Hour 1 – A Major Focus On The PM Bull Market and A Look At Europe’s Roll In Financial Markets
- Segment 1 – Extended Interview – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx – It’s more about politics rather than economics right now. We get into an in depth discussion on what is happening in Europe. This all begs the question of if the US markets can stay strong for the near term.
- Segment 2 and 3 – Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold – We all agree that this is an early stage bull market for gold but there are some near term swings to take note of. We also discuss how the stocks
- Segment 4 – Brien Leni, Founder of the Junior Stock Review – A look at the Abitibi District in Quebec in terms of companies with work programs and investment ideas.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
Agreed. Thanks for the long-weekend show guys and all the KER contributors.
Hey Ex. Regarding gzz……if I calculated right between rzz and gzz Mullen milked $740K in 2018 for basically doing nothing ( really was thinking more of an expression blanking the dog if you know what I mean)….cash is down to $2M roughly(might be up slightly since Jimmy Lee exercised his 2019 options). Without rzz getting bought out this could be dead money
Hi Wolfster – there are things moving on multiple fronts for GZZ not just with RZZ, but yes, another royalty company like Maverix or Metalla or Altius taking them out would be great. Even one of the big boys like Franco/Royal Gold/Wheaton/Sandstorm/or Osisko would be nice. I could even see Osisko doing it since they sold the Malartic Mine to Agnico Eagle + Yamana in the first place.
That is a valuable royalty and it doesn’t need to be bought out, as AEM and AUY could always start producing from that area and that NSR would start kicking out cashflows to RZZ & GZZ – another good outcome.
As for GZZ they also have projects going with Bonterra on Lac Barry which is going very well. BTR is getting all kinds of attention from Kirkland Lake KL and Eric Sprott because they have the mill in the windfall lake area next to Osisko (due to their acquisition of Metanor last year – which also makes Bonterra an active producer). This is also a huge plus for Golden Valley because they hold 519,480 shares in BTR Golden Valley Mines Mines now retains a 15% free carried interest in the Lac Barry Prospect and a 3% net smelter royalty (NSR).
Golden Valley Mines also holds an NSR on the Cheechoo Project, which ranges from 2.5% – 4.0% depending on commodity prices. The Cheechoo project is 100% owned by Sirios Resources.
Golden Valley Mines GZZ also retains a 1.5% Net Smelter Return on Centremaque that Alexandria Minerals has (being acquired by Osisko off-shoot).
Golden Valley also has a strategic investment of size in Val-d’Or Mining VZZ, as well as International Prospect Ventures IZZ and those 2 stakes are hard to value at this point, but they will build in value over time and those both have a ton of projects under their respective unbrellas.
Lastly, and quite importantly, GZZ Golden Valley Mines has a a 70:30 Joint Venture with Eldoardo Gold (formerly Ingetra Gold) in the group of nine (9) properties (8 gold and 1 copper-zinc-silver) located in the AGB (Québec and Ontario).
**Bottom Line: to only value GZZ based on its position in RZZ really leaves out a ton of projects, JVs, NSRs, and future royalty streams out of the picture, and would severely short changing the overall mix of assets.
GZZ Golden Valley Mines – Corporate Presenation
If you look at (pgs 7,8,9,10) get into the full value of projects in GZZ’s portfolio, and there is much more than just their stake in RZZ.
>> All things considered, GZZ should have the premium valuation to RZZ Abitibi Royalties, but it is the other way around at present, which is an arbitrage opportunity, irregardless of the future value of the royalties at the Malartic mine.
https://www.goldenvalleymines.com/investors/presentations/GZZJune2019website.pdf
Trevor Hall sits with Ian Ball, CEO of Abitibi Royalties Inc. (RZZ) (ATBYF)
MarketRadio – May 14, 2019 #AudioInterview
In speaking of the Net Smelter Royalty that GZZ Golden Valley Mines has on the Cheechoo project that Sirios is working on…. Here is some good news, and just another reason that Golden Valley should have the premium valuation over Abitibi Royalties.
_____________________
(SOI) Sirios obtains up to 97% gold recovery including 88% by gravity on the Cheechoo project
September 02, 2019
(BTR) (BONXF) Bonterra Resources Announces Closing of $32 million Private Placement
20 Aug 2019
“Sprott Capital Partners LP acted as lead agent on behalf of a syndicate of agents which included PI Financial Corp., RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and Haywood Securities Inc.”
“An insider (as such term is defined under applicable securities law) of the Company, (KL) Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd., has subscribed for 372,000 Units under the Offering (the “Kirkland Subscription”). This Kirkland Subscription constitutes a “related party transaction”
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/bonterra-resources-announces-closing-of-32-million
Developing Quebec’s next Gold Camp – Bonterra Resources (BTR) (BONXF)
July 2019 – Corporate Presentation
Resource expansion in the Urban-Barry Camp (right next to Osisko’s Windfall Lake)
http://btrgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BTR-Corporate-Presentation-2019-07-rev-3.pdf
(BAR) (BALMF) Balmoral Adds Three New Nickel-Copper-PGE Targets, RUM Project, Quebec
by @nasdaq on 26 Aug 2019
“Based on analysis of the geophysical signature of the intrusion hosting the nickel-copper-gold-platinum-palladium mineralization at Bluenose, Balmoral has staked two new properties, RUM Northwest and West and further expanded the RUM North property to acquire control of a three similar geophysical anomalies outside its existing property holdings.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/balmoral-adds-three-new-nickel-copper-pge-targets
Oops – I don’t know why this BAR post landed here as it was supposed to go at the bottom of the feed, but this is where the news was reported… (lol)
Hey Ex..I see I left out saying for the next few years as far as dead money goes…rzz has value now…Bonterra looks good going forwards…Cheechoo and Centremaque are still in the unproven category..vzz and izz I think we both agree is speculative long term at best and yes the Eldorado Gold seems interesting but is not a near term catalyst either…..all that said my real issue is how much Mullen is drawing out in compensation recently with very little value added…I know one needs to draw a salary but that seems excessive when combined with the options. Seems like Mullen has set himself up nicely and is already semi retired….also they constantly speak about how undervalued gzz is but even with that big salary last year he didn’t buy any shares unlike Ian Ball who still buys rzz shares with every pay cheque…..or maybe I just got up on the wrong side of the bed. 😉
Great points Wolfster. I would be happy to see Glenn out earning that salary by doing more interviews and promotion, (as he only does a few a year, and most are focused on the PDAC conference that he helps run), otherwise he could throttle that salary down some and quit making it a lifestyle company for him.
The JVs and Royalties he’s put together are commendable, but I’d like to see more of him buying shares on the open market as well, and yes, he seems semi-retired at this point and kind of checked out. I agree with you that Ian Ball is a better CEO and puts his money where his mouth is regularly, and the guy is a class act.
I don’t disagree that it could be a sleepy stock until Abitibi gets cashflowing or purchased, or until Bonterra takes things to the next level.
I do believe the Alexandra Minerals Centremaque asset (that is now acquired by the Osisko’s spin-out company) is intriguing and more likely to advance in the medium term, but still more work to be done. Since Osisko is back-stopping that project now, I have much more confidence in it.
The JV on the Eldorado Gold 9 projects are longer term value but those were some of the old Integra projects peppered around the Abitibi Greenstone Belt and that area has absolutely been heating up again lately, so those projects will get more eyeballs sooner rather than later.
To be clear GZZ Golden Valley isn’t my favorite Royalty company as I like Maverix, Metalla, EMX, and Sailfish much more…. but I believe GZZ is still very undervalued, where companies like Maverix and Metalla have already made big runs. Golden Valley just has more catching up to do, and it is odd that is stagnant when RZZ keeps breaking out to new highs.
Anyways, good comments and very fair critiques of GZZ and for now it is just a small position I’m holding for the longer game to unfold. I may add a bit too it down the road but I’m more focused on the actual miners at this point in the metals cycle. Cheers!!
Not sure if this link was posted yet. Eric Sprott really bullish on silver going forward…
https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-83019
It was posted on yesterday’s blog, but it really is worth people checking out as Eric Sprott was in rare form and he and Craig’s discussion on Silver supply was quite interesting.
Speaking of Silver and Eric Sprott:
(DV) (DOLLF) DOLLY VARDEN ANNOUNCES $3.5MM FINANCING AND STRATEGIC INVESTMENT BY ERIC SPROTT
Aug 26, 2019
Gary Cope President and CEO stated “We are very pleased to welcome Mr. Eric Sprott as a strategic investor in Dolly Varden. The significant investment from Mr. Sprott is a strong endorsement of our high grade silver assets in the Golden Triangle, British Columbia. This financing puts us in a very strong financial position and allows the Company to continue expanding its silver mineral resource with new high grade silver discoveries on the property.”
(BHS) (KXPLF) Bayhorse Silver explores Brandywine project in British Columbia
August 26, 2019
“After visiting Brandywine with our highly experienced geological team and seeing the easy access, with well-developed drill pads in place, and the ability to work year-round we believe the exploration will be very cost-effective,” Bayhorse CEO Graeme O’Neill said in the corporate media statement.
https://www.mining.com/bayhorse-silver-explores-brandywine-project-in-british-columbia/
On other forums I still see a lot of whining and moaning about mining stocks under-performance, but for those that positioned in the first assets to move in new uptrends – the Producers….. then they’ve done quite well in 2019.
Look at just this last 3 month Chart of the Jr Silver Producers.
(and yes, many of these stocks have done even better than these figures if measured off each of their unique bottoms), but this is a nice shapshot of the recent move, showing the right miners for this point in the cycle are, in fact, outperforming the moves in the metals.
SCZ – Santacruz Silver up 209%
SVM – Silvercorp Metals up 101%
GGD – GoGold Resources up 100%
USA – Americas Silver up 98.24%
SBR – Silver Bear up 85%
IPT – Impact Silver up 73%
FVI – Fortuna Silver up 68%
ASM – Avino Silver up 60%
EXN – Excellon up 55%
EDR – Endeavour Silver up 50%
GPR – Great Panther up 22%
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1emlgcm-Junior%20Silver%20Producers%20Three%20Month%20Chart.JPG
“I think #silver could go straight to 21. And the more I look at it, it looks more and more likely. I think we are in a massive runaway move. Over 18 and we light the after burner up to 21.” ~ Graddhy – Commodities TA
“If theres a pullback after breaking $18” .. “I would just try to hold on to my seat. It can gap up $1 from 18 and then one has lost one’s position.” ~ Graddhy
https://www.twitter.com/Graddhybpc/status/1165935532653862912
Silver Gains Twice as Much as Gold This Month
The Gold Forecast – Aug 30, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO
“While both of these precious metals had a stellar month, silver’s price gain dwarfed that of gold. Gold gained a respectable 6% in trading this month; however, silver was able to gain double digit’s with a monthly price advance of 11%.”
https://thegoldforecast.com/video/silver-gains-twice-much-gold-month
Silver looking good but what will it take to hit $50?
Kitco News – Aug 28, 2019 #VIDEO interview
“It may take another miracle to hit $50 an ounce for silver, said Todd Horwitz, chief strategist of BubbaTrading, but another analyst offers a different view.”
Gold Breaks US$1,550, Silver Close to US$20
Investing News – Aug 29, 2019 #VIDEO
“In this August update, the Investing News Network looks back at how precious metals fared for the month and what industry experts are saying about the sector.”
Brien Lundin: Gold is Rallying — Buy Juniors While You Can
Investing News – Aug 16, 2019 #VIDEO Interview
Brien Lundin on Why Gold Is Freedom
Bill Powers – Friday August 30, 2019 #AudioInterview
“In this episode Brien shares regarding why gold is freedom and how gold might be reinstituted as legal currency in America. He addresses whether he foresees the USA entering a recession. Brien also talks about how to play the mania phase of the current gold stock bull market. And he discusses what he wants to see in a junior mining private placement and whether the accredited investor rules are fair. Lastly, Brien provides an overview of this year’s upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference and what attendees can expect. ”
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-08-30/Brien-Lundin-on-Why-Gold-Is-Freedom.html
Silver Will Benefit From America’s Debt Crisis
by Nick Giambruno
https://internationalman.com/articles/silver-will-benefit-from-americas-debt-crisis
Silver Rally Is Stealing The Show Even As Gold Surges To 6-year High
Aug 30, 2019 – Myra P. Saefong
“Silver has gained more than Gold in August.”
“Precious metals scored impressive gains in August, with gold logging a fourth consecutive monthly rise, though silver steadily outpaced the price climb of its sister metal. Both have plenty of reasons to move even higher in the weeks to come, analysts said.”
“People are finally starting to believe that we are in a bull market in [precious] metals,” said James Hatzigiannis, senior strategist at Long Leaf Trading Group. “Silver is always known as a laggard to gold, and now you are seeing people getting into silver, and believing it’s a bull market.”
“December gold GCZ19, -0.01% settled at $1,529.40 an ounce on Friday, after hitting a more-than-six-year high earlier this week. Month to date, it has climbed by more than 6% and trades about 17% higher so far this year. Silver, by comparison, saw its December contract SIZ19, +0.75% finished Friday at a more than two-year high of $18.342 an ounce. It’s up around 11% month to date, with its yearly gain at roughly 18%.”
“Silver still has a lot of catch-up as the gold-silver ratio is still very high” at roughly 83 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold, said Drew Rathgeber, futures broker at Daniels Trading in Chicago.”
I think it’s easy to forget that we live in a little gold/silver bubble on KER. Perfect example, one of my best friends who had just come into a medium size inheritance and who is usually well informed asked my advice on where to invest some of his money and I suggested that he could put 10% in gold only to be told, ‘nobody buys gold anymore’. In addition, Alasdair Macleod seems to be suggesting that bullion banks covering their short bullion positions is perhaps currently a greater driver of the gold price than renewed investor interest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emCPrOyezSI In any case, seems to me this gold bull has hardly started.
Nigel…….
You can tell your buddy , when he loses his new found wealth, …..later, told ya so.. lol
You might even show your buddy a long term chart of gold returning an average of 9-9.7 % return……heck he can even figure it out on his own………
gold …..1971….. $35…….today….$1515 us…….But, do your own figuring on gold in terms of your local currency….will be a lot higher I bet…….jmo
Jerry,
The long-term average annual return of gold (1971 – 2019) is only about 8% based on a number of calculators that I used. Here is one of them below.
Of course during this same period the total return of stocks (price change plus dividends) easily beat gold by about 2% per year. Just want to point that out for any of you who think gold beat stocks because you only looked at the price change.
Hello JMiller………..
Just posted above from jsmineset……..
Sorry for the miscalculation,,,,,I was going by memory…when gold I know was higher, and the resent jsmineset chart.
We will come back and visit the stock vs.gold.in a few months……Hard to beat the Fed. on the purchase of the ever increasing stock market, and the ever manipulation of paper gold.
Wonder how GE……would calculate on a annual basis…… 🙂
Thanks for the calculator……….
Most people do not match the market for a variety of reasons so those who bought and held gold since 1971 have easily beat the vast majority of stock investors.
The powers that be tax gold heavily so that their various paper products can stand a chance.
Stocks come with many risks that gold does not so they should and do return more when things go right. That’s how it works.
Some good deep thoughts there my man……….. 🙂
Appreciate the commentary……….as alway……..ootb
dang…….always……..and I even proof read the dang thing….. 🙂
Matthew,
You state, “Most people do not match the market for a variety of reasons so those who bought and held gold since 1971 have easily beat the vast majority of stock investors.”
Yes, I would agree that for the very FEW people that could own gold since 1971, that they could very well have beaten most investors who were in stocks for those years. But the fact is gold bullion was not legal to own in the U.S. until 1975 unless you had a special license. So most people could not really own much in the way of gold until then. So just for fun if we measured just the price return of gold versus stocks from 1975 we find that gold increased only 750% while the S&P500 increased 3500%.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/
The fact still remains that the general stock market has easily beaten gold over the long-term and with less volatility as measure by the standard deviation.
Yes, but it is still a fact that the outperformance doesn’t mean much to most people. How many Kodaks have come and gone from the indices since 1975? And how many investors, even large ones, avoided the return-destroying effects of such companies? It wouldn’t take many such losers to ruin one’s long term results and there have been many. In the real world, real people are the bag-holders while the indices reflect a much rosier picture due to their ditching of the dogs and replacing them with winners.
Still, I don’t know why everyone likes to compare money with investments. There are times to be invested and times to be in cash but those who price the stock market in funny money don’t know this.
In addition, in the 1930s, ’70s, and last decade, saw stocks fall almost 90% in real terms. Gold doesn’t suffer such real declines since its bear market declines coincide with declines in commodities (the building blocks) in general.
Gold remains the safest and most stable asset. Example: It took roughly 35 ounces of gold or less to buy the Ford Model T for most of its production run and 35 ounces today will still buy the modern day equivalent even though today’s equivalent is far superior in every way (because real money naturally goes UP in value over time, not down).
Measured in 1930 dollars, the Dow is trading at $357.00 today, not $26,403. So it’s plain to see that, similar to the gold price, the price of the stock indices reflect the weakening of the dollar/inflation more than economic growth.
And gold fell almost 90% in real terms in the 80’s and 90’s.
That is not true even in nominal terms. It fell 70% versus the dollar measuring from the 1980 spike high to the late 1990’s low. It fell less than that versus commodities.
Gold lost 70% in nominal terms. After taking into account inflation, which is what real terms mean, it lost about 86%. Who cares about what other commodities did.
Hellooo? Commodities reflect inflation by… going UP. Does the dollar buy less gasoline when oil drops? Or less bread when wheat drops?
Hellooo? Inflation includes more than just commodities. And no, the dollar does not buy more gasoline if oil drops or less bread if wheat drops. Why should it?
Exactly. The dollar buys more of those goods when the underlying commodity drops and so does gold. The fact that all commodities tend to fall WITH gold is precisely why gold’s nominal losses during a bear market are greater than its real losses. The opposite tends to be the case when stocks fall which is why their nominal declines during a bear market tend to be LESS than their real declines.
Example: During the bear market of the 1970s, the Dow fell about 46% at its worst in nominal terms but fell 95% in real terms (vs gold). So it was worse than the collapse of 1929 (-89%) when measured in real money.
Remember, the dollar was as good as gold during the collapse of ’29 so that 89% loss was both nominal and real.
I have often gotten the same response Nigel when I have either recommended or condoned buying a portion of gold. And by portion Im referring to a small percentage (5-10%) of ones wealth. It seems many people regard gold as fanciful and useless in todays world.
Another aspect that I cant fathom is the perceived risk in buying a small amount of gold that many people believe in. Yes the price could go up, it could go down. No one knows for certain. But this applies to alot of lifes choices: Theres no such thing as a sure thing.
If one is investing and not trading and they have a reasonable time frame on their hands, then what is the big deal? I mean we seem to have no qualms with dealing over excessive amounts in car insurance in the unlikely event of a car accident or home and contents insurance in the unlikely event of property theft/damage. We accept exorbitant cost of living bills that can be minimised through self choice ie: vehicle fuel, utilities, food, internet etc etc. We love to drown ourselves in debt with purchases that either depreciate or retain no value: cars, boats, holidays, clothes, gadgets. We love to fuel our addictions and impulses that can often have detrimental physical, mental and emotional consequences. Yet when someone mentions some wealth diversification that is certainly within most peoples means, we are shunned and ridiculed???
I guess ignorance is bliss right?
The funny thing is, no other asset is as much of a “sure thing” as gold over the long haul.
Haha too right Matthew. The irony is priceless!
Top quality guns, guitars, and violins have done better than gold. In 1934 when gold was $35/oz my mom got a Martin 00-17 guitar for $25, and now it is worth several thousand.
In 1947 the one acre lot next door to me was worth 2K and now it is for sale for 2 million. If my grandparents had put $1000 into Phillip Morris in 1925 and held on to all the spin-offs, it would be worth over 200 million today.
Yes, countless things have beat gold but collectibles are never a sure thing when new and all stocks come with vastly more risk than gold (and are, therefore, less of a sure thing by far).
I own very little gold right now because I don’t feel like I need the surest thing. I prefer riskier items that will beat gold by a country mile.
Yes, I’d rather have more in the riskier miners that have Gold and Silver locked up in the vault of the earth, and will be producing more of the metals each year, than horde the physical. If things get really wild, they can be cashed out and coverted to physical, but things will degrade for years before that happens and the miners will be coveted as they sit about deposits of true value.
Well-stated Ozibatla & Matthew.
Nigel – great comments, and I believe most readers and listeners here have had similar experiences recommending to other to allocate a small portion (5-10%) of assets into precious metals related assets, and gotten the “pet rock” talk or that it is antiquated.
It is funny to me that when we look at Central Banks that they are ramping up their buying of Gold so the must see it as money, not a pet rock.
When I feel disconnected from the average Joe in following this sector so closely, it helps to remember that the big boys are buying from most of the top Billionaire Hedge Fund managers to Central Banks, and I put more weighting on that, then what Joe Blow is doing.
The fact that investing in PMs is not en vogue in the West (because it definitely is in the East), is a great thing because it isn’t a blow off bubble like what we saw in the Cryptos in 2017 or Pot Stocks in 2018.
When every other commerical or article is about buying Gold & Silver in the media, and when major financial shows start featuring Gold pundits then it will be time to worry that a real bubble is forming.
For now, Gold is just pricing in the insanity we see in geopolitical trends, a low to ngative interest rate environment, the flat and bordering on inverted yield curve, and the unpayable mountains of debt taken on by nations that will drive the confidence down in their fiat in the great Currency Wars.
For now, being a contrarian investors feels very good. 🙂
Raoul Pal – Verified account
“Could it be that the gold chart versus 27 currencies is consistent with this story of deflationary collapse?”
Being the contrarian investor I am, the PMs are a very large portion of my portfolio. It’s another reason I am now slowly building on my uranium position. I cannot think of a better investment in today’s global environment then the PMs and their attendant stocks. The fundamentals along with the technicals are screaming “buy”. History is also extremely supportive of our views.I believe that the PM stocks and the PMs are now entering a doldrum phase until the end of this year and/or into 2020. Ir’ll be a great opportunity to add to positions.The bull has just begun.
Uranium will be a big opportunity next………but, the big boyz, cia, corrupt agency will not allow anyone to profit…………jmo
Where is Frank G………..better do some home work DOC………
Uranium One…..tip of the corruption………….
Now those US Uranium assets that Uranium One got in that transaction have mostly been spun out into (AEC) Anfield Energy.
> Anfield Resources Inc. acquired the Shootaring Canyon Mill from Uranium One in 2015.
> Anfield holds 24 uranium projects in six active project areas that is acquired from Uranium One.
> Anfield has also acquired a database of drilling and geologic work done by Uranium One that includes 575 drill holes totaling approximately 395,000 feet of drilling.
> Velvet-Wood Deposit is the most advanced hard rock asset in Anfield’s uranium portfolio and it got many of the studies and research in Uranium One’s archives relating to it.
> Anfield has the Findlay Tank Breccia Pipes are located in northern Arizona that it also got from Uranium One.
> In addition, Uranium One pointed Anfield Energy to their new focus, the Charlie Uranium Project – so that is can be first in the cue to Process at Uranium One’s Irigary central processing plant in Wyoming. Uranium One would like to do the toll mining, for Anfield on those WY ISR projects, and so it is synergistic relationship.
Bottom line, the US assets from Uranium One that so many are still worried about are mostly found in the company Anfield Energy now, and Uranium One divested them prior to the 2016 election.
Few are really connecting the dots in that regard.
Anfield Energy (TSX-V: AEC) – Deep Dive into this Acquisitive Uranium Explorer’s strategy
CRUX Investor – Jul 20, 2019 #VIDEO interview
“Anfield Energy believes it is near production than any of the currently non-producing uranium companies so ready to take advantage when the market turns. The majority of its Uranium assets are in the USA. Both ISR and conventional hard rock Uranium assets. Initial focus is on Wyoming ISR asset. The nearest term asset which is the Charlie asset. Long term focus in Utah and Colorado and conventional Uranium assets. ”
“Charlie is a State lease in between 2 Uranium One mines, who they will be partnering. Uranium One will be process.”
Doc – I agree that investing in Uranium stocks may be the ultimate contrarian investment, and I believe capitalizing on any tax loss selling weakness for the balance of the year will be greatly rewarded in early 2020. Typically there is a nice run in Uranium stocks from around November through February so looking to see if that pattern will rhyme again this time.
I’m still holding positions in Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Uranium Energy Corp, NexGen, and Anfield, but there are another half dozen I plan on adding back to the portfolio later this year like Denison, Peninsula, UEX, ALX, and Skyharbour, as well as the nuclear fuel companies Lightbridge, and Centrus.
Ever Upward!
You guys are going to be playing ball with the REAL BIG BOYS……just saying…..
Just be careful…..with your cash…………as I know you will be , up to the extent of your info . provided by other sources…….by those who want your cash…… 🙂
OOTB – I’m ready to give those Big Boys a good game…. just sayin’ 🙂
I consider the Uranium miners less risky than most, but will cocede that in the investing universe it is quite out there on the contrarian limb. Rick Rule loves to quote that “investors are either contrarians or they’re a victim.”
In this case, I agree with Rick that Uranium is not really an “If?” question, and more of a “When?” question. From that standpoint, investing in the Uranium miners down at these levels is far less risky, than in investing in the general equities markets at all time highs, when the bond market just thew up the bat signal for a recession in the next 12-18 months.
There’s a risk in any investment, but after a decade of study, I feel comfortable with the risks I’m taking in the Uranium sector in my Trading Account, and FAR more nervous about my mostly US Mutual Funds and Stocks in my Retirement Account.
If that wasn’t bad enough, I’m very concerned about what wacko politicians will come next that want to tax the crap out of my assets and I’m for more on edge about our government wanting my cash, than giving 2 hoots about my Uranium portfolio’s assets.
We’ll see how this 90 day focus group on the nuclear industry goes, but again, those results should be out in November, so it’s a good time to buy in front of that news.
cocede = concede
Ex, I agree with your comments and I’m content with OOTB Jerry’s ultimate puke with these stocks. However, I’ve been around long enough to know when people really hate a particular sector completely and there are some decent companies with good management teans to run them, it is then time to take some positions. I can remember just recently when there were tons of folks on this site that were going gaga for uranium and the companies after they had a run and were warned to be careful. Now there is hardly anyone that is positive about this sector. I love it and will now buy a number of possibilities on the cheap. The technicals and fundamentals are horrible but that is what makes contrarianism the ultimate risk.
Absolutely, buying when sentiment is terrible, but where the fundamental backdrop shows a sea change on the horizon, and where there are still quality companies is a great place to dig up unrecognized value.
After the petition for Section 232 didn’t definitively give a quota system to the advantage of US Uranium miners, those companies sold off 40% which was a HUGE over-correction in a very short time and hit the sell stops all the way down. I’ve been nibbling a little bit more at the the 5 companies I hold, and am considering adding others, but there has been too much action in the Gold and Silver miners to pull funds away from them lately.
I’ll be adding more to existing positions and starting a few new postions though over the next few months while there is blood in the streets….
Good luck, best ……… I was thinking of posting a THREE BLIND MICE cartoon to the post…..but, I thought that would be cruel to the mice………. lol
Haha! Yes, let’s not be mean to the mice.
Let’s take a different perspective though. What about looking at the trend change that is underway and focus on the book – “Who Moved My Cheese?” 😉
Dang Cheese with a lot of holes in it………..lot of room to move around…… 🙂
Going forward the cheese will be melting and a sharp cook will be able to control the fire.
🙂
If the cheese is melting, I’m making a pizza 😉
Of course…..I bet RIck , knows Frank, and Frank , likes to deal……. 🙂
7 Experts Break Down Top Uranium Misconceptions
Investing News – Aug 29, 2019 #VIDEO Interview
“The uranium space is notoriously opaque and can be difficult for investors to understand. ”
What’s Going to Move Uranium Prices?
Investing News – Aug 30, 2019 #VIDEO Interview
“Uranium prices have been depressed in recent years, and investors and industry experts have been closely watching factors that could drive them higher.”
CALIFORNIA LEGISLATURE— 2019–2020 REGULAR SESSION
ASSEMBLY CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT NO. 18
August 28, 2019
“This measure would require that the state’s programs relating to renewable energy and climate change include nuclear energy as a renewable energy resource and zero-carbon resource. The measure would require that the state’s programs relating to renewable energy and climate change include electrical generating facilities that use nuclear energy as renewable electrical generation facilities, eligible renewable energy resources, and zero-carbon resources. The measure would require renewable electrical generation facilities, eligible renewable energy resources, and zero-carbon resources to include, for licensing and certification purposes, electrical generating facilities that use nuclear energy. ”
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200ACA18
Agreed Doc and Excelsior, the bull looks to have just begun and having a contrarian view is a fine outlook to have in my eyes.
Indeed. More a question of when? the breakout happens at this point.
Ever cautious Jordan. Appreciate his hesitancy to get too bullish and suggest this is a BUTT moment. However, (there’s always one of those) we can’t forget the trillions of debt with negative yield and the figure is growing. I mention this because when the last Bull Market in PM’s happened, I don’t think we had that problem in the world. So, I’m wondering, why is it kosher to analyze this young bull market in the same manner as we did 10-12 years ago when actually, we’re in a different world financially and several other ways. Might not things react a bit different because of those massive changes in world finances???? Just sayin’.
Good thought on the …when actually, we’re in a different world financially and several other ways
Matter of fact…….it is critical thinking……way ahead of the pack…… 🙂
+1
Thanks for the show Cory and Al!
Here’s some info from Stansberry Research. It’s a sales message but John is a good listen……….https://orders.cloudsna.com/?cid=MKT422046&eid=MKT422996&step=start&plcid=PLC054038&SNAID=SAC0005597549&encryptedSnaid=asipTGuLbRsviTTnJcB9GC4sZKIe%2FA2ALlaFBw%20zGtY%3D&emailjobid=4103702&emailname=20190831-GSAP-Dedicated-DIG&assetId=AST114934&page=1
Give us the high lights………..I stopped listening to Stansberry , because of the sales pitches……Thank OOTB
Basically Doody’s thought is a min. double of gold. He backs the thought up because of past examples when the interest rate curve inverted. So, min. $2400. Advise is to buy the right miners to take advantage. He’ll sell you that info. He does see things happening much faster than many………Now, back to my football pool studying….
SD………thanks for the reply……….and I would have to agree……double at a min….it, we just be the time frame.
I just finished up on Golden Jackass, and the Turd report………. 🙂
we …to will…….dang proof reading …
Good information about the CEO and the way he manages gzz. That is disappointing to hear especially since I am a shareholder. I like there assets, but I might need to rethink that position.
I got into GZZ at lower prices and for their portfolio of assets, not so much what the CEO does; however, I agree with Wolfsters points above.
For me Golden Valley’s huge stake in Abitibi Royalties, Bonterra, Siros, Alexandria Minerals, Val-d’ Or, International Prospect Ventures, and Eldorado Gold are the longer term prize, but it would be nice to see a bit more action at some of the other JV parters projects. Bonterra’s is the most interesting and I follow it closely as a shareholder.
Have you looked at royalty companies like Maverix, Metalla, EMX, Sailfish, Altius, Ely Gold, Millrock, or AngloPacific?
RBC Capital Markets – Select Groups Cycle Positions (individual bear and bull markets)
Great cycle #Chart. Take note of where Gold and Silver are positioned. 🙂
Good analysis by Rambus above!
A #Chart of $GDXJ Gold Juniors vs $SILJ Silver Juniors.
It is very easy to see which one has the better performance on rallies.
> Will this time be different? #TheTrendIsYourFriend
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1emm5j0-GDXJ%20Gold%20Juniors%20or%20SILJ%20Silver%20Juniors.JPG
With gold and silver both scoring their best monthly gains in 3 years, I wonder where the gold price will be when silver breaks its 2016 high? With silver still around $3 off that 2016 high, gold could be north of $1700 if and when this occurs. Of course this is all guess work.
HYCT aka ANV Hycroft Mining Corporation is currently in the final phases of proving a large-scale innovative two-stage sulfur ore oxidation process without the traditional method of using a mill, thus eliminating the need for hundreds of millions of dollars in capital to sustain the production of mining gold and silver at the mine near Winnemucca.
A lot of people are seeing an intermediate cycle top in the miners now and I can see why, but I don’t believe we are there yet. The top-callers see the overbought readings, the latest weekly candlestick and the 161.8% extension of the move that topped in February (GDX) while I see underlying strength that will keep the overbought readings intact and probably yield a 200% extension or more. GDX corrected 8%+ in July and 8%+ in August so the steep uptrend is probably healthier than most people realize. The charts and indicators I look at suggest no more than a short term top (lasting 2-3 weeks at most).
I am confident that a top that lasts for months is still months away.
Some GDX supports to watch:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15192704186&a=685235016
There’s not much resistance above the current level:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=13&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70492374657&a=675431182
We could get a small heathy pull back on the GDX before we we head higher.
Yes we could and it would be healthy.
Good charts as always Matthew. Your right, looking at the weekly chart I can see GDX getting towards 36-38. We shall see.
List of 2019 TSX Venture “50” Winners. https://www.tmxmoney.com/en/pdf/V50_2019_winners.pdf
WHN Westhaven Ventures Inc. ° 65,908,876 1.43/0.10 0.13 1.35 980% 7,719,705 114,692,343 1386% 84,957,291 – BC Canada
2 FVAN First Vanadium Corp. 52,306,222 1.96/0.22 0.22 0.80 264% 4,552,929 31,040,732 582% 38,800,915 – BC Canada
3 GBR Great Bear Resources Ltd. 37,791,544 3.50/0.39 0.40 2.36 497% 5,923,419 85,275,322 1340% 36,133,611 1 BC Canada
4 SIL SilverCrest Metals Inc. 32,222,578 4.05/1.75 1.79 3.99 123% 96,713,866 338,841,306 250% 84,922,633 10 BC Canada
5 CCW Canada Cobalt Works Inc. ° 83,603,211 0.90/0.19 0.35 0.50 43% 19,590,720 37,516,324 92% 75,032,647 – BC Canada
6 LI American Lithium Corp. 29,899,871 0.74/0.22 0.23 0.42 83% 1,349,014 25,630,812 1800% 61,025,742 – BC Canada
7 CAD Colonial Coal International Corp. ° 24,440,934 0.58/0.11 0.14 0.50 270% 20,082,743 74,911,247 273% 149,822,494 – BC Canada
8 KNT K92 Mining Inc. 70,102,494 1.04/0.42 0.54 0.84 56% 87,343,331 152,419,024 75% 181,451,219 3 BC Canada
9 MGG Minaurum Gold Inc. 33,467,107 0.67/0.23 0.26 0.48 88% 60,876,829 148,290,742 144% 308,939,046 – BC Canada
10 PAC Pacton Gold Inc. 201,257,080 1.02/0.24 0.29 0.33 12% 16,071,414 38,739,418 141% 119,198,209 1 BC Canada
Some HUGE % gains…………THANKS DT…………
The one that surprised me was Colonial Coal, although it’s price has dropped somewhat from Dec, 2018. It all comes down to supply and demand, having said that if the market corrects I can see some commodities going down in price, but not precious metals. DT
I saw that,….I was surprised as well……….
The next 2 charts show how GDXJ needs to confirm GDX…
GDX:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=7&mn=9&dy=0&id=p31433254744&a=685496339
GDXJ:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36509895538&a=385422417
Notice that both etfs have already bested their 2016 performances relative to the Fibonacci fan tool (among other measures).
Nickel goes nuts
Nickel has surged through US$18,000 to reach a near four-year high.
02 September 2019 – Kristie Batten
https://www.miningnews.net/capital-markets/news/1370569/nickel-goes-nuts
Ramu sends Nickel price to 5-year high amid tightest market in decade
Frik Els | August 30, 2019
“Nickel is now up 65% since the start of the year, rocketing more than 8% to $17,695 per tonne in London on Friday, the highest since September 2014. As an indication of just how tight supply has become, in London the spread between spot prices and nickel for delivery in three months spiked to the highest in a decade.”
“The nickel price jumped to a record high in Shanghai to the equivalent of $18,342 per tonne, surpassing the value of tin on that futures market for the first time.”
https://www.mining.com/ramu-sparks-fresh-nickel-price-high-amid-tightest-market-in-decade/
The US $ just hit the 99 mark for the first time since May ’17. Without an imminent and drastic reversal, this could spell a good time for gold to reverse in the short term. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Since its breakout in May gold hasnt really corrected to any great extent.
Perhaps the inverse relationship between gold and the dollar returns in the interim. Afterall, they have both been rising in tandem of late. I personally don’t see the dollar going much above parity if it were to reach that point.
Ozibatla – Good thoughts on the US Dollar and how that may factor into the Gold price and potential correction soon.
Yes, with the greenback at 99.11 it may get up and poke at 100 or 101, but I’d be surprised in this economic backdrop to see it run away up in to the 110-120 zone as so many have called for the last few years. Eventually, it will get top-heavy and roll over and head back down, and if that starts, the concern is that it won’t stop heading lower when the dam breaks.
For now Gold and the Dollar and Bond have been getting the safe-haven bid, and that is why Gold has been rising in tandemn with the Dollar. However, this would be a good spot (under the $1550 resistance) to see Gold consolidate down in price, or channel sideways and consolidate through time.
The concern that Jordan raised on if Gold just keep trucking up into the mid $1600’s or even $1700 is that it will have moved too much too fast, but if that plays out, I’m well positioned for it and will celebrate the moves in the miners. However, for longer term strength, it is best to do the 2 steps forward, 1 step back stair-step up approach rather than going parabolic.
If the US Dollar does roll over later in the year or more likely in the first half of 2020, then that would be a tailwind for Gold & Silver and we’d see more of an inverse relationship form again. For now, I don’t expect a major change one way or the other in the Dollar though, but the global trade wars, currency wars, and huge debt burdens countries have will eventually come home to roost.
Likewise Excelsior, good thoughts! Ultimately alot has changed in the global economic backdrop over the last 12-24 months. Much of this change has been for the worse. Subsequently, I agree that the US dollar is not heading to 120, 110 is even unlikely.
Golds ascension into a fresh bull market has thus far been quite impressive. Therefore I believe it is imperitive to just cool the jets for a little while in order to build for more sustainable moves into the back end of this year and also 2020. Similar to what you quoted Jordan was stating.
Hopefully silver continues to build as it has more work to do to confirm a new bull market within itself (clear $21 which is the 2016 high) . Im now confident this will happen as we approach years end and this is a boon for the gold market as well.
All-Stars #49 Jeff Snider: Yield curves don’t lie. But central bankers sometimes do.
All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik Townsend discuss:
– Jeff explains why banks are willing to pay thru the nose for negative-yielding sovereign debt
– If sovereign bonds serve as an insurance policy for the banking system, what do they see coming they need to insure against?
– Why the problem is not really term premia, as Janet Yellen recently suggested
Graphs and charts are presented as evidence against the term premia argument
– Why Gold is up so much despite Dollar strength
– The Long Eurodollar Futures trade and why it’s become so popular lately
Argentina imposes currency controls to support economy
1 hour ago – BBC News
“The Chinese #yuan share of international payment drops to 1.81% in July – it peaked at 2.8% in August 2015, no real progress on mythical RMB internationalization.” ~ Mike Bird
https://www.twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1168405250459332609
China Imposes New Capital Controls, Targets Foreign Real Estate Purchases, as Yuan Falls to 11-Year Low
by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2019
“China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has rolled out a new set of currency controls to crack down on capital flight from China to other countries, particularly targeting real estate investments by Chinese individuals and companies. This new set of currency controls include limits for real estate investors that make raising funds via foreign currency debt nearly impossible and stricter oversight of China’s banks that handles these transactions.”
Rescued China Lender Suspends Payments on Dollar Securities
Bloomberg News – September 1, 2019
• Bank of Jinzhou capital ratio fell below regulatory minimum
• Suspended payment comes after state enterprises took stakes
A regional Chinese lender under the spotlight for liquidity strains plans to suspend dividend payments on its offshore preference shares, sending indicated prices on those securities tumbling.
Bank of Jinzhou Co., which was the subject of a government-orchestrated rescue in July, said Sunday that it’s seeking shareholder approval to halt dividends for the year through Oct. 26. That’s after its capital-adequacy ratios failed to meet regulatory requirements.
“The bank’s dollar AT1s — the riskiest type of bank bonds — tumbled by some 20 cents on the dollar, according to traders contacted by Bloomberg. That suggests the news came as a surprise to some market players, even though officials had moved to shore up the lender in the wake of the seizure of one of its peers by regulators over a raft of troubles.”
“It would be a shock to some investors who view Chinese bank AT1s as fixed-rate bonds, and is likely to affect the ability of smaller banks to issue them — and the price they have to pay,” said David Marshall, co-head of Asian bank research at CreditSights Inc.
Silver is up to $18.58 today on a quiet Labor Day.
It would be nice if could hold onto these gains today, and maybe head higher in Asian markets overnight, and start tomorrow even higher in the US markets. Then the shorts could wake up and see the price plowing higher and do a laundry drop in their shorts.
Happy Holiday!
Good thoughts from a prior poster here FranSix on Silver spot versus futures for tomorrow:
“Basically the spot price close in Silver on Tuesday should match the Dec futures contract advances happening now.”
Silver futures hit 18.685 today. Here’s a non-log look:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0tdJNEyG/
Yes indeed!
Rick Rule: Silver Demand Increasing As Negative Yielding Debt Continues To Grow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFGVcJ35WLA
BARRON’S GOLD MINING INDEX
http://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/free/fchart-BGMI.php
The Great Precious Metals Meltup – Gold, Silver and Platinum updates…
Clive Maund – Sunday, September 01, 2019
“It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes.”
“The reason for setting out all of the above is to make sure you understand why the current rally in the Precious Metals is not “just another rally” that will lead to another heavy correction or a reversal. It looks very much at this point like the start of a mammoth meltup. This is vital to grasp, because if this is the case, then once you find worthy investments in the sector, you can take positions and then sit on them.”
This is really the second leg of the bull that started almost 20 years ago (notice that gold never dipped below its quarterly Ichimoku Cloud?) so it’s nice to see that someone recognizes the likelihood of a mammoth melt-up. Regardless of the scale, the second leg of a bull move tends to unfold more quickly and more powerfully than the first leg.
If I’m wrong and this is the final leg of the bull that began about 50 years ago, we can expect an even greater acceleration.
Dang ditto on that comment………….starting about 20 yrs ago…….I think a few got fooled by the 2011 fake play…..jmo
I think that is SPOT ON……..commentary………I think you have to be an old fart to see it……… 🙂
😲🧐👍
+20
For some reason I am inputting this article from jsmineset…Holter …..from three years ago, in hopes it might ring a bell
https://www.jsmineset.com/2016/08/07/chart-of-the-century/ .
Thanks OOTB. Very interesting chart in that article.
JC Parets: Precious Metals Have Shown Major Relative Strength
Palisade Radio – Sep 3, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #AudioInterview
0:40 – His CMT education and luck in 2008.
2:40 – Bullish on gold and silver since last year.
5:20 – Positioning for a recession.
7:00 – Recession indicators.
8:40 – Favorite indicators.
13:20 – Authors and books on T.A.
15:20 – Keep learning, question and try new things.
Chris Duane, SILVER BULL: This Will Really BE The MOST EPIC BULL MARKET EVER!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naXscpGei4c
Great interview with Chris Duane. Worth the listen!
Andrew Yang Debunked: Free Stuff Is Not Freedom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfKcXBnZMkA
Thanks as always gentlemen…another great show….especially enjoyed listening to Brien Leni….slight bias obviously since I’m big on the abitibi region as well and he slipped pure gold into conversation too.