Bitcoin Trading Update – As much talk as there is about Bitcoin as a safe haven it’s still in a downtrend
Ryan Wilday kicks off today with an update on the Bitcoin market. We discuss his technical outlook as well as some insights on the potential safe haven appeal for cryptocurrencies.
If you have further questions on Bitcoin for Ryan please email me at Fleck@kereport.com.
………………………… Long PGM, (Poor Gold) as of today! DT
SHAKE OUT!
I have bought back the IPT that I sold yesterday as well as JAG and others.
That needs clarification. I bought back all the IPT that I sold yesterday but only part of the JAG that I sold.
Matthew. Are you just expecting this current pullback that started yesterday to be shorter lived (2-3 days versus 2-3 weeks)?
I had trimmed back some positions on Tuesday (including in IPT and JAG as well), but they are at better cost points today. I’m guessing you see today’s move as only temporary, hence you buying back in.
I just know Jordan RB was suggesting we may have a breather for a few weeks, and wanted to get your perspective.
Yes, I think this pullback will be very short, possibly ending tomorrow before noon. If I am wrong, a few weeks still seems too long.
Both IPT and JAG are currently well above my average buy price today but I will buy more if they take out their lows for the day.
Thanks Matthew. Yeah, both JAG and IPT are above my average buy price as well, but they have moved a few ticks below where I trimmed, and I’m just considering whether I should average back up now, or hold off for a week or so.
I’m having this same debate with a number of stocks right now – AXU, NEE, USAS, EXN, etc… where they are all profitable positions, that were trimmed, but now I may buy some back.
For what it’s worth, I’m not averaging up at all today since I think we could easily see modest new lows tomorrow morning.
That’s worth a lot for me. I may take my finger off the trigger, and hold off for the morning.
However, there are a few smaller juniors I’m eyeing that are not moving at all that I may fire off a few stink bids at. 🙂
Caveat: I probably would succumb to the urge to average up a little if I thought my positions were way too small from a long term perspective.
Understood. No most of those positions were growing a bit too large, because I had gone after them aggressively in mid March, and they rose quite a bit.
If the bull raged forward now with the weighting and positions I have currently I would be just fine, but I’ve considered switching strategies to even more concentrated bets for the next leg of this bull market and reducing down the overall number of stocks I hold in the portfolio, as it has gotten a bit much to manage. Stocks like JAG and IPT and AXU and USAS are ones I feel good having overweight positions in.
Solid!
Absolutely Ex,
I also believe short.. In fact i would not be surprised if we go up tomorrow or monday and resume.
Solid was intended for Matthew.. The other post was for ex..
And that’s key, keeping our short term expectations in tune with our longer term objectives is wise.
If I were underexposed to the miners I would happily buy today knowing that it might go down tomorrow since that would be far easier for me to endure than to wait and then watch it go higher without me. My attitude is different when actively trading a liquid ETF but when speculating in these juniors (especially in significant size), I want a good price almost as much as I want a good technical setup.
Thanks Glenfidish. Waiting to see if this is just a small pause, or longer corrective move.
I’m working on getting positioned in companies with enough liquidity to get in and out of quickly to stay more nimble.
Again, I may be waiting to join you in the late summer tailgate party to back up the truck again there. 🙂
I agree Glen, lower in the morning then higher.
Don’t chase gold as seasonal pattern points to lower prices – Mickey Fulp
Mickey Fulp, The Mercenary Geologist – May 20, 2020 – Kitco News #VIDEO
“Gold prices have pushed to within striking distance of $1,800 an ounce, but the rally comes during the market’s seasonally slow period and according to one market analyst, it could be an uphill battle for further gains.”
“In an interview with Kitco News, Mickey Fulp, creator of the Mercenary Geologist Newsletter, said that traditionally, gold prices have a strong start to the year, prices are flat through spring and usually hit a low in late summer, early fall.”
“We expect during the period from June to the end of October for gold to be flat or lose value, till about mid-August,” he said. “Usually, the seasonal low for gold during the year is sometime between the 1st of July to mid-August.”
Re: Don’t chase gold as seasonal pattern points to lower prices – Mickey Fulp
I’m sure Fulp is a fine geo but I can’t think of sillier advice right now even though I also would avoid gold here in favor of silver and the miners. It his regard for “seasonal patterns” that I have a problem with. That’s not analysis and anyone who acted on the old “sell in May” plan last year must have felt pretty stupid by the first week of June.
PHILOSOPHICAL DREAMS (can’t get out of his own way)🍼
Just like 98% of the populous.
Well here’s a different view
Hi, here is something I thought you might find interesting: – http://ca.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-bitcoin-consolidates-longterm-uptrend-200436789
Crypto Faithful Flip Out on Speculation Satoshi Sold Bitcoin
Vildana Hajric and Olga Kharif 23 hrs ago – Bloomberg
“Crypto Twitter was ablaze Wednesday after the sale of some Bitcoin was reportedly linked to the account of the token’s mystery founder.”
“The price of the largest digital token plummeted on speculation its anonymous creator, who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, was moving coins mined in early 2009, an act perceived by some as a near-sacrilegious offense.”
“Twitter account @whale_alert, which posts real-time transaction data, was among the first to report of the sale, tweeting that the coins in the transaction were mined in the first month of Bitcoin’s existence.”
“Bitcoin fell as much as 4% during Wednesday’s session to trade near $9,530 as of 2:47 p.m. in New York. Peer coins, including Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, also sold off.”
Whale Moves Bitcoins Mined In 2009, Triggering Speculation That Satoshi Is Gearing Up To Sell
Ben Jessel – Forbes – 05/21/2020
“The bitcoin community was alive with speculation yesterday that bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakomoto has been moving bitcoin funds as 40 of some of the earliest ever mined bitcoins were moved for the first time in eleven years.”
“The news sent jitters through the bitcoin trading community, initially wiping $600 of the price of bitcoin on fears that previously dormant bitcoin whales were now gearing up to sell large amounts of their fortune, triggered, potentially, by the recent bitcoin halving or the appreciation of bitcoin price which has been flirting with the $10,000 mark for the last few months.”
Bitcoin down another 7% today on this news.
Hey Glenfidish. Checked out that compass gold. Seems like a good play to put profits in to. Time to accumulate I think. Not too much going on at the moments.
Yeah, I’ve been hearing more chatter on Compass Gold, and need to spend some time giving a it a look-see. Also, Nighthawk Gold is getting more attention again.
Has anyone ever given (ORX) Orefinders a look. I’ve been sitting on it for a while, and the position is in the money, but Sprott just got in, and they look to have an interesting drill campaign set up on several properties in the Kirkland Lake and Shinning Tree districts.
I’m trying to debate selling for a win, or holding for a potential much larger win, but wandered if anyone else had some perspective.
It would be foolish to sell now if Orefinders gets acquired as a consolidation of either of their primary land packages, but I’d conversely like to deploy funds into other other projects that look like they may move more. What to do… what to do…
http://www.orefinders.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ORX-Fact-Sheet_2019.pdf
Nighthawk is another one that has been paying for ads on bnn. Nighthawk I’ve seen the most. Saw Roxgold once too.
Yeah, I’m fully stocked on Roxgold and have been building a position in it for a while, but I sold out of Nighthawk a while ago, and have considered getting back in for fun with drilling.
Solid Wolf! I think it’s a winner and since ex and matt awlays share i felt the need to as well. Great group of guys in here for many years.
+1 I really appreciate the contributors here at the KER. A solid lot of scallywags.
Maybe I was wrong about having time to accumulate compass. ☹️
Wow. CVB up nearly 21% on the day. Looks like I missed that one as well.
Maybe it will lose it’s directional compass and do a return trip to give us plebs one more buying opportunity.
I think this was a shake up and called it at that 1717-1720 area. Matt mentioned this last week it would last few days. Im looking for the bigger correction to come from the 1800 plus region. Hope this clarifies my stance. And matt is correct and go as high as 1900+.
(SGN) Scorpio Gold Appoints Bruce Dawson to Board of Directors
May 21, 2020
(NEE) (NHVCF) Northern Vertex Commences Exploration Drill Program at Moss Gold Mine, Arizona
by @newswire on 21 May 2020
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/northern-vertex-commences-exploration-drill-program
New (LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Metals – Corporate Presentation from 121 Mining conference. I’m expecting BIG things from this project.
Watching you guys today. USAA moving their trading accounts to Schwab. Don’y know whether that is bad or good. No trading until Tuesday.
It’s been a lackluster day so you aren’t missing much David. I’ve heard good things about Schwab but have never used the plaform. I’m with TD Ameritrade and Interactive Brokers. If you don’t like it you can always pick one of another dozen platforms. Many go on about Robinhood as a newer platform, but I’ve never used it either.
Thanks for that info. USAA told customers they thought Schwab offered the most compatible swap. We will see. Going to look up Robinhood before I forget, which takes about 3 minutes.
I would have been pretty p.o.-ed if I couldn’t trade today. The shares I picked up this morning in Brixton and Kootenay are already up significantly and the way in which they traded casts doubt on my getting another shot at the lows before they move higher. Jaguar also ended above my average price and was equally well bid.
Brixton traded between $.19 – $.205 today ending flat on the day, and Jaguar traded between $.375 – $.42 ending down 4.82% at $.395. I guess Kootenay had a nice run if one bought in near the lows at $.27 20 minutes before the close and rode it up to $.31 at the close, but for most of the day it didn’t move much, and only closed up 1.64% on the day. GDX and GDXJ were down over 2% on the day and SILJ was down over 3% on the day and another 2% in afterhours trading.
Overall, it just didn’t seem that stellar of day in most of the miners, compared to some of the double-digit days we have been seen in so many stocks where the spreads were much larger there were strong closes into the highs, instead of flat or down. That’s what I meant by lackluster. Some were up mildly, many were essentially flat on the day, and some sold off but not in a big enough way to catch a nice fishingline selloff.
Really every day presents opportunities in most stocks if one is nimble enough and stays glued to the lessor hourly charts, but I walked away for extended period throughout the day and came back and hardly anything had changed much.
Still I’m happy you had some good trades today where you got in lower and then ended up above your average buying price, and always celebrate anyone’s success trading these tough markets.
Personally I barely traded the markets today but was very active on Monday and Tuesday. I’m fine either way with how tomorrow goes, because if today was the lows, then I’ll be happy to see the portfolio surge into the weekly close, but if there is more weakness tomorrow then I may nibble at a few.
Wishing everyone the best in their investing here at the KER.
I bought back BBB and JAG shares for 10% less than I sold them for and KTN for roughly 15% less than I sold them for. Yes, they might still go lower but there was plenty of demand today even before big volume came in and drove them up.
I’m glad to have had such weakness so quickly in the shares I had just sold and am ready to buy more should they drop from here. If the sector goes up from here, there’s good reason to be upset for those unable to trade today. It was a stellar day for buying as I also picked up IPT for 15% less than I sold it for yesterday. Btw, my broker has BBB at .21 for the close which might say something about where the market makers think the risk is (to the upside).
There are opportunities everyday but they vary greatly from stock to stock. I like odds in my favor and yesterday gave me the best odds as a seller of the mentioned shares.
Silver priced in gold is on a great looking weekly MACD and there is no indication that it will be negatively disrupted by tomorrow’s close. That buy is more important than the buy versus dollars.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66610524336&a=725883771
Correction: “Silver priced in gold is on a great looking weekly MACD BUY…”
Let’s see if the bears can stop this weekly MACD buy tomorrow. If they can’t, we could have some really good times on our hands sooner rather than later…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&id=p73541215390&a=757970817
This looks like a fantastic time to sell senior golds and buy junior silvers.
It also looks like a good time to sell senior silvers to buy junior silvers…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASIL&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06338828979
Good charts Matthew, and I’m looking forward for Silver Jrs to keep outperforming the Gold Seniors, and looking forward to the fun times ahead.
Excelsior, fun times ahead eh ??? That’s completely your business however that’s why we’re in such heated debates over this issue because it’s inconceivable how you can say such a thing with this nation literally falling apart into a civil war that’s unavoidable with our national debt that’s going completely ballistic on a daily basis. However, you have a right to believe whatever you want I respect that. We should treat each other like wise in the future. My apologies in advance for even saying anything I just don’t see any fun times at all whatsoever completely the opposite. However, we are all entitled to our opinions.
Josey Wales – I was talking about fun times trading the Silver miners, and for those that know how this little sector can move on a breakout, yes – it will be a blast.
Not every discussion on here is about the doom & gloom macro backdrop of the United States, but I agree with you that in general we are entering a very difficult times, and have posted dozens and dozens of posts each week that support that harsh reality.
Having said that, it is all in how one reacts to these changes, and you can absolutely still have fun times with your friends, families, and community if you find the attitude of gratitude, mix in some humor and levity, and make the most out of it. Obviously it is not the ideal situation with mass gatherings canceled and many events on hold, but people can find the light even in the darkest of times.
I refuse to wallow in doom and gloom every single day and plan on doing my best to stay update. As the saying goes, “I’ll work on me for you, if you’ll work on you for me.” We can all strive to be better, to grow, and to find the positive, rather than the default negativity the media is gravitating to on a daily basis. You’ll feel better, and be less of wet blanket on those around you.
update = upbeat
Excelsior, I fully understand you’re entitled to do the things that you enjoy and whatever else is in the mix. If you enjoy trading these stocks definitely not my idea of fun at all. With that being said I will continue my posts and comments regarding the economic conditions if I feel it’s necessary and of course anything else that might be considered everyone should pay attention too. Not everyone is informed nor do many post comments. Everyone should be prepared and have the fortitude to face some very severe consequences of exploding national debt levels and the fallout. It’s going to be a severe economic catastrophe no one is prepared for most likely including you, possibly myself. It could happen suddenly and very abruptly life could change in moments. That’s all and how really ugly it is I don’t think anyone can really imagine because there’s going to be a lot of violence and major major bloodshed there’s no question about it whatsoever. No one’s prepared for this. It could be within several months away.
My last note disappeared…so, I picked up some Kootenay earlier in the week as I knew I wouldn’t be able to later in the week. I tried to get more yesterday but they weren’t responding even to more than the ask. I think I took that and added to Southern Silver as I went back into that again. I haven’t added to Brixton as it is still red for me and has been for awhile. If things kick off again tomorrow, I haven’t lost much. Ely keeps on going so I quit selling it. I was using it as my bank. Decided to let it ride.
I saw the sell off in SSV and was tempted to add some, but got on a long phone call, and when I came back the markets had closed. I considered adding some more Kootenay, but have a nice position at lower prices, but I guess it would have been nice to have added on the dip 20 minutes from the close. I may look at it tomorrow.
As for Brixton, I made a lot of money on it in 2016, and had a few nice swing trades on it in in early 2017 and early 2018, but after adding more back to in late 2018 and 2019, I regret those buys as I’ve been underwater on it for a while since then. However BBB is gradually clawing it’s way higher. Personally, I’m looking for them to have some nice exploration results on any of their projects they keep rotating through that will actually capture the markets attention, and if it goes on a run I’ll hit the escape hatch into a nice liquidity event to sell out of it.
Yeah, I’ve noted Ely and have considered it for some time but don’t own it, but the royalty companies have been doing well since last year. I went a little farther up the food chain with Maverix the last few years, and had some nice trades coming out of the recent March lows where I added much more to the position, but it looks like going for Ely last year would have been better returns. I also did quite well on Golden Valley Mines the last 2 years in particular, but have held it longer than that.
I did try to get into Cardinal Resources today, an Aussie developer operating in West Africa, because I feel like any day now Nordgold is going to announce their due diligence period is over and they are going to take them over.
I was reading this March presser where Cardinal Resources announced they were in a confidentially agreement with Nordgold who was doing a strategic review. Nordgold already owns 20% of Cardinal, so I could see them going all in soon, and I may play it for a quick takeover premium.
https://www.cardinalresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/44ght29h1n29by.pdf
Ticker is CDV.AX
Is Cardinal halted? I checked the OTC and it is showing crickets. Price drop on 20th of just under 15%, down to US .25. ???
I don’t believe Cardinal is halted. CDV.AX is trading at $.41 today, so x .66 currency it should be about $.27 on the US OTC.
Hi Ex,
Sorry I did not address this question earlier. I know absolutely nothing of orefinders.
There are so many companies out there to really stay on top off.. I tend to write down the directors and CEO’s of the companies that have served me well throughout the years and really given shareholders value and movement.
For example mux with all respect I’ve always found to be a big lagger maybe it’s just me. Another company I wouldn’t touch is yamana because it is a weird moving stock. It moves up when gold goes down and vice versa and stock in a narrow range for years. I love action 3-4-8 times your money.
I really think some of the silver plays you mentioned along with impact and even aurcana will serve well.
I keep playing with the formula over the years to have success and stay in the winning side.
With Matt as a heavyweight, yourself and a few other I listen to or watch with technicals I’m on cloud 9. Matt is a big big believer in technical charts as you can see and I’m also now more a believer then years pass. I’m fact I use to put more credence on gold on ground or inferred and cash/debt levels etc. I’ve sat on companies that had it all and didn’t move. When they did the shirts came in and you can see patterns with certain stocks and how they trade manipulation with shirts/bankers? Possibly. Then I grab any stock out there and look at the chart like Matt does and if it looks good and the setup is there bang you doubled and sometimes fairly quick.
I looked at compass the other day and it was a long red candle and sitting there for the taking. First thing I did was mention it in here. I kid you not go back and check it gave everyone time to buy it and ride that massive candle today as wolfster said. I think when you can read a chart with your eyes closed and know how to properly read, it is powerful.
Strange enough you can have 10 guys looking at one and have 10 different opinions. I’m the end I still think compass at these price are a bargain in 2-3 years.
Hey Glenfidish – thanks for the response back.
Regarding Orefinders, I got in a while back when they were selling above-ground stockpiles to turn a profit, and were more in development, but then they went off buying new properties but not doing much drilling or development, and I got trapped in it. However in the last 6 months or so it has started to pick up steam in anticipation of their drill campaign, and the Uncle Eric got in for a capital raise, which led to more buying. I have a profitable position in it now, and was going to sell it, but then wondered if I’d be shooting myself in the foot right in front of their drill campaigns. I was just curious if you or Wolfster were following it, but as you said, there are so many companies (too many really).
As for MUX, yeah it’s a company I’ve had a few good trades on earlier in this bull market, but I’ve lost on 2 out of the last 3 trades on it, and have been repeatedly disappointed. I kept thinking because Rob has his name on it, that simply for that reason and his huge stake that he’d get the ship turned around, but they’ve had problems in Argentina, problems with Black Fox that they picked off Primero, and now problems at Gold Bar in Nevada. I’m just sick of the excuses and sold it out this Tuesday, and thank goodness as it has only sank further the rest of the week.
It’s odd because I have a large number of positions, but it is the losers that bother me so much more than if I have 3-5 winners that same week. I guess it is because I backed a jockey and horse, and if the horse ends up being lame, or the jockey can’t seem to get on and ride, it is just disappointing. I realize they can’t all be winners, but felt Rob and team would do a better job, and I liked all the assets at first glance, but they’ve proven to be difficult to operate.
Yeah, Yamana is a weird Senior Producer, but I’ve not owned it since 2011, but will say it has tripled since this time last year. Still there are so many stocks I’d rather own before it, especially where it is valued currently.
Yeah, with Compass Gold, I’d been seeing the chatter over at ceo.ca, and kept telling myself I’d go check it out, but just didn’t, and appreciate you sharing the technical setup you thought looked promising, and you were right as it sailed today.
I’m a big fan of TA and charts as well, but for me, I need to understand at least the basic fundamentals of a company first to build the watchlist of companies I want to own and look for where the catalysts or red flags may come in. Then if I like a company, I start watching it trade for a while to figure out how it is responding and starting watching the technical set up for a place to buy. I also use TA in most cases for trading around that stock afterwards for when to add more or trim back. There are some medium sized companies that I’m sold on fundamentally and don’t watch nearly as closely on fundamentals, because I know they are solid. At that point, once I’m sold on the project/team/structure etc… I just pretty much use TA as the guiding force after that. However with smaller Jrs that are more thinly traded I look to their newsflow more to see where the catalysts will be (ie… drill campaigns, permitting, closing financing deals, and sometimes when warrants come due or if they are part of an area play how the rest of the projects nearby are doing).
Well, let’s keep sharing good ideas and hopefully we’ll all make a bundle through the balance of this bull cycle.
HI Ex,
Points well taken Everything you mention makes sense. Cheers and lets make money. Forgive my spelling mistakes haha.
Right on buddy! Yes, keep tossing around ideas that can be good opportunities.
No worries on the spelling/grammar mistakes. I quit worrying about spelling mistakes on here years ago, because the real issue is not having a edit feature to fix one’s post after submitting like on most sites. If we had that editing feature we could clean up 90% of the posts on here in no time, but alas, once one hits submit, it is what it is…
Sometimes my voice to text changes key words in a sentence and I’ll post a correction below the post in those cases, and other times I’m typing like a madman, while eating, or in multiple conversations on 2 computers and a smart phone on different platforms or emails all at once, and it can get a bit fragmented.
Regardless, I mostly quit caring and try to proof read posts before submitting, but the chat windows here are clunky on a phone, and I just learned they could be expanded to more than 4 lines on a computer a few months ago. For so long I’d have long rants but could only view 4 lines at once, so after submitting I realized there were cut & paste fragments, misspelled words, or word substitutions from voice to text that were wrong, but that essence was still intact.
For me life is too busy to always proof read each post though, as literally many of my posts are while driving and sitting at a red light, in the parking lot before I run in somewhere for errands, sitting on a couch watching a film or in a stream of consciousness rant. As a result, sometimes I just type or speak a post and hit submit and don’t go back and read it for hours, only to be mortified when I do. Haha!
I’m not trying to win a Pulitzer Prize or anything, and don’t judge others if they have the same hurtles in their posts. 🙂
Ever Upward!
Dittu…..oh, I mean Ditto………. 🙂
To error , is human……, I would do the latin version, but, I most likely would have a spelling error…. 🙂
HaHa Jerry!
Thanks ex for your kind words and always well put essay :). I think I’m going to switch to voice/text recognition.
cheers buddies
Glenfidish…..you have a great day…….and cheers back to ya….
The low for NVO today bullishly happened precisely at Tuesday’s close:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVO.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95431868164&a=703918626
NSRPF/NVO: So far, so good. Ely ok also.
Third time today that everyone sold precious metals all at once. How come I didn’t get the memo?
long FSLR