Comments On The CRB, Silver, and A Stock Doc IS Watching Closely
Kicking off this week with Doc and his comments on the CRB and silver charts. We look at the weekly then monthly charts to outline some technical factors to watch for when the next bounce might come. We also get Doc’s comments on Osisko Metals in which he is using as a barometer for the sector.
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Click here to visit the weekend show posting and listen to the update from Jeff Hussey in segment 6.
Your bearish outlook for the miners is premature and hopefully not based on another linear extrapolation…
When the 50 WMA crosses below the 100 WMA almost invariably the 50 and 100 WMA proceed to cross below the 200 WMA eventually. This is true in pretty much 99% of charts I have seen.
And even where the 50 WMA manages to cross back above the 100 WMA somehow instead of breaking below the 200 WMA, the next top tends to be a multiyear top and marks the beginning of a huge correction/bear market.
Either way, the miners probably aren’t going anywhere significantly higher for 1-2 years. Maybe the HUI manages to tag the 600 dma on the next bounce, but that will be a nice shorting opportunity.
It doesn’t mean the miners have to crash or anything, but there won’t be any sort of breakout for at least a year+. Same with silver–the 100 WMA is going to cross below the 200WMA before any sort of major low struck.
GCC hasn’t been weekly oversold in 2.5 years…
http://schrts.co/QLQzo2
All the more reason for it to finally take a breather (i.e., get smashed).
Nothing wrong with that.
At least short term, it does not look good versus gold:
http://schrts.co/Du98iP
It’s alright with me if gold takes a quick plunge below last month’s low. That would really take a toll on what’s left of the weak bulls and simultaneously embolden those looking who’ve been looking for much lower lows — a perfect recipe for a low.
It’s too bad the silver COT’s show record long positions for small specs (the dumbest of dumb money). No way silver goes anywhere until those positions are sold back down by small specs. Silver is going to break down here, IMO. And even if it bottoms in the next few weeks, it won’t be any slingshot rebound. It will be a grind higher for a year or more.
Don’t worry, that category will get cleaned out quickly as soon as there’s a downside surprise.
Whether gold starts moving next week or several months from now, the economic environment is clearly becoming increasingly gold-friendly…
$TNX:$UST2Y monthly:
http://schrts.co/PxeCva
That’s what they were saying in 1971 too. That didn’t preclude 1980-1999 from happening.
You’re funny; gold went up 25X between 1971 and 1980.
What I meant is that the bullish thesis has been alive and well since 1971. It was alive and well from 1980-2000 too. But that didn’t stop gold from stagnating for a couple of decades.
It’s still alive and well, but it’s going to be going sideways to down for likely far longer than anyone on this board believes.
In any event, the miners certainly aren’t running away. Even if a major low is struck in the next few weeks, they will be grinding sideways to higher for years yet. I don’t think anything of signficance happens until 2020.
If the HUI blows though the 600 dma and keeps going higher in the next few weeks, I’ll admit I was wrong. But I don’t think it will.
Gday Matthew
I hope all is well.
You’ve been quiet lately. As has the comments…doldrums before fireworks??
Down in Oz its been ok
not gangbusters but some are making new highs
And recently Aus gold has been on a downer too
Wondering if you ever looked into Orca Gold?
An Aus company (Resolute) has taken a 15% position in it
Cheers and Thanks
Chris
Hello Chris,
I’m not sure about fireworks but the sector will have its day. The sideways action of late is not as boring or meaningless as it might appear. Good times are coming and there’s a good chance that we’ll see some upside action not long after the fed’s meeting next week.
I haven’t looked into Orca Gold but it looks like it’s doing things right…
http://schrts.co/oCHFRd
Bonterra Resources drills 2.8m of 34g/t Au at Gladiator
2018-06-04 06:35 ET – News Release
Mr. Nav Dhaliwal reports
BONTERRA FURTHER EXTENDS THE GLADIATOR GOLD DEPOSIT TO THE WEST INTERSECTS 34.3 G/T AU OVER 2.8 M IN THE NORTH ZONE
Bonterra Resources Inc. has released the latest drilling results from the continuing resource development program at the Gladiator gold deposit, including an intersection of 34.3 grams per tonne gold over 2.8 metres, which further extended the south zone to the west by approximately 50 m. Positive assay results from 10 recent drill holes have extended the known dimensions of the mineralization in multiple zones westward and to surface at the Rivage Gap area. (Located in British Columbia)
I agree about commodities going down. A big part of it is oil, which seems likely to dip into the 50s, at least.
Still, I believe now is the time for long term transition from the general stock markets to commodities. After the next major low is in, the long-term trend reversal, if such it is, should be confirmed.
Maybe. Maybe not. You have been calling for such a turn for *years*. I guess at some point you will be right.
Yeah, I think I first called it two years ago but, as so often happens, it formed a lower low with highly bullish divergence in the indicators.
To be fair, I am talking about big picture, long term trend changes, the kind of trend change that long-term investors can catch and only have to make a change once a decade or two. On that time scale, making the transition two years ago will not look like bad timing, if I’m right. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’ve seen many charts very similar to this one, on all different time scales, lead to a significant move up.
The next test is to see if the .0681 low from earlier this year holds.
AMZN at new ATH. NASDAQ at or on the cusp of new ATH. Where are all the bears???
Fed is in charge, and ATH, will continue…….Too The Moon…….There are more gamblers now than ever before…..Remember there are 650million New Chinese middle class gamblers added in the last 15 yrs…………JMO
Chinese govt….can make all the newbies feel great, ….they can buy anything at any time…Chinese govt, makes loans to themselves, and can forgive their loans any time they want…….according to a report posted yesterday.
New game, new thought required…………..jmo
It’s pretty funny how I was mocked on this board for suggesting people go long AMZN at $1000, stating that it was headed to $2000.
Goes to show………most people do not know crap………
As I recall it Spanky, you were mocked for saying one thing and doing another.
Interesting how difficult that seems to be for you to understand.
You were urged, if you were so confident about Amazon and the general markets, to put your money where your mouth is. Did you? If you didn’t, then it’s pretty funny that you would even bring it up.
long QTNA
TO beat a dead horse, or to make myself clear…
SLV and GDX’s 50 WMA crossed below the 100 WMA in late 2017. When that happens, 9 times out of 10, the 50 and 100 WMAs will eventually cross below the 200 WMA.
For SLV, its 200 WMA hasn’t even flattened out after all these years. To me this very strongly suggests silver isn’t going anywhere over the next 6 months to 1 year except sideways to down as the 100 WMA will likely have to work its way below the 200 WMA before any sort of legitimate turn.
Short story is, it is never a good sign when the 50 WMA crosses below the 100 WMA (when they are both above the 200 WMA). And even in the rare instances where the 50 WMA manages to get back above the 100WMA (while both manage to stay above the 200 WMA), the subsequent high invariably marks a significant top.
If anyone has an example of a chart where the above is not true, I would like to see it.
yes, the Dow ($indu) was able to do this in 2016. But notice that price immediately jumped back above both the 50 and 100 WMA within weeks of the negative cross (and has subsequently stayed there for years). Nothing like that is playing out in SLV of GDX.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQVb0zHP1VA………more on British Free speech…..this is way to bazaar ……
Bix Weir on Silver and Silver Companies….in Mexico
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSUkkzcqepQ&feature=youtu.be
Some have figured , they do not need to work for peanuts……..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-05/job-openings-soar-all-time-high-67-million
long APHQF
long CLSN
GCC getting smashed today. There is definitely going to be follow through to the downside for at least a few weeks as the weekly stochastics head back down to oversold levels.
The miners are dead money for a couple of years IMO. They won’t be breaking the 600 dma for at least 1 more year. Sideways to down for now. The 100 WMA has to cross back below the 200 WMA before any sort of bottom, which just reinforces the notion of sideways to down for the next year or more.