Oil Crashing and OPEC+ Fighting, This Could Be A Huge Issue For Markets Everywhere
Chris Temple joins me today to share his thoughts on the news that broke late Sunday regarding the Saudi-Russia alliance collapsing. Oil prices are being crushed and the rush to cash is hitting pretty much everything across the board.
This could easily take fears to another level over the Coronavirus and get the central banks acting aggressively sooner rather than later.
Click here to visit Chris’s site and follow along with his markets thoughts and trades.
Replay of the 70’s except in reverse…….?
This time maybe you can blame it on The (REDS) Russians! DT
Cincinnati baseball team might have to change it’s name…….to Russian Nots……
Ha! I lived in Cincy for a few years, and hit a few reds games. Let’s blame it all on Pete Rose. 🙂
Pete and Donald, ….will be going into the Hall Of Blame……… 🙂
From all the reports I read, shale oil is dying. The big names are headed to offshore drilling. Sure oil can/will remain weak for some time here but stocks are behaving like world doesn’t need oil anymore.
One of those big scams…….shale oil……..political scam as well…….
History will show…….we have plenty of oil…..and energy all over the place.
Start with a history lesson starting in 1900……even do a Henry Ford take on ethanol and oil…….This is a SCAM………..
Henry Ford also was a fan of Hemp Oil to power vehicles and we got plenty of that as well.
Ex……Ditto………there is a lot to the story……Big Oil…..put the screws to the farmers and inventors….I wish more people understood….the real story….
Agreed, Big Oil has bullied politicians to push certain policies from the get go. Hemp Oil burned cleaner and was more cost effective, but didn’t fit the tycoons business model.
Here’s a telling and funny pricing graphic on 2 different types of Oil products:
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cdn.ceo.ca/1f6dpcd-38DAA454-7557-4F41-80B0-359F5D3A2FBD.jpeg
Bar Chart showing Oil Production Costs by Country:
(there are a number that can operate in the $8-$30 range, but unfortunately the US can’t).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESqhO-tUEAEKZQa?format=jpg&name=small
Russia Says It Can Weather $25 Oil For Up To 10 Years
Mon, 03/09/2020
“While we hope to get an answer on both Saudi and US shale longevity shortly, and once the market reprices shale junk bonds sharply lower, we expect the US shale patch to soon become a ghost town as money-losing US producers will not be solvent with oil below $30, assuring that millions in supply will soon be pulled from the market, moments ago we got the answer as far as Russia is concerned, when its Finance Ministry said on Monday that the country could weather oil prices of $25 to 30$ per barrel for between six and 10 years.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russia-says-it-can-weather-25-oil-10-years
Won’t see Saudis nor Russia ‘caving in’ in the next 6-9 months – Stratfor energy analyst
BNN Bloomberg speaks to Greg Priddy, director at Global Energy and Middle East, Stratfor about the collapse in oil prices and what it could mean for energy companies and the global economy. #VIDEO
Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI on Twitter for Real Vision:
“If Russia wanted to inflict max pain on the US it would be via an oil price collapse. The credit markets are going to find this very hard to deal with as liquidity has already dried up. Trump probably thanked Putin from the American consumer without realizing the damage caused…”
Morning open was the best opportunity to buy “dirt cheap” oil stocks. They have risen 8-9 percent since then.
🙂 At some point, market will run out of sellers in oil stocks (i think today might be considered as the “royal flush” who knows?
Really appreciate the discussion and both you guys sharing your knowledge of the oil patch (Occidental, Marathon, etc.). Learned a lot! Thanks.
Chris: Who does the Fed seek permission from/ Congress as a whole? I can’t see Gold Screaming when they attempt this. And do you think they will get permission easily?
can, not can’t with gold
Would have to double-check…but I believe it’s Congress that would have to broaden their mandate as to what kinds of market activity/asset purchases they can engage in overtly.
Gold would scream higher if they fail, and things REALLY implode. What would make gold plod higher…but also be a bullish environment for mining stocks and other commodities to various degrees…is if they do have broader such authority, re-launch more aggressive QE, etc. Adding a big infrastructure/reflation program would help more broadly, too.
A few years back everyone was very constructive on a large scale infrastructure project, but we haven’t heard very much about it in a while, and I was thinking that was going to be a major talking point in this election. Really both sides of the aisle seemed to be in favor of it, so it seems like a deal for the first wave of it could have been brokered quite some time ago. Now, where the funds are going to come from…? Well, that’s a different question.
If we do get word of that large infrastructure plan, it will finally be the time for commodities to shine.
Hope gas……….goes down to a .99c ……or .25c…….lol
DITTO on gold………CT……….I agree………phyz…..
The chickens have come home, finally…….should have happened 7 yrs ago…
.Long term thinking………..Think ahead……not like sheep……
CT…….do not disagree with your thinking…..concerning stocks and phyz silver….jmo
Young adults……..should be looking at silver phyz………..in 30 yrs……they will be real happy they did………JMO
30 yrs until a payoff might be the case.
Best advice for the Millies…….stop buy a cup of star bucks everyday, and by a piece of silver instead……..then in 30 yrs., you will own the coffee shop…..lol
by to buy…..
OOTB that is sound advice but I doubt the Millies will stop drinking their pumpkin lattes and in stead save up to buy an ounce of silver each week. However, if they did, you are correct that in 30 years they’d own the coffee shop.
We need to get you a campaign to start teaching this program in high school and college economics classes. 🙂
Ex…….I would be more than glad to volunteer ……..of course I would need to be supplied with a cup of free coffee twice a day………. 🙂
Welcome students, and keep stacking.
For a thirty year investment, I would follow Rick Rule’s lead and invest in the World’s most precious commodity. WATER. Clean drinkable water.
People are becoming more socially conscious as to the importance of clean drinking water.
There are still people in Alaska that do not have running water or indoor plumbing, yet the Government can spend Billions on Defense, or should I say Offense.
The PolyMet mine in Minnesota and the Pebble mine in Western Alaska are two good examples of the ongoing demand for Copper to fuel the “Green Economy” and the trade off people are willing to accept when clean fresh water and the creatures that inhabit them are at stake.
Agree Mr. K. I recall a few noted investors doing the water bet in public. T. Boone Pickens ten or more years ago. Dr. Michael ‘The Big Short’ Burry. Pickens is dead, Burry abandoned his water bets in favour of low debt high cash pile Japanese equities.
Explanations for abandoning the trade was essentially that both were early.
Water = Blue Gold.
There was a good documentary out with that name a decade back highlighting the water wars and control of water supply by larger corporations (often at the disservice of the local communities where it was being stolen from).
Jerry, I hope I am still here when the tide turns someday, I want to be around when it happens. DT
DITTO>>>>>DT>>>>>>>>
Fed…….is going to buy everything…..why, because that is their plan……
remembering who the banksters/money changers are, they have been winning for 100’s of years………
The coronavirus pandemic is just beginning.
Agreed. Very proactive measures are the order of the day. Wait till masses get tested, numbers will be in tens of thousands if not more within 4 weeks.
Bob UK – you had good advice last week. Get away from the screen and negative news flow and go out and look at the moon and stars. Cheers!
Ditto……….I have completely withdrawn from all conversations involving the virus….
This is a trial run……for total control by the state…..way to many themes converging at one time…………jmo
Like duh……………..All is ok……..Victory…….”Mission Accomplished”?: President Xi Declares Victory Over Coronavirus In Visit To Wuhan
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mission-accomplished-president-xi-declares-victory-over-coronavirus-visit-wuhan
Almost exactly one month ago, President Xi, clad in a facemask and protective gear, ventured out of the Imperial City and out into the Beijing neighborhoods where he visited with hospital workers and posed for photos for the state-run media. Looking back, his decision to show up in person and visit with doctors and nurses probably accomplished what he intended: it gave the Chinese people hope that the leadership had not forgotten them, and that while the quarantine measures might seem draconian and overly punitive at times, the Communist Party would continue to do what it feels it must to maintain social order and protect the Chinese people.
One month later, President Xi is making his second major public visit since the outbreak began in late December. This time, he’s traveling to Wuhan – the epicenter of the outbreak – in what appears to be a “Mission Accomplished” moment for the leader of the world’s largest country in its battle against the novel coronavirus and Covid-19.
LIKE I SAID……………….Victory in two months…..hummm……planning or what?
testing…testing
Plunge Protection Team not saving the Stalingrad and Poorski 500 today…
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/deer%20headlights.jpg
Engaging PPT would be futile on a day like this. There’s no point in throwing money at the market when selling pressure overwhelms everything.
Dow down over 2100…Stalingrad and Poorski 500 down over 7.5%…
Chris Temple says you could not give him your silver right now. If anyone wants to give his silver away, I’ll be only too happy to take it. My big oils got creamed today and so did my mining shares.
Silver is at a 29 year low in real terms. Yes, it could get cheaper but the payoff will be worth it. Stocks will stop crashing and when they do, silver will move.
Ditto bb………..agree……Matthew………
+1, +2, and +3 for each of you.
If Mr T doesn’t want his Silver or other folks want to give theirs away, I will also volunteer to accept it and get it off their hands (if it is such a dead weight for them). 😉
The “industrial” importance is really being over-hyped in so many interviews lately, and the reality is that Silver has been a Precious Metal & real money for thousands of years, and will track far more with Gold than with Copper, Nickel, or Aluminum.
Really, Silver is still “poor man’s gold” and there aren’t many average global citizens that can fork out enough savings to buy meaningful positions in the yellow metal at $1670. However with Silver at $17-$18 or $20 or even $25, the average plebs can gradually start saving and amassing a position in it, and it will have NOTHING to do with it being an “Industrial Metal”.
This is precisely why there is a time drag and price drag in Silver before the masses start bidding it up in comparison to Gold, and it starts moving more when the speculative funds come in, trading most closely with the Gold & Silver mining stocks than even Gold. When Silver and the PM miners start to move, then the bull leg is on, but when Gold moves first without them, it is more of the initial safe haven leg where Gold moves with Bonds. Silver and the miners will catch up, and when they start running (regardless of the economic backdrop), I’ll want to hear daily explanations from all those beating on the “Silver is an Industrial Metal” drum.
The next thing for investors to consider is when will the bottom be reached. If we have a deflationary process underway, prices for commodities could just keep falling for who knows, How Long? The government, The Federal Reserve, and The Bankers created this mess, they should leave the system alone and let it be cleansed without intervention. DT
One catalyst could be a declining overall price in the dollar (not the dollar crash nuttiness that has been pumped for the last 2 decades), but just a weakening dollar, which would be inflationary to commodities.
The other concept that may underpin and then boost commodity prices would be the large infrastructure projects many nations have discussed, but not really implemented in mass yet. It would be big if the US started it’s massive infrastructure project often discussed in passing, but there are plenty of other developing nations and old world regimes that could start absorbing natural resources as they build bridges, roads, dams, buildings, oil/gas pipelines, electrical grid infrastructure, update technology, etc…
Commodities are still priced on the extreme low end historically, and just recently started to move up over the last few years in some of the moves from Iron, Zinc/Lead, Nickel, Tin, Palladium, Cobalt etc… but these have been a more limited markets. When Copper, Platinum, Uranium, Lithium, Phosphate & Agriculture minerals, Specialty Metals, and eventually Oil/Gas break out, then it will likely be tied to falling currencies and global infrastructure builds.
There were some interesting Commodity charts that Christopher Aaron reviewed in his talk from the Vancouver Resource Investors Conference last month along these same lines, that is really worth reviewing for anyone interested in the longer term trends for the Commodities.
State of the Resource Market in 2020 – Christopher Aaron
Cambridge House International – #VRIC – Feb 27, 2020 #VIDEO
RUBINO, MARTENSON AND BURSTING THE BUBBLE:
Black Monday: Shades of October 19th, 1987
by @Goldfinger on 9 Mar 2020
“Black Monday was a Monday in October 1987 in which the S&P 500 fell 22% during a single trading session. There are many similarities between then and now, including the fact that markets were already extremely shaky heading into today’s trading session and news deteriorated further over the weekend.”
“At this point the words “perfect storm” are already overused, however, they are indeed apropos. I couldn’t think of a more perfect scenario to crush global markets than the one we are experiencing right now.”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/black-monday-shades-of-october-19th-1987
Deja vu: I was a rookie full service broker in Dallas Gold Towers back that Monday, staring at the screen. All the rage at the time was “portfolio insurance”
(For what turned out to be the fool’s that bought in at the top)
This was a Deja Vu Monday market crash very reminiscent of the 87′ Black Monday.
I remember oil at 14$ bucks a barrel taking down the regional banks tooo
Mining Investment Roundtable Discussion at 2020 PDAC with David Erfle, Brian Leni & Mining Book Guy
MiningStockEducation – Mar 3, 2020
“The annual Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada Convention (PDAC) is the world’s largest and premier international event for the minerals and mining industry. At this event, Bill Powers hosted a roundtable discussion with David Erfle (JuniorMinerJunky.com), Nick Germain (MiningBookGuy.com) and Brian Leni (JuniorStockReview.com) to discuss the conference and current risks and opportunities for investors in the junior mining sector. Several companies were named in the discussion and insights were offered on how these full-time mining investors are navigating the current junior resource sector.”
Resource Fund Manager Matt Geiger Shares How He’s Positioning His Fund for 2020
MiningStockEducation – Feb 18, 2020 #AudioInterview
0:15 Introduction
1:07 Recapping 2019 performance of over 75% gains
3:56 Positioning the fund for 2020
6:09 Gold royalty trends and investment opportunities
12:52 Base metal royalty valuation vs. gold royalties
15:34 Discussing uranium stocks
21:44 What to look for in a uranium investment now
25:56 Due diligence process for niche metal plays
28:50 Discussing Ecuador as a mining jurisdiction
34:02 What Matt looks for in a development company
The Quant Approach to Picking Gold Stocks – Frank Holmes
Cambridge House International #VRIC – Feb 28, 2020 #VIDEO
Mining.com launches EV Battery Metals Index
Frik Els | March 3, 2020
“London-based Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a global battery supply chain, megafactory tracker and market forecaster, provides MINING.COM with monthly sales-weighted price data.”
“Toronto-based Adamas Intelligence, which tracks demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 90 countries provides the data for the raw materials deployed.”
https://www.mining.com/mining-com-launches-ev-battery-metals-index/
Hasbrouck gold project’s operation plan approved – (WKM) West Kirkland Mining
mining.com | March 9, 2020
“The US Bureau of Land Management accepted West Kirkland Mining’s (TSXV: WKM) mine plan of operation for the Hasbrouck gold project in Nevada.”
“The company is pleased to receive the BLM’s decision to commence the analysis of the Hasbrouck Mine pit and facilities under an EA and anticipates having federal permits for both the first and second phases of the Hasbrouck gold project in the near future,” the media brief states.
https://www.mining.com/hasbrouck-gold-projects-operation-plan-approved/
Just when shale and fracking…..is about to go belly up……….oil gets cheap…..hummm