The Breakdown In The S&P Has 2000 and 2007 Similarities & 2 Commodities To Watch
Chris Kimble, Founder of Kimble Charting Solutions shares a couple key charts for the S&P and two commodities that are bouncing. The US markets are on everyone’s mind after the recent pullbacks. The first chart below is something Chris and I chatted about a couple weeks ago before the breakdown happened. There are some scary similarities to 200 and 2007. As for the 2 commodities that are bouncing, think coffee and sugar (these charts are below).
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S&P
Coffee and Sugar
Coffee and moving averages
Personally, I think the best way to do this would be to inverse/short all the coffee house hipsters.
The best way I found so far are to invest in student loan providers like Navient.
Note: Not investing advice, just a good chuckle.
I think I’ll buy a refigerated warehouse and fill it up with coffee ice cream before its price goes up.
CANE – for sugar. BJO – for coffee.
Here’s the chart I posted a couple weeks ago when CANE broke out:
http://schrts.co/JkkSiV
Hi Matthew – What are the chances ISVLF makes new lows? The weekly and the daily charts look pretty ugly at the moment.Based on the RSI, MACD and Slow Stochs, it looks like there is some more room to the downside. Thanks in advance.
It’s not just ISVLF. The whole silver complex looks terrible. I’ll concede though that there is room for it yet to run to the upside technically and certainly from the lopsided CoTs, in the short run. The odds of August marking a long term low though are near zero.
But the gold miners do not look terrible and I think you’ll agree that the silver miners won’t make new lows by themselves.
Anything is possible here frankly. But even with this ominous action in silver and silver miners, I still think they could run higher over the next few weeks and maybe even for a month or two. But ultimately, I think both silver and gold go below the August low.
I think new lows are very unlikely despite the ugly charts. The sharp pullback has filled the 10/11 gap and partially filled the 9/28 gap (I measure gaps from the previous close).
Based on the metals and the miners in general, I think it might have already found its low this morning. Of course, I was wrong about it reaching at least .30 before pulling back so…???
http://schrts.co/ozCXCh
Two nearby fork supports:
http://schrts.co/Myx2AA
Thanks Matthew. If you draw a trend line connect the early September low and the end of September low and extend the line it looks like it could go as low as $0.22, but your forks are also supportive, but since they are pointed down the stock could still go lower next week IMO. I also don’t like the fact that Early August high and the late July high were not taken out by the most recent move up. I sold a bit near the recent high and was looking to buy a little back, but seems like the best course right now is to be a little patient and see what happens. If next week we end the week lower it would seem that new lows might be in the cards.
29 cents marks a Fibonacci fan support for IPT that goes back 12 years. If this month closes below that, IPT could see .23-.22 in a hurry. Right now, I doubt that will happen. Here’s the chart if you can view a monthly one:
http://schrts.co/2Ydibx
Unfortunately I am one of those souls that can’t see the monthly charts you post, but good to know and I will keep it in mind. Since we are only mid month there is plenty of time for it to hit the mark.
Based on everything else I’m looking at, I can’t be too bearish here. It looks like a perfectly healthy breakout and back-test. The sharpness of the decline (following a 38% gain in 30 sessions) is actually not bearish since sharp declines shake small money out and keeps it fearful. This happens on every scale which is why the bear markets of 1987 and 2008 were so brief relative to the multi-year bulls in which they happened.
Bearish action keeps that money in the trade and hoping by dropping more slowly and in fits and starts – one step forward and two steps back.
http://schrts.co/6wPqNv
Yeah I have realized that over time. Still the retracement is almost 100% which seems excessive for a break out. But maybe the fact that it has not taken out 100% is a slight positive if it holds here. The fact that the 5, 10, and 20 day moving averages are all headed down and above the current price is keeping me on the sideline for now.
Based on the 9/4 low, the retracement is exactly 75% so far.
No sidelines for me right now.
Allright, I bought in half of what I sold and will buy more if it confirms a change in trend.
Actually, on the daily chart, ISVLF could be setting up a nice H&S pattern, with the head/neckline being established by today’s low. Next comes a bounce to form the right shoulder.
If ISVLF does bounce over the next few weeks, as opposed to just completely breaking down next week, the key will be getting above .27. It think that is going to extremely tough now. How often so we see H&S patterns in the metals not play out? they are almost guaranteed patterns. The H&S pattern if triggered would project down to .15.
Thanks. i thought about that too. Can you have a downward sloping neckline and still meet the strict definition of a head and shoulders pattern?
Absolutely. Arguably the worst kind of H&S is when the neckline slants downward from right to left.
GLD:SLV daily chart is arguably forming a H&S top with an upsloping neckline. that is one of the slightly positive factors in the miners’ favor. But that ratio could collapse by gold collapsing more than silver. I don’t think the miners will be skyrocketing under that scenario.
Sorry meant to say from “left to right”.
Got it. Thanks.
Thanks for your thoughts JDSU.
GLD is tangling with important resistance but the weekly MACD and STOs could hardly look better:
http://schrts.co/xb5c7P
GLD daily:
http://schrts.co/uyfoH8
GDX just might be setting up for a quick move to 22:
http://schrts.co/1WTvqS
The HUI’s weekly MACD histogram is weak. It’s also putting in a doji candle this week. This isn’t overtly bullish action any way you slice it. Nothing would surprise me next week, up or down, but this isn’t action supports the notion of some sort of rocket ride upward. If by some miracle the September low does mark the low , then I still think it is going to grind higher for the next few months before setting up a larger move.
Also the fact that we gapped up so far from the 3 WMA is not bullish at all. It almost always marks a reversal.
It is not short term bullish but it is bullish.
I didn’t say there was going to be a rocket ride.
If you wait until the histogram is strong, you’ll miss a lot of the move. I far prefer my approach of buying major weakness rather than waiting for the certainty that everyone else is looking for. We all need to do what we’re comfortable with.
It is a mistake to call it a miracle if the September low holds. I say that it most likely will hold so calling it a miracle allows you to think that you didn’t miss anything in your analysis.
I sure won’t call it a miracle if you are correct.
@Goldfinger – “$GDX prints a perfect doji (literally perfect) on the weekly:”
“MACD bull crosses on the weekly as price range narrows and volume drops off, normal and healthy action after last week’s surge. Next resistance near $21.00.”
He gets it.
How would one invest in coffee/sugar to take advantage of a breakout? Any etf or stocks to trade if one doesnt invest in futures? Thanks