in the metals.
Agreed, considering the move down in the metals.
Matthew,
Do you see GOAU as a good buy? I am looking to diversify from SILJ and SIL. I like the lower volatility of the goau etf.
Thank you.
Pyrite, yes, I consider GOAU a good buy here. The downside risk is probably about 50 cents which would be a retest of the 1/27 low at 18.08…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOAU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96307009420
GDX filled the rest of its 11/25 gap:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p89642044564
Ann nothing changes we remain focused on price action as you know very well. Let’s hang in tight opportunity’s that turn negative should be used as opportunities to purchase long mentioned my a mentor named Matt.. shopping we go and I’m sure doc ex and everyone else will do so as well. At this point let’s remain hopeful that the takedown is short quick and no longer then Tuesday give or take.
Thanks Ann
+10 Matt
Lets hope indeed. This is ugly enough. Near term damage awaits otherwise.
Much appreciated..I think Matt mentioned somewhere around $1765
What an artificial smash of gold at open. Must be Gold’s fault that a hedge fund was 140% naked shorted Gamestop. Also announced is a Class Action Suit against Robinhood. Yellen supposedly called a meeting with Regulators. I wonder who the Bad Guys are other than those that naked shorted the Gold Contracts overnight. Everybody is falling off the side of the Level Playing Field.
so much for the shoulders
A lot of folks have no use for Stewart Thomson, but I find that with a bit of patience, many of his calls are right on the money.
#18 … “From here, I would suggest buying gold and related items at about $1770, with an optional stoploss at $1750.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_011921.html
I would encourage everyone to be very careful here—-of course there could be a short term bounce but the trend is down over the next several weeks—it will sap the energy of a lot of people that get too aggressive buying here—just my opinion but I have seen on the charts that this was coming and it is far from over. Remember—when technical damage has been done that is significant (and it looks like that will happen) it takes time to equilibrate with lower prices in stocks yet. The sell off of a lot of gold stocks should not be too severe since they’ve been getting some beating up already for some time. There’s a reason why I personally am in cash to the tune of 61%.
Excellent advice Doc.
I agree doc that buying at small intervals or tranches would be the way.. Technical damage has been done but I would consider that November low if broken then absolutely the worse damage is done and a long talked about number will loom..
That long miner discussed was the original $1681-$1685 as Larry just talked about on what he sees. This has always been in the mind but let’s take one step at a time.
If we break that November low then the monthly candle on gold will paint red and the March candle should produce the swing green.
Smart move to stay cash, positioned, or add on days like today hard red down. Don’t sell into panic.
Glen
What happens today is important but I am glad I was aggressive. Bot SILJ at 14.57, IPT at .92, KTN at .345 and BBB at .245. One has to be mentally able to sell or hedge when appropriate. That might be tomorrow but it’s not today, so far.
For any looking to diversify into the pots. Right now I think the red white and bloom warrants bought anywhere under .42 is a great leverage play. When they finally announce the pharmco deal being finalized it should get a nice rerating higher
Funny you should mention Red, White and Bloom. I was looking at that one the other day.
my weekly gold chart shows me regular normal retrace levels at Tom Demark9 breakout 1706 area and .618 fibs 1700
The FED no longer posts FOMC minutes!
Remember when they stopped reporting M3 back in 2006? These developments should only make us more certain of their insane wealth-transferring agenda.
Krell Money: Just add another Zero!
You get what you pay for! 😉
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2005-12-18-0512180415-story.html
How is AL ?
Hey franky, Al is getting ready to sell his Tesla shares, so he can buy a huge house with a fleet of shining cars and loll at ease on the sands of Palm Beach. LOL! DT
Sorry franky, I thought you meant Al Capone. DT
The XAU is right between support and resistance:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p36124961642&a=715271477