A Warning Sign From The Yen And Shanghai Market
Sometimes we all get a little to focused on the US markets and data that we do not take into account what is happening around the world. Chris Temple joins me today to share a quick comment on the US markets but we then quickly shift focus to the appreciating Yen and big drop seen last week in the Shanghai market. I commend many of your who commented on the Yen’s moves recently.
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Palladium and Platinum within $5 of each other…….never seen that before….
SLV is getting capped by fork resistance at the moment:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p91320533123&a=572948841
There’s always a reason isn’t there? Miners are dead money until the day they aren’t. Based on this week’s action, I am still in the dead money camp. More weakness for GDXJ and SLV coming in relative and absolute terms. It may not start this week or next, but they are coming back down. to new lows.
Just let us all know when you’re a buyer so I can sell. Thanks.
I added in early January to my AXU and EXK, which is why we are down now and headed to lower lows despite USD falling apart and the yen rallying. It will be 2019 until we get another significant leg up, and I don’t expect to the 2016 high to be taken out permanently until 2020 or later.
The 2016 high will be taken out permanently this year. The first move above it will probably happen before this month is over.
I really hope you are right, but even if we break significantly above 2016 high this year, price is almost guaranteed to come back down to test that break out multiple times over a year or more before leaving it behind. Again, I really hope you are right. I am sure you will be right in the long run, but you have been way *way* too optimistic over the last 2 years.
Before this month is over? DO you live in Cali or Colorado because you are getting some primo primo stuff–like grade A.
Sorry, I was talking about gold above regarding the 2016 high. Yes, it could easily move above it this month.
As for being “way” too optimistic for the last two years, you are wrong with respect to price and only right with respect to timing since last fall. You need to pay more attention if you’re going to make claims.
Fyi, my bullishness after the December low was/is intermediate term bullishness based on that intermediate term low, so it has not been negated by the short term action since (although it did look like it was going to be).
I got the first half of ’17 generally right and was wrong about the second half. Regardless, I sold the heck out of all the strength we had in ’16 and my portfolio is still a multiple of what it was two years ago – despite the current action AND my significant hit with Primero.
Yes, gold could easily make a marginal new high here before it rolls over. The problem is the divergence with the miners over the last half year or so. When gold does top out on this daily cycle, the way things have been going, it could get ugly(er) for the miners.
The problem, spanky, is your lack of understanding.
No, I understand, that is my problem. The Fed owns a printing press. They are not audited. All other CBs own their own printing presses. With collusion and a bunch of nukes at their disposal, they can keep this game going a long long long time. They already have. When the US market fails, the Fed and US govt will fail. Good luck with that bet.
Who are we????You are down……some of us are….lucky apparently!!!!
I’m still up from 2016. Who cares?
Miners have been in a bear market for 2 years. Only idiots trade bear markets long.
Says the “we” who is down and buying more while calling it a bear……so who’s the idiot???
I’m not trading the miners. I fully expect to incur long term capital gains when it’s all said and done.
spanky, but if you expect such a large pullback, then just sell, and rebuy and screw the tax worries. You’ll save way more money dodging your waterfall declines down, and can repurchase at apparently much lower prices, and THEN ride them all back up.
Also, if you are NOT trading the miners, then why in the world are you obsessing on a daily basis over the ups and downs of the miners. Why don’t you just set it and forget it until 2020 and do something else with your time.
The reason most of us look at the charts each week is because we are in and out of the markets fairly regularly. There is hardly a week that goes by that I’m not trading one of the sectors, PMs, Base Metals, Specialty Metals, Lithium Uranium, Renewables, etc….
Based on 60 minute chart closes, the dollar already made a new low (one cent below the low of two weeks ago).
I agree with Chris’s comments about the stock market. The bulls don’t want it to go straight to a new high if they know what’s good for them. I also agree that it is about to turn down. If it doesn’t do so in a day or two, it will just make the outlook even worse.
Bankers know they will be lynched up if the stock market is allowed to enter a bear market. Therefore it won’t. Every CB in the world is buying S&P futures. They have infinite credit lines. Commodities will be basing out for another decade.
You don’t understand nature or the nature of markets and money.
No, it is you who do not understand. It’s called the biggest moral hazard ever created in the history of the world, and the US govt and Fed and most global central banks and governments are “all-in” times 1000. You are betting against national governments if you short the markets at this point. I’ll bet you would have shorted the Zimbabwe and Caracas stock markets too because of fundamentals.
I don;t have an issue with buying gold as a hedge, but shorting the US stock market expecting a decline in USD terms is delusional IMO.
I see. So my lack of understanding is the reason I was short the S&P 500 in August 2008 and doubled my money the following month? And your great understanding is the reason you’re in so much pain with your silver stocks? I suppose it is also the reason that I have smoked the stock market despite it being in one of the longest bull markets in history.
If so, you can keep your understanding all to yourself.
Delusional? I think you just rang the bell.
Are you calling a top?
Well are you?
As I said, everything changed in 2008. You literally have an express Fed put now. They have openly stated over and over again that nominal stock price gains are a goal of their monetary policy due to something they call the wealth effect.
The Fed and US govt backstopped the banks to the tune of $21 trillion in 2008-09. Do you really think the game ends here?
Haven’t we already been through this? I thought it was clear to you two weeks ago that I think this is the top. My only caveat is that a slight new high would be a possible part of this top.
No, it wasn’t clear, but thanks for the clarification. Are you short?
Yes, it was clear…
On February 5, 2018 at 3:15 pm,
spanky says:
And I will take this as you calling a top. If not, please clarify.
——
Per your instruction, my not clarifying confirmed your assumption.
Stock market looks bullish as can be. Your maximum downside risk at any time is less than 10%. The bankers know the lynch mob would be out for blood if the market declines any further. Hence, every last dime of liquidity will be pumped into the stock market. Don’t fight the fed. Or the SNB, or the BoJ, or the ECB, or the Bank of Israel, or the $trillion Norway sovereign wealth fund or the $trillion UAE sovereign wealth fund…
Sorry, but that is a typical herd (dumb money) assumption. How do you, of all people, know what the banksters plan on doing? I don’t know where you’ve been but similar claims are made at every major top.
Because this time really is different. The Fed and US govt stepped directly and overtly into the markets in 2008. They are more than “all-in” on this market. The SM fails when those institutions fails. Just an FYI, they have nukes and guns and a printing press, and a wee bit of inertia.
Lol….I thought it was only gold bugs who say this time it’s different!!!🤔
haha! Wolfster. Nah, it’s also the pot stocks, crypto crazies, and every biotech company that secretly believes “this time it is different”.
John McAfee sure believes bubbles and corrections are now mathematically impossible in Bitcoin and the cryptos. (boy he was sure wrong).
It is NEVER different this time. Even the Fed & US government buying won’t stop a real rolling correction in the markets. Did nobody notice the 13% dive down in the last 2 weeks? 🙂
$HUI coming back down below Tueday’s close within the next few weeks if not sooner. Yesterday’s action was nothing more than a sucker’s rally. Metals guaranteed to selloff hard going into late March FOMC.