I missed the opportunity on Great Bear myself. Will now wait for an opportuinty to take a position.

I had missed it too Doc, but on the recent sell down since mid January in GBR, it seemed like a good idea to jump in yesterday, and this great drilling news today just confirms that was likely a wise decision. Once I get a position going, it is much easier for me to add to it on any weakness once I already have a position started, than to initiate a new position. Over time, Great Bear is still a winner, but I do hope for opportunities to even buy more at lower prices and lower my overall cost basis.

I used the selldown in March and April of last year to get into a number of stocks I’d missed or sold early initially like Silvercrest, Metalla, Sierra Metals, Vizsla, K92, Discovery Metals, etc… but spent most of the funds last spring on fortifying a few dozen positions that were already in place in my portfolio for the gold, silver, copper, uranium sectors.

However, I ended up chasing a few explorers that didn’t work out, and I remember thinking, why didn’t I buy Sandstorm or Great Bear when they went on sale? I vowed to watch for them to correct and not miss the next opportunity to accumulate quality into weakness.

In late December I started a position in (SAND) Sandstorm and have added to it 4 more times in late Dec this month of January. Yesterday I started my Great Bear journey, and today I started my Aurion Resources journey.

Tomorrow I may buy back a few tax loss sales from Dec that I only kept small tracking positions in, like Triumph, Brixton, New Range, Nighthawk, and Azimut, but those are all in the most speculative exploration side, and so I’m also looking for a few good quality producers that have sold off hard and deserve a rerating (and I’ve already got my fill of McEwen, Superior, Galane, and Galiano that all deserve much higher valuations). Actually Galane has been a big stronger lately, but it is still really underfollowed and misunderstood. Are there any other solid producers that have had their tail ends kicked that look ripe for a rerating that people are liking at current price levels?

Just in case it got lost in the shuffle I’ll just repost that here while talking about the good doctor.

____________________________

Doc Jones talks with (VG) Volcanic Gold’s (high-grade gold/silver targets) CEO Simon Ridgway “Drill it or kill it” with $13.6 Million in Working Capital he has aggressive exploration plans

by @Drjimjones on 21 Jan 2021

https://ceo.ca/@Drjimjones/doc-jones-talks-with-volcanic-golds-high-grade-goldsilver-targets-ceo-simon-ridgway-drill-it-or-kill-it-with-136-million-in-working-he-has-aggressive-exploration-plans

I don’t own (VG) Volcanic Gold, but I believe he mentioned (SVM) Silvercorp has a 19.95% stake in them, if I read that correctly, and I have a big Silvercorp position, so have exposure in that sense.

Silvercorp also won a bid today on a project in China, and they have a big 28% stake in the silver explorer New Pacific Metals (NUAG) down in Bolivia. SVM has their fingers in a lot of different pies at this point, and has a nice growth profile. I wanted to see them do some acquiring with all that cash, and the auction they won, that was announced today was much more for much less than I was expecting, so that is encouraging.

Ex, yes Dr.J…is a killer…analyst. I’m coming to regard him as your ceo.ca counterpart. Like yourself he is essential and generous with his insights.

As analysts I find the ceo.ca crew sways more to the fundamental side of the research spectrum making it a fine complement the kereport’s technicians.

You cover both of course but i think you know what i mean.

Cheers.

Agreed on all points blazesb. It is nice to get a healthy mix of both fundamental and technical data, and do know what you mean. Ceo.ca is more geared overall to the fundamental analysis, and the technical analysis has been largely shunned over there and is often called voodoo and squiggly lines; where here on the blog fundamentals have occasionally dismissed in favor of just charts, ironically often on editorials about fundamental analysis.

It’s all good and Dr Jones is a sharp guy, and I’ve followed his comments on a number of different companies over the last few years, and will mull over his critiques or endorsements as they are very well-reasoned.

Cheers!

oops – I left out a key word. Overall I was NOT wowed with the 40% premium…

Really, I wouldn’t have been that happy with a 60% premium either, as QMX just picked off early before it bloomed, but it would have been a better offer.

The post actually posted and had subject to review. Them it disappeared. Normally they never post. Anyway…I saw the news about QMX before opening and checked yesterdays closing price and noted that the opening was up 32 or 33%. I computed the Eldorado shares I would get and knew I would sell them upon receipt because of the small #. I sold all QMX and (added to) rolled them into Moneta Porcupine that has been in an uptend since their proposed merger. Those are up a little. If deal falls through later, will see where we are, but for right now, the opening over +30% gives me a chance to compound unless we get another correction since it has been a few days since the last one. I have gotten to the point where I just take what I can get.

Hey David – thanks for those comments and your strategy. I was torn about what to do, but didn’t really want the El Dorado shares, and considered holding for a better counter-offer, but just wanted to rotate into different names.

I started a new position in Aurion Resources, after further reviewing some of the points that @LucHaveTen has made about the company. I posted some of his research and a recent interview of his down below. AU seemed like a good new home for the QMX funds.

I agree with getting robbed with QMX but I feel like I have been robbed on just about every mining stock for the last 12 years. JPM doesn’t have 5 felonies and the same CEO in place for nothing.

“Not” wowed…funny, I read it as “not wowed” and didn’t notice you left “not” out until you said something. Anyway…when someone makes an offer, I usually take it as by the time they drag it out for a vote and make the pay out, I could of trued to put the money to use. Now if it is a 1 for 1 share offering or adds shares to something I own, then maybe I will wait. Shares may appreciate during or after the deal closes.

Running way behind as doctors appt today. But…@luctenhave… Eric Sprott mentioned him one day in passing in an interview. Said it was someone he read that had a following on ceo.ca. I check his site every once in awhile snd should check more. Thanks for those posts.

Yeah, good comments David. I generally do the same thing if I hold a stock being taken over, and sell into the initial move up, rather than wait for 3-6 months to get everything finalized, to put that money to work elsewhere. There are times where Coeur, Hecla, Alamos, First Majestic, Kirkland Lake, Endeavour mining, etc… have taken over companies where I waited to get the big boy shares, but typically got impatient after holding so long for the transaction that I ended up selling them anyway, once in the larger more liquid vehicle. I considered holding on to get Eldorado shares, and then thought… nah… better take the money and redeploy elsewhere. Again, the risk is that QMX receives a better offer, but there is also risk in just sitting stagnant in a position that is tethered to a slower moving senior.

Yes, LucTenHave is a very sharp individual investor, that is quite a brilliant value investor and stock picker, and has had a number of wins under his belt that has impressed the ceo.ca community, including me. I’ve suggested to him that it would be great to get on the show here, and he thinks maybe in a few months he may be game.

Thanks for the feedback Thomas, and for sure I’m still a big fan of the Lithium miners as stated above. Having said that, the lithium miners are looking really overbought lately, and so I decided to bank some profits on Thursday, to raise more funds in these very uncertain times.

I’ve also trimmed back some of the Uranium stocks in my portfolio lately, because they’ve run really hard as well, but the spot prices will need to move higher to really underpin further advances like what we’ve been seeing. It is looking like many U stocks may take a short breather soon, and when they do then I’ll reload for the long game.

This is why I keep core positions in place in the Uranium stocks, because if spot prices jump suddenly, or a new contracting cycle kicks off through an official news release, then the Uranium stocks can really jolt upwards quickly.

Not all developers have high capex. There are lower cost Uranium producers that utilize the ISR (In-situ) mining method, and put fairly inexpensive liquid wells, pump a solution through the porous ground to dissolve the Uranium, and then collect the solution to extract the Uranium. This method of setting up an ISR well field is a fraction of the cost of a traditional hard rock mine, (like what Ur-Energy, Uranerz that Energy Fuels took over, or Penisula Energy have done, and what UEC, Denison, and Azarga Uranium are in the process of doing).

On the larger hard-rock development projects (like Nexgen, Fission, IsoEnergy, etc…) then it will likely take a larger partner company like Cameco, Rio, BHP, or even an Oil company to come in and fund the development of the mine. In a way that just underpins precisely why Uranium prices need to rise to incentivize new supply. It is like Rick Rule has said for years… “Either the price of Uranium goes up to incentivize new mines to come on line and provide supply, or the lights go out.”

Both Lithium and Uranium are going to see continued building demand, and the Jr companies that continue to locate, explore, develop, and move towards production (often with bigger partners) will continue to have a seat at the table, and will continue to offer fantastic gains to contrarian resource investors that get involved with the quality teams and deposits.

Ever Upward!

Hi Ex again, thanks for all the information I can hardly keep up with your posts, on another note I hope Eric Sprott is okay and makes it back for the weekly wrap up tomorrow. DT

Haha! Thank DT, Yes, she was working on that honey do list just this evening.

Yes, I hope Eric Sprott is OK as well, and I’m sure he’ll be back with Craig soon doing the weekly wraps, and many are looking forward to that as well.

Cheers!

What happened?

Maybe we should asked Cory, if we can get an Ignore function in this forum?

Maybe we should spare Cory the needless hassle. You must be a Biden voter if your brain doesn’t have it’s own ignore function.

Yes, to each their own… I like the mid-tier companies from the standpoint of what a dramatic effect (on a percentage basis to their revenues or in bringing down costs) that just 1 new mine can have from either development or through and acquisition. So if a miner with 100,000 ounces at $1200 AISC, can acquire an asset that also produces an addition 100,000 ounces at $800 AISC, then they’ve doubled their output and reduced costs down to $1000 AISC across the enterprise.

Personally, I usually look at Gold companies producing less than 100,000 ounces per year as small, from 100,000 – 1 million as the mid-tiers, and from 1 million+ as Majors. Some use market caps to decide if they are small or mid-tiers, but those values can be all over the map in bullish or bearish cycles, so I prefer to look at ounces produced. Some may move their cutoff up to 200K or 300K ounces to be a Mid-tier, but that is a lot smaller universe of companies, and I think there is big difference between a multi-mine producer doing 100,000 or 150,000 ounces per year, and a small single asset producer doing 20K or 60K ounce per year, in operational risk, cost efficiencies, and mine life concerns.

I agree with you though, that Equinox buying Premier is going to move them into the Major status, producing over 1 million ounces per year, and they are nearly doubling their production as well. Ross Beaty is the man…

Thomas – I know you were a fan of Leagold, before Equinox acquired, them and like Equinox even better now that they are taking things to the next level with the Premier acquisition.

What other gold or silver companies do you own or like enough to own, and feel represent good value at today’s prices?

Added some more Equinox

And bought Leagold 2.0 right on the day of the announcement. I couldn‘t resist. It looks to good, not to join a team of Mining legends 😌

Well played Thomas, and good strategy to bet on the serially successful mining legends.

Are there any other companies you are liking, outside of Equinox and Leagold?

> You have a good eye for deep value is why I ask.

Bought some Endeavour Mining today. Today is the registration day for the first dividend.
So actually, you get it $0,48 cheaper than next week -:)
Dividend is 1,8% at today’s share price

Endeavour sells AGBAOU for $80 million + 2,5% NSR

https://www.endeavourmining.com/news-releases/press-release-details/2021/Endeavour-Announces-the-Sale-of-its-Non-Core-Agbaou-Mine/default.aspx

That is a nice dividend Thomas, but I generally go with Mid-tiers and below and Endeavour is a bit too large and I considered it a Major before they bought Teranga, but now they are a true force to be reckoned with.

I’m more interested in positioning the companies I think they’ll buy further down the road. For example, I had True Gold back in the day that Endeavour bought, and Gryphon that Teranga bought, and I’m currently in Roxgold, Orezone, Galiano , NewCore, and Sarama in West Africa, with the thought that one of those will be next. If it isn’t Endeavour that buys them, then it could be B2Gold, Resolute, or another larger producer wanting to break into the area.

BTW – Thanks Thomas for the heads up on the EDR dividend though, and I wish you well in the trade.

Yeah, my approach is different than yours I guess -:)

Actually I had the same approach than you, before I came to Endeavour via True Gold -:)
Lost some money on great projects, because poor management. With Endeavour I learned, what difference good management makes.

„Poor management can destroy a company with a great asset“

„Good management can create a great company, even with a poor asset“

Leagold is a perfect example.

Los Filos is probably in one of the most difficult areas and Goldcorp had problems with it. They decided to get rid of it. After Leagold took over they turned it to a world class asset that will produce 400.000 oz (I am sure Goldcorp would have kept a 400.000 oz mine). Interestingly, after Equinox took over, the problems returned.

My advice is, not only look for good assets – first look for great management

I think Roxgold alone would be to small for Endeavour. If they could combine it with Mana to create a 300.000 oz operation, it would be interesting

I think they will make another try on Centamin. Endeavour will become the West African Barrick over time. Sukari would make a lot of sense in this scenario.

Roxgold is working on developing their 2nd mine over the next 2 years, so when they get that up and running, they’ll definitely be on the takeover menu.

Galiano Gold (GAU) is another West African producer that Endeavour or another major make a run out down the road. I own both Galiano & Roxgold.

Perseus Mining is another solid West African Producer that could be up for grabs soon.

I’d submit that Endeavour Mining already is the African Barrick. They were a Major producer doing over 1 million ounces a year, BEFORE they acquire Semafo or Teranga. Now Endeavour is a behoth.